Fashion
US import volumes set to dip below 2 mn TEUs in 2025 amid high tariffs
The latest tariffs—25 per cent on upholstered furniture regardless of country and the same rate on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities—are set to take effect next week and increase in January. And a tariff increases on imports from China that was delayed by 90 days in August is scheduled to go into effect November 10, unless a deal is reached or President Donald Trump decides on another delay, NRF said in a press release.
“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF. “New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
US import cargo volumes at major ports are expected to drop below 2 million TEU monthly for the rest of 2025 as tariffs rise and retailers remain well-stocked, according to the NRF and Hackett Associates.
Peak season imports have passed, with October to December volumes projected to fall up to 19 per cent YoY, reflecting early shipments and ongoing tariff uncertainty.
“Ongoing volatility in US tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months,” said Ben Hackett founder of Hackett Associates. “Many large companies pre-emptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million TEU—one 20-foot container or its equivalent—in August. That was down 2.9 per cent from July’s 2.39 million TEU—the peak month for the year—but up 0.1 per cent year over year (YoY).
Ports have not yet reported numbers for September, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8 per cent year over year.
October is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, down 12.3 per cent YoY, and November at 1.75 million TEU, down 19.2 per cent. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.4 per cent YoY for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.
While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the YoY percentage declines are both because of this year’s early peak season and because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes, added the release.
The first half of 2025 totalled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7 per cent year over year. The full year is forecast at 24.79 million TEU, down 2.9 per cent from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
January 2026 is forecast at 1.87 million TEU, down 16.1 per cent year over year, and February 2026 is forecast at 1.77 million TEU, down 12.8 per cent.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)