• War has reduced global oil supply by 13%, says IMF chief.
• ME conflict to dominate next week’s IMF, WB meetings.
• Barring war, IMF had expected small upgrades in outlook.

The war in the Middle East will lead to higher inflation and slower global growth, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told Reuters on Monday, ahead of a forecast for the world economy planned by the global lender for next week.

The war has triggered the worst-ever disruption in global energy supply, with millions of barrels of oil production shuttered due to Iran’s effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for shipping one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas. 

Even if the conflict is swiftly resolved, the IMF is set to reduce its forecast for economic growth and bump up its outlook for inflation, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, said.

The war is expected to dominate discussions among finance officials from around the world at next week’s spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington.

The Fund is expected to release a range of scenarios in its upcoming World Economic Outlook due on April 14. 

It signalled a possible downgrade in a March 30 blog post, citing the asymmetric shock of the war and tighter financial conditions. Without the war, Georgieva said the IMF had expected a small upgrade in its projection for global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 as economies continue to recover from the pandemic.

“Instead, all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” said Georgieva, who will preview the spring meetings in a speech on Thursday. World Bank President Ajay Banga will present his view at an Atlantic Council event on Tuesday.

“We are in a world of elevated uncertainty,” the IMF chief said, citing geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, climate shocks and demographic shifts. “All of this means that after we recover from this shock, we need to keep our eyes open for the next one.”

The war has shrunk global oil supply by 13%, Georgieva said, with the impact rippling through oil and gas shipments and into related supply chains such as helium and fertilisers.

Even a rapid end to hostilities and a fairly rapid recovery will result in a “relatively small” downward revision of the growth forecast and an upward revision of its inflation forecast, she said. If the war is protracted, the effect on inflation and growth will be greater.

Poor countries will be hit harder

Poor, vulnerable countries with no energy reserves will be hardest hit, Georgieva added, noting that many countries had little to no fiscal space to help their populations weather the price increases caused by the war, which in turn also increased the prospects of social unrest.

Georgieva said some countries had already asked for funding help, but did not name them. She said the IMF could augment some existing lending programs to meet countries’ needs. Eighty-five percent of the IMF’s members are energy importers.

Broad energy subsidies were not the answer, she said, urging policymakers to avoid government payments that could further inflame inflationary pressures.

The impact has been asymmetric, hitting energy-importing countries hardest, but even energy exporters such as Qatar are feeling the effect from Iranian strikes against their production facilities.

Qatar expects it will take three to five years to restore 17% of its natural gas production because of the damage, Georgieva said, while the International Energy Agency has reported 72 energy facilities have been damaged in the war, one-third of which have suffered significant damage.

“Even if the war is to stop today, there would be a lingering negative impact to the rest of the world,” she said.

Food security a concern

After the US and Israel attacked on February 28, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending the price of crude oil and liquefied natural gas sharply higher. The international Brent crude benchmark settled near $110 on Monday, with cash benchmarks sourced to the Middle East at a substantial premium to that price.

The heads of the IMF, IEA and World Bank said last week they would form a coordinated effort to assess the energy and economic effects of the war.

Georgieva said the IMF was also engaging with the United Nations’ World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organisation on food security.

The World Food Programme said in mid-March that millions of people will face acute hunger if the war continues into June. Georgieva said the IMF did not see a food crisis yet, but that could happen if the delivery of fertilisers were impaired.

Zendaya has revealed the surprising role she played in her mother’s transformation into a “walking piece of art,” confessing that she was the one who originally convinced Claire Stoermer to get her very first tattoo at the age of 50. 

Speaking on The Jennifer Hudson Show during the Friday, 3 April episode, the 29-year-old actress explained that she even went as far as drawing the initial design herself. 

Since that first appointment, however, it seems Claire has developed a bit of an obsession with the ink parlour. 

Zendaya told Hudson that her mother now calls her randomly to announce she is getting a new one, adding, “She’s covered now. She’s like a walking piece of art.”

The Drama star is certainly no stranger to tattoos herself, famously sporting a small lowercase “T” near her ribcage as a tribute to her partner, Tom Holland. 

That particular bit of ink made its debut at the 2025 Golden Globes, the same night the Spider-Man: Brand New Day co-stars announced their engagement to the world. 

Neither Zendaya nor Holland has officially confirmed the marriage rumours, but the actress has certainly been leaning into the bridal aesthetic while promoting her latest film, The Drama. 

As fans continue to hunt for clues regarding her real-life relationship status, Zendaya remains focused on her professional successes. 

Her new film, The Drama, which also stars Robert Pattinson, is currently showing in theatres. 

Whether she’s helping fans find wedding dresses or inspiring her mother’s extensive tattoo collection, the Emmy winner clearly enjoys keeping her inner circle, and her audience, on their toes.

Lil Nas X has been granted a path to having his felony assault charges completely dismissed after a Los Angeles judge approved his entry into a mental health diversion program. 

The rapper, whose real name is Montero Hill, appeared in court on Monday where Judge Alan Schneider ruled that the charges would be cleared, provided Hill follows a strict treatment plan and stays out of trouble for the next two years. 

The decision comes after the judge determined that Hill’s actions during an arrest last August were related to his bipolar diagnosis and represented “aberrant from his normal conduct.”

The legal trouble began last summer when Hill was arrested after being seen wandering along Ventura Boulevard wearing only his underwear and cowboy boots. 

He originally faced three counts of battery against a police officer and one count of resisting an executive officer, pleading not guilty to all charges. 

Had he been convicted, the musician could have faced up to five years in prison. 

However, the court took a more supportive stance during the recent hearing, with Judge Schneider noting that Hill “appears to be doing very well” and remarked that “when treated, he is much better off, and society is much better off.”

Hill’s defence lawyer, Christy O’Connor, informed the court that the star had already taken significant steps toward recovery by voluntarily checking himself into a treatment facility in Arizona for nearly two months of inpatient care. 

This proactive approach seems to have weighed heavily in the judge’s decision to offer a diversion rather than a standard criminal trial. 

The court is now scheduled to decide on the final dismissal of the charges in April 2028, as long as Hill continues to meet the requirements of the judicial order over the next 24 months.

Speaking outside the courtroom following the ruling, Hill expressed his relief and gratitude regarding the outcome. 

He told Rolling Stone, “I’m thankful. Just very thankful,” while acknowledging the severity of the situation by adding that “it could have been much worse.” 

By prioritising mental health support over incarceration, the ruling marks a significant turning point for the artist as he works to move past the incident and maintain his recent progress.