New Delhi: India’s real GDP growth is projected at 7.4 per cent for FY26, up from 6.5 per cent in FY25, a report has said, highlighting seasonal pick up in electricity, mining and construction sectors. The report from ICRA said that growth is expected to ease below 7 per cent in H2 FY26 from 8 per cent in H1 because of an unfavourable base effect and moderation in exports.

The report expects a pause in the February 2026 policy review by the RBI, with future decisions to be guided by the FY27 Union Budget and evolving inflation-growth dynamics. Meanwhile, economic activity remained healthy in Q3 FY26, aided by GST rate‑cut led festive demand and seasonal upticks in some sectors.

ICRA expects consumption volumes of goods and services as well as manufacturing volumes to have benefited from GST cuts and festival demand in Q3, though the export drag may intensify in H2 unless a US trade deal materialises.

The firm forecasts CPI inflation to plunge to 2 per cent in FY26 from 4.6 per cent in FY25, with WPI at 0.4 per cent. CPI rose to 0.7 per cent in November 2025 from 0.3 per cent in October, due to a narrower deflation in food and beverages.

Additionally, mining and construction activity as well as electricity demand are set to witness a seasonal pick up in the coming months, after the easing owing to rainfall-related disruptions, it said. “Cement production is expected to grow 6.5–7.5 per cent in FY26. Steel demand growth may moderate to 7–8 per cent after strong previous years. Electricity demand growth is muted at 1.5–2 per cent for FY26,” the report noted.

It also flagged external risks including delay in the US-India trade deal, and global policy changes affecting service exports. Domestic risks encompass subdued export growth, monsoon variability, fiscal constraints, and inflationary pressures from commodity prices.

Last Updated:December 27, 2025, 15:42 IST

Net office absorption in NCR jumped 61% year-on-year in 2024, the sharpest increase among major cities, to touch 9.5 million sq. ft.

Delhi-NCR has entered a phase of commercial real estate activity that is beginning to stand apart even in an otherwise buoyant Indian property cycle. Over the past few years, the region has experienced rapid real estate growth, infrastructure development, and corporate expansion, attracting global capital at an unprecedented speed and scale. Institutional investors, pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and private equity platforms treat NCR as one of Asia’s more reliable commercial markets, rather than a speculative bet.

The change is visible in the numbers: net office absorption in NCR jumped 61% year-on-year in 2024, the sharpest increase among major cities, to touch 9.5 million sq. ft. Despite substantial new supply, vacancy levels have eased 2.6% to 22.6%, while rentals across key micro-markets have strengthened by about 5% on average, with pockets like Noida Expressway and Golf Course Extension Road seeing a far steeper climb over the past five years. Prime retail assets tell a similar story, with vacancy in premium malls having slipped to 8.3%, and trading densities continue to rise.

This resilience explains why NCR has become a preferred deployment zone for foreign institutional investors. Of the USD 8.87 billion in real estate investments that entered India in 2024, global investors accounted for nearly two-thirds, and a disproportionate share found its way into Delhi–NCR’s office, retail, and mixed-use portfolios. Their interest is not episodic. Capital managers view NCR as a deep, maturing market, large enough to absorb sustained inflows without the volatility that characterized earlier cycles.

Mohit Goel, managing director of Omaxe Limited, said, “Global capital is showing unprecedented confidence in NCR’s commercial real estate, and we see this reflected strongly in emerging hubs like Faridabad and Dwarka, Delhi. Over the last two years, institutional investments in NCR’s Grade-A commercial and retail assets have risen by an estimated 30–35%, driven by stronger connectivity, infrastructure upgrades, and sustained demand from organized retail and new-age businesses. Our developments in Dwarka and Faridabad are directly benefiting from this momentum. Investors are now prioritizing long-term, stable, income-generating assets, a shift that underscores the structural transformation taking place in the NCR market.”

The momentum is driven by a combination of structural and cyclical factors. Multi-national companies are scaling their Global Capability Centres, which have evolved from back-office support roles to high-value engineering and digital functions. This shift has materially changed the nature of demand. NCR’s strong engineering workforce, proximity to decision-making centres, and established social infrastructure make it a preferred base for complex, high-skill GCC operations.

Sandeep Chhillar, founder and chairman of Landmark Group, said, “NCR has reached a maturity level where global investors feel comfortable committing long-term capital. The region offers depth, diverse occupiers, a large GCC presence, and rental resilience across cycles. What stands out today is the consistency of demand in office and retail assets. Infrastructure upgrades have unlocked several micro-markets, reducing risk and widening opportunity. Institutional investors recognize this stability, and that is why we expect inflows into NCR’s commercial assets to accelerate over the next few years.”

Another easily recognizable trend is the predilection for “return-ready” commercial assets. This inherently places NCR in pole position, given its sheer stock of Grade A assets. At rentals averaging INR 340 per sq. ft. per month in prime pockets, Delhi NCR is the APAC region’s sixth most-expensive office market with clearer income visibility than many competing Asian cities.

Ishaan Singh, director of AIPL, said, “What differentiates NCR today is the depth of its demand base. From Grade-A office occupiers to global retail brands, the region attracts tenants looking at long-term consolidation. This stability, supported by strong consumption and infrastructure, has made NCR very attractive for global capital. Quality assets will continue to outperform, and institutional investors are increasingly seeking exposure in Grade A projects. Moreover, we expect this momentum to sustain for a long time period.”

Mohit Batra, regional director of Realistic Realtors, said, “NCR’s commercial landscape is going through a structural transformation backed by growth in consumption, expansion by corporates, and a preference for organized retail formats. The market has demonstrated resilience even when global conditions were uncertain. The investor community sees footfall, spending power, and high-quality mixed-use developments coming together. As retail-led destinations become community meeting points and offices increasingly see experiential spaces, NCR presents an interesting case for long-term yield-driven investment.”

As per industry estimates, GCCs alone may lease 50-55 million sq. ft. nationally by FY27, with NCR capturing a significant share. Due to this, NCR is no longer competing with domestic markets alone; it is competing with regional Asian cities for capital, and increasingly, it is winning. Global funds are convinced that India’s multi-decade growth cycle has enough momentum to support long-tenure commercial returns. NCR, with its expanding corporate footprint and maturing urban form, finds itself at the centre of this shift, and there is little sign of the momentum cooling.

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