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Investor concerns over AI Capex returns may grow as Big Tech market leadership weakens: Jefferies

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Investor concerns over AI Capex returns may grow as Big Tech market leadership weakens: Jefferies


New Delhi: The trend of investors questioning returns from artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure is expected to grow in the coming quarters as the market leadership of Big Tech in the US stock market shows signs of breaking down, according to a report by Jefferies.

The report stated that its base case is that the market leadership of Big Tech in the US stock market is breaking down. It added that the trend of investors starting to question the returns from AI capex has only just started, and there is huge potential for these concerns to grow in the coming quarters.

Jefferies said, “GREED & fear’s base case is that the market leadership of Big Tech in the US stock market is breaking down. GREED & fear’s view is that the trend of investors starting to question the returns from AI capex has only just started. There is huge potential for these concerns to grow in coming quarters.”

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The report stated this because the share of the four major hyperscalers and Nvidia as a percentage of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation has declined from a record high of 27.4 per cent on 3 November 2025 to 24.7 per cent.

The report stated that this percentage could fall further. However, these five companies still account for an estimated 41 per cent of the gains in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2023, when the AI thematic entered the US stock market.

The report noted that while this may be a key issue for the overall American stock market trend, the real financial risks lie in companies that have relied on borrowing to fund AI capex and related data centre expansion.

The report also added that it had refrained from calling AI a bubble in the past three years because most of the capex was funded by cash. However, this is now changing with the growing involvement of private credit in funding AI capex.

There are already more than USD 200 bn of outstanding private credit loans to AI-related companies, which could rise to USD 300-600 bn by 2030, according to a recent study by the Bank for International Settlements.

Jefferies warned that the related surge in securitisation of data centre financing may not have a happy ending. Estimates suggest that annual data centre securitisation issuance could reach USD 30-40 bn in both 2026 and 2027, up from about USD 27bn in 2025.

A major recent concern in AI revolves around the massive capital expenditure plans of Big Tech companies. In 2026, firms such as Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta and Microsoft are projected to collectively spend around USD 650-700 billion, mostly on data centres, chips and AI build-outs, in an intense race for dominance.

This unprecedented surge in spending has sparked investor worries about cash flow strain, potential negative free cash flow, margin pressure and uncertain returns on investment, leading to stock sell-offs and fears of overcapacity or an AI bubble reminiscent of past technology hype cycles.



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Oil nears highest price since start of Iran war

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Oil nears highest price since start of Iran war



The US-Israel Iran war has halted almost all traffic in a key waterway and the price Brent crude has surged.



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Crunch talks between resident doctors and ministers set to continue

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Crunch talks between resident doctors and ministers set to continue



Crunch talks between resident doctors and the Government are set to continue in a bid to avert strike action.

Sir Keir Starmer has given the resident doctors committee of the British Medical Association (BMA) a deadline to reconsider a deal on pay and jobs which includes an offer of thousands of extra NHS training posts.

It is understood the proposal will be removed from the deal if resident doctors in England press ahead with a six-day strike from April 7 in a row over jobs and pay.

Dr Jack Fletcher, chairman of the resident doctors committee of the union, said: “It is wrong for Government to withhold desperately-needed jobs as part of negotiating tactics.

“Anyone who works in the NHS knows that patients need these 4,000 jobs created as soon as possible.

“We made that very clear to Government in our meetings today.

“We are not interested in arbitrary deadlines – we will be looking to get this dispute ended right up to the last minute.

“We believe there is a deal there to be done if Government is willing to withdraw the changes it made at the last minute that reduced the funding for pay rises. Talks continue.”

It comes as senior medics announced they were escalating their disputes with the Government.

Consultants and other senior doctors are to be balloted on industrial action after ministers announced they would be getting a 3.5% pay award.

Simultaneous ballots of consultants and specialist, associate specialist and specialty (SAS) doctors will run from May 11 until July 6.

Addressing resident doctors, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer wrote in The Times: “The truth is this: no-one benefits from rejecting this deal.

“Resident doctors will be worse off. Instead of improved pay, progression and support, they will receive the standard pay award this year, with none of the reforms that would have strengthened their working lives.”

The deal sets out a minimum of 4,000 new additional specialty posts to be delivered over the next three years.

NHS England boss Sir Jim Mackey confirmed the offer to expand training places will “come off the table” if an agreement is not reached.

The walkout, which is due to run from 7am on April 7 until 6.59am on April 13, will be the 15th round of strikes by resident doctors in England since 2023.

In a letter to health leaders, Mike Prentice, national director for emergency planning at NHS England, wrote: “We expect this round to be challenging as there is a shorter notice period, bank holidays within the notice period and the action itself falling during the Easter holidays.

“This will represent a significant strain on staffing resources to provide safe cover.”



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Iran oil returns: India set to receive first cargo in 5 years, tanker heads to Gujarat – The Times of India

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Iran oil returns: India set to receive first cargo in 5 years, tanker heads to Gujarat – The Times of India


India is set to receive its first shipment of Iranian crude oil since 2019, with a tanker carrying 600,000 barrels of oil en route to Gujarat following a temporary sanctions waiver by the US, according to PTI.Ship-tracking data indicates that the vessel Ping Shun is headed towards Vadinar port, marking a potential revival of Indo-Iran oil trade after nearly five years.“The Indo-Iranian oil trade has flickered back to life. Following the US administration’s decision to grant a 30-day window for Iranian oil “on the water” due to regional conflict, the vessel Ping Shun is now en route to Vadinar (in Gujarat) with 600,000 barrels of crude. This is the first such delivery since May 2019 and comes at a critical time for Indian refiners facing tightening inventories,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modelling at Kpler.The development follows Washington’s decision earlier this month to allow a 30-day window for the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea, aimed at easing global oil prices amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran. The window is set to expire on April 19.While the buyer of the cargo remains unidentified, Vadinar houses a 20 million tonnes per annum refinery operated by Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy and also serves as a landing point for crude supplies to inland refineries such as BPCL’s Bina unit.India’s oil ministry has so far maintained that any decision to resume imports from Iran will depend on techno-commercial viability.Before sanctions were tightened in 2018, India was among the largest buyers of Iranian crude, importing both Iran Light and Iran Heavy grades due to refinery compatibility and favourable pricing terms.Imports ceased in May 2019 after US sanctions were reimposed, with India shifting to alternative suppliers including the Middle East and the US. At its peak, Iranian crude accounted for 11.5 per cent of India’s total imports.India had imported about 518,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil in 2018, which declined to 268,000 bpd between January and May 2019 during a sanctions waiver period before dropping to zero thereafter.“The Aframax Ping Shun (IMO 9231901) loaded with Iranian crude oil from Kharg Island in early March has emerged as the first vessel observed signalling a destination of Vadinar, India since May 2019, following sanction reimposition on Iranian oil by the first Trump administration,” Ritolia said.The tanker is estimated to have loaded around 600,000 barrels from Kharg Island around March 4 and is expected to reach Vadinar on April 4.An estimated 95 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently stored on vessels at sea, of which around 51 million barrels could be supplied to India, while the rest may be directed to China and Southeast Asian markets.However, payment mechanisms remain uncertain as Iran continues to be excluded from the SWIFT global banking system, complicating international transactions.Earlier, payments were routed in euros through Turkish banks, but that channel is no longer available following renewed sanctions restrictions.Iran was first disconnected from SWIFT in 2012 due to EU sanctions over its nuclear programme, with further disruptions in 2018 after the US reimposed sanctions, limiting its ability to receive payments and access foreign currency reserves.



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