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Interest rates could remain at 4% until 2026, economists say

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Interest rates could remain at 4% until 2026, economists say



UK interest rates are set to be held at 4% until 2026 as lingering concerns about the economy prompt policymakers to act cautiously, economists have said.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its latest decision on Thursday.

The central bank is widely expected to keep rates at 4% after cutting them from 4.25% in August.

Economists believe the MPC may avoid cutting rates at meetings in November and December, meaning the figure could be kept on hold until February.

This would be a setback for mortgage holders with millions still expected to refinance on to higher rates in the coming years.

Thomas Pugh, chief economist for auditing firm RSM UK, said: “It’s all but guaranteed that the Bank of England will hold interest rates at 4% at its meeting on Thursday.

“The committee will stick to its gradual and cautious guidance, as it continues to try to balance rising inflation with a weakening labour market.”

UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.8% in July, from 3.6% in June, meaning it remained at the highest level since January 2024.

This was largely driven by food and drink prices rising, while overall wage inflation has remained at 5%, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

Interest rates are used by the MPC to control inflation and bring it down to the 2% target.

The UK labour market has been stagnating with the unemployment rate remaining at a four-year high and job vacancies continuing to decline.

Philip Shaw, an economist for Investec, said he was expecting rates to be held at 4% until the end of the year, with the next cut in February.

He said recent economic data will be “unlikely to disperse the committee’s collective doubts over whether the inflationary coast is clear to resume easing” monetary policy by November.

Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said recent remarks from the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey indicated he was happy with the financial markets pricing in only a 40% chance of another rate cut this year.

“The late Budget will likely also encourage the MPC to wait until December at least before considering another cut,” they said.

“We expect little change to the MPC’s guidance from August, given the hawkish dataflow and MPC members’ comments suggest little reason or desire to change their position from early August.”

In August, policymakers emphasised future rate cuts will need to be made “gradually and carefully” amid uncertainty about the economic outlook.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to deliver her autumn Budget on November 26, and is widely expected to raise taxes to balance the books.



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Asda boss rejects profiteering claims as petrol price tops 150p

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Asda boss rejects profiteering claims as petrol price tops 150p



Motorists are facing higher fuel prices ahead of Easter break due to the conflict in the Middle East, the RAC says.



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Hetero rolls out generic semaglutide exports to over 75 countries – The Times of India

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Hetero rolls out generic semaglutide exports to over 75 countries – The Times of India


Hyderabad: Pharma player Hetero on Friday said it has rolled out exports of its generic semaglutide injection portfolio as part of a multi-year plan to widen access to treatments for type 2 diabetes and obesity in more than 75 countries.The Hyderabad-based pharmaceutical company said initial rollouts are under way in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, with additional launches planned in other markets subject to regulatory approvals.The injectable therapies will be sold under the brand names Truglyx, Rolmodl and Moto G. Semaglutide belongs to the GLP-1 class of medicines, which are used in diabetes care and weight management.Hetero said the export launch is part of its broader strategy to improve access to advanced cardio-metabolic therapies, particularly in emerging markets.The company said the products will be offered in multi-dose disposable pen devices designed in line with innovator formats and will be available in several strengths, including 0.25 mg, 0.5 mg, 1 mg, 2 mg, 1.7 mg and 2.4 mg, allowing dosing flexibility for both diabetes and obesity treatment.Hetero said it is also awaiting approval from India’s Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation (CDSCO) after completing clinical trials in type 2 diabetes and obesity and plans an India launch after regulatory clearance.Hetero managing director Dr Vamsi Krishna Bandi said the company aims to provide high-quality, affordable generic semaglutide through a single global product platform backed by its manufacturing and development capabilities.He said Hetero would use its commercial networks across Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America to support supply and access. The Hyderabad-headquartered Hetero operates in more than 145 countries and employs over 30,000 people.



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India-US trade deal update: Piyush Goyal meets USTR Jamieson Greer, discusses next steps in BTA talks – The Times of India

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India-US trade deal update: Piyush Goyal meets USTR Jamieson Greer, discusses next steps in BTA talks – The Times of India


Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal on Friday met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and reviewed the next steps in negotiations for the proposed India-US bilateral trade agreement (BTA).The meeting took place on the sidelines of the 14th ministerial conference (MC14) of the World Trade Organisation in Yaounde, Cameroon, where both sides also exchanged views on issues related to the WTO agenda.“Had a very productive discussion with @USTradeRep Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of the WTO Ministerial Conference. Exchanged views on the #WTOMC14 agenda, next steps in the India-US BTA negotiations and explored ways to further deepen our economic cooperation and bilateral trade ties,” Goyal said in a social media post.The development comes amid ongoing efforts by both countries to finalise an interim trade pact. Last month, India and the US announced that they had finalised a framework for the first phase of the agreement, though it is yet to be signed.The two sides had earlier announced a trade deal on February 2, followed by a joint statement on February 7 outlining the contours of the agreement.As part of the framework, the US had agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. However, the tariff structure has since undergone changes after the US Supreme Court struck down sweeping tariffs imposed under earlier measures.Following the ruling, US President Donald Trump introduced a 10% tariff on all countries for a period of 150 days starting February 24.In view of these developments, a planned meeting between chief negotiators of India and the US — aimed at finalising the legal text of the agreement — has been postponed. The pact was earlier expected to be signed this month.An official had earlier said that the interim trade agreement would be signed once the new global tariff framework of the US is fully in place.



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