New Delhi: The RBI has raised its projection of India’s GDP growth rate to 6.8 per cent for 2025-26 from 6.5 per cent earlier, as the implementation of several growth-inducing structural reforms, including streamlining of GST, is expected to offset some of the adverse effects of the external headwinds, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Wednesday. 

He pointed out that India’s GDP recorded a robust growth of 7.8 per cent in Q1:2025-26, driven by strong private consumption and fixed investment. On the supply side, growth in gross value added (GVA) at 7.6 per cent was led by a revival in manufacturing and steady expansion in services. Available high-frequency indicators suggest that economic activity continues to remain resilient. Rural demand remains strong, riding on a good monsoon and robust agriculture activity, while urban demand is showing a gradual revival, the RBI Governor added.

“Taking all these factors into account, real GDP growth for 2025-26 is now projected at 6.8 per cent, with Q2 at 7.0 per cent, Q3 at 6.4 per cent, and Q4 at 6.2 per cent,” Malhotra explained. He also said that the global economy has been more resilient than anticipated in 2025, with robust growth in the US and China. 

The outlook, however, remains clouded amidst elevated policy uncertainty. Inflation has remained above their respective targets in some advanced economies, posing fresh challenges for central banks as they navigate the shifting growth-inflation dynamics. Financial markets have been volatile. The US dollar strengthened after the upward revision of US growth numbers for the second quarter, and treasury yields hardened recently, tracking changes in policy rate expectations. Equities have remained buoyant across several advanced and emerging market economies.

The RBI Governor further stated that revenue expenditure of the Union and state governments registered robust growth during the fiscal year so far (April-July). Investment activity, as suggested by healthy growth in construction indicators, i.e., cement production and steel consumption in July-August, is holding up well even though production and import of capital goods witnessed some moderation. Recovery in the manufacturing sector continues while services activity is sustaining its momentum.

Looking ahead, an above normal monsoon, good progress of kharif sowing and adequate reservoir levels have further brightened prospects of agriculture and rural demand. Buoyancy in the services sector, coupled with steady employment conditions, is supportive of demand, which is expected to get a further boost from the rationalisation of goods and services tax (GST) rates. Rising capacity utilisation, conducive financial conditions, and improving domestic demand should continue to facilitate fixed investment, he observed.

However, ongoing tariff and trade policy uncertainties will impact external demand for goods and services. Prolonged geopolitical tensions and volatility in international financial markets caused by risk-off sentiments of investors also pose downside risks to the growth outlook, the RBI Governor added.

Gold price prediction today: Gold and silver prices are poised for a long-term bull run, though there may be short term volatility due to global factors, says Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. He shares his views and recommendations for gold and silver investors:Gold continued to shine bright at the start of the current week, climbing past $3,800 per oz for the first time ever in Spot markets. The Yellow metal printed yet another all-time high near $3,871 in Spot on Tuesday after spending much of last week consolidating just below the previous all-time high near $3,791. This was due to positive momentum which returned following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. While the data came in broadly as expected, bets remain elevated that the US Fed might continue easing its rates in the upcoming meeting in October favoring sentiments in Gold & Silver.Meanwhile in the current week the US faces the risk of a government shutdown effective 1st October unless Congress agrees on new funding legislation. Republican leaders in the House pushed a stopgap bill to extend funding through November 21, but Senate Democrats have refused to back it without policy concessions. The dollar had suffered from rising risk of a US government shutdown and falling oil prices since the weekend, with safe haven currencies like yen emerging as the top performer. President Trump had already stated that a shutdown is now likely after little progress on congressional negotiations. In case of a shutdown, a lower Yen may well remain the favourite trade as history shows it lost 1.5% during the 2018-19 shutdown.Finally, focus also remains on US data due later in the week, with the closely monitored JOLTS report due on Tuesday followed by Payrolls on Friday. An upside surprise in US payrolls may bring in volatility in prices, but data might also be delayed due to the risk of shutdown. An extended shutdown may also result in profit booking moves in global equities leading to risk of a near term correction in prices especially in Silver complex.

Gold Price Outlook:

Weekly View: Volatile week ahead for precious metalsBrace for high volatility in bullion prices especially in silver, on a weekly basis as markets witness a data heavy week along with US shutdown risk to persist in the current week. The department of labor had said that the release of economic data, including Non farm payrolls would be suspended if a US shutdown takes place, which could again bring back safe haven appeal in gold on medium term basis.Any major corrective move in global equities in case of US shutdown in near term, needs to be watched out which could limit upside especially in silver prices. This is due the fact that silver had already witnessed a run up of up to 50 % in prices since 21st of April, the day where Gold hit an all time peak, while gold prices are up only 12 – 13 % since then.Again Gold/Silver ratio which has declined to almost 80 levels on Friday (in International Spot markets) from a high of 107 hit on 21st April is now poised to bounce back in near term to 84 – 85 levels indicating Silver may witness more downside moves as compared to Gold in near term.However from a medium to long term perspective, Gold is still poised to continue its bull run as it may test a level $ 3,950 – 4,000 per oz in spot markets by the end of 2025 or by the start of next year. Long term bias in Silver prices also remains positive as a breach of all-time highs in International markets (hit in Apr 2011 around $ 49.60) could be witnessed by the start of next year.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

Last Updated:October 01, 2025, 09:12 IST

Indian equities are poised for a subdued start on Wednesday as investors remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s MPC

Stock market Today

Indian equities are poised for a subdued start on Wednesday as investors remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy announcement scheduled for 10 a.m. At 7:17 a.m., GIFT Nifty futures were trading 12 points lower at 24,767, signaling a soft opening for domestic markets.

Most economists expect the RBI to hold rates steady, though some anticipate a rate cut. A poll revealed that while the majority forecast a status quo, a few—including the State Bank of India (SBI)—project an additional 25-basis-point (bps) reduction in the repo rate.

Global Cues

Asian markets opened on a mixed note following overnight gains on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 1.01 per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.95 per cent. Chinese markets remained closed for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays.

On Wall Street, all three major indices ended Tuesday’s volatile session higher despite lingering concerns over a potential US government shutdown, which could delay key economic data releases and complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate policy outlook.

Aparna Deb

Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a…Read More

Aparna Deb is a Subeditor and writes for the business vertical of News18.com. She has a nose for news that matters. She is inquisitive and curious about things. Among other things, financial markets, economy, a… Read More

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