NBA MVP straw poll: Why SGA and Wemby have created their own tier

Since Feb. 1, the San Antonio Spurs have won 27 of 29 games to force their way into the mix for the NBA’s best record.

As a result, 22-year-old phenom Victor Wembanyama has forced his way to the top of the NBA’s Most Valuable Player discussion, with a chance to become the first player to win the award as early as his third season since Derrick Rose did so 15 years ago.

But will the Spurs’ 7-foot-4 big man actually challenge Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who can become the 14th player in league history to win back-to-back MVPs and the 16th to win it at least twice?

According to ESPN’s third and final NBA MVP straw poll of the 2025-26 season, Wemby’s late-season push will fall just short.

In a poll of 100 NBA media members conducted Monday through Wednesday, Gilgeous-Alexander leads our ballot with only 10 days left in the regular season. The 27-year-old guard’s clutch play has allowed the defending champions to overcome injuries throughout their rotation and remain a step ahead of the Spurs.

And, despite Wembanyama’s late charge, Denver Nuggets‘ center Nikola Jokic‘ continued otherworldly play and Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic coming off a 600-point month — the first in March since Michael Jordan in 1987 — Gilgeous-Alexander remains comfortably in front. SGA landed the top spot on 88 out of 100 ballots while picking up nine second- and three third-place votes for a total of 958 points, 300 clear of Wembanyama.

Those wondering why this race isn’t closer can look to Monday night. Wembanyama was brilliant, with 41 points, three 3-pointers, 16 rebounds and three blocks as San Antonio overwhelmed the Chicago Bulls.

A couple of hours later, Gilgeous-Alexander scored 47 points in Oklahoma City’s overtime win against the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. After the game, Gilgeous-Alexander was asked whether he wanted to contribute to any of the ongoing MVP chatter.

“No, I’m good. Thanks for asking, though,” he told ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. “Yeah, I’m good. I let my game do the talking.”

Gilgeous-Alexander, who has now led five consecutive straw polls since the middle of last season, is having yet another spectacular campaign. He’s averaging 31.6 points on 55.3% shooting with 4.4 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.4 steals.

And he’s doing all of it while powering the Thunder to the best record in the NBA for a second straight season, and with key contributors shuttling in-and-out of the lineup. The most notable of that group: All-Star Jalen Williams, who has played only 30 games this season after offseason wrist surgery and a hamstring strain suffered in January.

But Wembanyama’s case can’t be ignored. Neither can San Antonio’s incredible play as a team over the past couple of months.

Wembanyama, who fell short of the 65-game threshold for 2024-25 awards eligibility, should avoid any such issues this time and is putting up astronomical numbers of his own — averaging 24.5 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists and and a league-leading 3.1 blocks.

He’s also far from bashful about stating his case for the league’s top individual honor.

“I have thought about it,” Wembanyama told reporters last week. “I think right now, there is a debate. There should be, even though I think I should lead the race. I’m trying to make sure that at the end of the season, there’s no debate.”

Unless things change, though, Wembanyama might have to wait until next year to potentially join Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the only players to win both Defensive Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player in the same season.

Jokic, who received three first-place votes and landed on 99 of 100 ballots, finished outside the top two for the first time since December 2022, a nod to his remarkable durability and consistency. But his historic per-game averages — 27.7 points (eighth in the NBA), 13.0 rebounds (first) and 10.8 assists (first) — have dipped a bit since the 31-year-old center returned from a bone bruise in his knee before the All-Star break. Denver has also slipped behind the Lakers in the West standings.

Jokic was able to edge the fourth-place Doncic, who appeared on 96 of 100 ballots. Doncic leads the league with 33.8 points per game to go along with 7.1 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 1.7 steals while leading the Lakers to a 15-2 record in March. Doncic’s chances in the official MVP ballot took a hit Thursday night, when he exited the game against OKC with a left hamstring injury. At 64 games played, Doncic would become ineligible for MVP and All-NBA if he misses the Lakers’ final five games of the regular season. (Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards, who received one fifth-place vote in ESPN’s straw poll, is now out of the running after missing Thursday’s game due to a right knee ailment.)

It’s also important to note that voters were instructed to leave the Detroit Pistons All-Star guard Cade Cunningham off their ballots after the collapsed lung he suffered last month probably ended his regular season at 61 games played.

The consensus among the 100 media members polled was that Cunningham would’ve landed anywhere from third to fifth, probably cutting into the vote totals for both Jokic and Doncic but not doing much to change the tenor of the race between Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama.

Bonus! Where does the Rookie of the Year race stand?

With a contentious Rookie of the Year race all season involving a pair of former roommates at Duke — Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg and Charlotte Hornets guard Kon Knueppel — we also chose to survey voters on how that race could shake out.

And, like the MVP race, there is a clear leader.

It’s Knueppel, the No. 4 pick last June, who has a massive lead with 10 days to go in the regular season, claiming 80 first-place votes to Flagg’s 20.

Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe, the No. 3 pick, snagged two second-place votes to go with 94 third-place votes. San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper, the No. 2 pick, had five third-place votes, and New Orleans Pelicans big man Derik Queen received the final third-place vote.

For someone to pass No. 1 pick Flagg, a potential generational prospect who is on pace to become the fourth rookie since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976 to average at least 20.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists, joining Doncic, Jordan and Larry Bird — it was going to take a remarkable turn of events.

Enter Knueppel, who has not only set the NBA rookie record for 3-pointers made in a season but is currently leading the league in 3s on 43.1% shooting from deep.

Those gaudy numbers have been key to Charlotte’s turnaround; the Hornets started the season 16-28 but have won 24 of their past 32 games to surge into the top half of the East play-in picture.

Though winning rarely factors into the Rookie of the Year race, the combination of Knueppel’s play and Charlotte’s success — coupled with Flagg’s Mavericks playing for another high draft pick — has swung the race fully in Knueppel’s favor with just a handful of regular-season games left.