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India’s real GDP growth for Q1 FY27 projected at 6.6%: RBI
Real GDP growth for Q1 FY27 is projected at 6.6 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced.
The above normal southwest monsoon, lower inflation, rising capacity utilisation and congenial financial conditions continue to support domestic economic activity, he wrote. The supportive monetary, regulatory and fiscal policies including robust government capital expenditure, should also boost demand.
India’s real GDP growth for FY26 is projected at 6.5 per cent, with Q1 at 6.5 per cent, Q2 at 6.7 per cent, Q3 at 6.6 per cent and Q4 at 6.3 per cent, the central bank said.
Such growth for Q1 FY27 is projected at 6.6 per cent.
CPI inflation for FY26 is projected at 3.1 per cent, with Q2 at 2.1 per cent, Q3 at 3.1 per cent and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.
CPI inflation for Q1 FY27 is projected at 4.9 per cent.
Domestic growth is holding up and is broadly evolving along the lines of the central bank’s assessment even though some high-frequency indicators showed mixed signals in May-June, and the inflation outlook for fiscal 2025-26 has become more benign than expected in June, he wrote.
Rural consumption remains resilient, while urban consumption revival, especially discretionary spending, is tepid, he noted.
Fixed investment supported by buoyant government capital expenditure (capex) continues to support economic activity.
While the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) remained elevated in the first quarter (Q1) of FY26, the index of industrial production (IIP) showed moderation.
Prospects of external demand, however, remain uncertain amidst ongoing tariff announcements and trade negotiations, the RBI governor wrote. The headwinds emanating from prolonged geopolitical tensions, persisting global uncertainties, and volatility in global financial markets pose risks to the growth outlook.
Consumer price index (CPI)-based headline inflation declined for the eighth consecutive month to a 77-month low of 2.1 per cent in June.
Core inflation, which remained within a narrow range of 4.1-4.2 per cent during February-May, increased to 4.4 per cent in June.
CPI inflation, however, is likely to edge up above 4 per cent in Q4 FY26 and beyond, as unfavourable base effects and demand side factors from policy actions come into play, the central bank governor wrote.
Barring any major negative shock to input prices, core inflation is likely to remain moderately above 4 per cent during the year. Weather-related shocks pose risks to inflation outlook.
Considering all these factors, CPI inflation for FY26 is now projected at 3.1 per cent, with Q2 at 2.1 per cent, Q3 at 3.1 per cent and Q4 at 4.4 per cent. CPI inflation for Q1 FY27 is projected at 4.9 per cent.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)