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Singapore’s UOB raises Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.5%
The Vietnamese government is targeting a GDP growth of 8.3-8.5 per cent this year.
The United Overseas Bank has raised Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.5 per cent from 6.9 per cent, citing economic resilience and dynamism despite tariff risks and uncertainties.
The government’s 2025 growth target is 8.3-8.5 per cent.
For 2026, UOB maintained its growth forecast at 7 per cent.
It expects the country’s exports to grow by about 10 per cent in 2025 compared with 14 per cent in 2024.
For 2026, UOB maintained its growth forecast at 7 per cent.
Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 7.52 per cent year on year (YoY) in the first half (H1) this year, marking the quickest H1 pace since 2011, according to the Singapore-based bank’s global economics and markets research unit.
The strong first-half results were propelled primarily by a 14-per cent YoY rise in exports, bolstered by improved market sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s temporary reduction of reciprocal tariffs to a baseline 10 per cent for trading partners over 90 days.
Tariff uncertainties abated in the second half of 2025 after the US locked in country-specific rates ahead of the August 1 deadline, with Vietnam’s levy settling at 20 per cent.
Despite tariff pressures, UOB expects the country’s exports to grow by about 10 per cent this year compared with 14 per cent last year, assuming a moderate 1-5 per cent YoY expansion over the rest of the year.
Vietnam’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rebounded to 52.4 in July after three consecutive months below the 50-point contraction threshold. Industrial output rose by 9 per cent YoY.
Realised FDI reached $13.6 billion as of July, up from $12.6 billion a year earlier, indicating full-year inflows may surpass $20 billion compared with $25.4 billion in 2024, a domestic news agency reported citing the UOB document.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)