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India’s GDP Projected To Grow 7.4% In FY26, RBI To Keep Rates Unchanged In Feb
New Delhi: India’s real GDP growth is projected at 7.4 per cent for FY26, up from 6.5 per cent in FY25, a report has said, highlighting seasonal pick up in electricity, mining and construction sectors. The report from ICRA said that growth is expected to ease below 7 per cent in H2 FY26 from 8 per cent in H1 because of an unfavourable base effect and moderation in exports.
The report expects a pause in the February 2026 policy review by the RBI, with future decisions to be guided by the FY27 Union Budget and evolving inflation-growth dynamics. Meanwhile, economic activity remained healthy in Q3 FY26, aided by GST rate‑cut led festive demand and seasonal upticks in some sectors.
ICRA expects consumption volumes of goods and services as well as manufacturing volumes to have benefited from GST cuts and festival demand in Q3, though the export drag may intensify in H2 unless a US trade deal materialises.
The firm forecasts CPI inflation to plunge to 2 per cent in FY26 from 4.6 per cent in FY25, with WPI at 0.4 per cent. CPI rose to 0.7 per cent in November 2025 from 0.3 per cent in October, due to a narrower deflation in food and beverages.
Additionally, mining and construction activity as well as electricity demand are set to witness a seasonal pick up in the coming months, after the easing owing to rainfall-related disruptions, it said. “Cement production is expected to grow 6.5–7.5 per cent in FY26. Steel demand growth may moderate to 7–8 per cent after strong previous years. Electricity demand growth is muted at 1.5–2 per cent for FY26,” the report noted.
It also flagged external risks including delay in the US-India trade deal, and global policy changes affecting service exports. Domestic risks encompass subdued export growth, monsoon variability, fiscal constraints, and inflationary pressures from commodity prices.
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SEBI proposes stricter base price and band rules for gold, silver ETFs, including cooling-off periods after sharp global price swings to curb volatility.
Amid Global Commodity Volatility, SEBI Plans New Price Band Rules for Gold, Silver ETFs
The market regulator has sought to curb extreme volatility in gold and silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by proposing changes to the base price and price band framework. Currently, there are no separate price bands for ETFs aligned with their underlying assets, making them vulnerable to sharp price movements.
The proposal comes after sharp volatility in gold and silver ETFs triggered by fluctuations in global commodity prices. On some days, these ETFs fell by over 15%, while on others, they recorded sharp gains.
Stock exchanges currently apply a fixed price band of plus or minus 20% on the base price of ETFs, except for Overnight ETFs investing only in TREPs, which have a price band of plus or minus 5%.
Moreover, the base price for applying price bands to ETFs is taken as the T-2 day closing Net Asset Value (NAV) by exchanges, instead of the T-1 day closing NAV or price, as is the case with indices and individual stocks. This creates a challenge, as the closing NAV of ETFs typically differs between T-1 and T-2 days. Corporate actions such as bonuses and dividends are adjusted manually, increasing the risk of errors.
What Are the Key Proposals?
SEBI has proposed that the base price be determined using either the closing price of the ETF on T-1 day (weighted average price of the last 30 minutes), the closing NAV of T-1 day, or the average indicative NAV (iNAV) of the last 30 minutes of T-1 day.
Further, the regulator has proposed an initial price band of plus or minus 10% for equity and debt ETFs, which can be flexed up to plus or minus 20%. A cooling-off period of 15 minutes will apply, and up to two flexes will be allowed in a day.
For gold and silver ETFs, the regulator has proposed an initial price band of plus or minus 6%, which can be flexed up to plus or minus 20%. This will also include a 15-minute cooling-off period.
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February 14, 2026, 16:08 IST
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Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) forwarded a summary to the federal government suggesting an increase of Rs4.39 per liter in petrol price for the next fortnight.
After approval from the federal government, one liter of petrol will be sold at Rs257.56 instead of Rs253.17 per liter.
The price of high-speed diesel (HSD) will be increased by Rs5.40 per liter.
After approval, the price of one liter of high-speed diesel will increase by Rs268.38 to Rs273.78.
The proposal to increase the price of kerosene by Rs4 per liter is also on the cards.
The OGRA also recommended increasing the price of one liter of light diesel by Rs6.55.
The new prices of petroleum products will be effective from February 16, 2026.
Due to tension between the USA and Iran, petroleum prices are likely to increase further.
The group, based in Solihull and Wolverhampton, says its vet bills are costing them more.
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