Business
Why is this Budget so important for the UK economy?
Next week, the Chancellor will reveal the Government’s latest set of tax and spending policies as she also outlines her ambitions for the economy under the Labour Government.
The state of the economy is the key focal point ahead of the Budget, amid criticism from industry over the impact of the Government’s first Budget last year.
The state’s official forecaster will also lay out its key projections over how the economy is set to fare over the coming years, with fears that it could present a gloomy outlook in the short term.
Here the PA news agency looks at the importance of this Budget for the economy:
– What is the backdrop of the Budget?
The UK economy started the year with positive growth, with GDP (gross domestic product) rising by around 0.7% over the first quarter of the year.
Nevertheless, this had been boosted by stronger trade ahead of expected tariffs and came amid an increasingly uncertain global economic backdrop.
This growth has steadily slowed down as the year progressed, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reporting growth of 0.3% in the second quarter and 0.1% in the third quarter of the year.
The dip has come amid declines in the production sector as well as slower growth in the services sector.
Meanwhile, inflation has been elevated over the past year, striking a peak of 3.8% in July, August and September.
It dipped slightly last month – although at a slower rate than expected – but also comes amid a backdrop of falling wage growth.
Consumer finances had been supported by stronger wages but real wage growth has slowed significantly in recent months because of pressure in the labour market.
Unemployment has also lifted, striking a four-year-high of 5% in the three months to September.
– Why is the last budget important?
Weak hiring, slowing wage growth and price inflation have all been partly linked to policies which came into force following the Labour Government’s first budget last year.
The budget led to higher taxes and labour costs for many businesses when the policies came into force in April this year.
Firms were affected by the increase in the national minimum wage, higher National Insurance Contributions (NICs), reduced business rates discounts and other taxes, such as a new packaging tax.
The Bank of England highlighted that the increase in NICs and the minimum wage partly contributed to higher food price inflation earlier this year as impacted firms passed some of this on to their customers.
– What is the view of businesses ahead of the Budget?
Businesses and trade bodies have stressed that they came under pressure from the previous budget and have urged the Government to avoid hitting them with further increases.
Industry data has also shown that some business spending has been held back ahead of the Budget, with firms cautious about their financial position.
The latest monthly flash PMI economic data – which shows activity in the UK’s private sector – showed that activity was dented by cautious decision making from firms before the Budget.
– What is the view of consumers?
Consumer spending has also been broadly cautious in recent months, with Bank of England policymakers recently highlighting a focus on saving in favour of spending.
On Friday, the ONS said retail sales contracted in October for the first time in three months as shoppers also held off before the Budget.
Economists have cautioned that predicted rises in personal taxes at the Budget come mean that some consumers will reduce their spending plans rather than just delay them until nearer to Christmas.
Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said: “The risk is that the fourth quarter isn’t a golden one for retailers and that higher taxes in the Budget restrain retail spending over the crucial festive period and going into next year.”
– Why has there been focus on the Government’s ‘fiscal hole’ and what does this mean?
The so-called “fiscal hole” is the gap between the Government’s projected spending and its projected revenues, typically through taxes or borrowing.
This is particularly important for the Government as it seeks to meet the fiscal rule that it must balance spending and revenues over the next five years.
Economists have predicted that a significant “fiscal hole” has grown since the last spending review, with spending reductions lower than expected because of failures to pass welfare cuts, increased borrowing costs and expected readjustment to productivity forecasts.
Nevertheless, reports have suggested that original predictions of a roughly £30 billion fiscal hole have now been reduced, with the Financial Times indicating the OBR think this will be nearer to £20 billion.
Last week, reports indicated the Government would therefore not push forward with expected increases to income tax as they did not need to raise as much money in order to plug this black hole.
On Wednesday, the Office for Budget Responsibility will reveal how much money new spending reductions or tax increases will generate in order to address this.
It will also unveil its latest forecasts for key economic metrics such as economic growth, unemployment and inflation.
– Will the Budget be important for the financial markets?
The Budget can impact trading in the financial markets, as has significant speculation about potential policy decisions.
Typically, the value of the pound and the price of gilts – government bonds – are the most likely to be influenced by budget policy.
Gilt yields, which rise as prices fall, ticked higher earlier this week but are still significantly lower than earlier this year as borrowing costs have drifted lower amid lower interest rates.
Both the pound and gilt prices tend to reach positively to cautious spending commitments and limited tax changes, particularly if they believe tax policy is likely to hamper economic growth or wider investment.
The FTSE 100 and other domestic equity indexes do not tend to be directly impacted by changes in domestic policy, although they can be influenced by fluctuations in the pound.
Stocks in specific sectors which are targeted by policy could however move in value.
For example, listed gambling companies have seen speculation of increased levies on sports betting press down on their share value.
Business
Bessent says Argentina peso bet was ‘homerun deal’
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his risky US gamble on Argentina’s currency has paid off.
Bessent said American financial support had been repaid and the US no longer held any Argentine pesos in its exchange stabilisation fund.
The US had purchased the then-plunging currency last year in an effort to stave off further turmoil and boost the party of President Javier Milei, a key ally of President Donald Trump, in the run-up to national midterm elections.
The move sparked criticism from Democrats, who accused Bessent of risking taxpayer money on a country with a long history of financial turmoil.
In the end, Bessent said the manoeuvre had been a success.
“Stabilising a strong American ally – and making tens of millions in profit for Americans – is an America First homerun deal,” he wrote in an announcement on social media.
When the US moved to intervene in September, people were dumping the peso, mindful of the shocks they had experienced after previous elections and rattled by signs that Milei’s party might experience an upset in the mid-terms.
Bessent promised to do “what was needed” to stave off further drops in September. He announced a month later that the US had purchased pesos and agreed to extend a swap line to Argentina, allowing the country to exchange pesos for dollars.
The move helped to halt the falls in the currency, which saw further gains after Milei’s party clinched a landslide victory in the mid-term elections, though it has drifted lower more recently.
Argentina’s central bank said it settled the swap line in December. It ultimately traded just $2.5bn in pesos for dollars of a possible $20bn, according to a government report on deal.
The report said the US had also separately provided $872m in support involving reserves held at the IMF.
The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on that transaction.
“Getting your money back is a straight forward definition of a success,” said Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, even if he said tens of millions in profit was “small change” given the sums involved.
But he said big challenges continue to face the Argentine economy, given how much it spent last year from its reserves to prop up the currency.
“It’s been a short term success – Bessent got his money back,” he said. “I do remain worried that the Argentines are relying too heavily on the expectation that Secretary Bessent will ride to the rescue … and therefore aren’t showing enough urgency in their plans to rebuild their own reserves.”
Business
Housebuilders in focus as firms set to reveal figures amid sluggish market
Housebuilding giants will be centre stage next week as Persimmon, Vistry and Taylor Wimpey publish trading updates that are expected to offer a fresh snapshot of the UK housing market.
The updates will be closely watched by Government ministers, who have pledged to accelerate housebuilding, and by investors looking for signs of recovery and the Budget’s impact on the housing market as the UK heads into 2026.
Persimmon is due to publish a full-year trading statement on Tuesday, while Vistry will announce its fourth quarter trading statement on Wednesday and Taylor Wimpey a trading statement on Thursday.
UK housebuilding activity has remained in its deepest slump since the start of the pandemic, while the wider construction sector has been in contraction for a year, according to the latest S&P Global UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published on Wednesday.
The index rose slightly to 40.1 in December from 39.4 in November, remaining well below the 50-point level that signals growth, marking the 12th consecutive month of declining activity.
Survey respondents cited fragile confidence, weak demand and clients delaying decisions ahead of the autumn budget.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, said Persimmon “has been hamstrung by the wider factors over which it has little influence, including but not limited to a faltering domestic economy”.
However, Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighted that Persimmon’s homes are typically valued around 15% below the new-build national average, which “offers some resilience to ride current market challenges” and should provide some relief on building cost pressures.
Meanwhile Vistry, formerly Bovis Homes, has benefited from supportive government policy towards affordable housing, with average weekly sales rates rising by 11% between July and early November compared to the previous year, according to Hargreaves Lansdown.
On Friday, figures release by HMRC revealed UK house sales were 8% higher in November than a year earlier, with around 100,350 homes changing hands, an indication of some optimism in the market.
Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said: “With the budget done and dusted, uncertainty at least has been removed and those who put their moves on pause are returning to the market, encouraged by lower mortgage rates from some of the big lenders, with others expected to follow.
“As January progresses, well-priced homes continue to attract interest.”
Business
US job creation in 2025 slows to weakest since Covid
The number of jobs created in the US grew only modestly in December, as a weak year for the employment market in the world’s largest economy drew to a close.
Employers added 50,000 jobs in the final month of 2025, according to Labor Department data, which was fewer than expected. But the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%.
Job gains last year were the smallest since 2020, when the Covid pandemic led to widespread cuts.
Businesses have been operating in an environment marked by US President Donald Trump’s dramatic policy changes, including tariffs, an immigration crackdown and cuts to government spending.
The US economy has held up in the face of these shifts, growing at an annual rate of 4.3% over the three months to September.
But the expansion – driven by steady consumer spending and a growth in exports – has not been accompanied by significant job creation.
On average, the US added just 49,000 roles per month in 2025, down from an estimated gain of two million a month the year before.
The Labor Department said the US also added 76,000 fewer new positions in October and November than previously estimated.
Retailers and manufacturers were among the sectors reporting losses last month, which were offset by hiring at health care employers, bars and restaurants.
The data underscores the mixed dynamics facing job-seekers in the US, where hiring has cooled markedly over the last year but fears of mass layoffs have not materialised.
The US Federal Reserve central bank has responded to the slowdown by cutting its key lending rate in hopes of giving the economy a boost, despite concerns that inflation is still bubbling.
But the central bank is divided about how much lower borrowing costs should go.
Analysts said the latest figures – which showed the jobless rate recovering to the 4.4% level where it stood in September – would do little to resolve those debates.
“Today’s report confirms what we think has been evident for some time—the labor market is no longer working in favour of job seekers,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
But she added: “Until the data provide a clearer direction, a divided Fed is likely to stay that way. Lower rates are likely coming this year, but the markets may have to be patient.”
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