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Interest rates could remain at 4% until 2026, economists say

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Interest rates could remain at 4% until 2026, economists say



UK interest rates are set to be held at 4% until 2026 as lingering concerns about the economy prompt policymakers to act cautiously, economists have said.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its latest decision on Thursday.

The central bank is widely expected to keep rates at 4% after cutting them from 4.25% in August.

Economists believe the MPC may avoid cutting rates at meetings in November and December, meaning the figure could be kept on hold until February.

This would be a setback for mortgage holders with millions still expected to refinance on to higher rates in the coming years.

Thomas Pugh, chief economist for auditing firm RSM UK, said: “It’s all but guaranteed that the Bank of England will hold interest rates at 4% at its meeting on Thursday.

“The committee will stick to its gradual and cautious guidance, as it continues to try to balance rising inflation with a weakening labour market.”

UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.8% in July, from 3.6% in June, meaning it remained at the highest level since January 2024.

This was largely driven by food and drink prices rising, while overall wage inflation has remained at 5%, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

Interest rates are used by the MPC to control inflation and bring it down to the 2% target.

The UK labour market has been stagnating with the unemployment rate remaining at a four-year high and job vacancies continuing to decline.

Philip Shaw, an economist for Investec, said he was expecting rates to be held at 4% until the end of the year, with the next cut in February.

He said recent economic data will be “unlikely to disperse the committee’s collective doubts over whether the inflationary coast is clear to resume easing” monetary policy by November.

Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said recent remarks from the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey indicated he was happy with the financial markets pricing in only a 40% chance of another rate cut this year.

“The late Budget will likely also encourage the MPC to wait until December at least before considering another cut,” they said.

“We expect little change to the MPC’s guidance from August, given the hawkish dataflow and MPC members’ comments suggest little reason or desire to change their position from early August.”

In August, policymakers emphasised future rate cuts will need to be made “gradually and carefully” amid uncertainty about the economic outlook.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to deliver her autumn Budget on November 26, and is widely expected to raise taxes to balance the books.



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SHANTI shields N-plants from safety oversight: Experts – The Times of India

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SHANTI shields N-plants from safety oversight: Experts – The Times of India


NEW DELHI: The new nuclear energy bill, which was passed in Rajya Sabha by voice vote after a four-hour discussion while rejecting many amendments moved by opposition to send it to a parliamentary panel for scrutiny, marks a decisive shift in India’s nuclear governance, embedding safety oversight in law across the lifecycle of an atomic plant, unlike the existing framework that relied largely on executive discretion and post-accident accountability.Sustainable Harnessing of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India (SHANTI) Bill will allow private participation in India’s tightly controlled civil nuclear sector as the country seeks to meet its clean energy goals by 2047. As opposition raised safety and liability concerns, officials said it establishes a statutory safety regime that ensures continuous compliance rather than reliance on one-time permissions. It seeks to provide for a “pragmatic civil liability regime for nuclear damage and confer statutory status to Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB)”.Officials said unlike the previous law – in which nuclear safety oversight was shaped largely by broad executive authority and administrative rules – SHANTI fundamentally recasts the framework by shifting to a “statutory, lifecycle-based regulatory regime”. Govt manages radiation risks and radioactive waste, but does not mandate separate safety authorisations or legally bind safety obligations to each phase of a nuclear plant’s life. AERB’s stage-wise consent process for construction, commissioning and operation existed only as an administrative practice. Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage (CLND) Act, 2010 further reinforced a post-accident approach by focusing on compensation and insurance rather than prevention.“These laws (Atomic Energy Act and CLND Act) treated safety primarily as a post-damage responsibility, rather than a proactive governance requirement,” said an official. SHANTI separates “permission to operate” from “permission to operate safely”, requiring both a licence and an independent safety authorisation. Any activity involving radiation exposure risk – including construction, operation, transport, storage, decommissioning, or waste management – will now require explicit safety approval.It also consolidates regulation, enforcement, civil liability and dispute resolution within a single statute, reducing legal complexity and compliance uncertainty. “It grants a clear statutory authority to AERB to inspect facilities, investigate incidents, issue binding directions, and suspend or cancel operations that do not meet safety standards. Regulatory action is no longer dependent on executive discretion. Accident prevention is significantly enhanced by legally recognising serious risk situations as nuclear incidents, even without actual damage,” said the official. Core functions such as fuel enrichment, spent-fuel reprocessing, and heavy water production will remain exclusively under Centre’s control.Anujesh Dwivedi, partner at Deloitte India, said continuing with the existing legal framework would make it difficult for nuclear energy to replace thermal power in the long run. “Over decades, India added only about 8GW of nuclear capacity. Scaling this up to 100GW by 2047- and potentially 300GW or more by 2070 – required major reforms, which these regulations seek to address,” he said.Meanwhile, PM Modi said passing of the bill marks a “transformational moment for our technology landscape”.



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American Airlines no longer lets basic economy flyers earn miles

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American Airlines no longer lets basic economy flyers earn miles


American Airlines

Grant Baldwin | Getty Images

American Airlines customers flying on basic economy fares will no longer earn frequent flyer miles or points toward elite status, the carrier said this week.

“We routinely evaluate our fare products to remain competitive in the marketplace. Customers who purchase a Basic Economy ticket on December 17, 2025 and beyond will not earn AAdvantage miles or Loyalty Points towards AAdvantage status,” it said. “Basic Economy customers will continue to receive one free personal item and one free carry-on bag, free snacks, soft drinks and in-flight entertainment.”

Elite loyalty members will still be eligible for first-class upgrades on domestic flights if they’re on basic economy tickets, an American spokeswoman told CNBC.

Basic economy tickets are airlines’ cheapest but most restrictive fares, rolled out across the industry over the past decade. Generally, they do not allow customers to change their tickets without fees or pick their seats in advance.

The move comes as airlines across the board have been chasing customers who are willing to spend more to fly. American has fallen behind large rivals Delta Air Lines and United Airlines in the post-Covid luxury travel boom.

Read more CNBC airline news

American’s change, posted earlier by X user JonNYC, follows a similar policy by competitor Delta Air Lines, which said travelers on its Delta Main Basic, or basic economy tickets, wouldn’t receive Delta SkyMiles.

United Airlines does allow its MileagePlus loyalty program members to earn miles on basic economy tickets, but it has a different limitation: Basic economy customers on most flights aren’t allowed to bring a carry-on bag.

American had the same restriction after it launched basic economy fares but backpedaled in 2018.

Southwest Airlines this year launched its first no-frills basic fares that stipulate those customers will board last and get a seat assignment at check-in and earn miles at a lower rate than more expensive fares.



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Space funding surge: India’s private space sector raises $150 million so far this fiscal, says INSPACe chief – The Times of India

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Space funding surge: India’s private space sector raises 0 million so far this fiscal, says INSPACe chief – The Times of India


India’s space industry has attracted $150 million in funding so far in the current financial year, marking the highest-ever fund mobilisation since the government opened up the sector to private participation in 2020, INSPACe Chairman Pawan Goenka said on Thursday, PTI reported.Speaking at the India Economic Forum in New Delhi, Goenka said the funding milestone had been reached earlier this week and total investments were expected to cross $200 million by the end of the financial year. “This year will see the highest funding ever for the space sector,” he said, adding that the expected inflows would be more than double what the sector raised in the previous fiscal.Goenka said investor interest in India’s space ecosystem had picked up sharply, driven by policy reforms and expanding commercial opportunities. He added that INSPACe, which acts as both promoter and regulator for private participation in the space sector, was working to sensitise investors about emerging opportunities across launch services, satellites and downstream applications.The INSPACe chairman said India’s space economy was currently valued at around $8 billion and was projected to grow to $44 billion by 2033.He noted that much of the demand for space start-ups was coming from government departments, which had earlier relied largely on ISRO for technological solutions. Goenka added that the private sector would need to play a larger role in developing space technologies for government use.He also said private companies should increasingly look at space start-ups for technology solutions relevant to their own business needs.



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