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US manufacturing capex, hiring set to rise in 2026: ISM forecast

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US manufacturing capex, hiring set to rise in 2026: ISM forecast



Manufacturing capital expenditures in US are forecast to rise 3 per cent in 2026, following a 3.5 per cent increase in 2025, while employment is also set to expand, with manufacturing headcount expected to grow by 0.4 percentage point, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) December 2025 Supply Chain Planning Forecast.

The outlook reflects improving confidence among purchasing and supply management executives, with revenues expected to increase in 16 of 18 manufacturing industries in 2026. ISM noted that after moderate growth in the first half of the year, manufacturing activity is projected to accelerate in the second half, ISM said in a press release.

In manufacturing, 56 per cent of survey respondents expect revenues to be higher in 2026 than in 2025, with overall manufacturing revenues forecast to rise by a net 4.4 per cent, compared with a 2.5 per cent increase reported for 2025. Despite manufacturing remaining in contraction for the ninth consecutive month in November, executives remain optimistic about a turnaround as the year progresses.

Manufacturing capital expenditures in the US are forecast to rise 3 per cent in 2026 after a 3.5 per cent increase in 2025, while manufacturing employment is expected to grow 0.4 percentage point, according to ISM.
Revenues are projected to increase in most industries, with overall manufacturing revenues up 4.4 per cent.
A stronger second-half momentum supports cautious optimism for 2026.

Manufacturers reported operating at 82.4 per cent of normal capacity, up from 79.2 per cent in May 2025. Production capacity increased 2.8 per cent in 2025 and is expected to expand more sharply by 5.2 per cent in 2026, supported by additional hiring, investment in plant and equipment, longer operating hours, and the replacement of older machinery with more advanced technology.

While 2025 capital expenditures exceeded earlier expectations, rising 3.5 per cent on average, manufacturers anticipate a further 3 per cent increase in 2026. Apparel, transportation equipment, and machinery are among the industries forecasting higher capital outlays next year.

Prices paid for raw materials rose 5.4 per cent in 2025 and are forecast to increase by a net 4.4 per cent in 2026. Labour and benefit costs are expected to rise 2.5 per cent, reflecting continued wage pressures amid a tightening labour market.

On trade, manufacturers expect export activity to increase in the first half of 2026, while imports are projected to remain broadly unchanged. Inventory-to-sales ratios are forecast to edge lower, indicating continued focus on inventory discipline and working capital management, added the release.

Despite expectations of growth, survey respondents are less optimistic about 2026 than they were about 2025 a year earlier. Forty-four per cent believe 2026 will be better than 2025, 37 per cent expect conditions to remain the same, and 19 per cent believe 2026 will be worse. The resulting diffusion index for the 2026 outlook stands at 62.4 per cent, slightly lower than the 63.5 per cent recorded for 2025, suggesting cautious optimism amid lingering economic and cost uncertainties.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)



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South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand

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South Indian cotton yarn under pressure on weak demand



In the Mumbai market, cotton yarn prices remained unchanged as the loom sector slowed production. Although spinning mills are looking to raise their selling rates, they have not found sufficient demand. A Mumbai-based trader told Fibre*Fashion, “Power and auto looms are facing limited fabric buying from the garment industry. Export prospects are still unclear. Domestic demand is also insufficient to support any price rise. Mills are comfortable with falling cotton prices, while buyers remain silent on yarn purchases.”

In Mumbai, ** carded yarn of warp and weft varieties were traded at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.**) and ****;*,****,*** per * kg (~$**.****.**) (excluding GST), respectively. Other prices include ** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, ** carded weft at ****;*,****,*** (~$**.****.** per *.* kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, **/** carded warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg and **/** combed warp at ****;****** (~$*.***.**) per kg, according to trade sources.



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Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India

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Bangladesh–US tariff deal may have limited impact on India



The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding, which could allow near zero-tariff access for Bangladeshi garments to the American market subject to specific riders, has triggered debate within India’s textile and apparel industry. The real gains from zero tariffs may be limited due to high freight costs, longer lead times, and insufficient capacity in Bangladesh’s spinning and weaving/knitting sectors.

Bangladesh is already among the top suppliers of apparel to the US, particularly in basic knit and woven categories such as T-shirts, trousers and sweaters. A tariff advantage, even if modest, could sharpen its price competitiveness in high-volume, price-sensitive segments dominated by mass retailers.

The proposed Bangladesh–US trade understanding offering near zero-tariff access for garments has sparked debate in India’s textile sector.
While Bangladesh may gain a price edge in basic apparel, industry leaders believe the effective advantage could be limited to 2–3 per cent due to raw material dependence, capacity constraints and logistics costs.

However, Indian industry leaders argue that the net gain for Bangladesh may be restricted to around 2–3 per cent in effective competitiveness. They point to structural constraints, including Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on imported raw materials. A significant share of its fabric and yarn requirements is sourced from China and India, limiting flexibility in rules-of-origin compliance if strict value-addition conditions are attached to the deal.

Capacity limitations in spinning, weaving and man-made fibre processing are also seen as bottlenecks. While Bangladesh has built scale in garmenting, its upstream integration remains narrower than India’s diversified fibre-to-fashion base. Indian exporters emphasise that integrated supply chains offer advantages in speed, customisation and smaller batch production.

Logistics and lead times may further temper expectations. Distance from major US ports, coupled with infrastructure pressures and global shipping volatility, could offset part of the tariff benefit. In contrast, Indian suppliers have been investing in port connectivity, digital compliance systems and flexible production models to strengthen reliability.

Industry representatives also highlight that US buyers are increasingly factoring in sustainability, traceability and geopolitical risk. India’s growing adoption of renewable energy in textile clusters, compliance with global standards and broader product depth may help it retain strategic sourcing partnerships.

While some diversion of orders in basic categories cannot be ruled out, exporters believe the overall impact will be incremental rather than disruptive. The consensus view is that tariff preference alone is unlikely to override considerations of scale, compliance, diversification and long-term supply-chain resilience.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)



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US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole

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US lawmakers introduce Last Sale Valuation Act to end customs loophole



United States (US) Senator Bill Cassidy, along with Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, have introduced the ‘Last Sale Valuation Act,’ legislation aimed at closing a long-standing customs loophole that allows importers to underpay duties by declaring goods at artificially low values. The act would require tariffs to be assessed on the final sale value of imported goods rather than earlier transactions in complex overseas supply chains.

“This bill protects Louisiana workers and American businesses, ensuring loopholes don’t hold them back,” Dr Cassidy said in a press release.

US Senators Bill Cassidy and Sheldon Whitehouse have introduced the Last Sale Valuation Act to close the ‘first sale’ customs loophole that lets importers underpay duties.
The bipartisan bill would base tariffs on final sale values, strengthen US Customs enforcement and curb duty evasion.
Supporters say it will protect American manufacturers, workers and federal revenue.

If passed, the bipartisan measure would grant clearer enforcement authority to US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), streamline valuation reviews and reduce disputes over documentation, while curbing mis-invoicing and related-party pricing schemes linked to tariff evasion and illicit financial activity.

The legislation has drawn support from the American Compass, the Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Southern Shrimp Alliance.

“Cassidy’s ‘Last Sale Valuation Act’ strengthens customs valuation by assessing duties on the final transaction value of goods entering the US,” said Mark A DiPlacido, senior political economist at the American Compass, adding that closing the judicially created ‘first sale’ loophole would reduce duty evasion, simplify enforcement and increase customs revenue.

Jon Toomey, president of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, said the bill is “an important first step in restoring customs integrity,” ensuring duties are paid on the true commercial value of imported goods and helping level the playing field for American manufacturers and workers.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (CG)



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