Business
Jobs data may jolt stocks from holiday calm | The Express Tribune
As 2026 kicks off, investors await key statistics, court decision on Trump’s tariffs
NEW YORK:
The first full trading week of the new year could shake the US stock market out of its winter holiday slumber as the monthly jobs data headlines a busy start to 2026 for investors.
Stocks slid in the final session of 2025, with the benchmark S&P 500 falling into a monthly loss for December. But the index still climbed more than 16% in 2025, its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains, while the Cboe Volatility index was last just above its lows for the year. Trading volumes were thin at the end of 2025, but the new year could get off to an eventful start. Aside from economic data, investors await a US Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump’s tariffs along with his choice of a new Federal Reserve chair, and US corporate earnings season is around the corner.
In the first session of 2026 on Friday, the S&P 500 posted a slim gain as semiconductor shares rallied.
While the S&P 500 is near record highs, it is also around the same level it was in late October, noted Matthew Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak. “The market is looking for direction,” Maley said. “We break out of these ranges and that’s going to give either people a lot of confidence or a lot of concern depending on which way it breaks.”
Jobs data could send rate signals
The employment data due on January 9 could provide a jolt either way. Concerns over weakness in the labour market prompted the Fed to lower interest rates at each of its last three meetings of 2025, as the US central bank juggles its goals of full employment and contained inflation.
Lower rates have supported equities, but the extent of further cuts in 2026 is unclear. Fed officials were divided over the path for monetary policy at the most recent meeting in December. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% annual target. With the benchmark rate at 3.5-3.75%, Fed funds futures suggest little chance of a cut at the next meeting in late January, but nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction in March.
“The fact that there has been softening in the labour market has really given the Fed good cover to change their outlook about reducing rates,” said Eric Kuby, Chief Investment Officer at North Star Investment Management in Chicago.
At the same time, investors are also wary that an overly weak report could signal more severe economic concern than markets currently anticipate.
Employment for December is expected to have climbed by 55,000 jobs, according to a Reuters’ poll. Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, but the unemployment rate was 4.6%, a more than four-year high.
“If (employment) starts turning down in any kind of meaningful way, that’s going to signal that the recession is a lot closer than people think,” Maley said.
Inflation, Q4 earnings also loom
Other data next week includes manufacturing and services sector activity, along with job openings and other labour market data. Economic data releases are returning to more normal schedules following the 43-day government shutdown that delayed or canceled many key reports.
A closely watched report on inflation trends, the monthly US consumer price index, is due out on January 13.
“Anything that has to do with underlying economic activity and inflation is really going to catch the market’s attention,” said Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, adding that a backdrop of modest economic growth and moderating inflation is “a good environment for stocks and for risk assets in general.”
Investors will be gearing up for fourth-quarter earnings season, with results from JPMorgan on January 13, along with other major bank reports that week.
With stocks trading at historically lofty valuations, investors are banking on strong earnings growth. Overall S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have climbed 13% in 2025, with another 15.5% rise in 2026, according to LSEG IBES data. “To make an investment case for the S&P 500 at current levels, one must believe in some combination of good/very good earnings growth and continued investor confidence in economic conditions and macro policy,” said Nicholas Colas, Co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a research note.
A trade body for European airports has warned over a “systemic” shortage of jet fuel ahead of the peak summer season if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen in the weeks ahead.
Airports Council International (ACI), which represents more than 600 airports, wrote a letter to the European commissioners for energy and transport and tourism.
The body’s director-general Olivier Jankovec wrote in the letter: “At this stage, we understand that if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.
“The fact that we are entering the peak summer season… is only adding to those concerns.”
Supplies of jet fuel – which is used to fly planes – from the Middle East have been disrupted since the US-Israel’s war with Iran because of Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical international shipping route.
This has led to soaring prices and warnings that flights could be affected because of Europe’s reliance on fuel imports from around the world.
Analysts have also said higher jet fuel prices can be quicker to pass through to airfares than road fuel and household energy costs.
Ryanair’s boss Michael O’Leary said earlier this month that if the war continues, then there was a risk of “disruptions in Europe in May and June”, adding that “maybe 10%, 20%, 25% of our supplies might be at risk”.
Sir Keir Starmer has been visiting allies in the Gulf for talks on how to support what he described as a “fragile” ceasefire between the US and Iran, which was agreed this week.
He spoke to US President Donald Trump about the need for a “practical plan” to get shipping going through the Strait of Hormuz amid suggestions Tehran wants to charge vessels for passage.
In its letter, the ACI says jet fuel supply for the next six months needs to be urgently monitored by the European Commission, including identifying action that can be taken to increase production within the EU.
It also asks them to consider temporarily lifting restrictions and regulations that limit the ability to import jet fuel.
“This crisis has exposed the reduced refining capacity of the EU for jet fuel production, and its acute dependence on imports from other world regions,” Mr Jankovec warned on behalf of the body.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist for Wealth Club, said: “Carriers have had to deal with a more than doubling of fuel costs since the conflict erupted and the threat of shortages lingers.
“As the war has put a chokehold on supplies from the Middle East, it has caused other nations which produce jet fuel to impose export bans, causing trade to seize up further.
“It will take time to unwind panic positions, and for jet fuel prices to stabilise, so airlines are likely to continue to pass on the cost to passengers for the foreseeable future.”
Chrysler and Dodge CEO Matt McAlear wants the world to know that the minivan is not dead. Far from it, he said, at the New York International Auto Show, where he showed off the latest version of the Pacifica Pinnacle, the highest-end trim of the brand’s sole product line.
The Chrysler brand — once one of the biggest names in the auto industry — only sells a single family of minivans, which many take as a sign of the brand’s impending demise.
Chrysler, which has been promising new products for years, said it will share more plans at parent company Stellantis‘ investor day on May 21 in Auburn Hills, Michigan. McAlear didn’t elaborate further but said the brand had “a lot of things in the works” and touted its only vehicle.
“We absolutely see the minivan market growing, and we believe there’s an opportunity for Chrysler to continue its growth year over year,” McAlear said. Chrysler is the best-selling brand in the segment, he added.
Matt McAlear, chief executive officer of Chrysler and Dodge, during the 2026 New York International Auto Show (NYIAS) in New York, US, on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.
Bing Guan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Minivan resurgence?
Chrysler is often credited with inventing the minivan, or at least mainstreaming it in the United States in the early 1980s. Rivals followed, but many have since abandoned it.
Since the 1990s, minivans have steadily lost ground to SUVs, which are considered sportier and more adventurous. Minivan sales were a mere 1.7% of the market in 2017, according to Edmunds. In 2025, they were up to 2.4%.
Sales numbers from Chrysler and its few competitors in this segment indicate growing interest in the adaptive and often affordable “multipurpose vehicle,” as the minivan is sometimes called. The average transaction price for a large SUV is $77,215, according to Edmunds. The average minivan price, meanwhile, is $48,269 — just above the overall industry average cost for a new vehicle of $48,402.
There is enough demand that Chrysler saw fit to unveil a new highest-end version of its minivan at the Auto Show, called the Pinnacle. The vehicle is full of features common in higher-end family vehicles, like screens on the backs of seats so passengers in a rear row can watch movies on a road trip. But there are also some perks that are tough to find outside the segment: both second and third row seats on some versions can be completely stowed in the floor, for example.
Companies like Chrysler are also trying to look beyond the “family hauler” identity the minivan has had for much of its history. Its Grizzly Peak concept has knobby tires and a roof rack, for a more rugged option and McAlear said the company was thinking about how to do more of that.
“We’re looking at it,” he said. “We’re trying to figure out if there’s a way to do it because people love it. And it is unlike anything you’ve ever seen from a minivan brand before.”
McAlear also touted the van’s storage capacity compared with similar vehicles.
“I’ve got a friend that’s a racecar driver,” he said. “One of his favorite things about this is he puts a shifter kart in the backseat with the third row down, with his kids so he can keep it safe and doesn’t have to have a trailer. Another buddy of mine loves kiteboarding, and he doesn’t want to put it on the top because it’s hard to get it up and down. It’s hard to keep it secure and safe. He keeps it inside.”
Pacifica sales were only up slightly in 2025. The affordable Voyager model, which the brand has since renamed the Pacifica LX, sells in lower quantities but saw a bigger jump. Pacifica sales were down for the first quarter of 2026, but Chrysler said they were up nearly 84% in March year over year.
There are only a handful of vehicles in this segment in the U.S., or five basic model lines including the electric Volkswagen ID Buzz, which VW prefers not to call a minivan.
Toyota Sienna sales jumped 35% in 2025, and were up again in the first quarter of 2026. It’s nowhere near Toyota’s best-selling vehicle, and many models — some of which were new ones or refreshes — saw greater increase. Toyota’s Japanese rival Honda saw sales of its Odyssey jump 10% last year. But they dipped in the first quarter of 2026.
One especially successful model has been the Kia Carnival. Volumes rose in 2025 and in the first quarter of 2026. It still doesn’t match Kia’s comparable SUVs, as minivan sales are just a few thousand shy of the three-row Sorento, but far below the popular, more rugged Telluride.
“Carnival is just a great family, practical vehicle,” said Eric Watson, vice president of sales operations for Kia America. “I think in the stage of life when people have kids and want those power sliding doors and the configuration of what that vehicle provides, it’s perfect in that life stage.”
Kia was one of the later entrants into the segment, and though it has the sliding rear door that defines the minivan segment, the body panel on it is punched into give the illusion the vehicle is an SUV.
“I think that attracts a lot of people and lowers that stigma of being a minivan family,” Watson said.
But some are attracted to the segment itself. While the Chrysler Pinnacle starts above $56,000, the lowest priced LX, starts just above $41,000.
“We’re actually seeing a resurgence,” McAlear said. “At the end of the day, these things make life easier and you don’t always have to impress everybody.”
Business
US stock market today (April 10, 2026): S&P 500, Nasdaq rise on tech gains after inflation data – The Times of India
US equity benchmarks traded mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving higher on strength in technology stocks after March inflation data came in line with expectations, while investors kept a close watch on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.US consumer prices rose the most in nearly four years in March, driven by higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict and continued tariff pass-through. Despite this, traders maintained expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hold borrowing costs steady this year, scaling back earlier bets of two rate cuts prior to the conflict, according to Reuters.“When paired with Thursday’s PCE data, the message is clear: inflation remains sticky – and that optimistically assumes the energy surge proves to be a temporary headwind rather than a lasting recalibration,” said Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro. “It should keep policymakers on pause, unless we see a more notable deterioration in the labor market or the broader economy.”San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters on Thursday the oil shock from the Iran war would extend the timeline on bringing inflation back to the US central bank’s 2% target.At 10:15 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 109.60 points, or 0.23%, at 48,076.20, while the S&P 500 gained 10.56 points, or 0.15%, to 6,835.22, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 123.70 points, or 0.54%, to 22,946.11.Gains were led by technology stocks, with the S&P 500 information technology index advancing 0.8%, supported by chipmakers. Nvidia rose 1.8% and Broadcom climbed 4.4%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor index touched a record high of 8,926.08.However, declines in financial stocks, down 0.8%, limited the broader upside. Goldman Sachs and Travelers weighed on the Dow.On a weekly basis, Wall Street’s main indexes were poised for gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow set for their strongest weekly rise since November and June, respectively.Investor sentiment was supported by the two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, along with remarks from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicating efforts to initiate direct talks with Beirut. However, the Pakistan-brokered truce showed signs of strain, with both sides accusing each other of violations ahead of talks scheduled for Saturday.“This is a headline-driven market… as long as the ceasefire holds and the market sees a path toward relative calm in the Middle East, investors should be able to look through disruptions,” said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.Separately, preliminary data showed the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 47.6 in April, below economists’ expectations of 52, according to a Reuters poll.US-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, rose 2.7% after reporting stronger-than-expected first-quarter revenue.CoreWeave advanced 6.8% after announcing a multi-year agreement with Anthropic and pricing its convertible bond offering at a premium.Advancing stocks outpaced decliners by a 1.22-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by 1.07-to-1 on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 recorded 17 new 52-week highs and 18 new lows, while the Nasdaq logged 84 new highs and 70 new lows.
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