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‘2025 marks tentative stability, but structural risks persist’ | The Express Tribune
Chamber flags trade deficit, energy costs and weak investment despite easing inflation
LCCI President Faheemur Rehman Saigol. Photo (file)
LAHORE:
President of the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Faheemur Rehman Saigol, has described 2025 as a year of gradual economic stability for Pakistan but warned that major structural challenges continue to restrict sustainable growth.
According to a statement issued on Tuesday, Saigol said several economic indicators improved during the year. However, issues including a widening trade deficit, high energy costs, slow investment and a limited tax net remain serious obstacles for the economy.
Emphasising ease of doing business, he said investors require predictable policies and lower costs to invest confidently in domestic industries. He expressed concern over high electricity prices, misuse of statutory regulatory orders and delays in export policy reforms. He also called for bringing exports back under the final tax regime to support exporters.
Saigol said the trade deficit continues to pose a major challenge and requires urgent attention. He welcomed the recent privatisation of Pakistan International Airlines, noting that its acquisition by a Pakistani consortium reflected growing local investor capacity. He added that privatisation of other state-owned enterprises should be pursued.
Reviewing broader trends, he said consistent policies, economic reforms and strong remittance inflows helped improve the business climate and restore confidence for investment, exports and industrial activity.
He highlighted that remittances reached about $38.3 billion in FY2024-25, a 26% increase from the previous year, and are expected to approach $42 billion by year-end. Remittances during JulyNovember FY2025-26 exceeded $16 billion, showing over 9% growth year-on-year, according to official data.
Saigol said strong inflows supported foreign exchange reserves, stabilised the rupee and reduced import pressures. He also cited a sharp decline in inflation, with average inflation falling to 4.5% from 23.4% a year earlier, easing pressure on consumers and businesses.
He noted improved market confidence, reflected in the KSE-100 index surpassing 170,000 points, higher foreign exchange reserves and reduced interest rates, which lowered borrowing costs. Despite growth in IT exports, he said investment remained below expectations due to high energy costs. He concluded that lasting growth requires continued reforms in energy, exports and taxation.
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Stock markets outlook: Dalal Street braces for swings as RBI MPC decision, war risks weigh on sentiment–Check key triggers – The Times of India
Domestic equities are expected to remain volatile this week as investors track the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy decision, global macroeconomic cues and evolving developments in the West Asia conflict, analysts said, according to PTI.Market participants will also keep a close watch on crude oil price movements and foreign fund flows, which continue to influence sentiment.Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Ltd, said the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be the key domestic trigger, with investors focusing on the central bank’s stance on inflation and growth.“A rate pause is near-certain consensus, the central bank walks a tightrope between crude-driven inflation risks and a four-year low Manufacturing PMI signalling a softening growth impulse. The governor’s commentary on the rate cycle trajectory and FY27 projections will be closely monitored.“Globally, the US March CPI reading will carry significant importance, as it buries residual Fed rate-cut hopes, strengthens the dollar and tightens financial conditions for emerging markets, including India,” Nair said.He added that geopolitical developments in West Asia will remain the dominant factor shaping market direction.“Indian markets return after a three-day gap and remain acutely vulnerable to weekend war developments, with crude trajectory and any credible ceasefire signal being the decisive variable that could either trigger a sharp relief rally or extend the current sell-on-rise mode,” he said.In the previous holiday-shortened week, the BSE Sensex declined 263.67 points, or 0.35%, while the NSE Nifty fell 106.5 points, or 0.46%.Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research (Wealth Management) at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said investor sentiment will remain closely linked to developments in the West Asia conflict.Brent crude prices have stayed elevated near $107 per barrel, fuelling concerns around imported inflation. Currency pressures have also intensified, with the rupee weakening sharply before recovering towards Rs 93 against the US dollar following RBI intervention, he noted.Foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows remain a key overhang, with March witnessing heavy selling of Rs 1.2 lakh crore, among the highest monthly outflows in recent years.“Investors will monitor the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, GDP data, and initial jobless claims for further cues on growth and the policy trajectory.“Overall, markets are expected to remain volatile as geopolitical developments, crude price movements, FII flows and global macro data continue to drive sentiment,” Khemka said.Analysts said any signs of de-escalation in the West Asia conflict could ease crude prices and stabilise the currency, offering relief to markets, while further escalation may prolong risk aversion and keep pressure on foreign flows.
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