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Rising oil prices may fuel inflation, widen import bill, warns Finance ministry | The Express Tribune

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Rising oil prices may fuel inflation, widen import bill, warns Finance ministry  | The Express Tribune


Says current account deficit likely to remain manageable, but rising oil prices pose risk to import bill

Analysts have estimated a loss of 7 million to 10 million barrels per day of Middle East oil production due to ongoing war. PHOTO: PEXELS

The Ministry of Finance warned on Tuesday of a significant increase in inflation due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, projecting inflation for the current month to remain between 7.5-8.5%.

The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has already driven up global energy prices, further straining the global economy. An earlier United Nations report highlighted that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to rising food and fertiliser prices. This trend is expected to disproportionately affect poorer nations.

According to the ministry’s monthly economic outlook, while it was pursuing prudent measures — including maintaining adequate petroleum reserves, managing energy demand, and adhering to fiscal austerity — it reiterated that inflation was expected to remain within the 7.5-8.5% range for March.

“The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 125.3 points in February 2026, up by 1.1 points from its revised January level,” the report said, marking the first increase after five consecutive monthly declines.

It said rising global oil prices could increase industrial costs and push up the import bill. However, despite global uncertainty, the economy was expected to remain stable.

“The current account deficit is likely to remain manageable, while rising oil prices pose a risk to the import bill,” the ministry said, adding that high inflows of remittances were expected, particularly due to increased transfers associated with Eid.

Read: PM orders strictness against smuggling, illegal hoarding of petroleum products amid fuel crunch

Despite the recent global crisis, the ministry said it remained optimistic about Pakistan’s economic outlook, noting that the economy was likely to remain resilient in the coming months.

“The latest indicators suggest that the economy is better positioned to absorb external shocks and maintain overall resilience in the coming months,” it added.

However, the ministry warned of potential petroleum supply disruptions due to the war in the Middle East, describing them as among the largest in the global oil market. It said restoring stability in the global oil market would depend on the resumption of regular shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

The report stated that during the first eight months (July to February) of the current fiscal year, the fiscal deficit stood at Rs64.7 billion, while the primary balance was recorded at Rs4,151b.

The ministry said the current account deficit narrowed to $700 million during July-February, while foreign direct investment declined by 33% to $1.19b. 

Also Read: Centre, provinces agree on framework for targeted fuel subsidy

It added that imports of textile machinery and construction materials had increased, while the government continued efforts to maintain petroleum reserves and focus on controlling energy demand and reducing expenditures.

On the external front, the ministry said the current account deficit was expected to remain under control, noting that remittances increased by 10.5% during the first eight months of the fiscal year.

Remittances totalled $8.12b during July-February, while exports declined by 5.4% to $20.7b during the same period. Imports fell by 8.8% to $41.8b over the eight months.

Total foreign investment stood at $704m, while tax revenue increased by 10.6% year-on-year to Rs8,122b during July-February. Non-tax revenue rose by 7.4% to Rs4,041b.

The fiscal deficit for the period stood at Rs64.7b, while the primary balance was recorded at Rs4,151b.

The report further noted that agricultural credit disbursement increased by 11% during the first seven months of the fiscal year, reaching Rs1,649b during July-January. During the same period, banks provided Rs887b in loans to the private sector, while large-scale manufacturing recorded a growth of 5.75%.



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Nike shares fall 9% on weak outlook, expected 20% sales decline in China

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Nike shares fall 9% on weak outlook, expected 20% sales decline in China


A Nike logo is displayed at a Nike store in Austin, Texas, Feb. 5, 2026.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Shares of Nike fell in extended trading Tuesday after the retailer warned sales will fall for the rest of the calendar year, led by an expected 20% decline in its key China market during the current quarter.

Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said during the company’s earnings call that Nike expects sales for its current fiscal fourth quarter to drop between 2% and 4%, compared with Wall Street estimates of a 1.9% increase, according to LSEG.

For the duration of the calendar year, Friend said, the company expects sales to fall by a low single-digit percentage, led by growth in North America and offset by declines in China. That outlook wasn’t comparable to estimates.

Nike beat expectations across the business on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter, but its guidance left investors with more questions about how long its turnaround will take. Friend also cautioned that Nike’s guidance was based off of where the global economic picture stands today — and it could change given recent geopolitical volatility.

“We also recognize that the environment around us has become increasingly dynamic, and we could experience unplanned volatility due to the disruption in the Middle East, rising oil prices and other factors that could impact either input costs or consumer behavior,” said Friend. “We are focused on what we can control.”

Shares fell more than 8% in extended trading.

Here’s how the world’s largest sneaker company did for its fiscal third quarter, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

  • Earnings per share: 35 cents vs. 28 cents expected
  • Revenue: $11.28 billion vs. $11.24 billion expected

The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Feb. 28 was $520 million, or 35 cents per share. That’s a 35% decline from $794 million, or 54 cents per share, a year earlier. That plunge came as Nike’s gross profit margin slid 1.3 percentage points to 40.2%, “primarily due to higher tariffs in North America,” the company said.

Sales were flat at $11.28 billion, compared to $11.27 billion last year.

While Nike beat expectations on the top and bottom lines, it posted a mixed picture regionally. Nike’s largest market of North America continued to show steady growth, as revenue climbed 3% to $5.03 billion, but that was just shy of Wall Street’s expectations of $5.04 billion, according to StreetAccount.

Meanwhile, Nike’s Greater China market continued to shrink, with revenue down 7% to $1.62 billion during the quarter. Still, that total beat analyst estimates of $1.50 billion, according to StreetAccount.

Nike is continuing to work through a colossal turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill. About a year and a half into his tenure, Hill has made strides in repairing parts of the business, but has been clear that it’ll take time for the entire company to improve given the retailer’s scale and complexity. 

He reiterated that expectation on Tuesday, saying in a news release that “the pace of progress is different across the portfolio.”

“The areas we prioritized first continue to drive momentum,” Hill said. “The work is not finished, but the direction is clear, our teams are moving with focus and urgency, and our foundation is getting even stronger to build the future of NIKE.”

Friend said Nike’s turnaround efforts “will continue to impact results over the balance of the calendar year.”

Nike’s recovery was already coming at a tough time as a global trade war dented its efforts to improve profitability and drive sales from inflation-weary shoppers. But now the athletic company will have to contend with a new war in the Middle East that’s already led to rising gas prices and is expected to send consumer prices even higher, which could push shoppers to cut back on nice-to-haves like new clothes and shoes to save money elsewhere. 

“We continue to be encouraged by the momentum in North America. We’ve got a strong order book for summer,” Friend said. “We’re seeing positive signs and sell through. We’re not seeing a consumer reaction to what’s going on in the Middle East at this point in time, in North America.”

Hill has focused in part on revitalizing Nike’s business with wholesale partners as opposed to direct sales on its website and in stores. Wholesale revenue climbed 5% to $6.5 billion.

Meanwhile, direct sales slid 4% to $4.5 billion.

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Tech giant Oracle makes ‘significant’ job cuts

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Tech giant Oracle makes ‘significant’ job cuts



It is thought that thousands of people may have lost their jobs at Oracle, one of the world’s largest tech companies.



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Oil nears highest price since start of Iran war

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Oil nears highest price since start of Iran war



The US-Israel Iran war has halted almost all traffic in a key waterway and the price Brent crude has surged.



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