The Doomsday Glacier Is Getting Closer and Closer to Irreversible Collapse

Known as the “Doomsday Glacier,” the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica is one of the most rapidly changing glaciers on Earth, and its future evolution is one of the biggest unknowns when it comes to predicting global sea level rise.

The eastern ice shelf of the Thwaites Glacier is supported at its northern end by a ridge of the ocean floor. However, over the past two decades, cracks in the upper reaches of the glacier have increased rapidly, weakening its structural stability. A new study by the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) presents a detailed record of this gradual collapse process.

Researchers at the Centre for Earth Observation and Science at the University of Manitoba, Canada, analyzed observational data from 2002 to 2022 to track the formation and propagation of cracks in the ice shelf shear zone. They discovered that as the cracks grew, the connection between the ice shelf and the mid-ocean ridge weakened, accelerating the upstream flow of ice.

The Crack in the Ice Shelf Widens in Two Stages

The study reveals that the weakening of the ice shelf occurred in four distinct phases, with crack growth occurring in two stages. In the first phase, long cracks appeared along the ice flow, gradually extending eastward. Some exceeded 8 km in length and spanned the entire shelf. In the second phase, numerous short cross-flow cracks, less than 2 km long, emerged, doubling the total length of the fissures.

Analysis of satellite images showed that the total length of the cracks increased from about 165 km in 2002 to approximately 336 km in 2021. Meanwhile, the average length of each crack decreased from 3.2 km to 1.5 km, with a notable increase in small cracks. These changes reflect a significant shift in the stress state of the ice shelf, that is, in the interaction of forces within its structure.

Between 2002 and 2006, the ice shelf accelerated as it was pulled by nearby fast-moving currents, generating compressive stress on the anchorage point, which initially stabilized the shelf. After 2007, the shear zone between the shelf and the Western ice tongue collapsed. The stress concentrated around the anchorage point, leading to the formation of large cracks.

Since 2017, these cracks have completely penetrated the ice shelf, severing the connection to the anchorage. According to researchers, this has accelerated the upstream flow of ice and turned the anchorage into a destabilizing factor.

Feedback Loop Collapse

One of the most significant findings of the study is the existence of a feedback loop: Cracks accelerate the flow of ice, and in turn, this increased speed generates new cracks. This process was clearly recorded by the GPS devices that the team deployed on the ice shelf between 2020 and 2022.

During the winter of 2020, the upward propagation of structural changes in the shear zone was particularly evident. These changes advanced at a rate of approximately 55 kilometers per year within the ice shelf, demonstrating that structural collapse in the shear zone directly impacts upstream ice flow.