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Predicting men’s college basketball conference winners — and their biggest threats

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Predicting men’s college basketball conference winners — and their biggest threats


The turning of the calendar used to mark the demarcation between nonconference and conference play. With the expansion of conference size and a corresponding increase in the number of conference games, that has changed in some leagues — most notably the Big Ten and Big East, where the majority of teams have already played four or five games against league opponents.

But, for the most part, the meat and potatoes of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season has just gotten underway, with contenders looking to separate themselves from pretenders over the next couple of weeks.

Fortunately, teams are testing themselves more and more in nonconference play than in years past, so we have a better idea of which teams are for real and which could stumble against stiffer competition. According to ESPN Research, a record-setting 45 games between ranked opponents took place in the first two months of the season.

As we enter the final two months before Selection Sunday, how would we handicap the conference races in each of the power conferences? Let’s run through the favorites to win each of the five high-major conferences based on ESPN’s BPI projections — and their biggest threats.

Jump to: ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC

ACC

Favorite: Duke Blue Devils (91.5%)

Despite being comfortably the best team in the ACC last season, the Blue Devils needed to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill on the final day of the regular season to clinch the outright title. The bottom half of the league was so poor that the top three teams — Duke, Clemson and Louisville — were able to stockpile wins and compile gaudy records, taking it down to the wire for the conference crown.

Duke isn’t as good as it was last season, but it could win the conference by more games than one because of the parity and improved depth across the ACC. BPI gives the Blue Devils by far the best chance of winning the regular-season title, after Jon Scheyer’s club took a big step by winning at Louisville on Tuesday.

Duke has the most productive player in college basketball in Cameron Boozer, a slew of perimeter shotmakers surrounding him, depth and a blossoming point guard in Caleb Foster. The Blue Devils might not be national title favorites like a year ago, but they’re still the class of the ACC.


Biggest threats

North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
Virginia Cavaliers

Part of the reason Duke’s status as league favorite is so strong is the likely next three teams in the pecking order have already lost ACC games. North Carolina lost by 14 at SMU on Saturday, Louisville has dropped two in a row with Mikel Brown Jr. sidelined, and Virginia fell in three overtimes to Virginia Tech on New Year’s Eve.

Carolina looked like the biggest threat to Duke prior to the SMU loss; Caleb Wilson has been sensational and he and Henri Veesaar form one of the more potent frontcourt duos in the country. Louisville just isn’t the same without Brown, and it’s unclear when he will be back in the fold. At full strength, the Cardinals’ backcourt and elite shooting ability give them a chance against anyone in America.

Virginia is the sleeper. Ryan Odom’s team is deep, experienced, big and efficient on the offensive end. The Cavaliers face Duke, Carolina and Louisville only once each, but they have to play the Blue Devils and Cardinals on the road.

And although Clemson is 3-0 in ACC play with the second-best chance to win the league, according to BPI, the Tigers likely lack the offensive firepower to keep pace and don’t get either Duke or Carolina at Littlejohn Coliseum.

Big East

Favorite: UConn Huskies (88.1%)

In terms of depth, the Big East is the worst of the five high-major conferences this season, but UConn is a clear-cut national title contender and the heavy favorite to win the regular-season title. If anything, BPI’s 88.1% projection is arguably a low estimate.

The Huskies have just one loss on the season: back in mid-November against Arizona, when Tarris Reed Jr. and Braylon Mullins were both sidelined with injuries. Prior to Wednesday’s overtime win over Providence, UConn had barely been tested in conference play, winning its first four games by an average of 19.0 points. The Huskies are an elite defensive unit, ranking fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and in the top 10 for both 2-point defense and 3-point defense.

In Mullins, Solo Ball and Alex Karaban, Dan Hurley has three high-level shotmakers, and Reed is a double-double machine and the anchor down low.


Biggest threats

Likely none, but …

There doesn’t seem to be a team consistent enough to threaten UConn over the course of a full 20-game Big East schedule. St. John’s was expected to go toe-to-toe with the Huskies after winning the regular-season championship last season, but the Red Storm already suffered a home loss to Providence and have had point guard and defensive issues all season.

Villanova and Seton Hall have been the surprise packages so far this season, with the Wildcats having the edge due to their road win over the Pirates just before Christmas. Over the next couple of weeks, Villanova has road games at Marquette and Providence and will play both St. John’s and UConn — if the Wildcats come out the other side within a game of the Huskies, we can revisit their title bona fides. A home loss to Creighton on Wednesday takes some of the steam out of Kevin Willard’s team, though. And Seton Hall has the aforementioned home loss to Nova plus needed a last-second putback to beat Creighton at home, though the Pirates do get UConn at home next Tuesday to make a statement.

Had Creighton not blown a big second-half lead at Seton Hall, the Bluejays might have loomed as a bigger threat.

Big Ten

Favorite: Michigan Wolverines (67.5%)

Analytically, Michigan is the best team in the country, ranking No. 1 at KenPom, in BPI and at BartTorvik.com. The Wolverines are No. 1 in the NET and lead the country in scoring margin, with Tuesday’s two-point win over Penn State only the second time they have failed to win by at least 25 points since Nov. 14.

Dusty May has the nation’s best defense, a physically dominant group that simply overpowers teams with its size, length and ability to get up and down the floor. Yaxel Lendeborg is an All-American, and Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara have been among the most efficient frontcourt players in the country at both ends of the floor. The Wolverines’ performance at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas was one of the best three-game stretches we’ve ever seen in the regular season.

With all that said, BPI gives them only a 67.5% chance to win the Big Ten regular-season title — with Purdue their biggest competition.


Biggest threat

Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue entered the season ranked No. 1 in preseason polls, with National Player of the Year favorite Braden Smith and All-American Trey Kaufman-Renn forming the best inside-outside combo in the country on paper. A win at Alabama and a 30-point victory over Texas Tech seemed to cement Matt Painter’s team as a national championship favorite, but a stunning 23-point loss to Iowa State on Dec. 6 dropped the Boilermakers down a tier.

They’re still ranked in the top six in all efficiency-based metrics and have the best offense in the country, so don’t count them out. Moreover, they get Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois all in West Lafayette, Indiana.

Nebraska has been the surprise of the Big Ten. Illinois and Michigan State are threats to make deep runs in March, but with each team having already lost to the Cornhuskers, they’re behind the chasing pack.

Big 12

Favorite: Arizona Wildcats (46.2%)

The most loaded conference title race belongs to the Big 12, with four teams — Arizona, Iowa State, Houston and BYU — all ranked in the top 10 nationally, with a combined 58-2 record.

With Arizona ranked No. 1 in the latest AP Top 25 and edging ahead of Iowa State in both KenPom and the BPI, the Wildcats are the narrow favorites. Unsurprisingly, BPI gives them less than a 50% chance to end the season as the regular-season champs, coming in at 46.2% with Iowa State just behind at 43.2%.

Arizona owns the best résumé in the country — No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record — with wins over UConn, Florida, Alabama, UCLA, Auburn and San Diego State. The first four of those wins came away from home, too. The Wildcats are ranked inside the top 10 at both ends of the floor and have incredible depth and balance up front and in the backcourt.

It’s worth noting that Tommy Lloyd’s team faces Iowa State only once, and that game is in Tucson. The Wildcats play Houston on the road and have BYU both home and away.


Biggest threats

Iowa State Cyclones
Houston Cougars
BYU Cougars

Iowa State is one of just six unbeaten teams left in college basketball, and the Cyclones own perhaps the most impressive singular win of the season, going to West Lafayette and beating then-undefeated Purdue by 23 points. They also went 3-0 at the Players Era Festival and held serve against in-state rival Iowa. Joshua Jefferson has been a breakout star and is playing like an All-American, Milan Momcilovic has a case as the best shooter in the country, and Tamin Lipsey has been playing like Tamin Lipsey.

Houston hasn’t quite hit its stride yet, but the Cougars are still 14-1 with a top-10 defense. It’s impossible to count out a Kelvin Sampson-coached team that has one of the best backcourts in the country in star freshman Kingston Flemings and veterans Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp. Houston plays each of the other three top contenders once apiece but faces BYU and Iowa State on the road.

BYU has as talented and explosive a trio as there is in college basketball in AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders and Robert Wright III. All three can take over a game, and Dybantsa is a viable threat to Cameron Boozer in the National Player of the Year race. Arizona, Houston and Iowa State all have to go to the Marriott Center.

SEC

Favorite: Vanderbilt Commodores (52.9%)

The pecking order is likely to shift the most in the SEC over the next couple of months, but after Vanderbilt’s 96-90 win over Alabama on Wednesday, the Commodores — picked 11th in the preseason conference poll — have established themselves as the favorites moving forward.

Mark Byington’s team has been a metrics darling all season, opening the season ranked in the top 20 at KenPom and now in the top five at both KenPom and BartTorvik.com. Wednesday’s win was Vandy’s first statement win of the season, to go along with victories over Saint Mary’s, SMU and UCF. Tyler Tanner is playing like a legitimate All-American, and Duke Miles has been one of the best transfer portal pickups in the country. The Commodores are a terrific offensive team, ranking in the top 10 in scoring offense and in the top five in adjusted offensive efficiency.

In terms of schedule, it’s worth noting they face Florida only once and it’s in Nashville. They play Tennessee home and away and have to go to Arkansas.


Biggest threats

Florida Gators
Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers

In any given week, the biggest threat to Vanderbilt’s status seemingly changes two or three times. Most metrics, including BPI, point to Florida as the second-best team in the SEC — but the Gators opened SEC play with a loss at Missouri and have been inconsistent against good teams all season. The reigning national champs have an elite frontcourt, but the portal backcourt of Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee is still a work in progress.

There might not be a guard in college basketball playing better than Darius Acuff Jr. right now, and as a result, Arkansas looks like the real deal. The Razorbacks also opened SEC play with a win over Tennessee and will host Vanderbilt later this month.

Alabama has a terrific offense and one of the most explosive players in the country in Labaron Philon Jr., but the defense has been poor, allowing an average of 93.5 points in losses to Purdue, Gonzaga, Arizona and Vanderbilt.

Tennessee seems like a stretch, despite BPI giving the Vols a 16.3% chance of winning the league. They are 4-4 in their past eight games and still have to go to Florida and Alabama in the next two weeks.



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Inter Miami to use ‘whole squad’ in friendly despite short turnover to MLS – Mascherano

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Inter Miami to use ‘whole squad’ in friendly despite short turnover to MLS – Mascherano


Inter Miami head coach Javier Mascherano has confirmed he will use the friendly against Independiente del Valle on Thursday night as an opportunity to give all players some minutes on the field despite returning to Major League Soccer regular-season action just 72-hours later.

The Herons will play the rescheduled preseason friendly in Puerto Rico on Thursday night before traveling to Orlando on Sunday to face Orlando City.

“This game clearly gives us the opportunity to, first, give minutes to guys who have perhaps had fewer minutes in the preseason and in the last game we played. But yes, we’re going to try to give everyone playing time,” Mascherano said on Thursday morning.

“We need to give the whole squad some opportunities.

“Obviously, being careful because then, in 72 hours, we have a very important game, where beyond the loss against LAFC, those of us who have been here at Inter Miami for a while know that regardless of a loss or a win, the next game is always the most important, and the next game is always the one we have to win.”

Inter Miami was originally set to face Independiente del Valle on Feb. 13, before the club, in collaboration with the event promoter and government of Puerto Rico, opted to postpone the event after Lionel Messi suffered a hamstring strain.

“Hi everyone, I wanted to send this message to the people of Puerto Rico and all the people that will be going to the training session and game,” Messi said in a video.

“To be honest, during the last game in Ecuador I concluded with a muscle strain, which is why I left the field early. So, together with the people of the organization and Inter Miami it was decided to suspend this game. We hope it can be reprogrammed, and we can see each other.

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Visit you soon. Sending a hug to you all and thank you for all the love that you always give. I hope we can do it in the future, all the best.”

Messi has since returned to action, playing the full 90 minutes in the team’s MLS season opener against Los Angeles FC on Feb. 21.

Mascherano later emphasized that he’ll use the friendly in Puerto Rico to prepare the players for Orlando City at the weekend.

“We’re trying to use today’s match, beyond the fact that it’s a friendly, to see certain things, to see players we perhaps haven’t had the opportunity to see in terms of playing time, and use this game to prepare for the match on Sunday,” he said.

Mateo Silvetti, however, stands as the only player mentioned by Mascherano to be in doubt for the game after he suffered a strain over a week ago. The coach confirmed the team will evaluate his condition before deciding whether he features against Independiente del Valle.



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Jontay Porter, who was given a lifetime ban by the NBA for gambling, makes pro basketball comeback in USBL

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Jontay Porter, who was given a lifetime ban by the NBA for gambling, makes pro basketball comeback in USBL


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Jontay Porter, whom the NBA banned for life for gambling in 2024, is making his return to the court.

Porter, 26, is going to the Seattle SuperHawks, a member of the re-created United States Basketball League. The SuperHawks announced Porter’s signing on Wednesday. The team begins its season on March 7.

Porter is currently awaiting sentencing after he pleaded guilty to a related federal charge. In July 2024, he pleaded guilty to a federal court in Brooklyn to one count of conspiracy to commit fraud, a sentence that carries up to 20 years in prison.

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Jontay Porter (34) of the Toronto Raptors warms up before a game against the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center. The game was played in Portland, Oregon, on March 9, 2024. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

However, Porter is expected to get a sentencing of between 3 and 4 years. The former Toronto Raptors player was accused of manipulating his performance in coordination with gamblers to win prop bets during two games in the 2023-24 season.

Porter also won $22,000 by gambling on 13 NBA games that he didn’t play in, which is a violation of league rules, according to an NBA investigation.

Jontay Porter passes ball

Jontay Porter (34) of the Toronto Raptors handles the ball during a game against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena. The game was played in Detroit, Michigan, on March 13, 2024. (Brian Sevald/NBAE via Getty Images)

Federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of New York indicted dozens of others based on the investigation that began with Porter. Miami Heat guard Terry Roziers, former Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chancey Billups and former NBA player and assistant coach Damon Jones were all indicted as part of the expanded investigation into Porter.

Porter spent two seasons in the NBA. He signed with the Memphis Grizzlies as an undrafted free agent out of Missouri and played 11 games with them in the 2020-21 season. After spending two years out of the NBA, he played 26 games with the Raptors in the 2023-24 season.

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Jontay Porter vs Raptors

Jontay Porter of the Toronto Raptors fights for a rebound with Lindy Waters III of the Oklahoma City Thunder during a 2023–2024 NBA regular-season game between the Raptors and the Thunder in Toronto on March 22, 2024. (Zou Zheng/Xinhua via Getty Images)

In 37 career NBA games, Porter averaged 3.7 points per game.

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What’s going on with Premier League’s 115 charges against Man City?

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What’s going on with Premier League’s 115 charges against Man City?


Over three years have passed since the Premier League announced it was charging Manchester City for breaching a long list of rules related to alleged wrongdoing. Most of them relate to actions taken to circumvent financial regulation, from false accounting to making payments off the books to failing to cooperate with investigators. City deny the charges.

Depending on the number of charges on which they are found guilty (if any) City could face a range of sanctions, from fines and points deductions to being stripped of titles to outright expulsion from the Premier League. If they’re found guilty — depending on the nature and number of the charges — they also run the risk of having to pay damages via the league’s arbitration process as other clubs could seek compensation for lost revenue. A three-person independent panel is tasked with issuing a verdict.

“While the complexity of the Manchester City case is undeniable — and unique in a sporting context — similar commercial cases have reached decisions in far less time than the 15 months we’ve seen here,” Stefan Borson, head of sport at London-based law firm McCarthy Denning, tells ESPN. “There are few legitimate excuses, and there is an urgent need for progress.”

Let’s start with the obvious: Why is this taking so long?

To some degree, we can only speculate because the whole process is shrouded in secrecy. This is partly due to the fact that the Premier League’s own rules allow defendants to request confidential hearings, and partly due to British law and safeguards that protect defendants in certain situations.

One example illustrates this well. The investigation into City began in Dec. 2018 following the publication of the “Football Leaks” documents by the German magazine “Der Spiegel.” But we only found out that there even was an investigation in March 2021 after a High Court judgement ruled against City, who had tried to block investigators’ access to documents. The start date of the investigation was later confirmed in official documents, but there wasn’t even confirmation from the Premier League that City were even under scrutiny.

It’s a similar story with the hearings themselves, which are confidential and held in private. We know they started on Sept. 16, 2024, at the International Dispute Resolution Centre in London because this was leaked, and media photographed lawyers for both sides arriving and leaving the venue. We know the hearing concluded in Dec. 2024 because Manchester City mention it in their 2024-25 annual report and because, in Feb. 2025, Pep Guardiola, the City coach, said the verdict would come out “in one month.”

One month? Wow, it’s been 12 months and counting…

Yes, and that tells you the degree to which everybody’s lips have been sealed in this process. There is so little that we know about it, other than the charges. For example, we don’t even know for certain the identity of the three members of the independent commission that will sit in judgement. The trio was assembled by Murray Rosen, chair of the Premier League’s judicial panel at the time. Some reports suggest Rosen named himself to the panel, but that is unconfirmed.

Anyway, if the hearing concluded in Dec. 2024, why it is taking so long for the panel to issue a verdict?

Correct.

We’re in the realm of speculation here, but there are several reasons cited by sports lawyers.

The first is that this is a massive, hugely complicated case. We’re not even certain of the exact number of charges. It came to be known as the “115 charges” case because that’s the number of bullet points in the original document, but according to multiple reports, the number of individual rule breaches in the document is 130, though it’s possible that some are overlapping (i.e. one action violates multiple rules).

It’s also possible, as some reports have suggested, that since the original document was issued, more charges were added, most likely relating to failure to cooperate. Whatever the number, each of the charges must be proved individually with specific evidence.

Furthermore, many of the charges in practice allege deliberate intent to mislead regulators and/or obstruct investigators. The panel isn’t just deciding whether City breached spending regulations, but whether they intentionally breached them and then covered it up to violate the spirit of the rules and, later, knowingly withheld evidence. To make an analogy, it’s the difference between speeding on the highway and speeding on the highway while remotely manipulating the police officer’s radar gun and then spewing a bunch of sovereign citizen nonsense to intentionally screw up your traffic stop. The burden of proof is far higher in the latter case.

Bear in mind that the panel won’t just be issuing a verdict and a sentence. It will be issuing what are known as “written reasons” detailing how it arrived at its conclusions. These “written reasons” could form the basis of any appeal — whether by City or by the Premier League — and therefore need to be “bullet-proof” when it comes to scrutiny.

Still… They’ve had more than a year to issue a verdict since the hearing concluded in Dec. 2024 and, presumably, they have staff to help them…

That’s where another factor comes in. It’s highly likely that the panel members aren’t working on this full-time. You’d assume all three have day jobs and other commitments; presumably, the panel allocated a certain amount of time to hear and deliberate on the case, but it proved to be far more complex than anticipated, and so they members have had to work around their calendars, finding time as and when.

“The members of the independent commission have undoubtedly had other commitments since the hearing ended and they will be acutely aware of making the decision as robust against appeal as possible, given the unprecedented scrutiny this ruling will attract,” said Borson.

Why wouldn’t more time have been allocated to the deliberations?

That’s another mystery. I guess if you want top-notch legal and financial experts to deliberate, you have to accept that they will be in demand elsewhere. This isn’t a jury that’s being sequestered in a room; these are senior figures who handle very important cases in their everyday lives. They can’t just check out indefinitely.

There’s another potential explanation here. While it’s a remote possibility, it would help explain a number of the mysteries surrounding this case.

What’s that?

What if, separate from the arbitration proceedings, the Premier League and City are trying to hammer out some sort of settlement deal? After all, the Premier League is nothing more than its 20 member clubs. If they all agree on an outcome, that’s that. Now, I think it’s unlikely, partly because clubs are notoriously leaky (and there hasn’t been a peep) and partly because it would be extremely difficult to agree to something all sides could accept.

What might it look like? City would need to admit to some level of wrongdoing and take some level of punishment, while rival clubs would need to drop threats of legal action to recover damages.

How would one even do this? Maybe by dumping the blame on the people running the club and arguing that City’s owners were entirely unaware and were, in fact, duped by the folks they employed. And then negotiating a sanction severe enough — massive fine? Some vacated titles? — that the “victim clubs” accept it, but not so severe that it ruins City’s chance of being competitive in the medium term. Why? Because otherwise, they’re not going to accept it and will take their chances with the commission and, possibly, the appeal.

Again, I think it’s highly unlikely, but it would explain why deliberations are taking so long. And it would give the Premier League closure and allow it to move on. Because even when the verdict does come in, it’s highly likely that the losing side will appeal. And this will only drag the process out further, which is not good for the Premier League.



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