More than six months ago, Walter Clayton Jr. won Most Outstanding Player honors on one of the most thrilling runs to the national championship since Kemba Walker led UConn in 2011. The Florida Gators were not viewed as a top-tier team entering last season, though, checking in at 21st in the preseason AP poll and 24th in last year’s version of these tiers.

Things can change quickly in college basketball, which means, like last season’s champions, some of the following teams will be in a different tier by the end of 2025-26. Still, we have ordered 80 of the sport’s 365 Division I teams into tiers by their NCAA tournament chances.

Yes, there are clear championship and Final Four contenders (newsflash: Duke will be good again). But there are also teams with second-weekend potential that could fall to the bubble (Auburn has lost a lot of talent and a head coach), likely bubble teams that could pull off an upset (Washington is intriguing), teams moving in the wrong direction, teams ready to take a step (or two) forward — and everything in between.

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf organize the chaos of that wide range of potential outcomes by sorting 80 noteworthy programs into 10 tiers as the Nov. 3 season tipoff draws closer.

Jump to:
Title favorites | Final Four contenders | Second-weekend threats | Can go dancing | Potential bid thieves | ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ | Check back next year | Comeback kids | 2 outliers | Cinderellas

Tier I: National championship favorites

Purdue Boilermakers
Florida Gators
Houston Cougars
UConn Huskies

These were the four teams that received first-place votes in the preseason AP poll and the four atop ESPN’s preseason top 25. In other words: These are your national title favorites entering the season.

Purdue is eyeing its first national championship, led by Wooden Award favorite Braden Smith and fellow potential All-American Trey Kaufman-Renn — the best inside-outside duo in the country. Two other starters also return for Matt Painter, who then added double-double machine Oscar Cluff from the transfer portal plus highly regarded international prospect Omer Mayer.

Florida is a legitimate threat to go back-to-back, especially with the way Todd Golden finished his reloading efforts last spring. The Gators replaced do-everything NCAA tournament hero Clayton with Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee, two high-level offensive guards with real playmaking chops when the ball is in their hands. They also return the best frontcourt in the country, headlined by Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon.

After falling devastatingly short in the title game last April, Houston will look to finish the job this season. The Cougars were able to keep Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler in school, and they are bringing in three top-25 recruits as reinforcements. It might take some time for the newcomers to get up to speed on playing Kelvin Sampson-coached defense, but we have faith they will be there in March.

Rounding out the top tier is UConn, which took an inevitable step back last season after winning back-to-back national championships in 2023 and 2024. But Dan Hurley and the Huskies are poised for a return to the national title discussion. Tarris Reed Jr. is back down low, and the trio of Solo Ball, Braylon Mullins and Alex Karaban is as good as it gets from an offensive and shooting perspective. The addition of Silas Demary Jr. should solve their point guard issues. — Borzello

Tier II: Final Four contenders

BYU Cougars
St. John’s Red Storm
Louisville Cardinals
Michigan Wolverines
Duke Blue Devils
Kentucky Wildcats
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Arkansas Razorbacks

Every team on this list has the potential to move into the national title conversation with the right mix of chemistry and execution. That starts with BYU, which owned the nation’s best offense in the last two months of 2024-25 as the program reached the Sweet 16 in Kevin Young’s first year at the helm. Now, the Cougars have added AJ Dybantsa, a five-star prospect who has his sights set on the No. 1 spot in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Also in that race for the top overall pick is Duke freshman Cameron Boozer, the leader of a Blue Devils crew with ESPN’s top 2025 recruiting class. Ten years ago, a similarly youthful and talented Duke squad captured the final national title of Mike Krzyzewski’s reign.

Texas Tech and Michigan are led by preseason All-Americans — JT Toppin and Yaxel Lendeborg, respectively — following second-weekend runs a season ago. St. John’s has arguably the strongest transfer class in the nation, a group that will become even more compelling if former All-Big East forward Bryce Hopkins regains his old form after battling injuries. And Kentucky spent millions to add talent around the SEC Preseason Player of the Year Otega Oweh, headlined by Arizona State transfer and projected top-five pick Jayden Quaintance, whose expected return to the court later this season after suffering an ACL tear in February could elevate the Wildcats into the title favorites tier.

Finally, Louisville (Mikel Brown Jr.) and Arkansas (Darius Acuff Jr.) have added a pair of dynamic guards with NBA dreams. — Medcalf

Tier III: Second-weekend threats

Arizona Wildcats
Illinois Fighting Illini
UCLA Bruins
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide
Iowa State Cyclones
Auburn Tigers
Wisconsin Badgers
Tennessee Volunteers
Kansas Jayhawks
Creighton Bluejays
Michigan State Spartans

These teams have a couple more question marks than the tier above, but history suggests a few will play themselves into the Final Four discussion and a top-five rank at some point this season.

Arizona and Illinois are loaded with different types of talent. Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd will rely heavily on five-star freshmen Koa Peat and Brayden Burries, while Illinois’ Brad Underwood went the overseas route to add five players with Balkan ties to the rotation. How quickly the newcomers get up to speed will be key for both programs.

Perhaps the most fascinating team in this tier is Auburn, which had a seismic coaching change when Bruce Pearl retired as the Tigers’ head coach only six weeks before tipoff, passing the reigns to his son Steven. Tahaad Pettiford is one of the most electric point guards in the country, while Keyshawn Hall and KeShawn Murphy are proven high-major transfers.

A few of these teams are more accustomed to higher ranks, two of which will lean on incoming top-five recruits. Kansas will look to bounce back from back-to-back disappointing seasons, as Bill Self welcomes Darryn Peterson, another potential No. 1 pick next June. And Tennessee loses five of its top scorers but brings in star freshman Nate Ament and Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie. Now the question is whether Rick Barnes can get the Vols to maintain the levels of elite defense from the past six seasons.

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Vols’ Rick Barnes explains how style of play has changed

Tennessee’s Barnes describes how he has seen different systems through his career and goes back in the vault to implement those styles into his team today.

Then there’s Michigan State, which brings four rotation players back from a team that won 30 games and a Big Ten regular-season title. If coach Tom Izzo can find a difference-maker on the perimeter among his newcomers, this tier will be one too low for Sparty. — Borzello

Tier IV: Can win a tournament game

North Carolina Tar Heels
NC State Wolfpack
Oregon Ducks
USC Trojans
San Diego State Aztecs
Ohio State Buckeyes
Texas Longhorns
Baylor Bears
Oklahoma Sooners
Missouri Tigers
Virginia Cavaliers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Cincinnati Bearcats
Ole Miss Rebels

For some programs, inclusion in this tier will seem like a letdown. For others, winning an NCAA tournament game would mean a successful season. The latter group starts with Will Wade and NC State. A season after the Wolfpack won just 12 games, Wade takes over the helm with a new roster led by Darrion Williams — one of the top available transfers who starred for Texas Tech in the Elite Eight — in a debut season that could yield immediate results.

Iowa also falls under that banner. New Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum and last season’s Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz are at their third stop together following successful campaigns at Drake and Northwest Missouri State. NCAA tournament victories for Texas (first season with Sean Miller), Virginia (first season for Ryan Odom) and Ohio State (Jake Diebler’s second full season) would also be celebrated as positive steps under new leadership.

The same can’t be said for North Carolina. The Tar Heels landing in this tier would have seemed blasphemous only a few years ago, but after they stumbled into last season’s NCAA tournament and Hubert Davis’ job status became the subject of hot-seat talk, a tournament victory could be the only way to stabilize this program. If it happens, five-star recruit Caleb Wilson will likely play a role in that mission.

Cincinnati’s Wes Miller could hold off further buzz about a regime change with an NCAA tournament victory. And Baylor, Oregon, USC and San Diego State will have to regroup to win big after losing talent to the portal. But Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou (No. 9 in the SC Next 100); Oregon’s Nate Bittle and Jackson Shelstad (All-Big Ten preseason selections); USC’s Rodney Rice (13.8 PPG at Maryland last season); and San Diego State’s Miles Byrd (second-team All-Mountain West in 2024-25) should give those four programs a chance to advance. — Medcalf

Tier V: Dangerous bubble teams

Indiana Hoosiers
Texas A&M Aggies
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
SMU Mustangs
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Vanderbilt Commodores
Marquette Golden Eagles
Washington Huskies
Kansas State Wildcats
Georgia Bulldogs
VCU Rams
Boise State Broncos
Utah State Aggies
Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This list is a mix. New coaches have changed the fortunes of select teams, while star power is the reason for hype around the rest.

Tucker DeVries played only a handful of games at West Virginia last season, but the two-time Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year followed his father, new Indiana head coach Darian DeVries, to Bloomington. The Hoosiers lost five players who averaged at least 9.0 points last season but could still be a bubble threat in DeVries’ first year at the helm after regrouping around his son, a potential All-American.

Bucky McMillan has an intriguing group for his first season at Texas A&M, too. On paper, a roster featuring Pop Isaacs (Texas Tech), Jacari Lane (North Alabama) and Mackenzie Mgbako (Indiana) — all transfers who averaged double figures at their programs last season — should be squarely on the bubble with the potential for more if the Aggies develop the right chemistry.

Second-team All-American P.J. Haggerty‘s decision to transfer from Memphis to Kansas State was arguably the biggest portal move of the spring. He and Notre Dame’s Markus Burton, a second-team All-ACC performer last season, will be difference-makers for teams looking to flip the script after sub-.500 campaigns. If the Wildcats and Fighting Irish make the NCAA tournament, few opponents would have players more capable than those two dynamic guards.

Utah State’s Mason Falslev (15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 39% 3P%) and Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard (18.9 PPG, 3.1 APG) are two of the country’s top players on teams that won 20-plus games and reached the NCAA tournament in 2024-25. Their squads have lost key players, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they moved up a tier by the end of the season.

Washington is probably the most intriguing team on this list. Danny Sprinkle’s crew finished 13-18 last season despite landing top-ranked players in the transfer portal. Yet, the arrival and return of Wesley Yates III (redshirted for the Huskies in 2023-24 before transferring to USC in 2024-25) and the addition of his former Trojans teammate Desmond Claude (15.8 PPG) means the Huskies have the look of a dangerous bubble team. — Medcalf

Tier VI: Total rebuild = ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Miami Hurricanes
Maryland Terrapins
Villanova Wildcats
Xavier Musketeers
West Virginia Mountaineers

Even in this era of the transfer portal and widespread attrition, it stands out when new coaches take over programs with a completely clean slate. Miami, Maryland and West Virginia returned zero players, while Villanova welcomed back one player plus a redshirt and Xavier didn’t return anyone who played a minute of last season.

Miami and first-year head coach Jai Lucas have the most reason for optimism among that group. The Hurricanes opted for a balance of freshmen, transfers and international additions — and there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the arrival of high-major transfers Malik Reneau (Indiana), Tre Donaldson (Michigan) and Ernest Udeh (TCU), as well as potential one-and-done freshman Shelton Henderson.

New Maryland head coach Buzz Williams has had success at every program he has led, winning NCAA tournament games with three different schools. Can he make it four? A few players followed him from Texas A&M, and he brought in three other transfers who averaged double-figure scoring.

Kevin Willard (Villanova) and Richard Pitino (Xavier) placed a heavy emphasis on the portal after taking over their respective Big East programs, but the most individual buzz surrounds Wildcats freshman guard Acaden Lewis, a top-35 recruit who should have the ball in his hands a ton this season.

West Virginia will hope Ross Hodge can bring some stability to the program after cycling through three different head coaches in the past three seasons. He has coached high-level defenses at North Texas and will hope North Dakota transfer Treysen Eaglestaff — who scored a Summit League-record 51 points in last season’s conference tournament — carries things on the offensive end. — Borzello

Tier VII: Backward step looms?

Clemson Tigers
Memphis Tigers
Saint Mary’s Gaels
New Mexico Lobos
Colorado State Rams
George Mason Patriots

This tier represents the flip side of the transfer portal boost higher-ranked teams will benefit from this season. Last season, this group of teams combined to win 165 total games, and five of the six reached the NCAA tournament. Now, they all enter this season with lower expectations after losing key players who helped their respective programs reach those heights.

We’ll never know whether Penny Hardaway would have extended the best season of his tenure at Memphis — 29 wins en route to the American Athletic Conference regular-season and tournament titles — had Tyrese Hunter been healthy in the postseason. With Hunter, Haggerty and two other players who averaged double figures last season gone, the Tigers could have a rocky path ahead. The same goes for Clemson, which lost All-ACC selection Chase Hunter and the entire starting five from a team that earned a 5-seed last March.

Meanwhile, in the Mountain West, New Mexico head coach Richard Pitino left for Xavier and the Lobos’ leading scorer, Donovan Dent, transferred to UCLA. Nique Clifford (18.9 PPG), who helped Colorado State reach the second round of the NCAA tournament, moved on to the NBA, while his head coach, Niko Medved, left for Minnesota. Both runs were fun while they lasted.

A step backward for Saint Mary’s demands some context: Randy Bennett hasn’t won fewer than 20 games in a season that wasn’t impacted by the pandemic since 2006-07, but WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marčiulionis is gone, and another 29-win season and second-round trip could be out of reach in 2025-26. — Medcalf

Tier VIII: The (potential) comeback kids

Syracuse Orange
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Georgetown Hoyas
Virginia Tech Hokies
LSU Tigers

When it comes to pure talent, Syracuse is in great shape. The Orange brought back preseason All-ACC selection J.J. Starling and former top-10 recruit Donnie Freeman, and they added Georgia Tech transfer Naithan George — one of the most coveted point guards in the portal — and a pair of top-35 recruits, including Kiyan Anthony, Carmelo’s son.

On the surface, winning 21 games and the College Basketball Crown is nothing to bounce back from. But Nebraska didn’t make the Big Ten tournament after losing five in a row to end the regular season, and the return of Rienk Mast will be impactful after the All-Big Ten selection missed last season because of a knee injury. Four other players who started games for the Cornhuskers in 2024-25 are also back.

Virginia Tech is a potential NCAA tournament team. Neoklis Avdalas should be one of the best international players in college, and head coach Mike Young is high on West Virginia transfer Amani Hansberry. Throw in the return of NBA prospect Tobi Lawal and three other rotation players, and this team has the potential to move up in the ACC standings.

Ed Cooley took Georgetown from a 9-23 record (2-18 in the Big East) in Year 1 to 18-16 (8-12) in Year 2 — and the Hoyas are ready to take another jump under his leadership. Cooley signed six power conference transfers, led by former Arizona guard KJ Lewis, and welcomes back starting point guard Malik Mack. Those two should form one of the best backcourts in the Big East.

LSU, on the other hand, is in a tough spot. Matt McMahon’s team went 3-15 in the SEC last season, so there’s plenty of room to improve. But in a conference that sent a record 14 teams to the NCAA tournament last season, there’s also a pretty difficult-to-crack ceiling without dramatic improvement. That said, the incoming transfer class is talented and should right the ship. — Borzello

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Matt McMahon expresses confidence in LSU’s returners and transfers

McMahon shares his vision while describing the Tigers’ portal additions and lists multiple returners he believes are on the verge of breakout seasons.

Tier IX: Two teams we pounded the table for

Borzello: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

I went back and forth between Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, but expectations for the Hokies seem higher, so I’ll go with the Yellow Jackets. Simply put, being picked 13th in the preseason ACC poll seems low for the talent coach Damon Stoudamire has on his roster this season. This is a team that racked up wins over Duke, North Carolina and Clemson in 2023-24, then finished .500 overall and in the ACC last season.

In Stoudamire’s third season, can Tech take the next step? It starts on the interior with preseason second-team All-ACC selection Baye Ndongo and potential one-and-done freshman Mouhamed Sylla. Ndongo has been one of the more productive bigs in the league the past two seasons, and Sylla is a rim-running, shot-blocking extraordinaire with explosiveness.

Returnees Jaeden Mustaf and Kowacie Reeves Jr., along with redshirt freshman Dyllan Thompson and Miami Ohio transfer Kam Craft, all bring size on the wings. The key to Tech’s season will come at the point guard spot, where Stoudamire will rely on Pacific transfer Lamar Washington. He’s 6-foot-5 but can really pass and brings two-way ability.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say Tech is a surefire tournament team, but with the size the Jackets have throughout the roster, and Ndongo and Sylla starring down low, they won’t be overmatched in any game. I like them to be in the bubble conversation come February.

Medcalf: Minnesota Golden Gophers

Former Minnesota head coach Ben Johnson had everything you would think a head coach would need to get proper support from a school. He played high school basketball and football in Minneapolis, was a star for Minnesota in college, then spent time as an assistant under Richard Pitino before succeeding him. But Johnson ultimately landed the Gophers’ head coaching gig amid the most turbulent time in recent college basketball history, and the school and its boosters failed to offer the NIL support they needed to compete.

By contrast, Niko Medved — also a Minneapolis native — navigated those challenges at a program (Colorado State) that had more resource limitations than Minnesota. He understands this landscape and program. And he has assembled a team full of underdogs, including former North Carolina reserve Cade Tyson.

This is where the portal is a plus for a coach like Medved: this team doesn’t know or care about the past at Minnesota, they just want to win. And Medved has won 20 or more games in five of the past six seasons, reaching the NCAA tournament three times during that stretch, too. The Gophers, meanwhile, have just one winning season in that same span. Medved could make an immediate impact at Minnesota.

Tier X: Potential March Cinderellas

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Towson Tigers
Yale Bulldogs
High Point Panthers
Liberty Flames
Vermont Catamounts
Chattanooga Mocs
Illinois State Redbirds
Siena Saints

We need one or two of these teams to bring chaos to the bracket in March. The 2025 NCAA tournament saw no teams lower than a 12-seed pull off a first-round upset and no mid-major teams advance to the Sweet 16. Will any of these teams end that trend in a few months?

There are four leagues that should produce a first-round upset threat: the CAA, Missouri Valley, SoCon and Big West. We included both UNCW and Towson from the CAA (Charleston isn’t far behind), but the other three all have teams worth watching that didn’t quite make the cut here. We went with Illinois State and its four returning starters in the Valley, but Northern Iowa and Bradley should be right there. Chattanooga edged out Furman in the SoCon for us, while UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine should both be factors out of the Big West. UConn transfer Aidan Mahaney should be one of the most impactful “transfer-down” players in the country for UCSB.

They don’t have the most built-for-March roster, but Liberty could be the best team from a one-bid league during the regular season. The Flames won Conference USA in 2024-25, and Ritchie McKay welcomes back several of their key players. Three returning starters, including all-league forward Zach Cleveland, lead the way, and former Minnesota forward Isaiah Ihnen is healthy after playing just nine games and averaging double-figures in his first season with the Flames.

Yale and Vermont are bracket staples, although John Becker and the Catamounts had a “down season” in 2024-25, finishing second in the America East. James Jones and the Bulldogs lose stars John Poulakidas and Bez Mbeng but could still have the best player in the Ivy League in forward Nick Townsend.

Finally, we went with a deep sleeper as our final team in this tier. Siena went just 14-18 overall and 9-11 in the MAAC in Gerry McNamara’s first season, but that was a 10-win improvement on the Saints’ 2023-24 campaign. They return three starters, led by all-league guard Justice Shoats, and six rotation players. Freshman Christian Jones should also make an immediate impact with his speed and playmaking. — Borzello