The future of footwear amid economic fragmentation and the digital revolution

As part of an international conference organised under the auspices of the FAIST programme (Agile, Intelligent, Sustainable, and Technological Factory) and promoted by APICCAPS* and CTCP**, Vasco Rodrigues, a professor at Portugal’s Catholic University, presented an overview of the global footwear industry, charting its history, examining its present, and outlining its future prospects.

In his view, China’s entry into the WTO in 2001 was a genuine turning point for the sector. In the first five years of membership, China’s exports more than doubled and continued to grow markedly, although the pace has slowed since 2015. This prompted major international manufacturers to diversify their supply chains, relocating production to Asia and exporting from China.

An overwhelming majority of production takes place in Asia

Today, 90% of the 24 billion pairs of shoes produced worldwide come from Asia. The main producers are China, followed by India (whose exports are virtually non-existent), Vietnam, Indonesia, and Pakistan. Notably, each of these countries manufactures more shoes than Europe as a whole, which accounts for just 2.3% of global output.

In terms of footwear consumption, Asia once again leads. Europeans buy four pairs of shoes per person a year, North Americans five, and Africans just one pair, making Africa the least tapped continental market. Trade flows show that Asia is the principal hub of the global footwear trade.

Comfort and technology, two essential factors in footwear

However, shifts in consumer preferences and distribution channels have brought about significant changes in the market. Vasco Rodrigues cites, for example, the rise of e-commerce and the declining importance of independent shoe boutiques, eclipsed by major retail chains. Professor Rodrigues notes: “Thanks to e-commerce, we can reach the whole world, but not all companies have the structure and capabilities required to engage in this type of business.”

Several factors could reshape the global footwear industry, beginning with demographics, according to Vasco Rodrigues. United Nations data indicate that Asia and Africa are the two most populous regions, and Europe is the only continent where a population decline is expected. The picture is more nuanced at country level.

An unstable international environment

While consumer preferences are harder to predict, several key determinants have been identified, such as comfort, consumers’ sensitivity to sustainability, and their level of trust in the product. Technology is also seen as a driving force that could shape the sector’s future.

On the economic front, the conference noted that the industry is going through a period of fragmentation and the re-formation of blocs. “The trajectory of the US is highly unpredictable, and projections point to uneven global economic growth,” stresses Rodrigues. He notes that growth in Europe is likely to be relatively slow compared with other regions, and that the risk of a crisis in China remains a concern.

*Portuguese Footwear, Components and Leather Goods Manufacturers’ Association.
** Portuguese Footwear Technology Centre.

FashionNetwork.com with World Footwear