Men’s college basketball betting: Three teams stand out as best values to win it all

The calendar has flipped to 2026, conference play is here and sights of an NCAA champion are on the rise.

Every week continues to provide more insight into which teams are trustworthy and which aren’t, as tougher nonconference schedules and early conference action can tell us a lot about whose bubble may burst before the nets are cut down in Indianapolis in April.

The criteria of what makes a team worthy enough to bet on are consistent, and the numbers can tell us all we need to know about that team’s ability to put together the six consecutive wins necessary to win the NCAA tournament.

Every national champion since 2002 has ranked in the top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom, so that makes for an easy starting point.

Below are three teams whose odds to hoist the trophy provide the best value.

Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

I was high on the Wildcats last season and felt they were a real threat, but they ran into Duke and Cooper Flagg and were sent home in the Sweet 16. They are even better this season.

Arizona is an elite shooting team and highly efficient. The Cats aren’t a prisoner to shooting from beyond the arc — only 22.4% of their points come from the 3-ball (near the bottom of Division I) — but they are capable of beating teams both inside (shooting 57.9% on 2-pointers) and out (37.8% on 3s).

Add in the fact this team is third in the nation in offensive rebound percentage and the Wildcats can punish opponents on the glass.

Defensively, their size, length and athleticism are a matchup nightmare for anyone. Their ability to force turnovers and limit second-chance points results in their being fourth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Arizona’s price is only going to get smaller as we get deeper into the season. With only three other real threats to win the Big 12, the Wildcats will continue to be heavy favorites throughout the season, especially if they win the conference and grab a No. 1 seed.

Is this the year Mark Few and the Bulldogs finally get it done? Few has amassed 758 wins and an .832 winning percentage since taking over in Spokane in 1999, but has yet to win it all. So, what’s so different this season? Depth. Gonzaga is arguably the deepest team in the country, as nine players average at least 17 minutes per game.

The Zags’ offensive efficiency is off the charts. The Bulldogs are shooting 52.4% from the field this season, including 36.9% from 3. Like Arizona, they aren’t beholden to the 3-point shot, but they are tough to stop inside (59.2% on 2-point FGs) and are 45th in offensive rebound rate and 10th in defensive rebound rate.

Gonzaga creates turnovers and uses transition to beat you down the floor. What sells me on this team is not only depth but its experience. The Zags are second in Division I experience according to KenPom, including eight upperclassmen in the rotation. Much of this team has been through the rigors of March already and that experience could be enough to push them through this season.

No one should doubt the pedigree and consistency of the Spartans as a program, but their last championship was over a quarter-century ago and their last Final Four appearance was pre-pandemic, so some may start to wonder if Tom Izzo still has what it takes to get over the top. Well, this year’s Michigan State roster certainly does.

The Spartans are ferocious on defense and dominate on the glass, allowing the second-lowest offensive rebound rate in the country. Michigan State will force you to pick your poison, as they are seventh in the nation in block percentage, meaning they won’t let you inside while also guarding the 3-point line (opponents shoot just 30.8%).

The Spartans’ pace is designed to force teams into mistakes and poor shooting decisions. Offensively, they are much more complete this season. After finishing last season 316th in the nation in 3-point shooting, they are hitting a respectable 36.3% from deep this season.

Michigan State will certainly be battle-tested when it gets to March playing in a Big Ten Conference that has a dozen teams sitting in the top 50 in KenPom right now and could get at least eight teams into the tournament. The Spartans are complete enough to beat you on both ends of the floor and if you still believe in “Izzo in March” as something to push them over the top, they are worth a look for the price.