Reliance misses third-quarter profit estimates at $2.06 billion for the October-December quarter

On Friday, India’s Reliance Industries posted an 186.45 billion rupees ($2.06 billion) profit for the October-December quarter, missing analysts’ average estimate of 196.44 billion rupees, according to data compiled by LSEG.

 
Shares of Reliance Industries fell as much as 2.7% in early trade on Monday after the conglomerate announced missing its third-quarter profit estimates, weighed down by slowing earnings growth in its retail segment. Shares of the Mukesh Ambani-led firm were trading at 1,426. 60 rupees, as of 9:41 am, and were among the top five losers on the benchmark Nifty 50 Index 
 
UBS analysts trimmed Oil-to-Chemicals(O2C) and retail estimates slightly but said they still see room for a valuation re-rating, as the company’s earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) mix increasingly shifts toward structural growth drivers such as digital and retail, reducing dependence on the cyclical oil and gas segment. Festive discounting, investment in hyper-local delivery startups, and a one-off impact from India’s new labour code trimmed core margins at its retail unit to 8% from 8.6% a year earlier.

Retail growth softened primarily because the festive season was brought forward and due to the one-month impact of the consumer products demerger, analysts at Emkay said. Core earnings for the segment grew 1.3% to 69.15 billion rupees, compared with 9.5% growth a year earlier.
 
Reliance’s oil and gas segment weakened due to lower output and softer price realisations from its ageing KG-D6 fields, leading to an 8.4% revenue decline and a 12.7% drop in core earnings amid higher maintenance costs. Meanwhile, analysts at Systematix forecast a rise of 5%, 12%, and 9% O2C, Retail, and Jio revenue CAGR, respectively, during FY25-FY28, while a 12% decline in their oil and gas businesses.