US container imports steady despite Iran conflict: NRF

Import volume at major US container ports is not being significantly affected by the conflict in Iran but ocean carriers are seeing a related increase in fuel costs that could eventually affect retailers and their customers, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the US supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.

US container imports remain largely unaffected by the Iran conflict, though rising fuel costs are increasing shipping expenses.
Tariffs and policy uncertainty continue to pressure trade, while global supply chain disruptions pose indirect risks.
February volumes fell 7.5 per cent MoM to 1.95 million TEU.
Despite short-term fluctuations, imports in H1 2026 are projected to decline 1.8 per cent YoY.

He added that the supply chain is global and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets.

“Retailers are monitoring the situation on a daily basis and working with their transportation partners to minimize any impact,” he said, adding retailers continue to face rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty, which put downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on prices.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said volume at US container imports has been slowed by tariffs but is not being significantly affected by the situation in Iran because little US container cargo comes from the region. Nonetheless, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up the price of fuel for container ships worldwide at the same time consumers are paying more for gasoline, he said.

In addition, ports in Asia depend on fuel from the Persian Gulf and could see shortages if the conflict is not resolved soon. It is too soon to assess the impact of the two-week ceasefire announced on Tuesday, Hackett further said.

“The United States is less impacted operationally as there is no shortage of fuel at US ports, but the price of fuel here is based on international pricing,” added Hackett. “Higher fuel costs drive up the price of shipping a container for either import or export and ultimately have an inflationary impact on consumers and other end users.”

The report noted that US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU)—one 20-foot container or its equivalent—in February, although the Port of New York/New Jersey has not yet reported its data. That was down 7.5 per cent from January and down 4.2 per cent year over year (YoY). February is traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia.

Ports have not reported March numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3 per cent YoY. April is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, down 5.6 YoY; May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7.3 per cent; June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.9 per cent; July at 2.2 million TEU, down 8 per cent, and August at 2.18 million TEU, down 6 per cent.

Those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.3 million TEU, down 1.8 per cent from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. The YoY increases in May and June are largely because of the sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025.

Imports totalled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3 per cent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)