Sports
Real or just a mirage? Let’s rate the sustainability of 32 NFL surprises through two games
We’re two weeks into the 2025 NFL season, which means narratives are beginning to take hold — prematurely. The NFL’s 10 remaining 2-0 teams cannot all be Super Bowl-bound. (History confirms some in that group won’t reach the playoffs.) The group of 0-2 teams stands 11 deep entering Week 3, but those teams are not all hopeless. What all 32 teams have in common is a need to either reverse an early trend that stands in the way of progress, or to continue one that might help them reach their destination. ESPN’s 32 team reporters identified such a trend for their teams, also sizing up whether that trend is likely to continue over the next 15 games (and perhaps beyond).
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

AFC EAST
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The early surprise: The Bills lead the league in rushing attempts.
The verdict: Real to an extent. The offense under coordinator Joe Brady has put an emphasis on a productive run game to support quarterback Josh Allen. That will continue as the season progresses, especially behind a strong offensive line that has returned the same starting five from last year and with James Cook starting the season off on a strong note. It also helps if the Bills can build leads early in games, like in their Week 2 win over the Jets. With Allen and the passing potential, staying first in attempts seems unlikely, but emphasizing the running game will continue. — Alaina Getzenberg
1:19
Woody: Chiefs ‘have nothing on offense that threatens any team’
Damien Woody calls out the Chiefs’ offensive deficiencies following a loss to the Eagles that saw them start 0-2 for the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career.
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The early surprise: The Dolphins rank 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game.
The verdict: Real. Miami had issues running the ball in 2024 as well, finishing 21st in rushing yards. The Dolphins attempted to address the issue by adding two new offensive guards and drafting power back Ollie Gordon II, but they’ve already had to replace the entire right side of their offensive line because of injuries, and Gordon has not been a consistent part of the game plan through two weeks. Starter De’Von Achane has picked up where he left off last season, when he led NFL running backs in catches and receiving yards, but there’s no sign so far that Miami’s production on the ground is a mirage. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
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The early surprise: The Patriots are averaging 10.5 accepted penalties per game.
The verdict: Mirage. New England was called for 12 accepted penalties for 75 yards in its win over the Dolphins, which came after getting flagged for nine accepted penalties for 70 yards in a season-opening loss. The Patriots haven’t reflected the buttoned-up team one would expect with Mike Vrabel at the helm. That shouldn’t continue, particularly with false starts, as starting offensive tackles Will Campbell and Morgan Moses have combined for six. — Mike Reiss
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The early surprise: The Jets rank 21st in yards allowed, 30th in points allowed.
The verdict: Mirage. They’re not this bad on defense. They have 14 holdovers from a defense that finished fourth in yards allowed, so you know there’s talent. They have former All-Pros on all three levels — tackle Quinnen Williams, linebacker Quincy Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner. Part of the problem is they’re still learning a new defense, a hybrid system that blends schemes used by coach Aaron Glenn and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Shoddy tackling isn’t helping matters. — Rich Cimini

AFC NORTH
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The early surprise: Mark Andrews‘ lack of productivity.
The verdict: Real. Andrews has surprisingly not been part of the Ravens’ game plan, recording two catches for 7 yards in the first two games of the season. He used to be Lamar Jackson‘s favorite target, but he has a total of four targets despite tight end Isaiah Likely being sidelined with a foot injury. Andrews, 30, just isn’t getting many opportunities, running 38 routes, which ranks 24th among tight ends. It’s difficult to think Andrews’ target share will increase going forward, especially with Likely expected to return in the next couple of weeks. — Jamison Hensley
1:25
Why Stephen A. thinks Bengals can succeed without Joe Burrow
Stephen A. Smith says the Bengals could still be competitive if Joe Burrow returns later this season.
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The early surprise: The Bengals can’t run the ball.
The verdict: Mirage. After Monday’s games, the Bengals dropped to last in the league in yards per rushing attempt (2.4). Cincinnati had high hopes for running back Chase Brown entering the season. Bengals coach Zac Taylor said there were a few yards left on the table in a Week 2 win against the Jaguars. With Jake Browning now at quarterback in place of Joe Burrow, there is a chance the offense could find a bit more balance, which could lead to increased rushing efficiency from Brown. — Ben Baby
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The early surprise: The Browns’ retooled running game has produced only one run of 10-plus yards.
The verdict: Mirage. The run game was a point of emphasis for coach Kevin Stefanski and Cleveland’s offense this offseason, but the Browns are averaging 3.6 yards per carry and generating few explosive plays. The run blocking hasn’t been optimal, but the team’s run block win rate ranks 19th. The debut of rookie running back Quinshon Judkins was also a promising sign. Judkins produced the team’s lone explosive run in Sunday’s loss to the Ravens and registered a team-high 61 rushing yards, 36 of which came after first contact. The Browns’ run game should pick up as Judkins gets more comfortable. — Daniel Oyefusi
1:17
Why Quinshon Judkins is a top-25 RB option for Week 3
Field Yates ranks Quinshon Judkins as a top-25 RB for Week 3 with fantasy upside, though a potential suspension still looms.
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The early surprise: The Steelers’ defense ranks 29th in yards and points allowed per game.
The verdict: Real. Despite fielding the league’s highest-paid defense by nearly $25 million, the Steelers’ defensive issues have been glaring through two weeks. Not only have the Steelers allowed opponents to score at least 30 points in the past two weeks, but each team had a 100-yard rusher. The Steelers rank 28th with 149.5 rushing yards allowed per game. Because they can’t stop the run, the pass rush also hasn’t gotten going, and the Steelers are tied for 25th with 1.5 sacks per game. From top to bottom, the defense is abysmal, and there don’t appear to be any easy fixes on the horizon. — Brooke Pryor

AFC SOUTH
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The early surprise: C.J. Stroud‘s high pressure rate.
The verdict: Real. Stroud’s line has the ninth-worst pass block win rate (55.6%) according to ESPN Analytics/NFL Next Gen Stats, and that’s not a mirage. It’s a full malfunction, from the playcalling to getting pass catchers open down the field, to the pass protection plan, to the Texans’ offensive line struggling to block and sometimes Stroud holding the ball. The Texans’ season will flop if they don’t get this fixed, especially with better AFC opponents coming down the pike in Kansas City, Baltimore and Buffalo. — DJ Bien-Aime
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The early surprise: The Colts have one of the NFL’s most potent offenses.
The verdict: Real. Indy is on the kind of offensive tear you might expect in the Peyton Manning era, scoring on its first 10 drives of the season and not punting through two games. No one is predicting that audacious level of consistency, but the Colts’ combination of decisiveness from QB Daniel Jones, savvy playcalling from coach Shane Steichen and a versatile stable of offensive weapons positions them to remain a dangerous offense. The Colts rank second in offensive expected points added (23.6) and are tied for first in yards per play (6.5). — Stephen Holder
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The early surprise: The Jaguars lead the NFL in rushing.
The verdict: Mirage-ish. Liam Coen took Tampa Bay’s run game from last in the NFL in 2023 to fourth last season, so there was an expectation that he would be able to significantly improve the Jaguars’ ground game in 2025. There’s no question the additions along the offensive line and the two young running backs have helped, along with Travis Etienne Jr.’s resurgence. The Jaguars will be a better running team than they were last year (101.7 yards per game), so that part is real. Expecting them to lead the league over the course of the season is the mirage. — Michael DiRocco
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The early surprise: The Titans’ third-down distance is the worst in the league.
The verdict: Real. The Titans’ average distance to go on third downs is 9.9 yards, third worst in the league. Tennessee has faced 31 third downs, with 21 of them being third-and-7 or longer. No team has had more third-and-long situations. Most of the problems come from early penalties in drives. The Titans have been penalized 23 times for 193 yards in two games. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has been sacked 11 times. — Turron Davenport

AFC WEST
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The early surprise: The Broncos are tied for 28th in the league in turnover margin.
The verdict: Real. If the Broncos really consider themselves ready to slug it out with the AFC heavyweights — and they spent a lot of time this offseason saying they were, from coach Sean Payton on down — they cannot live on the minus side of the turnover margin. The Broncos are minus-3 after two games, and only Cleveland and Miami are worse (both at minus-4). Quarterback Bo Nix, who went without an interception 10 times as a rookie, did throw four in his first two starts combined last year and is tied for most interceptions this season after two weeks with three. Toss in that the Broncos are also one of 10 teams with more than 120 penalty yards after two games and that is not the profile that’s going to succeed in their own division, let alone the AFC playoff race. — Jeff Legwold
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The early surprise: Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs in rushing.
The verdict: Mirage-ish. The Chiefs certainly hope it’s a mirage. But Mahomes has had to scramble to give the Chiefs a legit option on the ground. Although Isiah Pacheco is healthy, he has struggled with his limited touches. Kareem Hunt is mostly a short-yardage and third-down back. Still, it’s wild that Mahomes is the second quarterback since 1950 to record double any other player on his team in rushing yards in each of the first two games of a season, joining Cam Newton (2020). — Nate Taylor
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The early surprise: The Raiders have the fifth-fewest points allowed.
The verdict: Real. Las Vegas has allowed 16.5 points per game through two weeks. Against the Chargers, the defense kept the game within reach, allowing just three points in the second half. Even though the Raiders still have question marks in the secondary, coach Pete Carroll and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham have shown they can find a way to get the best out of the talent at hand. — Ryan McFadden
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The early surprise: Quentin Johnston‘s production.
The verdict: Real. Johnston has 150 receiving yards and three touchdowns through two games, leading the team in both categories. He is the first Chargers player with three touchdowns through L.A.’s first two games since tight end Antonio Gates in 2014. Despite Johnston’s fluctuating play through two seasons, he has remained one of quarterback Justin Herbert‘s favorite targets. Johnston should continue to be productive this season. — Kris Rhim

NFC EAST
2:08
Should Javonte Williams be viewed as a lineup lock, top-10 RB?
Daniel Dopp, Field Yates and Stephania Bell debate whether Javonte Williams is a lineup lock and a top-10 fantasy running back.
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The early surprise: Four rushing touchdowns.
The verdict: Real. That might not sound impressive to some folks, but the Cowboys had just six rushing touchdowns last season. Six. Javonte Williams has three, the most by a Dallas running back through two games since Marion Barber in 2008. Miles Sanders has the fourth. New offensive coordinator Klayton Adams helped design Arizona’s run game and has brought some changes to how the Cowboys get it done on the ground, particularly by getting his linemen on the move. Last year, the Cardinals had 18 rushing touchdowns. Good red zone teams run the ball into the end zone. If the Cowboys can be a threat on the ground inside the opponents’ 20, it will help Dak Prescott and his pass catchers find some space, too. — Todd Archer
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The early surprise: Bottom-five rushing attack.
The verdict: Real. The offensive line isn’t great at pass blocking. There was a belief based on the second half of last season that it would at least be a better run-blocking unit. But the Giants have problems on the interior of their offensive line, a main reason they are averaging a paltry 79.0 yards on the ground. They get minimal push. That seems unlikely to magically change, and the running game is already searching for answers. Tyrone Tracy Jr. was replaced by Cam Skattebo as the primary ball carrier after one week. — Jordan Raanan
2:04
Is Cam Skattebo the best fantasy RB on the Giants?
Field Yates and Stephania Bell debate whether Cam Skattebo is the preferred fantasy running back out of the Giants’ backfield.
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The early surprise: A.J. Brown has not been a major factor in the offense, catching just six balls for 35 yards.
The verdict: Mirage. Brown has had over 1,000 yards receiving in each of his three seasons in Philadelphia and has gone over 1,400 yards twice. He has averaged 15.6 yards per reception over his career compared with just 5.8 through two games. The Eagles pass game is still finding its way under new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo. This is a run-oriented offense but that hasn’t stopped Brown from being productive. He missed significant time this summer with a hamstring injury. Assuming his health continues to trend in a positive direction, he should be back to filling up the stat sheet before long. — Tim McManus
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The early surprise: Terry McLaurin is on pace for less than 700 yards.
The verdict: Mirage. McLaurin has topped 1,000 yards in five consecutive seasons so there’s no reason to believe his production won’t increase. But the slow start was somewhat expected given that he missed all of training camp (in addition to OTA and minicamp practices) while holding out/in. He’s receiving a similar number of targets as he did last year (6.88 in 2024; 6.5 in 2025) and he was getting open vs. Green Bay — but the Packers’ pass rush often negated chances. McLaurin is still getting open — when he runs a route after lining up wide left (his usual spot), he’s averaging 2.53 yards of separation compared with 2.63 last year. It’s a matter of time for McLaurin. — John Keim

NFC NORTH
1:04
How much will the Bears miss Jaylon Johnson?
“The Pat McAfee Show” crew reacts to the news about Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson being out indefinitely after sustaining a groin injury against the Lions.
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The early surprise: Chicago’s defense ranks 32nd in points allowed.
The verdict: Real. And that’s the scary part. The Bears’ defense is supposed to be the backbone of this team while Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and the offense get established, but Chicago has allowed 73 points over its past five quarters and let the Lions average 8.8 yards per play in Week 2, the highest rate they allowed in a game since 1961. Minnesota quarterback J.J. McCarthy coming back to earth after the Vikings scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter is a bad look for the Bears. What’s worse were the 52 points allowed to Detroit, the most Chicago has given up in a game since 2014. — Courtney Cronin
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The early surprise: The Lions are tied for the NFL’s most receiving touchdowns.
The verdict: Real. With so many offensive playmakers returning, Lions QB Jared Goff could very well continue this trend. Goff and Detroit scored five touchdowns during the 52-21 Week 2 beatdown versus Chicago — All-Pro WR Amon-Ra St. Brown scored three of those — but Goff will also be throwing to WR Jameson Williams, rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa, TE Sam LaPorta and RB Jahmyr Gibbs this season. Detroit was able to set a franchise record by averaging 8.8 yards per play on offense against the Bears and produced a game with at least 500 total net yards, five passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns for the first time in franchise history. — Eric Woodyard
2:12
Was Week 1 or 2 a fantasy overreaction for the Lions?
Field Yates, Daniel Dopp and Stephania Bell examine the fantasy performances of the Lions in Week 2.
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The early surprise: The Packers lead the league in QB pressures.
The verdict: Real. After ranking a pedestrian 17th in the NFL in quarterback pressures last season, they’re No. 1 in the league with 38 after two weeks, according to ESPN Research. They’re also second in sacks. The reason it could be sustainable is simple: the arrival of Micah Parsons. On a limited snap count, Parsons ranks second in the NFL in individual pressures with nine. — Rob Demovsky
1:07
Jordan Love: Micah Parsons has taken our team to another level
Jordan Love joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to discuss what the addition of Micah Parsons has meant for the Green Bay Packers.
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The early surprise: A rough start for a revamped offensive line.
The verdict: Real. The Vikings devoted premium assets to revamping their offensive line this offseason, signing center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries to deals that totaled $106 million while drafting left guard Donovan Jackson in the first round. But the line has yet to gel, in part because of injuries, and it has been a contributor to quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s struggles. Kelly is the only starter who ranks among the NFL’s top 60 in pass block win rate, and in the run game, the Vikings rank No. 28 in the league with an average of 1.91 yards gained before contract. Kelly suffered a concussion in Week 2, and that — along with left tackle Christian Darrisaw‘s ongoing recovery from a 2024 left knee injury, has complicated matters. — Kevin Seifert

NFC SOUTH
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The early surprise: The Falcons have one of the most potent pass rushes in the league.
The verdict: Mirage — to an extent. The Falcons are fourth in the league in quarterback pressure rate (46.3%) and fourth in sack rate (10.4%). Their seven sacks, six of which came against the Vikings on Sunday night, make for the third highest total in the league. Atlanta has been a cellar dweller in getting to the quarterback. Coming into this season, the Falcons had 30 fewer sacks than any other team going back to 2019. The 2025 numbers will revert to the mean. But the team’s defense, under new coordinator Jeff Ulbrich and after a commitment to adding talent in the offseason, is undoubtedly improved. — Marc Raimondi
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The early surprise: Xavier Legette‘s horrible start.
The verdict: Real. The 32nd pick of the 2024 draft had one catch for minus-2 yards Sunday and through two games has four catches on 15 targets for 8 yards. Coach Dave Canales says he still believes in Legette, but is there reason to? Legette had only a 58.3% catch rate last year and worked hard during the offseason to improve that. Instead, he has gone backward and is at 26.7%. He should be in danger of being replaced. — David Newton
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The early surprise: The Saints defense is tied for second in the league with eight sacks.
The verdict: Mirage. Though the Saints were able to generate some sacks in the first two games, two sacks were tackles for no gain when Kyler Murray was on the run and one sack was a result of Mac Jones stumbling and falling last week. According to TruMedia, the Saints rank 28th in pass rush win rate and 30th in pressures. Although things could change when Chase Young returns from injury, New Orleans likely won’t stay at the top of the league in that statistic. — Katherine Terrell
1:23
Baker Mayfield: We’ll take the wins, but we have a lot to clean up
Baker Mayfield breaks down the Buccaneers’ win over the Texans on “Monday Night Football.”
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The early surprise: The Bucs’ 2-0 hot start.
The verdict: Real. This is the third straight year the Bucs have started 2-0 under Todd Bowles, something no other team has done since 2023. The issue has been the midseason lulls following their hot starts. In 2024, the Bucs started 3-1 and then proceeded to drop five of six games before winning six of seven in the end. In 2023, they started 3-1, dropped six of seven and then won five of six. Last year, their losing coincided with the loss of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. In 2025, they’ve started the season 2-0 without Godwin, Jalen McMillan and All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs, and now they’ve lost Calijah Kancey for the year. Assuming they stay healthy in other position groups, their play should elevate by midseason — not decline. — Jenna Laine

NFC WEST
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The early surprise: RB James Conner is off to a slow start.
The verdict: Mirage. The 30-year-old Conner is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons but has rushed for just 73 yards this season — the 39th most this season. It puts him on pace for 620.5 yards, which would be his fewest since 2019. He’s bound to break out at some point, but the Cardinals’ backup running back, Trey Benson, has been looking impressive in the limited snaps he has received thus far. Conner is a hard, downfield runner with game-breaking ability. It’s just a matter of time before he finds his rhythm and gets his stats up to speed. — Josh Weinfuss
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The early surprise: OLB Byron Young leads the Rams in sacks.
The verdict: Real. Young, a 2023 third-round pick, has a team-leading three sacks in two games. The Rams have an excellent defensive front that also includes Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske and Jared Verse, but Young has been a standout through two games. Rams head coach Sean McVay said he thought Young was “outstanding” against the Titans, saying, “I thought he took his game to the next level.” Young’s three sacks tie him for fourth in the league this season. — Sarah Barshop
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The early surprise: The Niners are again middle of the pack in scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
The verdict: Mirage. Through two games, San Francisco has scored a touchdown on 57.1% of its trips to the red zone, tied for 17th in the NFL. That’s exactly in line with the 57.1% the 49ers posted for all of last season, which ranked 14th. But there’s reason to believe that number will improve as the year goes on. While the 49ers can never count on being “fully” healthy, they should get tight end George Kittle (hamstring) and receiver Brandon Aiyuk (knee) back at some point to complement running back Christian McCaffrey. Having even two of those three should put San Francisco in position to convert more long drives into touchdowns as the season goes on. — Nick Wagoner
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The early surprise: Zach Charbonnet is playing more than Kenneth Walker III.
The verdict: Real. This might surprise only those who weren’t paying attention to the hints that Charbonnet was poised for an increased role this season. Through two games, he has outsnapped Walker 66 to 44. However, they each have 27 touches, and Walker has been the more productive of the two, with 142 yards and a touchdown compared with Charbonnet’s 57 yards and one score. Charbonnet is excellent in pass protection and is as reliable as they come, so expect him to continue to play extensively even if Walker continues to outproduce him. — Brady Henderson
Sports
Super Bowl LX betting buzz: Bettor places $1,000 MVP wagers on Super Bowl kickers
Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our Super Bowl betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation leading up to the big game.
Key links: Early bets | Updated odds | Sports betting home | DraftKings
Feb. 5: Bettor places $1,000 MVP wagers on Super Bowl kickers
By David Purdum
The Super Bowl can make bettors do strange things, such as wagering big bucks on a kicker to win MVP.
On Feb. 1, a bettor in New Jersey with sportsbook BetRivers placed a pair of $1,000 MVP bets on each of the starting kickers in Sunday’s game:
A spokesperson for BetRivers said the sportsbook had taken only a handful of MVP bets on the kickers, “although several of them are relatively large.” No kicker has ever been named MVP of the Super Bowl.
DraftKings also reported taking a $1,000 MVP bet on Myers at 100-1 and a $500 bet on Borregales at 200-1.
Joey Feazel, head of football trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said there has been interest on Borregales at his shop.
“Longer odds, that’s really what a lot of bettors are trying to find during the Super Bowl, something that’s not the greatest probability, but it has a decent price,” Feazel said.
Quarterbacks have been named MVP in 34 of 59 Super Bowls, including five of the last six. Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold is the MVP favorite in Super Bowl LX, listed at +115 on Thursday at DraftKings Sportsbook, followed by Patriots quarterback Drake Maye at +240.
Wide receivers have won eight MVPs, followed by running backs with seven. Ten defensive players have won the award: four linebackers, two defensive ends, two safeties, one safety and one defensive tackle.
In other long-shot MVP wagers, Hard Rock Bet reports taking a $1,000 bet on Seattle cornerback Devon Witherspoon to win Super Bowl MVP at 150-1, and $100 bets on three Seahawks defenders: defensive tackle Byron Murphy II (150-1), safety Julian Love (500-1) and defensive tackle Leonard Williams (100-1).
Feb. 4: Super Bowl odds and ends
More bets on coin flip than any Super Bowl player prop
Among the thousands of Super Bowl props on the board, the most popular one with bettors will be determined by a flick of the thumb before the game even kicks off. At BetMGM sportsbooks, more bets have been placed on the result of the pregame coin flip than on any individual player prop on the board.
Overall, “heads or tails” is eighth overall in Super Bowl wagering, behind the staples such as the point spread, outright winner (money line) and MVP. Bettors annually flock to place a bet on the Super Bowl coin flip. Most of the bets are small in stature, but there have been reports of six-figure wagers on the coin flip in the past. The Super Bowl has landed on tails in 31 out of the 59 past Super Bowls. As of Wednesday, 63% of the money wagered on the coin flip was on heads at BetMGM. — David Purdum
A super hedge
Before the season, a retail bettor at BetMGM in Nevada placed three $50,000 futures wagers on the Seahawks, two of which — to make the playoffs (+185) and to win the NFC (+2800) — have already cashed to the tune of approximately $1.5 million combined.
With the last $50,000 riding on Seattle to win the Super Bowl at 60-1, the same bettor has placed a $725,000 bet on the Patriots to win Sunday’s game at +190 money line odds, BetMGM confirmed to ESPN. Should the Seahawks win, the bettor will net $2,275,000, but if the Pats win, the bettor will net “only” $1,327,500 on the wagers with BetMGM.
The same bettor also placed large bets on the Seahawks in the preseason at sportsbook Circa, according to a source. — Doug Greenberg
Holding the line
The consensus Super Bowl point spread is holding steady at Seattle -4.5 at all but a few sportsbooks, with the Seahawks attracting the majority of the action on the spread. As of Wednesday at DraftKings, approximately 64% of the bets — and 70% of all money that had been wagered — was on Seattle.
“Early action was mostly on Seattle,” Tom Gable, sportsbook director at the Borgata in Atlantic City, New Jersey, told ESPN. “We opened [Seahawks] -4, touched -5, but settled in at -4.5 and haven’t moved since. If New England keeps it within the number, as of now, that would be a good outcome. New England winning outright even better. But a lot of handle still to come.” — Purdum
Feb. 4: Tracking the largest bets on Super Bowl LX so far
By Doug Greenberg
The matchup for Super Bowl LX is set with the Seattle Seahawks favored over the New England Patriots to take home the Lombardi Trophy. The biggest single event in American sports always brings out the big bets.
Since the summer, bettors have been speculating on the result of this game, and the wagers will finally settle on Feb. 8. Here are some of the largest bets — by odds, stakes and potential winnings — tracked thus far:
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On Wednesday, Florida attorney Dan Newlin placed a $1 million wager on the Seattle Seahawks moneyline at -230 odds to net $434,782.61, all of which will be donated to pediatric cancer research at Nemours Children’s Hospital in Orlando. A release from Newlin said he will continue donating to Nemours “regardless of the outcome of this wager.”
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In August, a retail bettor at BetMGM in Nevada placed three separate $50,000 futures on the Seahawks, as first reported by Yahoo Sports and confirmed to ESPN by the sportsbook. Seahawks to make the playoffs at +185 cashed for $92,500 and Seahawks to win the NFC at +2800 cashed for $1.4 million. The bettor still has a Seattle Super Bowl ticket at +6000 odds that will net $3 million if successful.
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On Monday, Circa Sports director of operations Jeffrey Benson announced that the sportsbook took a $1.1 million wager on the Patriots money line at +188 that would net nearly $2.1 million if New England wins outright.
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DraftKings took a $10,000 futures bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at +8000 that would pay winnings of $800,000.
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In November, BetMGM accepted a $30,000 wager on New England to win the Super Bowl at +2200, a net of $660,000 if successful.
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In late August, Circa took a $100 bet on the exact result of the Super Bowl being Seahawks over Patriots at an astonishing 3100-1. The bettor would win $310,000 if the exacta comes to fruition.
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On Jan. 14, Caesars Sportsbook took a $32,000 wager on the Seahawks at +275 odds for winnings of $88,000; less than two weeks later, it took a $40,000 bet on the Patriots at +260 for a potential net win of $104,000.
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DraftKings accepted a $500 bet on the Seahawks at +65000 to win $32,500.
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At Caesars, a bettor in Nevada placed a $55,000 wager on Patriots +4.5 (-108) for an approximate $51,000 win, while a bettor in New Jersey put in a $36,000 bet on Seahawks -4.5 (-109) for an approximate $33,000 win, according to the sportsbook’s head of football Joey Feazel, who said the wagers came in “within seconds” of the odds going up following the NFC championship.
Feb. 3: Blue, orange the favorites in Gatorade dump markets
By Doug Greenberg
Of the thousands of prop bets offered on the Super Bowl each year, the color of Gatorade poured on the winning head coach is one of the big game’s most enduring novelties.
At DraftKings, blue and orange are the current odds leaders at +250, with yellow/lime or green close behind at +260. Purple (+700), red/pink (+950) and water/clear (+1100) round out the available options.
A representative from BetMGM told ESPN that the Gatorade prop is currently the 23rd-most-bet market for the Super Bowl thus far but that they “expect it will continue to grow,” given it has not been available as long as many of the other prop markets.
In the early betting, yellow/lime or green has been the clear public preference; both BetMGM and DraftKings report their largest shares of bets and handle backing the flavor, maxing out with 28.1% of the money at the former. Blue has also been a popular choice, with a leading 29% of tickets at theScore Bet, as well as the second-most bets and handle at BetMGM. Purple and orange have also seen their fair share of action across the sportsbook marketplace.
The three most recent Super Bowls saw the Philadelphia Eagles use yellow on Nick Sirianni, while the Kansas City Chiefs dumped purple on Andy Reid for both of their Super Bowl wins.
When the Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII, they used orange Gatorade. The New England Patriots have varied between blue and clear throughout their six Super Bowl wins, with blue being the winning color for their victory in Super Bowl LIII. These were, of course, under different coaching regimes, if that matters.
Since 2001, orange has been the most frequently used color, getting the dump five times. All of the other colors are tied at four except for red/pink, which has never been used, according to data from BetMGM.
Feb. 2: Seahawks’ Shaheed the favorite to be fastest in Super Bowl
By ESPN Staff
Among more than 1,500 betting markets, DraftKings is offering odds on the top speed a ball carrier will reach during Super Bowl LX.
Seattle Seahawks receiver/kick returner Rashid Shaheed, at +200, is the betting favorite to reach the highest speed of any ball carrier in Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots, a wager that will be determined by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is next at +270, followed by Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III at +400. New England quarterback Drake Maye has the shortest odds of any Patriot, at +450
DraftKings has the over/under on Shaheed’s top speed set at 19.5 mph. He reached a top speed of 21.72 mph this season, while he was with the New Orleans Saints, before his trade to the Seahawks. He has gone over 19.5 on carries in both of Seattle’s playoff games this season but has had only seven possible plays in both playoff games.
The over/under on Maye’s top speed is 18.5 mph. He has exceeded that speed in all three playoff games.
Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson was one of six ball carriers to reach 22 mph during a game this season. Henderson topped out at 22.01 mph during a Week 10 game. He is 10-1 to have the fastest carry in the Super Bowl, but the rookie running back’s touches have been limited in the playoffs.
Jan 31. Sportsbooks resist moving Super Bowl line despite heavy Seahawks action
By David Purdum
After a week of betting, the point spread on Super Bowl LX was holding steady Saturday, with the Seattle Seahawks remaining consensus 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots.
Sportsbooks have been reporting early lopsided action on the Seahawks to cover the spread. As of Saturday, 75% of the money that had been bet on the Super Bowl spread with DraftKings was on Seattle. In addition, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who is battling a sore shoulder, missed Friday’s practice with an illness.
Despite the early action on the Seahawks and Maye’s ailments, most sportsbooks were holding the line at 4.5.
“At this point, it would require significant additional action on Seattle -4.5, or a meaningful update to Drake Maye’s injury status, for us to consider a move,” Neil Walsh, senior vice president for Hard Rock Bet, told ESPN. “We do not anticipate either occurring for the next few days.”
Jamey Pileggi, head NFL oddsmaker for Circa Sports, said it would take a “six- or seven-figure” bet on the Seahawks at -4.5 to push the line up to -5.
Two Las Vegas sportsbooks — the South Point and the Westgate SuperBook — had bumped the line up to -5 in recent days.
Chris Andrews, the South Point’s veteran sportsbook director, made the adjustment to Seahawks -5 on Thursday, saying that he’d rather be the first sportsbook to make the move than the last. Since making the move to -5, Andrews said the action has been extremely balanced.
“Only $3 separates the teams at five,” Andrews said.
Bookmakers weren’t putting much stock in any impact Maye’s shoulder might have. Andrews said he was going to let the money wagered guide him. He estimated only around 5% of the total money that he expects will be wagered on the Super Bowl had been placed in the first week.
Jan. 29: Smith-Njigba most popular player in early Super Bowl betting
By Doug Greenberg
In early player prop and MVP wagering for Super Bowl LX, one name is rising above the rest: Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Seattle Seahawks wide receiver is currently DraftKings Sportsbook’s most-bet first touchdown scorer (+550) with 15% of the handle, as well as its most-bet anytime touchdown scorer. BetMGM similarly reports Smith-Njigba attracting the most anytime touchdown and first touchdown wagers, making him a liability for the book.
“Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Seattle’s Defense/Special Teams finding paydirt have become bad results for the book right now,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said in an email release.
Both books list the 23-year-old’s anytime touchdown prop at -110, which has already shortened from +100 likely due in part to the heavy action he has received. That said, Smith-Njigba’s implied odds to score a touchdown, defined as “the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay [converted] into a money line,” are +181.
Smith-Njigba has by far the highest receiving yards over/under of any player at 95.5, according to DraftKings lines. The sportsbook reports him receiving the most wagers in the most receiving yards market (-185), as well as the most receptions market (-158).
All the early betting fervor around Smith-Njigba extends to the Super Bowl MVP market, where he is also becoming a creeping liability. At +550, he has the shortest odds for a wide receiver to win Super Bowl MVP since Larry Fitzgerald in 2009 (+400), and seeks to be the longest winner overall since his current teammate, Cooper Kupp, won it at +600 with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022, according to SportsOddsHistory.
DraftKings says Smith-Njigba is its second-most-bet MVP candidate by handle (19%), while BetMGM reports him receiving by far its most handle (24.9%), making him its largest liability in the market.
Jan. 28: Mattress Mack makes $2 million bet on Super Bowl LX winner
By David Purdum
The largest reported Super Bowl bet so far — $2 million on the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl — belongs to a Houston furniture salesman.
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale placed the $2 million bet last week on the AFC to win the Super Bowl with Caesars Sportsbook. At 2-1, McIngvale would win a net $4 million if the Patriots upset the favored Seattle Seahawks. It’s the largest Super Bowl bet that Caesars has taken this year as of Wednesday.
Mattress Mack is hedging his bet with one of his go-to promotions at his Gallery Furniture store: Spend $4,000 on a mattress and gear with McIngvale’s Gallery Furniture, and if the Patriots beat the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX, you get your money back on your purchase.
McIngvale, a beloved figure in Houston for decades, turns 75 in February. He has tied such giveaways to big sports wagers regularly for years. In 2022, he won approximately $75 million on bets he made on the Houston Astros to win the World Series, believed to be one of the largest sports betting payouts in U.S. history.
McIngvale has had mixed results on the Super Bowl, otherwise, winning big on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021, but suffering a multimillion-dollar loss on the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022. He also twice lost seven figures on bets on the Houston Cougars men’s basketball team to win the NCAA tournament.
McIngvale hedges his total exposure with any boost in mattress sales generated by the giveaways. He sat out last Super Bowl recovering from heart surgery, but he’s back this season and siding with the underdogs for multiple reasons. Getting plus odds on the underdog helps with the promotion, but he also respects the Patriots’ personnel.
“I really like their quarterback [Drake Maye], coach [Mike Vrabel] and offensive coordinator [Josh McDaniels], plus Robert Kraft is always there,” McIngvale told ESPN on Wednesday.
Last year, there were no disclosed $1 million Super Bowl bets reported by U.S. sportsbooks. This year, there have been at least two, both of which are on the underdog Patriots. On Monday, sportsbook Circa reported taking a $1.1 million wager on the Patriots to win the game outright at +188 odds.
Sports
Matthew Stafford wins NFL MVP in closest vote since 2003
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford edged New England Patriots counterpart Drake Maye to win the NFL Most Valuable Player award Thursday night, then made news in his acceptance speech by announcing he’ll return next season.
Stafford received 24-of-50 first-place votes and finished with 366 points. Maye got 23 first-place votes and finished with 361 points. It was the closest race since Peyton Manning and Steve McNair were co-winners in 2003.
In his 17th NFL season, the 37-year-old Stafford became the oldest player in NFL history at the time of his first MVP. He also became the third-oldest player to win MVP, behind Tom Brady (2017) and Aaron Rodgers (2021).
Stafford brought his four daughters — all dressed in identical black-and-white dresses — to the stage to accept the award at the NFL Honors show.
He thanked his team and saved his wife and daughters for last: “You’re unbelievable cheerleaders for me. I appreciate it. I am so happy to have you at the games on the sideline with me, and I can’t wait for you to cheer me on next year when we’re out there kicking ass.”
It was Stafford’s way of announcing he will be back next season after contemplating retirement.
Over the last two months of the regular season, Stafford and Maye flip-flopped in the odds to win MVP multiple times, with Stafford emerging as the favorite after Week 18. He also was named an AP First Team All-Pro for the first time in his career.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, the 2024 MVP, received two first-place votes, while Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert got the other. Allen finished third in voting, followed by San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey and Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Stafford, who won Super Bowl LVI with Los Angeles in the 2021 season, became the fourth Rams player to be named MVP (Roman Gabriel in 1969, Kurt Warner in 1999 and 2001, and Marshall Faulk in 2000). He led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards, as well as a career-high 46 passing touchdowns to just eight interceptions.
Stafford became the first player to win MVP for a team outside the top two seeds since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, only eight players have won MVP for non-division winners, including just two quarterbacks (McNair in ’03, Peyton Manning in 2008). The Rams secured the fifth seed in the NFC after finishing second in the NFC West with a 12-5 record.
Los Angeles fell short of the Super Bowl after losing to the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game. After that defeat, the focus turned to Stafford’s future in the NFL, but the veteran QB assured fans Thursday night that he’ll be back for an 18th season.
“I’ll see you guys next year,” he said. “Hopefully I’m not at this event and we’re getting ready for another game at SoFi.”
The Rams’ home stadium will host the Super Bowl in 2027.
Maye led the Patriots to a 14-3 record, the AFC East title and the second seed in the AFC in his second season. They’ll play the Seahawks in the Super Bowl on Sunday.
Maye’s breakout sophomore season saw him lead the NFL in passer rating (113.5), completion percentage (72.0%) and yards per attempt (8.9), and throw for 4,394 yards, along with 31 touchdowns to eight interceptions.
The 23-year-old became the youngest player since the merger to lead the NFL in completion percentage, surpassing the previous mark set by 24-year-old Joe Montana in 1980.
A nationwide panel of 50 media members who regularly cover the league completed voting before the playoffs began.
Voters selected a top 5 for the eight AP NFL awards. First-place votes were worth 10 points. Second- through fifth-place votes were worth 5, 3, 2 and 1 points.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
Sports
2026 Pro Football Hall of Fame: Meet the new members
One of the most proficient passers in NFL history and one of the league’s most prolific pass catchers highlight the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2026.
The class, announced Thursday night as part of the NFL Honors show in San Francisco, is led by quarterback Drew Brees, one of two quarterbacks in league history to throw for more than 80,000 yards, and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who finished his career second only to Hall of Famer Jerry Rice in career receptions and receiving yards.
Joining them will be linebacker Luke Kuechly and kicker Adam Vinatieri. Running back Roger Craig, one of the three Seniors finalists, will also be in the 2026 Hall class.
Brees and Fitzgerald are in their first year of eligibility, and Kuechly and Vinatieri are in their second year. Not in the class is former Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who was the finalist from the coaches’ sub-committee, and New England owner Robert Kraft, the finalist from the contributors’ sub-committee.
This year’s class was chosen by the Hall’s board of selectors in a virtual meeting. The new Hall of Famers will be enshrined on Aug. 8 in Canton, Ohio.
Here is a closer look at the Class of 2026.

Drew Brees, quarterback
San Diego Chargers, 2001-2005; New Orleans Saints, 2006-2020
Brees was relatively small in stature (6-foot, 209 pounds), but he compensated with uncanny accuracy and instincts in the pocket, not to mention a computer-like ability to read defenses. It wasn’t an easy road for Brees, a second-round pick by the Chargers in 2001. He was replaced by Philip Rivers and suffered a major throwing-shoulder injury in 2005, prompting many to wonder if he’d ever be the same. As it turned out, he got better. He signed with the Saints in 2006 and led them to their only Super Bowl championship three years later.
Why he was selected: Brees is second all-time in passing yards (80,358), touchdown passes (571) and completions (7,142), and he’s third in completion percentage (67.7%). He made 13 Pro Bowls and was twice named NFL Offensive Player of the Year. He threw for more than 5,000 yards in a season an NFL-record five times. With Sean Payton designing the offense and calling the plays, Brees once went 54 consecutive regular-season games with a touchdown pass. Quite frankly, he owns too many passing marks to list.
Signature moment: A no-brainer — Super Bowl XLIV in Miami after the 2009 season. With precision passing (32-for-39, 288 yards, two touchdowns), Brees was named MVP for his performance in the Saints’ 31-17 win over the Indianapolis Colts. It capped a dual-redemption story for Brees and the city of New Orleans, which was devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. — Cimini
Quotable: “One of his greatest strengths was in the pocket. He was a real good foot athlete. He could subtly move and deliver. Decision-making, make the proper throws in the biggest moments and as tough and courageous player as I’ve ever been around — all of it.” — former Saints and current Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton
Roger Craig, running back
San Francisco 49ers, 1983-1990; Los Angeles Raiders, 1991; Minnesota Vikings, 1993
Craig was a four-time Pro Bowl selection who played on three Super Bowl-winning teams in San Francisco. Hall of Fame 49ers coach Bill Walsh considered him a transformational player at the position and one of the key pieces of the 49ers’ offense. Craig was the first player in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards and have at least 1,000 yards receiving in the same season. He did it in 1985, hauling in a league-leading 92 passes for 1,016 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 1,050 yards and another nine scores.
Only two others have accomplished that feat — Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk (1999) and Christian McCaffrey (2019).
Why he was elected: The way Walsh used Craig forced defenses to adjust how they played and how they aligned against all eligible players in the formation. He was a template for how running backs could be used as rushing and receiving threats in the following decades.
Craig was named to the 1980s All-Decade team and made the postseason in every season of his career. Until his enshrinement, he was the only running back who was on either the 1970s, 1980s or 1990s All-Decade teams who was not in the Hall of Fame.
Signature moment: Craig’s high-knee stride was his trademark, but his 16-yard catch-and-run touchdown in Super Bowl XIX was an enduring image — knees churning with the ball held high as he crossed the goal line for the 49ers’ final score in their 38-16 win over the Miami Dolphins. Craig had 135 yards from scrimmage with three touchdowns in the game (one rushing, two receiving) and was the first player to score three touchdowns in a Super Bowl. — Legwold
Quotable: “I was never really caught up in the glamour, as far as trying to be the featured man on the team.” — Craig
Larry Fitzgerald, wide receiver
Arizona Cardinals, 2004-2020
For 17 seasons, Fitzgerald defined excellence. Drafted No. 3 overall by the Cardinals in 2004, he was consistent, durable, explosive and historically prolific. The wide receiver’s job, in its simplest form, is to catch the ball. Very few did it better than Fitzgerald, who was incredibly surehanded. He had only 35 drops.
His 1,431 receptions and 17,492 receiving yards are not only better than everyone not named Jerry Rice, but Fitzgerald is more than 100 receptions and 1,500 yards clear of the next-best player.
Why he was selected: Fitzgerald was one of the most decorated receivers of his generation. He was named one of the NFL’s 100 all-time greatest players, highlighting a resume that also includes 11 Pro Bowls and a selection to the 2010s All-Decade team. The most remarkable thing about Fitzgerald was his longevity. He led the league in catches at age 22 (103), and he did it again at 33 (107). The 11-year gap is the widest in history.
And unlike Rice, Fitzgerald wasn’t blessed with a Hall of Fame quarterback throughout his career. He had Kurt Warner for five seasons, but there were also several years of musical quarterbacks in his offense. Fitzgerald rose above it all, bringing credibility to a franchise that had been to the playoffs once (1998) in the 21 seasons before his arrival.
Signature moment: Some might say his 75-yard catch-and-run in overtime to spark the Cardinals’ 2015 divisional-round win over the Green Bay Packers, but it’s impossible to ignore his 2008 postseason run. In four games, including Super Bowl XLIII, Fitzgerald was utterly dominant — 30 receptions, 546 yards and seven touchdowns. It’s one of the greatest postseasons in history, regardless of position. — Cimini
Quotable: “Greatness! I have coached a bunch of great wide receivers in my time, but never have I seen one with hands as good as Larry. You rarely ever heard the ball hit his hands. What he did throughout both seasons I was with him was phenomenal, but what he did in the 2008 playoff run up to the Super Bowl — and then in the Super Bowl game itself — was extraordinary. He put the whole team on his back and carried us until about two minutes, 30 seconds away from a Super Bowl title.” — former Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley to ESPN
Luke Kuechly, linebacker
Carolina Panthers, 2012-2019
It was all about quality over an eight-year career. He was a seven-time Pro Bowl selection, a five-time All-Pro and an All-Decade selection for the 2010s.
He was also named Defensive Player of the Year in 2013, his second year in the league. Kuechly suffered at least three reported concussions in his career, and after the 2019 season he said retiring was “the right thing to do.”
Why he was elected: Kuechly and Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor are the only linebackers to have won Defensive Rookie of the Year as well as the Defensive Player of the Year. A three-down, sideline-to-sideline force, he had at least 100 tackles in all eight of his seasons and led the league in tackles twice — 2012 and 2014. Beyond the tackles, Kuechly deflected a staggering 67 passes and had 18 interceptions.
Signature moment: He was so good he even doubled up signature moments. In the Panthers’ run to Super Bowl 50 in the 2015 season, Kuechly returned interceptions for touchdowns in both the divisional round win over Seattle and the NFC Championship Game win over Arizona. — Legwold
Quotable: “There is only one way to play this game since I was a little kid, play fast, play physical and play strong.” — Kuechly, on his retirement
Adam Vinatieri, kicker
New England Patriots, 1996-2005; Indianapolis Colts, 2006-2019
Vinatieri set every meaningful kicking record in his 24-year career. He holds all-time records in field goal attempts (715), made field goals (599), games played (365), consecutive field goals made (44) and scoring (2,673 points).
He made 29 game-winning field goals in his career, including a record 10 in overtime. Oh, and he also holds NFL postseason records for most points (238), most field goal attempts (69) and most made field goals (56).
Vinatieri was named to the NFL’s 100th anniversary team and became the third pure place-kicker to be enshrined in the Hall with Jan Stenerud and Morten Andersen.
Why he was elected: Beyond the piles of records, his postseason reliability is the stuff of legend. In his 10 seasons with the Patriots, the team went to four Super Bowls and won three of them, as Vinatieri delivered game-winning kicks in two of the title-game wins.
In his 14 seasons with the Colts, the team went to two Super Bowls and won one. Vinatieri scored 11 of the Colts’ points in Indianapolis’ rain-soaked 29-17 Super Bowl XLI win over the Bears.
Signature moment: His 45-yard field goal in a raging blizzard sent the 2001 divisional game against the Raiders — the “Tuck Rule” game — into overtime. He then kicked the game-winner in OT. The Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl and Vinatieri also kicked the game-winner as New England, a 14.5-point underdog, beat the Rams 20-17 to begin its dynastic run. — Legwold
Quotable: “Adam Vinatieri is the greatest kicker of all time who made the greatest kick of all time.” — Belichick when Vinatieri retired from the NFL
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