India’s cotton acreage, output may go up in next year: USDA

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected higher cotton sowing area and output in India. In its latest report, USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) has projected 3 per cent higher acreage and 7 per cent higher production in next season 2026-27, which begins on October 1. Higher acreage and production will be driven by expectations of stronger cotton demand, it said.

The USDA said in its report that India’s cotton area is estimated to increase to 11.5 million hectares, up 3 per cent from the previous year, while production is forecast at 25.2 million bales (480 pound or 220 kg), marking a 7 per cent rise. In Indian terms, this translates to around 32.3 million bales of 170 kg, or nearly 5.5 million tonnes.

USDA projects India’s cotton acreage to rise 3 per cent and production 7 per cent in 2026–27, supported by better yields and a normal monsoon.
Domestic consumption is expected to grow on stronger textile exports, while imports decline and exports soften.
Higher stocks and favourable cotton-polyester dynamics signal comfortable supply, despite rising input cost pressures.

The production increase is driven by a recovery from last season’s untimely rains and a projected improvement in yield to 477 kg per hectare, up 3 per cent year on year. A normal monsoon outlook and better crop conditions are expected to further support output.

On the demand side, India’s domestic mill consumption is projected to rise to 25.8 million bales, reflecting improved prospects for textile and apparel exports. Higher demand is also likely to be supported by recent trade agreements with the EU and the UK, which are expected to boost shipments of value-added products.

India’s cotton imports are estimated at 3 million bales, lower than the previous year, as improved domestic availability reduces reliance on overseas purchases. In contrast, exports are forecast to decline to 1.2 million bales, down from the previous year, due to tighter exportable surplus and a strategic shift towards higher-margin textile exports.

Total cotton supply is expected to increase to around 39.3 million bales in next marketing year, supported by higher production and elevated beginning stocks. Ending stocks are projected to rise further to 12.3 million bales, pushing the stock-to-use ratio to about 46 per cent, indicating comfortable availability in the domestic market.

At the same time, rising crude oil prices continue to influence the cotton economy by increasing input costs such as fertilisers and agrochemicals, while also raising polyester fibre prices and improving cotton’s relative competitiveness, the report said.

Overall, the outlook for India’s cotton sector in 2026–27 points to a recovery-driven expansion, with higher acreage, improved yields, and strong domestic demand shaping market dynamics, even as export competitiveness and cost pressures remain key concerns.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)