Business
The US economy is a puzzle but the pieces aren’t fitting together
Bloomberg/GettyAsk almost any economist and they will tell you: US President Donald Trump has been running risks with the world’s largest economy.
They say his tariffs and crackdown on immigrants risk a return of 1970s-esque “stagflation”, when a sudden oil shock prompted stagnant growth and spiralling prices, except this time the crisis would be self-inflicted.
The White House has just as steadfastly dismissed those concerns, attacking the experts – and, in the case of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, firing her.
Questions about how it will all play out have left the US central bank in a state of paralysis, as it waits for data to clarify what’s happening before making a move on interest rates.
But after a busy few weeks of company updates, data on jobs and inflation, we still don’t really know.
The labour market is sending clearly worrisome signals.
Job creation was almost non-existent in May and June, sluggish in July, and the ranks of discouraged workers are growing.
That 1 August jobs report sent the stock market sinking and Trump into a tailspin, prompting him to fire the BLS commissioner.
A few days later, Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi declared on social media that the economy was “on the precipice of a recession”.
That’s not the consensus.
For sure, the economy has slowed, growing at an annual rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year, down one percentage point from 2024.
But consumer spending, despite weakening, has stayed more resilient than many had expected, despite downbeat assessments by some firms.
Shares, after the 1 August hit, quickly resumed their upward march.
“We continue to struggle to see signs of weakness,” the chief financial officer of JPMorgan Chase, America’s biggest bank, told investors last month. “The consumer basically seems to be fine.”
That has raised hopes that the economy might power through, as it did a few years ago, to widespread surprise, despite getting hit with the highest inflation since the 1980s and a sharp rise in interest rates.
On Friday, the US government reported that spending at retailers and restaurants rose 0.5% from June to July – and that spending in June had been stronger than previously estimated.
“Consumers are down but not out,” wrote Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, which is predicting a modest recovery in spending in the months ahead, as tax cuts and a stock market recovery boost confidence.
“With the sluggish yet resilient real economy, the labor market is unlikely to deteriorate sharply.”
Challenges remain in the months ahead.
For now, households haven’t seen a dramatic run-up in prices at the store that might force them to cut back.
Consumer prices rose 2.7% in July compared with a year ago, the same pace as in June.
But many forecasters had not expected higher prices to start appearing until later this year, especially after Trump delayed some of his most aggressive tariff plans until this month.
Prices for hard-to-substitute, imported staples, like coffee and bananas, have already jumped.
Forecasters expect price increases to widen in the months ahead, as firms sell down pre-tariff stock and raise prices, now that they have more confidence about what the tariff policies might be.
That’s why there was so much focus on the producer price index, which measures wholesale prices commanded by US producers before they hit consumers, offering a clue to what’s coming.
It accelerated at the fastest pace in more than three years in July.
And worryingly, both consumer and producer inflation show the uptick in prices is not limited to goods, suggesting stagflation might very well be staging a return.
Business
Stock market today: Which are the top losers and gainers on March 6- check list – The Times of India
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty fell sharply on Friday, retreating by more than 1 per cent after a brief recovery in the previous session as escalating tensions in West Asia and surging crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiment.The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 1,097 points, or 1.37 per cent, to close at 78,918.90. During the session, it had plunged 1,203.72 points, or 1.50 per cent, to 78,812.18. The NSE Nifty dropped 315.45 points, or 1.27 per cent, to settle at 24,450.45.
Nifty50 top gainers
- Bharat Electronics (1.84%)
- Reliance Industries (1.11%)
- ONGC (0.95%)
- Sun Pharma (0.84%)
- NTPC (0.68%)
- Hindalco (0.42%)
- HCL Tech (0.20%)
- Infosys (0.20%)
- Bajaj Auto (0.12%)
- Nestle India (0.12%)
Nifty50 top losers
- ICICI Bank (-3.26%)
- Eternal (-3.16%)
- Shriram Finance (-3.08%)
- Axis Bank (-2.47%)
- UltraTech Cement (-2.45%)
- Kwality Wall’s (-2.42%)
- InterGlobe Aviation (-2.41%)
- Adani Enterprises (-2.36%)
- HDFC Bank (-2.36%)
- HDFC Life (-2.31%)
BSE Sensex top gainers
- Bharat Electronics (1.84%)
- Reliance Industries (1.11%)
- Sun Pharma (0.84%)
- NTPC (0.68%)
- HCL Tech (0.20%)
- Infosys (0.20%)
BSE Sensex top losers
- ICICI Bank (-3.26%)
- Eternal (-3.16%)
- Axis Bank (-2.47%)
- UltraTech Cem. (-2.45%)
- Kwality Wall’s (-2.42%)
- InterGlobe (-2.41%)
- HDFC Bank (-2.36%)
- SBI (-2.27%)
- Bajaj Finserv (-2.25%)
- L&T (-2.21%)
The decline came as Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, jumped 2.53 per cent to $87.57 per barrel, raising concerns about inflation and macroeconomic stability.“Indian equity markets extended their decline following the prior session’s relief rally, as escalating US-Iran tensions disrupted key Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies, driving crude prices higher. A sustained rise in oil prices could weigh on investor sentiment and adversely affect India’s twin deficits, inflation trajectory, and the RBI’s monetary stance,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Ltd, PTI quoted.Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index ended higher.European markets, however, were trading in the red, while US markets ended lower on Thursday.Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 3,752.52 crore on Thursday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth Rs 5,153.37 crore, according to exchange data.On Thursday, the Sensex had rebounded 899.71 points, or 1.14 per cent, to settle at 80,015.90, snapping its four-day losing streak. The Nifty had climbed 285.40 points, or 1.17 per cent, to close at 24,765.90, ending its three-day decline.
As the US and Israel continue strikes on Iran, and with retaliatory strikes hitting nearby Middle East states, key shipping routes are being disrupted. Oil and gas production in the region is also being affected.
The BBC’s Nick Marsh examines how the war could cause a rise in living costs around the world.
Business
Stock Market Updates: Sensex Tanks 1,100 Points, Nifty Tests 24,450; India VIX Jumps Over 11%
Last Updated:
The Nifty50 and the Sensex declined at open amid weak global cues.
Sensex Today
Indian benchmark equity indices extended their losses in a volatile trading session on Friday as investors remained cautious amid escalating tensions in West Asia linked to the US-Iran conflict.
As of 3:19 PM, the Nifty50 was trading 1.21 per cent or 300 points down at 24,465, and the Sensex was trading 1,136 points or 1.42 per cent down at 78.879.
Market volatility spiked during the session, with the India VIX rising as much as 11.31% to 19.88.
Among Nifty50 constituents, InterGlobe Aviation, ICICI Bank, and Max Healthcare Institute were the top losers. On the other hand, Bharat Electronics Limited, Reliance Industries, and NTPC Limited were among the top gainers.
Broader markets also traded lower, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 declining 0.47% and 0.06%, respectively.
On the sectoral front, the Nifty IT Index was the only major gainer, rising 0.34% on the back of gains in Persistent Systems and Infosys.
Meanwhile, the Nifty Realty Index emerged as the worst-performing sector, falling nearly 2%, dragged down by losses in Godrej Properties, The Phoenix Mills, and Prestige Estates Projects.
The Nifty Private Bank Index and Nifty Financial Services Index were also among the major laggards during the session.
Global cues
Most markets across the Asia-Pacific region traded in the red as crude oil prices climbed amid rising concerns over supply disruptions linked to the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
In Asia, mainland China’s CSI 300 Index slipped around 0.1%, while South Korea’s Kospi Index declined 1.6%.
Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 0.57%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.61%. The Nasdaq Composite ended 0.26% lower.
Market uncertainty also intensified after Letitia James and attorneys general from 23 US states reportedly filed another lawsuit seeking to block tariff measures announced by Donald Trump.
Oil and gold prices
Oil prices surged as traders remained concerned about potential supply disruptions. According to a Reuters report, Brent crude futures rose nearly 5% to $85.41 per barrel in the previous session.
During the Asian trading session, Brent Crude Oil was trading 0.15% higher at $84.16 per barrel.
Meanwhile, safe-haven demand pushed Gold Futures up 1.34% to $5,146.39, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
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March 06, 2026, 09:20 IST
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