Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour. Don’t miss our last-minute prep for a loaded slate.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak predicting three potentially big surprises and NFL analyst Matt Bowen picking one key matchup to watch. Finally, sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado gives her favorite bet of Week 2.

Can J.J. McCarthy find ways to beat Jessie Bates III in the Vikings’ pass game? Does Juwan Johnson have fantasy upside this week? Could James Conner have a big rushing day? And which NFC South team could pull an upset? Let’s dive in.

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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Best bet of the week

Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 2 winners

Can QB Caleb Williams fix accuracy issues against the Lions?

Williams’ accuracy woes were on full display in Week 1. He recorded a 29% off-target rate and a negative-13% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), which were both the worst among all quarterbacks per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What stands out the most about Williams’ career accuracy numbers is that the problems are particularly pronounced when throwing outside the numbers. He actually is roughly average when throwing between the numbers, with a 0% CPOE since the start of last season. But outside the numbers, that drops to minus-4%. And his 28% off-target rate outside the numbers is outdone only by Colts QB Anthony Richardson Sr.

In general, this actually makes me slightly more bullish on Chicago because of Williams’ new coach. No team threw more between the numbers last season than Ben Johnson’s Lions. But facing Detroit’s defense might not be the ideal matchup. The Lions faced throws between the numbers only 46% of the time last season, the third-lowest rate in the league. We don’t yet know if the Lions will deter middle-of-the-field targets in the same way under new defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard, but the pattern largely held Week 1 against Green Bay (41% of targets between the numbers).

Can the Rams’ interior line hold off Titans DT Jeffery Simmons?

Injuries hit the Rams hard at guard in Week 1, with both Steve Avila and Kevin Dotson getting hurt in that game (though Avila returned in Dotson’s stead). Both are now week-to-week, and if at least one cannot play, that presumably means Beaux Limmer will step in again. Limmer played 870 snaps at center as a rookie, but his guard debut was shaky last week. He was beaten clean by Folorunso Fatukasi for a sack. The matchup will be tougher this time around against Simmons and the Titans.

Simmons ranked 10th in pass rush win rate as an interior rusher last season (12%) and eighth in Week 1 (14%). He would be a threat to QB Matthew Stafford against even the best guards, so this could be a challenging day with the Rams’ backups in there.

Will the Texans get their running game going against the Buccaneers?

Houston’s change at offensive coordinator from Bobby Slowik to Nick Caley has meant a dramatic shift in the team’s run scheme. The Texans ran outside zone 47% of the time last season (sixth-most) and barely any duo (8%) — but the team’s duo rate jumped to a league-high 55% in Week 1 this season.

This change in scheme might not be ideal this week. Since the start of last season, the Buccaneers have allowed just 3.5 yards per carry against duo runs — third-lowest in the league. Perhaps it’s just variance due to a small sample, but it also might be a credit to the players on the defensive front under Todd Bowles (especially Vita Vea). Tampa Bay hasn’t had much turnover from last season’s defensive front (edge rusher Haason Reddick was the only major addition), so this strength should continue.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up — and can start this week

Cedric Tillman, WR, Cleveland Browns (46.1% rostered)

Tillman saw eight targets and posted 16.2 fantasy points against the Bengals in Week 1, matching wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in snaps and routes. With quarterback Joe Flacco projected for a lot of passing volume and Cleveland likely playing from behind versus Baltimore, Tillman remains firmly on the flex radar in most leagues.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints (37.6% rostered)

Johnson led the Saints in receiving against the Cardinals with eight receptions for 76 yards, hinting at a big role in new coach Kellen Moore’s offense. With no Taysom Hill (torn ACL) in the mix, Johnson could remain a reliable target and sneaky sleeper despite a tough 49ers matchup.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (36.1% rostered)

I had Lawrence in this section last week, but he didn’t have to do much against the Panthers since the Jaguars built a huge lead and leaned heavily on running back Travis Etienne Jr. Lawrence should outperform his 10.3 fantasy points from the opener in Week 2, as the Bengals-Jaguars game is expected to be one of the higher-scoring games on the slate. Jacksonville will likely rely on the passing game against Cincinnati, especially targeting wide receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons (26.8% rostered)

Penix was superb in the season opener against the Buccaneers, finishing with 24.0 fantasy points. The second-year QB showed solid command of the Falcons’ offense in just his fourth career start. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney‘s status is uncertain (shoulder), but Drake London is expected to play against the Vikings after leaving the Week 1 game early with his own shoulder injury. The Bears’ Caleb Williams posted 24.2 fantasy points against Minnesota’s defense, so Penix has the potential for a similar performance.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (20.3% rostered)

Running back Isiah Pacheco didn’t have the Chiefs’ backfield on lockdown against the Chargers, playing just 51% of snaps and logging seven touches for 4.8 fantasy points. Hunt basically matched him with seven touches and 4.6 fantasy points in fewer snaps (38%). Hunt is capable of contributing as a runner, receiver and blocker; he can also handle short-yardage and goal-line work. Since his fantasy projection against the Eagles isn’t far off from Pacheco’s, it might be worth taking a risk on Hunt this weekend.

Solak: Don’t be surprised if …

The Bears run a trick play. There were no classic Ben Johnson whirligig plays against the Vikings (end-of-game prayer notwithstanding). But against his former team in Week 2, I would wager Johnson has something goofy planned. Nothing embarrasses a defense quite like a receiver throwing a touchdown pass to an offensive tackle (or something like that).

The Bills score 40-plus points again. The Jets’ secondary was a mess against the Steelers — corners falling down, blown coverage assignments and missed tackles. The last time Josh Allen‘s Bills played Aaron Glenn’s defense, they put 48 on the Lions. All of the man coverage Glenn likes to run is an issue against a Bills team that trusts so many receivers to win matchups and has a deadly scrambling quarterback. If Justin Fields and the Jets’ rushing attack torch Buffalo’s shaky rush defense, this one could get crazy.

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Schefter: ‘The road to the Super Bowl will go through Buffalo’

Adam Schefter and Damien Woody explain why the Bills are now the team to beat in the AFC.

Cardinals running back James Conner leads the league in rushing this week. Including last season, the Panthers have given up over 200 rushing yards in seven straight games. Now, they face a Cardinals team with one of the more creative rushing attacks in the league. It certainly doesn’t help that their new defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton is out for the next few weeks with a hamstring injury. If the Cardinals start to mount a large lead, Conner could rack up ridiculous garbage-time production.

Bowen: Key matchup to watch

Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy vs. Atlanta Falcons safety Jessie Bates III

McCarthy can benefit from the schemed throws in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, but identifying Bates post-snap will be a critical aspect of this game. With 14 interceptions over the past three seasons, Bates has the range and ball skills to make splash plays from both post and split-field alignments.

McCarthy played his best football in the second half of the Monday night win over the Bears, completing eight of 12 attempts for two touchdown passes (not to mention his third score on a designed rushing attempt). The poise and confidence is clearly there for the second-year QB returning from knee surgery. But he will be tested by Bates in the middle of the field Sunday night.

Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 at Houston Texans

Houston’s offense isn’t fully clicking yet. Against the Rams, quarterback C.J. Stroud recorded 7.0 yards per pass attempt with no touchdowns to his depleted receiver room. And the team’s rebuilt offensive line gave up three sacks.

Meanwhile, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield quietly delivered enough explosive plays to wide receivers Emeka Egbuka and Mike Evans to defeat the Falcons. Running back Bucky Irving flashed efficiency, too, giving this offense balance. Defensively, the Texans are solid, but takeaways were their bread and butter last season (fifth-most in the NFL with 29). Though some regression is expected, they had none in Week 1.

The Bucs’ third-down success — 50% in Week 1 — could be the difference in a possession-driven game. Tampa Bay has the healthier skill players, steadier OL and more ways to win. I’m having flashbacks to the 2023 season, when Stroud threw five touchdowns and beat the Bucs by only two points. Back Tampa.

Terence Crawford moved up two divisions to challenge Canelo Alvarez and scored the biggest win of his career, a unanimous decision victory to win the undisputed super middleweight championship on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Crawford, a four-division world champion, put his name in the history books by becoming the first men’s fighter in the four-belt era (since 2007) to become an undisputed champion in three weight classes (junior welterweight, welterweight and super middleweight).

Crawford had fought most of his career between 135 and 147 pounds. He moved up a weight class to 154 in August 2024 and defeated Israil Madrimov to win the WBA junior middleweight title before taking a year to build up for the fight against Canelo.

Canelo is also a four-division champion. His only three losses are to Crawford, Floyd Mayweather in 2013 and Dmitry Bivol in 2022, when Canelo moved up to light heavyweight to challenge for a world title. The loss to Crawford snapped a six-fight winning streak.

Relive the fight round-by-round here.

It’s three weeks into the season and Notre Dame has dropped out of the playoff conversation with an 0-2 start following its home loss to Texas A&M on Saturday.

In what was a wild, entertaining evening of college football. Georgia’s overtime win at Tennessee was overshadowed by what unfolded later in South Bend because the Aggies’ win had the bigger, more immediate impact on the playoff race.

And it’s gonna last all season for the Irish, who no longer have any margin for error and have lost all control on their path to the playoff.

“The future’s uncertain,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “I don’t know what’s the playoff number, and it doesn’t matter. We need to focus on getting better.”

So what does it mean for Texas A&M?

This list is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Like the selection committee, it is a ranking based on what each team has done to-date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

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Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The season-opening win against Texas remains one of the best nonconference wins in the country, but the Longhorns continue to have questions on offense against far less elite defenses. The Buckeyes entered this week No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and are ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — traits of past top-four playoff teams.

Why they could be lower: The committee does track when teams play FCS teams, and the 70-0 drubbing of Grambling doesn’t help Ohio State’s résumé. Saturday’s win against Ohio also doesn’t do much for the Buckeyes during a week in which Miami, Georgia and LSU all played tougher teams.

Need to know: Even if Texas doesn’t live up to the preseason hype and ranking, the selection committee will continue to respect Ohio State’s win against the Longhorns all season — as long as Texas doesn’t come unraveled. It will be a moot point if Ohio State locks up a CFP spot by winning the Big Ten, but it would enter the conversation and help the Buckeyes when it comes to how high they can be seeded for an at-large bid. The top four teams now get the top four seeds — regardless of if they are a conference champion.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.8% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The Canes added to their résumé with a win against South Florida, which should still be the Group of 5’s top contender for a playoff spot. Coupled with the season-opening win against Notre Dame, Miami has one of the best combinations of eye test and résumé in the country.

Why they could be lower: The committee could be more impressed with the SEC wins, period. Georgia’s overtime road win against Tennessee could trump Miami’s home win against the Irish, and LSU’s two Power 4 wins against Clemson and now Florida could also usurp the Canes in a debate.

Need to know: Saturday’s win against the Bulls was a critical head-to-head tiebreaker that would be used in the committee meeting room if both teams finish with similar records. Even if they lock up spots as their respective conference champions, Miami would keep the edge — and the higher seed — on Selection Day, which could mean the difference in hosting a first-round home game.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 54.3% chance to beat their rival.

Why they could be here: The win against Tennessee in the SEC opener was the Bulldogs’ first statement victory, and it now lifts them above other contenders who have played well but against weaker teams. Ohio State’s defense, though, continues to keep the Buckeyes at the top, and Miami’s two wins against ranked teams — Notre Dame and South Florida — gives them an edge in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which is similar to what the committee uses.

Why they could be higher: The committee considers the difficulty of playing overtime games on the road, and the former coaches and players in the room would also recognize the growth of quarterback Gunner Stockton in that unforgiving environment. Stockton completed 23 of 31 attempts for 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for a score.

Need to know: It’s possible this instant classic could get a replay — either in the SEC championship game, the playoff — or both. The selection committee doesn’t try to avoid rematches when it’s ranking the teams, so it’s possible for Georgia and Tennessee to play as many as three times.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have bye week to prepare for it, but the Tide has shown continuous improvement since its season-opening loss to Florida State.

Why they could be here: The Tigers’ season-opening win at Clemson took another hit after the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, and the true value of beating a beleaguered Florida team at home is yet to be determined. Still, those combined wins outweigh what most of the contenders below them have accomplished. LSU’s defense has been a highlight, as the Tigers were No. 11 in the country in defensive efficiency heading into Week 3. They shut the Gators out in the second half and quarterback DJ Lagway threw five interceptions.

Why they could be lower: The Tigers still haven’t flashed that wow factor, continuing to do just enough to win while overcoming mistakes. LSU only had 10 first downs (compared to 22 by Florida), was held under 100 yards rushing, and was 4-of-14 on third downs. LSU ranks behind several other contenders listed below in ESPN’s game control metric.

Need to know: LSU should be undefeated heading into its Sept. 27 game at Ole Miss, which will be one of three critical road trip that will define the Tigers’ season. LSU also travels to Alabama and Oklahoma. The win against the Gators gives them a much-needed cushion, but they can’t go 0-3 on the road against those teams — and that doesn’t count the Oct. 18 trip to Vandy, which just beat South Carolina.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.6% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The road win at Notre Dame was the first statement playoff win under coach Mike Elko, and it gives the Aggies one of the best nonconference wins of the season. It’s arguably better than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M did it on the road. It certainly wasn’t a flawless performance, but it was enough to boost the Aggies into the conversation.

Why they could be lower: It’s hard to tell how good a win against Notre Dame is this year, considering they’re 0-2. Texas A&M’s other two wins were against UTSA and Utah State, which won’t help their résumé.

Need to know: The selection committee compares results against common opponents. While it’s not an overriding factor, the group would at least consider how Miami and Texas A&M both looked in their wins against the Irish if they were comparing the Aggies and Canes side-by-side during the ranking process.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road.

Why they could be here: With wins against Montana State, Oklahoma State and Northwestern, the Ducks have yet to be tested against ranked competition, but they haven’t had any scares along the way. They shut out Northwestern for the first three quarters of their Big Ten opener and continued to look dominant even when scoring fewer than 60 points. Most of the teams ranked above them, though, have a more impressive win.

Why they could be higher: The Ducks are passing the eye test, albeit against weaker competition. They didn’t have any penalties in the win against Northwestern, and quarterback Dante Moore has only thrown one interception this season.

Need to know: Oregon doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan during the regular season, so Penn State and Indiana (maybe USC?) will be the Ducks biggest obstacles to returning to the Big Ten title game. Even if the Ducks lose at Penn State, though, they could see the Nittany Lions again in the Big Ten championship (if Penn State can knock Ohio State out of it).

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 50.8% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.

Why they could be here: The Noles had a bye, and the committee typically doesn’t shift teams that don’t play — unless it results from movement around them. The season-opening win against Alabama continues to shine, as the Tide has rebounded with back-to-back convincing wins. It also helps separate FSU from other contenders who didn’t earn a nonconference win against a top-25 opponent.

Why they could be lower: The win against Bama is all they’ve got right now. The 77-3 blowout of FCS East Texas A&M won’t help them, and while the bye week isn’t a penalty, other teams had an opportunity to enhance their strength of record.

Need to know: Florida State doesn’t play Georgia Tech during the regular season, but it has a tricky trio against Miami, Clemson and at rival Florida. If the Noles can go 2-0 against the SEC, it would be a significant boost to their at-large hopes if they don’t win the ACC — assuming both the Gators and Tide finish above .500 and have respectable seasons.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. The Nov. 8 trip to Clemson looks less daunting now that the Tigers have lost a second game.

Why they could be here: The preseason rankings and hype are irrelevant in the committee meeting room but the weak nonconference schedule is not. Wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping the Nittany Lions behind teams who have played against better opponents. The offense found a groove during a dominant second half against the Wildcats and the defense did not allow a touchdown until the final play of the game.

Why they could be lower: Penn State’s nonconference win doesn’t include a Power 4 opponent, and questions linger about whether the offense is productive enough to beat Oregon. Expectations for quarterback Drew Allar were high entering this season, but he only has four passing touchdowns in three games against weaker opponents. He’s completed less than 60% of his passes in each of the past two games. The Nittany Lions rank No. 65 in offensive efficiency — and the selection committee will expect more.

Need to know: The Nittany Lions have a bye week before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule that ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.8% chance to win.

Why they could be here: There was no hint of a letdown at Temple a week after beating Michigan. The committee has always shown an appreciation for starpower, and OU has it in quarterback John Mateer, who has resurrected the Sooners’ offense. Oklahoma’s lopsided win against an overmatched Temple team won’t do anything to boost its résumé, but it assured the Sooners of a 3-0 start heading into Saturday’s SEC opener against Auburn.

Why they could be higher: Mateer has changed the outlook of this team, and the win against Michigan is one of the better nonconference wins in the country. The Wolverines rebounded and whalloped Central Michigan 63-3, reiterating the potential of freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, who was smothered by OU’s defense.

Need to know: Oklahoma started 3-0 last year with a win against Temple, too, but then lost four of its next five games. The win against Michigan and play of Mateer so far indicates this season could be different, but the season-defining stretch begins against rival Texas on Oct. 11. The back half of the Sooners’ schedule is loaded with seven straight games against opponents that entered Week 3 ranked.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 74.6% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The Vols’ game was so close that Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward he almost felt like he should apologize: “I don’t think we should have won that game. I thought they outplayed us in a lot of ways.” The committee isn’t going to penalize the Vols for losing an overtime game at home to one of the SEC’s best teams, but it will wonder about allowing 44 points, 502 yards, and having 10 penalties and two turnovers. The committee will still respect the season-opening win against Syracuse, which has won each of its past two games against weaker opponents.

Why they could be lower: The lack of a true statement win plus the loss could drop them behind the Illini. Considering the offensive showing, though, it’s hard to make a case for Texas ahead of Tennessee. The committee would consider that the Vols lost at home, while Texas lost at Ohio State. Tennessee’s win against Syracuse, though, is better than anything on the Longhorns’ résumé so far.

Need to know: The Vols still have a realistic path to the SEC championship, where they could meet Georgia again. Tennessee doesn’t play LSU or Texas. It can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma, but the Vols get the Sooners at home.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 63.6% chance to win, but it’s the only other game on the schedule that the Vols aren’t projected to win.

Why they could be here: The Illini are 3-0 heading into their Big Ten opener at Indiana, including a road win at Duke. Illinois had no trouble with winless Western Michigan, but that’s not going to change its status in the committee meeting room this week. It didn’t help Illinois that Duke lost to Tulane, which somewhat devalues that win — at least for now.

Why they could be higher: Illinois is a legitimately talented, veteran team that continues to take care of business with a veteran quarterback in Luke Altmyer. The Illini entered the week ranked No. 12 in offensive efficiency, another stat that would jump out at the committee.

Need to know: Saturday’s game at Indiana will be an under-the-radar game that could impact the CFP because both teams could be competing with each other for an at-large bid. The winner could ultimately knock the loser out with the head-to-head tiebreaker. It’s possible for them both to get in, but it’s hard to imagine the Big Ten getting five teams in the 12-team field (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana and Illinois).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 74.5% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The Longhorns have won back-to-back games since their season-opening loss at Ohio State, but questions about the offense remain. Running backs CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner missed all or parts of the game with injuries, and quarterback Arch Manning had another underwhelming passing performance with one touchdown and an interception. He did account for two rushing touchdowns, but this was hardly a smooth performance. Texas was just 5-of-16 on third downs and 2-of-5 on fourth downs. Meanwhile, rival Oklahoma is soaring offensively with quarterback John Mateer, and the Sooners’ win against Michigan is better than anything Texas has earned.

Why they could be lower: It’s been Arch Maddening for Texas fans, who booed their quarterback after an interception in the red zone. That throw was part of 10 straight incompletions at one point. Manning completed just 5 of 16 passes (31%) in the first half for 69 yards.

Need to know: The Longhorns have one more tune-up game, on Saturday against Sam Houston, before opening SEC play on Oct. 4 at Florida.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 LSU

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Penn State

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 4 LSU
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Oklahoma/No. 8 Penn State winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State