Middle East conflict hits UK exports, down 20%: BCC

UK export activity to the Middle East dropped sharply in March 2026 as escalating conflict disrupted trade routes, according to the latest data from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). The decline is reflected in certificates of origin issued by Chambers, a key early indicator of export flows.

Total UK certificates of origin fell 10 per cent year-on-year, from 39,457 in March 2025 to 35,533 in March 2026. However, exports to Arab League markets recorded a steeper 20 per cent fall, declining from 15,437 to 12,360 over the same period. In contrast, certificates for non-Arab markets slipped by just 4 per cent, from 24,751 to 23,785.

UK exports to Middle East markets fell 20 per cent in March 2026, far outpacing the 4 per cent dip in non-Arab trade, signalling a clear region-specific disruption.
Overall export certificates dropped 10 per cent YoY, reflecting delays, rerouting and shipment losses.
Rising freight, insurance costs and longer lead times are straining SMEs.

The divergence suggests a region-specific disruption rather than a broad slowdown in global demand. A fall in certificates indicates goods are being delayed, rerouted, or not shipped, highlighting the immediate impact of instability across key Middle East trade corridors.

“Our documentation data shows a clear and immediate shock to UK trade flows linked directly to disruption across the Middle East,” said Steven Lynch, Director of International Trade at the BCC.

He noted that firms are facing longer and more expensive shipping routes, rising insurance costs, and extended lead times, with small and medium-sized enterprises particularly affected. While some trade may be delayed rather than permanently lost, Lynch warned that the operating environment has fundamentally changed.

In response, the BCC has launched a Diplomatic Advisory Hub with the UK Foreign Office to provide businesses with real-time guidance on overseas trade risks.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (MS)