India’s FY26 GDP growth estimated at 7.5%: SBI

Despite global headwinds, the Indian economy has maintained strong growth momentum, according to a newsletter released by State Bank of India (SBI), which said high-frequency activity data indicates resilient economic activity, with minor decline in the fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal 2025-26 (FY26).

Rural consumption remains strong, driven by positive signals from farm and non-farm activity. Supported by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season, the newsletter noted.

Overall, it expects Q4 FY26 real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of closer to 7.2 per cent and nowcasts full year FY27 GDP growth rate of 6.6 per cent. FY26 GDP growth is likely to be at 7.5 per cent.

Despite global headwinds, India has maintained strong growth momentum, an SBI newsletter said.
Rural consumption remains strong and urban consumption shows a consistent uptick since the last festive season.
It expects Q4 FY26 real GDP growth of closer to 7.2 per cent and nowcasts FY27 GDP growth rate of 6.6 per cent.
FY26 GDP growth is likely to be at 7.5 per cent.

It is high time for the country to rededicate towards artificial intelligence-led productivity gains, competitiveness and global value chain integration, the newsletter mentioned.

With a consumption boost by the government through goods and services tax, credit continued to grow in the second half (H2) of FY26. The same trend is continuing now, and credit grew by 16 per cent as of April 30, 2026.

However, the credit growth is expected to remain robust during the H1 FY27 and will decline in H2 with high base effect. The full year, credit growth is expected at 13-14 per cent, as per the newsletter.

Domestic consumption is expected to hold GDP growth upwards, despite external crisis, especially the Middle East crisis.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)