Business
IMF relief sought on flood losses | The Express Tribune
ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan on Wednesday informed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that its economy suffered Rs744 billion in losses due to floods, with 60% of the damage occurring in the agriculture sector and again sought adjustment of these losses against the programme targets.
The preliminary damage assessment has been shared with the IMF, as Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb confirmed that the review talks concluded with the global lender on Wednesday. The talks were aimed at securing two loan tranches totalling around $1.2 billion under separate loan programmes.
Aurangzeb said that the IMF had shared the Memorandum for Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) and that the Staff-Level Agreement for completing the second review would be announced after further discussions. The MEFP is a set of policy documents agreed upon by both sides. “There has been a broader consensus with the IMF,” said the finance minister during an informal discussion outside the Q Block with journalists from two media outlets.
Sources said that towards the conclusion of the talks, discussions focused on adjusting the impact of the floods against the programme’s targets of primary budget surplus and provincial cash surplus. The finance ministry also briefed the prime minister in this regard, they added.
The IMF had set the primary budget surplus target at Rs3.1 trillion and had earlier indicated roughly Rs500 billion adjustments within the budget to offset the flood impact. Sources said that the finance ministry wanted the IMF to allow adjustments against the target to the extent of the actual damages.
According to preliminary findings shared with the IMF, the economy sustained Rs744 billion in losses. After adjusting these losses, the economic growth is now projected to remain at 3.5%, against the annual target of 4.2%. The revised growth projection is still about 1% higher than the World Bank’s recent projection of 2.6%, which also cited flood damage.
Of the Rs744 billion losses, Punjab bore Rs632 billion, according to initial assessments. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) reported Rs51.3 billion in losses, followed by Sindh with Rs32.2 billion, another Rs12.6 billion in K-P, and Rs6.8 billion in Balochistan.
Flooding in three rivers and flash rains in the country’s upper regions inundated large areas, forcing the evacuation of 6.5 million people.
The projected Rs744 billion losses are double the earlier Rs370 billion estimate shared with the IMF.
Details show the agriculture sector sustained Rs439 billion in losses, roughly 60% of the total. Almost all these were crop-related. As a result, agriculture growth is now projected at 3%, compared to the 4.5% target. Growth in the crops sub-sector is expected to fall below 1%, against the target of 5.4%. Crops on 3.3 million acres and 22,841 livestock were affected.
Roughly one-third of the cotton crop was destroyed, with output now projected at 7.2 million bales, a reduction of up to 3.4 million bales, as per preliminary estimates.
Authorities estimated that 12.6% of the rice crop was damaged, with expected production at 8.9 million tonnes, representing a loss of 600,000 to 1.2 million tonnes. Sugarcane production has been revised to 79 million tonnes, reflecting losses between 1.3 million and 3.3 million tonnes, or 4% of budget estimates. Maize production is projected to decline by 13%, with output capped at 9.2 million tonnes.
The industrial sector sustained Rs48 billion in losses, with its annual growth rate revised slightly down to 4.1%, according to the assessment.
The services sector is projected to have suffered the second-highest losses of Rs257 billion, reducing its growth forecast by 0.4% to 3.6%. Within services, the transport and storage subsector incurred the highest loss, Rs150 billion, cutting its growth rate almost by half to 1.9%. Real estate activities recorded Rs55 billion in losses, while wholesale and trade sectors lost Rs40 billion.
Preliminary assessments showed that 229,763 houses were damaged, 790 bridges destroyed, and 866 water infrastructure systems washed away. About 2,811 kilometres of roads were damaged.
In Punjab alone, 213,097 houses were damaged, followed by 6,370 in Balochistan, 3,332 in Sindh, 3,222 in K-P, 2,417 in Azad Kashmir, and 1,260 in Gilgit-Baltistan. In Punjab, 1,216 kilometres of roads and 462 bridges were destroyed, while 5,467 livestock perished.
A total of 1,037 deaths and 1,067 injuries were reported nationwide. The highest number of deaths, 509, occurred in K-P, followed by 322 in Punjab, 90 in Sindh, 38 each in Balochistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, 31 in Gilgit-Baltistan, and nine in Islamabad.
Floodwaters also affected eight mines and 1,297 commercial shops. About 2,267 educational institutions, 243 health facilities, and 129 public buildings were damaged. The floods disrupted normal life in 70 districts, affecting 6.5 million people, of whom four million were relocated to safer areas.
Business
Bessent says Argentina peso bet was ‘homerun deal’
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his risky US gamble on Argentina’s currency has paid off.
Bessent said American financial support had been repaid and the US no longer held any Argentine pesos in its exchange stabilisation fund.
The US had purchased the then-plunging currency last year in an effort to stave off further turmoil and boost the party of President Javier Milei, a key ally of President Donald Trump, in the run-up to national midterm elections.
The move sparked criticism from Democrats, who accused Bessent of risking taxpayer money on a country with a long history of financial turmoil.
In the end, Bessent said the manoeuvre had been a success.
“Stabilising a strong American ally – and making tens of millions in profit for Americans – is an America First homerun deal,” he wrote in an announcement on social media.
When the US moved to intervene in September, people were dumping the peso, mindful of the shocks they had experienced after previous elections and rattled by signs that Milei’s party might experience an upset in the mid-terms.
Bessent promised to do “what was needed” to stave off further drops in September. He announced a month later that the US had purchased pesos and agreed to extend a swap line to Argentina, allowing the country to exchange pesos for dollars.
The move helped to halt the falls in the currency, which saw further gains after Milei’s party clinched a landslide victory in the mid-term elections, though it has drifted lower more recently.
Argentina’s central bank said it settled the swap line in December. It ultimately traded just $2.5bn in pesos for dollars of a possible $20bn, according to a government report on deal.
The report said the US had also separately provided $872m in support involving reserves held at the IMF.
The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on that transaction.
“Getting your money back is a straight forward definition of a success,” said Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, even if he said tens of millions in profit was “small change” given the sums involved.
But he said big challenges continue to face the Argentine economy, given how much it spent last year from its reserves to prop up the currency.
“It’s been a short term success – Bessent got his money back,” he said. “I do remain worried that the Argentines are relying too heavily on the expectation that Secretary Bessent will ride to the rescue … and therefore aren’t showing enough urgency in their plans to rebuild their own reserves.”
Business
Housebuilders in focus as firms set to reveal figures amid sluggish market
Housebuilding giants will be centre stage next week as Persimmon, Vistry and Taylor Wimpey publish trading updates that are expected to offer a fresh snapshot of the UK housing market.
The updates will be closely watched by Government ministers, who have pledged to accelerate housebuilding, and by investors looking for signs of recovery and the Budget’s impact on the housing market as the UK heads into 2026.
Persimmon is due to publish a full-year trading statement on Tuesday, while Vistry will announce its fourth quarter trading statement on Wednesday and Taylor Wimpey a trading statement on Thursday.
UK housebuilding activity has remained in its deepest slump since the start of the pandemic, while the wider construction sector has been in contraction for a year, according to the latest S&P Global UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published on Wednesday.
The index rose slightly to 40.1 in December from 39.4 in November, remaining well below the 50-point level that signals growth, marking the 12th consecutive month of declining activity.
Survey respondents cited fragile confidence, weak demand and clients delaying decisions ahead of the autumn budget.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, said Persimmon “has been hamstrung by the wider factors over which it has little influence, including but not limited to a faltering domestic economy”.
However, Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighted that Persimmon’s homes are typically valued around 15% below the new-build national average, which “offers some resilience to ride current market challenges” and should provide some relief on building cost pressures.
Meanwhile Vistry, formerly Bovis Homes, has benefited from supportive government policy towards affordable housing, with average weekly sales rates rising by 11% between July and early November compared to the previous year, according to Hargreaves Lansdown.
On Friday, figures release by HMRC revealed UK house sales were 8% higher in November than a year earlier, with around 100,350 homes changing hands, an indication of some optimism in the market.
Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said: “With the budget done and dusted, uncertainty at least has been removed and those who put their moves on pause are returning to the market, encouraged by lower mortgage rates from some of the big lenders, with others expected to follow.
“As January progresses, well-priced homes continue to attract interest.”
Business
US job creation in 2025 slows to weakest since Covid
The number of jobs created in the US grew only modestly in December, as a weak year for the employment market in the world’s largest economy drew to a close.
Employers added 50,000 jobs in the final month of 2025, according to Labor Department data, which was fewer than expected. But the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%.
Job gains last year were the smallest since 2020, when the Covid pandemic led to widespread cuts.
Businesses have been operating in an environment marked by US President Donald Trump’s dramatic policy changes, including tariffs, an immigration crackdown and cuts to government spending.
The US economy has held up in the face of these shifts, growing at an annual rate of 4.3% over the three months to September.
But the expansion – driven by steady consumer spending and a growth in exports – has not been accompanied by significant job creation.
On average, the US added just 49,000 roles per month in 2025, down from an estimated gain of two million a month the year before.
The Labor Department said the US also added 76,000 fewer new positions in October and November than previously estimated.
Retailers and manufacturers were among the sectors reporting losses last month, which were offset by hiring at health care employers, bars and restaurants.
The data underscores the mixed dynamics facing job-seekers in the US, where hiring has cooled markedly over the last year but fears of mass layoffs have not materialised.
The US Federal Reserve central bank has responded to the slowdown by cutting its key lending rate in hopes of giving the economy a boost, despite concerns that inflation is still bubbling.
But the central bank is divided about how much lower borrowing costs should go.
Analysts said the latest figures – which showed the jobless rate recovering to the 4.4% level where it stood in September – would do little to resolve those debates.
“Today’s report confirms what we think has been evident for some time—the labor market is no longer working in favour of job seekers,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
But she added: “Until the data provide a clearer direction, a divided Fed is likely to stay that way. Lower rates are likely coming this year, but the markets may have to be patient.”
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