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Jobs data may jolt stocks from holiday calm | The Express Tribune

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Jobs data may jolt stocks from holiday calm | The Express Tribune


As 2026 kicks off, investors await key statistics, court decision on Trump’s tariffs


NEW YORK:

The first full trading week of the new year could shake the US stock market out of its winter holiday slumber as the monthly jobs data headlines a busy start to 2026 for investors.

Stocks slid in the final session of 2025, with the benchmark S&P 500 falling into a monthly loss for December. But the index still climbed more than 16% in 2025, its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains, while the Cboe Volatility index was last just above its lows for the year. Trading volumes were thin at the end of 2025, but the new year could get off to an eventful start. Aside from economic data, investors await a US Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump’s tariffs along with his choice of a new Federal Reserve chair, and US corporate earnings season is around the corner.

In the first session of 2026 on Friday, the S&P 500 posted a slim gain as semiconductor shares rallied.

While the S&P 500 is near record highs, it is also around the same level it was in late October, noted Matthew Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak. “The market is looking for direction,” Maley said. “We break out of these ranges and that’s going to give either people a lot of confidence or a lot of concern depending on which way it breaks.”

Jobs data could send rate signals

The employment data due on January 9 could provide a jolt either way. Concerns over weakness in the labour market prompted the Fed to lower interest rates at each of its last three meetings of 2025, as the US central bank juggles its goals of full employment and contained inflation.

Lower rates have supported equities, but the extent of further cuts in 2026 is unclear. Fed officials were divided over the path for monetary policy at the most recent meeting in December. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% annual target. With the benchmark rate at 3.5-3.75%, Fed funds futures suggest little chance of a cut at the next meeting in late January, but nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction in March.

“The fact that there has been softening in the labour market has really given the Fed good cover to change their outlook about reducing rates,” said Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer at North Star Investment Management in Chicago.

At the same time, investors are also wary that an overly weak report could signal more severe economic concern than markets currently anticipate.

Employment for December is expected to have climbed by 55,000 jobs, according to a Reuters’ poll. Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, but the unemployment rate was 4.6%, a more than four-year high.

“If (employment) starts turning down in any kind of meaningful way, that’s going to signal that the recession is a lot closer than people think,” Maley said.

Inflation, Q4 earnings also loom

Other data next week includes manufacturing and services sector activity, along with job openings and other labour market data. Economic data releases are returning to more normal schedules following the 43-day government shutdown that delayed or canceled many key reports.

A closely watched report on inflation trends, the monthly US consumer price index, is due out on January 13.

“Anything that has to do with underlying economic activity and inflation is really going to catch the market’s attention,” said Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, adding that a backdrop of modest economic growth and moderating inflation is “a good environment for stocks and for risk assets in general.”

Investors will be gearing up for fourth-quarter earnings season, with results from JPMorgan on January 13, along with other major bank reports that week.

With stocks trading at historically lofty valuations, investors are banking on strong earnings growth. Overall S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have climbed 13% in 2025, with another 15.5% rise in 2026, according to LSEG IBES data. “To make an investment case for the S&P 500 at current levels, one must believe in some combination of good/very good earnings growth and continued investor confidence in economic conditions and macro policy,” said Nicholas Colas, Co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a research note.



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Will This Years Budget Be Presented On Sunday? CCPA Proposes February 1 Date For Union Budget 2026

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Will This Years Budget Be Presented On Sunday? CCPA Proposes February 1 Date For Union Budget 2026


New Delhi: The Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs (CCPA) on Wednesday proposed presenting the Union Budget for 2026–27 on February 1, even though the date falls on a Sunday. 

If approved, this would mark a rare instance in recent years of the Budget being tabled on a weekend, as the government sticks to its February 1 timeline to ensure timely implementation of budget proposals from the start of the financial year, as per media reports.

The Budget Session will begin on January 28 with the President’s address to a joint sitting of both Houses of Parliament. The Economic Survey, which reviews the state of the economy, will be tabled in Parliament on January 29, according to reports.

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be presenting her ninth consecutive Union Budget, making it the 88th Budget since India’s Independence. Since 2017, the Union Budget has been presented at 11 am on February 1, after the government advanced the date from the earlier tradition of February 28.

This change was introduced during the tenure of former finance minister late Arun Jaitley to allow faster implementation of budget proposals from the start of the financial year.

Presenting the Budget on a weekend is not entirely new. Sitharaman had presented the Union Budget 2025 on a Saturday.

Before that, late Arun Jaitley presented the Union Budgets of 2015 and 2016 on February 28, which also fell on Saturdays.

With this Budget, Sitharaman will also make history by becoming the first finance minister to present nine consecutive Union Budgets. This achievement places her close to the record held by former Prime Minister Morarji Desai, who presented a total of 10 Budgets across two separate tenures.

Among other recent finance ministers, P Chidambaram presented nine Budgets, while Pranab Mukherjee presented eight during their time in office.

FM Sitharaman was appointed India’s first full-time woman finance minister in 2019 after Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to power for a second term.

Finance Minister Sitharaman continued to hold the finance portfolio after the Modi-led government secured a third consecutive term in 2024.



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Trump calls for US military spending to rise more than 50% to $1.5tn

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Trump calls for US military spending to rise more than 50% to .5tn


President Donald Trump has called for US defence spending to be increased to $1.5tn (£1.1tn) in 2027 for what he called “these very troubled and dangerous times”.

That would be more than 50% higher than this year’s $901bn budget, which was approved by Congress in December.

“This will allow us to build the “Dream Military” that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe,” Trump said on social media on Wednesday.

In separate posts, the president said he would crack down on payouts to bosses and shareholders of major US defence contractors unless the firms speed up deliveries of armaments and build new manufacturing plants.

Shares in major US defence equipment makers Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon rose by more than 5% in extended trading in New York trade after Trump made the announcements.

Economists have previously warned that the gap between US spending and its income has reached unsustainable levels.

But Trump said Washington can “easily hit” his proposed $1.5tn defence budget thanks to money being brought in by tariffs.

Trump has been pushing for higher defence spending by the US and its allies since his first term in the White House.

He said in another post on Wednesday that military equipment is not being made quickly enough and urged companies to build new and modern plants.

Defence companies are issuing “massive” payouts to shareholders and stock buybacks at the expense of investing into production, Trump said. He also criticised the “exorbitant” pay packages of executives at arms manufacturers.

“No Executive should be allowed to make in excess of $5 Million Dollars which, as high as it sounds, is a mere fraction of what they are making now.”

In a separate post, Trump singled out Raytheon, saying it was the “least responsive” to America’s defence needs and the slowest to increase production.

“Either Raytheon steps up and starts investing in more upfront Investment like Plants and Equipment, or they will no longer be doing business with the Department of War,” Trump wrote in a separate post.

The BBC has contacted Raytheon for comment.

Trump’s call for much higher defence spending comes as geo-political tensions have increased around the world.

On Wednesday, the US military captured a Russian-flagged oil tanker suspected to have violated US sanctions.

It came after US forces seized Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro at the weekend and took him to America to face drug trafficking charges.

In December, China held military drills around Taiwan simulating the seizure and blockade of the island’s key areas, as a warning against “separatist forces”.

Taiwan’s push to ramp up its defence this year has also angered Beijing, which claims the self-ruled island as its territory.



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Don’t Underestimate India: How The World’s Fastest-Rising Economy Left UK & Japan Behind

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Don’t Underestimate India: How The World’s Fastest-Rising Economy Left UK & Japan Behind


New Delhi: India’s economy is continuing its rapid ascent on the global stage. According to Goldman Sachs, the country’s economic expansion is expected to remain stable in the fiscal year 2027. The investment bank projects India’s real GDP growth at 6.8 percent in FY27, slightly down from 7.3 percent in FY26.

The global brokerage firm highlighted that policy measures supporting domestic demand have strengthened the economy. In 2025, India offered income tax relief, simplified the Goods and Services Tax (GST), focussed on increasing liquidity and the Reserve Bank of India cut the repo rate by a total of 125 basis points to encourage consumption.

India Surpasses The UK In 2021

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In 2021, India surpassed the United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth-largest economy, a milestone that reflected decades of steady growth. In the last 25 years, the country grew on average 6.4 percent a year, a bit less than China’s 8 percent.

However, in recent years, India has been catching up fast. Last year, it moved past Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Other Forecasts And Projections

In a report released last Friday, SBI Mutual Fund projected that India’s nominal GDP growth for FY26-27 could reach around 11 percent, while real GDP growth may rise to approximately 7.2 percent.

The report said continued policy reforms and the growing demand for higher-quality and premium products among Indian consumers are expected to support economic expansion.

Global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions could pose challenges, the report added. Separately, Indian Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) estimated on Tuesday that India’s economy may grow by 6.9 percent in FY27, slightly lower than the projected 7.4 percent growth for FY26.



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