UK growth outlook cautious despite marginal CEI rebound

The Conference Board (TCB) Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United Kingdom edged down by 0.1 per cent in October 2025 to 74.1 (2016=100), marking a second consecutive monthly decline after a similar fall in September. As a result, the UK LEI contracted by 0.8 per cent over the six-month period from April to October 2025.

The UK Leading Economic Index fell 0.1 per cent in October 2025, extending its decline and signalling continued weakness in forward-looking indicators.
Over six months, the LEI contracted 0.8 per cent, though less sharply than earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index rose marginally, but its six-month growth slowed sharply, indicating softer underlying economic momentum.

While this indicates continued softening in forward-looking economic signals, the pace of decline was notably slower than the 1.5 per cent contraction recorded between October 2024 and April 2025, suggesting some moderation in downside momentum, TCB said in a release.

In contrast, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the UK rose by 0.1 per cent in October 2025 to 108.1 (2016=100), reversing a 0.1 per cent decline in September. Despite this monthly improvement, overall growth in current economic activity remained subdued.

The CEI increased by just 0.2 per cent between April and October 2025, well below the 1 per cent expansion seen in the previous six-month period from October 2024 to April 2025.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (HU)