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Rail fares to be frozen in England next year

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Rail fares to be frozen in England next year


Rail fares in England next year are to be frozen for the first time in 30 years, the government has announced.

The freeze until March 2027 will apply to regulated fares, which includes season tickets and off-peak returns.

The most recent fare rise, in March 2025, was 4.6%. Rail fares traditionally have gone up in January, based on the July rate of the retail price index (RPI) + 1% – although this formula has not always been followed.

The announcement comes days before the chancellor sets out the government’s financial plans in the Budget on Wednesday, with Rachel Reeves indicating that cutting the cost of living will be a key focus.

However, at the same time the chancellor is also widely expected to increase taxes to help fill a multibillion-pound gap in her spending plans.

About 45% of rail fares are regulated by the government in England, Wales and Scotland – but the freeze only relates to travel in England. The announcement also only applies to services run by England-based train operating companies.

Regulated fares include season tickets covering most commuter routes, some off-peak return tickets on long-distance journeys and flexible tickets for travel in and around major cities.

Train operators are free to set prices for unregulated fares, but they typically rise by similar amounts.

The government said freezing rail fares was intended to “directly limit inflation” by holding down “a major component of everyday costs”.

Since 2021, the annual increase has come in March instead of January.

A government source acknowledged it was possible unregulated fares would still rise, but insisted they usually followed regulated fares.

Unregulated fares increased by 5.5% in the year to March 2025, 1.1% above regulated fares – with a total increase in rail fares of 5.1% in that period.

Challenged over whether other ticket prices would rise to compensate for the freeze on regulated fares, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander insisted the policy was “fully funded”.

She told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme that regulated fares have tended to inform the price of unregulated fares and they normally “track against each other”.

Pressed on whether the policy would mean the government has less to spend on upgrading the transport system, Alexander said investment in the rail network would be protected “because we recognise that investing in the infrastructure of this country is the right long-term decision”.

The Rail Delivery Group, a representative body made up of the UK’s rail operators, said the freeze would be “good news for customers”.

“We want our railways to thrive, that’s why we’re committed to working with government to ensure upcoming railway reforms deliver real benefits for customers,” a spokesperson said.

Since 1996, the government has regulated some train fares following the privatisation of British Rail.

The freeze marks the first point since then that fares will have been frozen, although there have been periods where price increases were below RPI, and a dip in prices following the financial crash in 2010.

The government estimates that the move will save commuters on more expensive routes more than £300.

The chancellor said the freeze was being put in place to help ease cost of living pressures, and make “travelling to work, school or to visit friends and family that bit easier”.

The transport secretary said it was part of “wider plans to rebuild Great British Railways”.

Great British Railways is a public body which is in the process of being set up, and is part of the government’s plans to bring parts of the railway system into public ownership.

The government has said it will take over the running and management of the tracks and trains, “ending years of fragmentation, driving up standards for passengers, and making journey easier and better value for money”.

The government has said part of its plans for the new body is to “gradually move away from annual blanket increases”.

Labour said passengers had faced “relentless” fare increases every year under the previous Tory government.

However, shadow transport secretary Richard Holden said: “In government, the Conservatives kept fares on the right track with below-inflation rises and consistently called for no further hikes to protect hard-working commuters.”



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Bessent says Argentina peso bet was ‘homerun deal’

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Bessent says Argentina peso bet was ‘homerun deal’


US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his risky US gamble on Argentina’s currency has paid off.

Bessent said American financial support had been repaid and the US no longer held any Argentine pesos in its exchange stabilisation fund.

The US had purchased the then-plunging currency last year in an effort to stave off further turmoil and boost the party of President Javier Milei, a key ally of President Donald Trump, in the run-up to national midterm elections.

The move sparked criticism from Democrats, who accused Bessent of risking taxpayer money on a country with a long history of financial turmoil.

In the end, Bessent said the manoeuvre had been a success.

“Stabilising a strong American ally – and making tens of millions in profit for Americans – is an America First homerun deal,” he wrote in an announcement on social media.

When the US moved to intervene in September, people were dumping the peso, mindful of the shocks they had experienced after previous elections and rattled by signs that Milei’s party might experience an upset in the mid-terms.

Bessent promised to do “what was needed” to stave off further drops in September. He announced a month later that the US had purchased pesos and agreed to extend a swap line to Argentina, allowing the country to exchange pesos for dollars.

The move helped to halt the falls in the currency, which saw further gains after Milei’s party clinched a landslide victory in the mid-term elections, though it has drifted lower more recently.

Argentina’s central bank said it settled the swap line in December. It ultimately traded just $2.5bn in pesos for dollars of a possible $20bn, according to a government report on deal.

The report said the US had also separately provided $872m in support involving reserves held at the IMF.

The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on that transaction.

“Getting your money back is a straight forward definition of a success,” said Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, even if he said tens of millions in profit was “small change” given the sums involved.

But he said big challenges continue to face the Argentine economy, given how much it spent last year from its reserves to prop up the currency.

“It’s been a short term success – Bessent got his money back,” he said. “I do remain worried that the Argentines are relying too heavily on the expectation that Secretary Bessent will ride to the rescue … and therefore aren’t showing enough urgency in their plans to rebuild their own reserves.”



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Housebuilders in focus as firms set to reveal figures amid sluggish market

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Housebuilders in focus as firms set to reveal figures amid sluggish market



Housebuilding giants will be centre stage next week as Persimmon, Vistry and Taylor Wimpey publish trading updates that are expected to offer a fresh snapshot of the UK housing market.

The updates will be closely watched by Government ministers, who have pledged to accelerate housebuilding, and by investors looking for signs of recovery and the Budget’s impact on the housing market as the UK heads into 2026.

Persimmon is due to publish a full-year trading statement on Tuesday, while Vistry will announce its fourth quarter trading statement on Wednesday and Taylor Wimpey a trading statement on Thursday.

UK housebuilding activity has remained in its deepest slump since the start of the pandemic, while the wider construction sector has been in contraction for a year, according to the latest S&P Global UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published on Wednesday.

The index rose slightly to 40.1 in December from 39.4 in November, remaining well below the 50-point level that signals growth, marking the 12th consecutive month of declining activity.

Survey respondents cited fragile confidence, weak demand and clients delaying decisions ahead of the autumn budget.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, said Persimmon “has been hamstrung by the wider factors over which it has little influence, including but not limited to a faltering domestic economy”.

However, Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighted that Persimmon’s homes are typically valued around 15% below the new-build national average, which “offers some resilience to ride current market challenges” and should provide some relief on building cost pressures.

Meanwhile Vistry, formerly Bovis Homes, has benefited from supportive government policy towards affordable housing, with average weekly sales rates rising by 11% between July and early November compared to the previous year, according to Hargreaves Lansdown.

On Friday, figures release by HMRC revealed UK house sales were 8% higher in November than a year earlier, with around 100,350 homes changing hands, an indication of some optimism in the market.

Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said: “With the budget done and dusted, uncertainty at least has been removed and those who put their moves on pause are returning to the market, encouraged by lower mortgage rates from some of the big lenders, with others expected to follow.

“As January progresses, well-priced homes continue to attract interest.”



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US job creation in 2025 slows to weakest since Covid

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US job creation in 2025 slows to weakest since Covid


The number of jobs created in the US grew only modestly in December, as a weak year for the employment market in the world’s largest economy drew to a close.

Employers added 50,000 jobs in the final month of 2025, according to Labor Department data, which was fewer than expected. But the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%.

Job gains last year were the smallest since 2020, when the Covid pandemic led to widespread cuts.

Businesses have been operating in an environment marked by US President Donald Trump’s dramatic policy changes, including tariffs, an immigration crackdown and cuts to government spending.

The US economy has held up in the face of these shifts, growing at an annual rate of 4.3% over the three months to September.

But the expansion – driven by steady consumer spending and a growth in exports – has not been accompanied by significant job creation.

On average, the US added just 49,000 roles per month in 2025, down from an estimated gain of two million a month the year before.

The Labor Department said the US also added 76,000 fewer new positions in October and November than previously estimated.

Retailers and manufacturers were among the sectors reporting losses last month, which were offset by hiring at health care employers, bars and restaurants.

The data underscores the mixed dynamics facing job-seekers in the US, where hiring has cooled markedly over the last year but fears of mass layoffs have not materialised.

The US Federal Reserve central bank has responded to the slowdown by cutting its key lending rate in hopes of giving the economy a boost, despite concerns that inflation is still bubbling.

But the central bank is divided about how much lower borrowing costs should go.

Analysts said the latest figures – which showed the jobless rate recovering to the 4.4% level where it stood in September – would do little to resolve those debates.

“Today’s report confirms what we think has been evident for some time—the labor market is no longer working in favour of job seekers,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

But she added: “Until the data provide a clearer direction, a divided Fed is likely to stay that way. Lower rates are likely coming this year, but the markets may have to be patient.”



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