Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Eagles.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Report, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI

Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23

Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bijan Robinson, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka

Shadow Report: Expect A.J. Terrell Jr. to shadow Evans in Week 1. Atlanta’s top corner shadowed most weeks last season, including a Week 5 showdown with Evans. Evans posted a strong 5-62-2 receiving line on seven targets in the game. Evans was out for the Week 8 meeting between the teams, but Terrell also shadowed him in Week 5 back in 2022 (where Evans posted an 8-4-81-0 receiving line), as well as in Week 7 (8-6-82-1) and Week 14 (1-1-5-0) of 2023.

Some quick math shows that Evans has produced 14.3 fantasy PPG in the four meetings with Terrell, having reached 20 points twice. With Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan both out, Evans will be Mayfield’s top target and Terrell hasn’t been much of a detriment to his success. Evans should be locked in as a fringe WR1 and rookie running mate Egbuka should also be in lineups.

Over/under: 49.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 64% (7th highest)

Projected score: Bengals 27, Browns 20

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

Fantasy scoop: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has yet to sign with the Browns, which positions Jerome Ford and fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson as Cleveland’s Week 1 lead backs. Ford played six full games as the team’s lead back last season and was productive, averaging 14.0 touches, 78.0 yards and 14.0 fantasy points. He was also the team’s lead back for most of 2023 and finished 16th in RB fantasy points (25th in PPG) while piling up 1,132 yards and nine TDs. It’s yet to be seen how much Sampson will contribute, but Ford is safe to view as a RB2/flex option this week against a suspect Bengals defense.

Over/under: 47 (6th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 73% (3rd highest)

Projected score: Colts 23, Dolphins 22

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

Shadow Report: Free agency and injuries have devastated Miami’s cornerbacks room, leaving the likes of Storm Duck, recently signed Rasul Douglas and Day 3 rookie Jason Marshall Jr. as the probable Week 1 starters. This opens the door for Colts receivers to get off to a fast start with Daniel Jones under center. Upgrade the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren also makes for a fine starting option in his NFL debut.

Over/under: 44.8 (9th highest)
Win probability: Colts 55% (14th highest)

Projected score: Patriots 25, Raiders 19

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, TreVeyon Henderson, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers

Shadow Report: Stefon Diggs is a bit risky as he makes his New England debut while returning from last season’s torn ACL. The good news is that he has an appealing Week 1 matchup at home against a suspect Raiders cornerbacks room. Ex-Packer Eric Stokes will be joined on the perimeter by third-round rookie Darien Porter and slot man Darnay Holmes. Diggs and fellow starting WRs DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte can be upgraded.

Over/under: 44.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 69% (4th highest)

Projected score: Cardinals 24, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride

Fantasy scoop: Week 1 will give us our first look at Spencer Rattler in Kellen Moore’s offense. Rattler — a 2024 fifth-round pick — appeared in seven games as a rookie and did not show particularly well. He completed 57% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and managed four TDs and five INTs. Especially against an improved Arizona defense, Rattler’s presence makes the Saints’ pass catchers very risky fantasy plays. Chris Olave (a 4-54-0 receiving line on five career targets from Rattler) and Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0 on seven targets) are no better than flex options in deeper leagues.

Over/under: 42.1 (15th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 68% (6th highest)

Projected score: Steelers 20, Jets 18

Penn State sophomore setter Izzy Starck, who led the Nittany Lions to their eighth volleyball national championship in 2024, announced Friday that she is stepping away from the game for the rest of the season to prioritize her mental health.

“Over the past several months, I’ve been facing challenges that have taken a toll on me mentally and emotionally,” her Instagram post read. “I recognize that I need to take a step back and focus on getting the help and care I need at this time.”

In a statement sent to ESPN, the Nittany Lions said, “We fully support Izzy in taking this important and difficult step, and kindly ask that her privacy be respected during this time.”

Starck started the first four games of the season for No. 5 Penn State and had 170 assists and 50 digs in 17 sets. The Nittany Lions (2-3) were swept by No. 4 Kentucky (2-1) on Friday night in Penn State’s home opener. Graduate student Addie Lyon, a transfer from Saint Louis, started in Starck’s place.

Starck was named the AVCA national freshman of the year and the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2024. She started all 37 matches for the Nittany Lions and had 1,483 assists, the most in program history in the rally-scoring era.

“This is not goodbye forever, it’s simply a pause to focus on healing and growth,” her Instagram post read.

The Los Angeles Chargers started the 2025 NFL season as winners, taking down the Kansas City Chiefs, 27-21, on Friday night in Brazil.

The Chiefs had won the previous seven matchups against their AFC West rival, but Justin Herbert and the Chargers ended that streak with nearly flawless football in São Paulo.

The Chiefs lost a key player on offense just three plays into the game when Xavier Worthy collided with Travis Kelce and suffered a shoulder injury that knocked him out for the rest of the game.

Worthy figured to be a top target for Mahomes, with head coach Andy Reid noting he had a good plan for the second-year receiver in this game. 

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Without him, the Chiefs sputtered on offense to start the game, but Herbert and the Chargers were locked in from kickoff. 

They got off to a hot start with a seven-play touchdown drive capped by a five-yard strike from Herbert to Quentin Johnston to quickly make it 7-0 in the fourth quarter. 

Cameron Dicker would add his first field goal of the season to make it 10-0, while the Chiefs punted on their first three drives. 

It was all field goals in the second quarter for both teams, but the most exciting one was Harrison Butker knocking home a 59-yard field goal just as time was expiring. 

It was a fire drill for the Chiefs, as Noah Gray wasn’t deemed out of bounds, and the special teams unit had to rush on the field and snap the ball with nine seconds left in the first half.

CHIEFS STAR XAVIER WORTHY LEAVES CHARGERS GAME WITH SHOULDER INJURY AFTER COLLIDING WITH TRAVIS KELCE

After an uncharacteristic first half for Kansas City’s offense, they quickly righted the ship with their first drive of the second half. Mahomes led the way, going 80 yards in 11 plays where he would scamper into the end zone for the Chiefs’ first touchdown of the season. 

Herbert and the Chargers responded with a 12-play drive that took up almost eight minutes of the clock that resulted in a Keenan Allen touchdown to make it 20-12.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs against Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) in the second half during a NFL game at Corinthians Arena on Sept. 5, 2025. (Amanda Perobelli/Reuters via Imagn Images)

The fourth quarter was the most thrilling in this Brazilian bout, as Travis Kelce scored his first of the year when he sprung free for a 37-yard touchdown catch-and-run. That made it 20-18, as the Chiefs failed to convert their two-point try. 

All the momentum was with Kansas City, but once again, the Chargers responded against their divisional foe. Herbert ran to his right on the Kansas City 23-yard line and slung a sidearm pass to Johnston for his second touchdown of the game. 

The 27-18 gap was needed midway through the fourth quarter, as Mahomes would launch a 49-yard pass on the run to Marquise “Hollywood” Brown on fourth-and-7 to put the Chiefs in the red zone. They had to settle for a field goal, but they were within a touchdown and needed a stop on defense.

CHARGERS FANS UPSET AS CHIEFS LOGO APPEARS IN END ZONE DURING DESIGNATED HOME GAME IN BRAZIL

The story of this game was Herbert doing exactly what was needed to respond to the Chiefs, and he did so on a crucial third-and-14, scrambling outside the pocket and going 19 yards to seal the win in Brazil. 

Herbert was phenomenal for the Chargers, going 25-for-34 for 318 yards with three touchdowns in the win. Johnston finished with 79 yards on five catches, while Ladd McConkey had six catches for 74 yards. Allen also had seven catches for 68 yards and a score. 

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) during the warm-up before an NFL game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Corinthians Arena on Sept. 5, 2025. (Amanda Perobelli/Reuters via Imagn Images)

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For the Chiefs, Mahomes went 24-for-39 through the air for 258 yards and a touchdown, while leading the team on the ground with 57 yards rushing on six carries. 

Brown had 10 catches for 99 yards, while Kelce had just two catches for 47 yards and a touchdown. 

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