Business
Jobs data may jolt stocks from holiday calm | The Express Tribune
As 2026 kicks off, investors await key statistics, court decision on Trump’s tariffs
NEW YORK:
The first full trading week of the new year could shake the US stock market out of its winter holiday slumber as the monthly jobs data headlines a busy start to 2026 for investors.
Stocks slid in the final session of 2025, with the benchmark S&P 500 falling into a monthly loss for December. But the index still climbed more than 16% in 2025, its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains, while the Cboe Volatility index was last just above its lows for the year. Trading volumes were thin at the end of 2025, but the new year could get off to an eventful start. Aside from economic data, investors await a US Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump’s tariffs along with his choice of a new Federal Reserve chair, and US corporate earnings season is around the corner.
In the first session of 2026 on Friday, the S&P 500 posted a slim gain as semiconductor shares rallied.
While the S&P 500 is near record highs, it is also around the same level it was in late October, noted Matthew Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak. “The market is looking for direction,” Maley said. “We break out of these ranges and that’s going to give either people a lot of confidence or a lot of concern depending on which way it breaks.”
Jobs data could send rate signals
The employment data due on January 9 could provide a jolt either way. Concerns over weakness in the labour market prompted the Fed to lower interest rates at each of its last three meetings of 2025, as the US central bank juggles its goals of full employment and contained inflation.
Lower rates have supported equities, but the extent of further cuts in 2026 is unclear. Fed officials were divided over the path for monetary policy at the most recent meeting in December. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% annual target. With the benchmark rate at 3.5-3.75%, Fed funds futures suggest little chance of a cut at the next meeting in late January, but nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction in March.
“The fact that there has been softening in the labour market has really given the Fed good cover to change their outlook about reducing rates,” said Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer at North Star Investment Management in Chicago.
At the same time, investors are also wary that an overly weak report could signal more severe economic concern than markets currently anticipate.
Employment for December is expected to have climbed by 55,000 jobs, according to a Reuters’ poll. Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, but the unemployment rate was 4.6%, a more than four-year high.
“If (employment) starts turning down in any kind of meaningful way, that’s going to signal that the recession is a lot closer than people think,” Maley said.
Inflation, Q4 earnings also loom
Other data next week includes manufacturing and services sector activity, along with job openings and other labour market data. Economic data releases are returning to more normal schedules following the 43-day government shutdown that delayed or canceled many key reports.
A closely watched report on inflation trends, the monthly US consumer price index, is due out on January 13.
“Anything that has to do with underlying economic activity and inflation is really going to catch the market’s attention,” said Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, adding that a backdrop of modest economic growth and moderating inflation is “a good environment for stocks and for risk assets in general.”
Investors will be gearing up for fourth-quarter earnings season, with results from JPMorgan on January 13, along with other major bank reports that week.
With stocks trading at historically lofty valuations, investors are banking on strong earnings growth. Overall S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have climbed 13% in 2025, with another 15.5% rise in 2026, according to LSEG IBES data. “To make an investment case for the S&P 500 at current levels, one must believe in some combination of good/very good earnings growth and continued investor confidence in economic conditions and macro policy,” said Nicholas Colas, Co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a research note.
Business
‘Buy America’ to ‘bye America’: Why investors are looking beyond US stocks – The Times of India
US investors are increasingly moving money out of domestic equities and into overseas markets, signalling a shift away from the long-dominant “buy America” trade as returns from Big Tech moderate and global markets outperform.Data from LSEG/Lipper shows US-domiciled investors have withdrawn about $75 billion from US equity products over the past six months, including $52 billion since the start of 2026 — the largest outflow in the first eight weeks of a year since at least 2010, news agency Reuters reported.The trend reflects growing diversification by American investors, even as a weaker dollar makes overseas investments more expensive. Analysts say the shift mirrors earlier moves by global investors who had already begun reducing exposure to US assets.Since the global financial crisis in 2009, strong economic growth and technology-sector dominance helped US equities deliver outsized gains, reinforcing the “buy America” investment strategy. More recently, the artificial intelligence boom pushed the S&P 500 to record highs last year, cushioning markets despite policy uncertainty linked to President Donald Trump’s trade and diplomatic approach.
Investors look beyond US tech dominance
Rising concerns over AI-related risks and elevated valuations of megacap technology stocks have prompted investors to reassess opportunities abroad. Bank of America’s February fund manager survey showed investors rotating from US equities into emerging markets at the fastest pace in five years.“I’ve had lots of conversations with our wealth business in the U.S. this year,” said Gerry Fowler, UBS’s head of European equity strategy and global derivatives strategy. “They’re all talking about investing more offshore because at the end of the year, they looked at the performance of foreign markets in dollars and they’re like, wow, I’m missing out.”So far this year, US investors have invested about $26 billion into emerging-market equities, with South Korea attracting $2.8 billion and Brazil $1.2 billion, according to LSEG/Lipper data.The dollar has declined roughly 10% against a basket of currencies since last January, partly reflecting policy developments under the Trump administration. While this raises the cost of overseas investments, stronger foreign market performance can enhance dollar-denominated returns.Over the past 12 months, the S&P 500 has gained around 14%, compared with a 43% rise in Tokyo’s Nikkei index, a 26% jump in Europe’s STOXX 600, a 23% return from Shanghai’s CSI 300 and a doubling in South Korea’s KOSPI index.
Valuation gap drives global rotation
Investors are increasingly rotating away from high-growth technology stocks towards industrial and defensive sectors, which are more prominent in markets such as Germany, the UK, Switzerland and Japan.Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen, told Reuters that the shift reflects a broader reassessment of valuations. “Increasingly we are seeing U.S. investors look at the global landscape from a valuation perspective,” she said, highlighting cyclical growth momentum in Europe and Japan.European banking stocks surged 67% last year and have risen another 4% so far in 2026, illustrating renewed interest in cyclical sectors.US equities continue to trade at higher valuations, with the S&P 500 valued at roughly 21.8 times expected earnings, compared with about 15 times in Europe, 17 times in Japan and 13.5 times in China.Kevin Thozet, portfolio adviser at Carmignac, said flows of US capital into Europe have accelerated since mid-2025. Since Trump’s inauguration last January, US investors have channelled nearly $7 billion into European equity funds, reversing earlier outflows recorded during his first term.“If I’m taking a very long-term view, it’s, maybe, this idea of a great global rotation,” Thozet said.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Business
Haryana Govt bars IDFC First Bank, AU Small Finance Bank over alleged Rs 590 crore fraud
New Delhi: The Haryana Government on Sunday de-empanelled IDFC First Bank and AU Small Finance Bank from handling government business with immediate effect after an alleged fraud of around Rs 590 crore came to light.
In an official circular, the state government said both banks have been barred from carrying out any government-related transactions in Haryana until further orders.
It directed all departments, boards, corporations and public sector undertakings to stop using these banks for deposits, investments or any other financial dealings.
Authorities have also been asked to immediately transfer existing balances and close accounts maintained with the two lenders.
The Finance Department pointed out lapses in following fixed deposit instructions. It noted that in some cases, funds that were supposed to be placed in flexible deposits or higher-interest fixed deposit schemes were allegedly kept in savings accounts, leading to lower returns and financial loss to the state.
Departments have been instructed to strictly follow approved deposit terms, regularly verify compliance by banks, conduct monthly reconciliations and report any discrepancies.
All reconciliations must be completed by March 31, 2026, and a certified compliance report has to be submitted by April 4, 2026.
The action comes after IDFC First Bank disclosed in a regulatory filing that it had detected a fraud of about Rs 590 crore involving certain Haryana government-linked accounts operated through its Chandigarh branch.
The bank said there were prima facie unauthorised and fraudulent activities carried out by some employees at the branch, possibly involving other individuals or entities.
According to the bank, the issue surfaced when a Haryana government department requested closure and transfer of its account balance to another bank.
During the process, discrepancies were found between the amount mentioned and the actual balance in the account.
Similar discrepancies were later identified in other government-linked accounts from February 18 onwards.
IDFC First Bank clarified that its preliminary internal review suggests the matter is limited to a specific group of Haryana government-linked accounts handled by the Chandigarh branch and does not affect other customers.
The total amount under reconciliation across the identified accounts is estimated at around Rs 590 crore, and the final figure will be determined after further validation and possible recoveries.
Four bank officials have been suspended pending investigation. The bank said it will take strict disciplinary, civil and criminal action against those found responsible.
It has also issued recall requests to certain beneficiary banks to lien-mark balances in suspicious accounts as part of recovery efforts. The statutory auditors have been informed and an independent external agency will carry out a forensic audit.
Business
US airlines warn of disruption as DHS suspends PreCheck, Global Entry during shutdown – The Times of India
Major US airlines have expressed concern over travel disruptions after the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) decided to temporarily suspend its PreCheck and Global Entry programmes amid an ongoing government shutdown.The suspension will take effect from 6 a.m. ET (1100 GMT) on Sunday, days after a partial shutdown began following the failure of Republicans and Democrats to reach an agreement on immigration enforcement reforms, news agency Reuters reported.Airlines said travellers received very little advance warning about the move, leaving many with limited time to adjust their travel plans. “Airlines for America is deeply concerned that … the traveling public will be, once again, used as a political football amid another government shutdown,” Chief Executive Chris Sununu said, urging Congress to “get a deal done.”Sununu added that a similar shutdown last fall caused losses of $6.1 billion across the travel industry and related sectors.Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said airport and border agencies would prioritise general passenger movement while suspending “courtesy and special privilege escorts.”“We are making tough but necessary workforce and resource decisions to mitigate the damage,” she said in a DHS statement.The suspension forms part of emergency steps taken by DHS to redirect staffing resources after Congress failed to approve additional funding, according to a Washington Post report.The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said the PreCheck programme had more than 20 million active members in 2024, while total vetted travellers across DHS programmes, including Global Entry, exceeded 40 million.PreCheck allows approved passengers to use dedicated fast-track security lanes at US airports, while Global Entry expedites customs and immigration clearance for pre-approved, low-risk international travellers entering the United States.The move follows orders from the Trump administration last week directing the Federal Emergency Management Agency to suspend deployment of aid workers to disaster-affected areas during the shutdown.
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