Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty opened in red on Monday on weak global cues as the closure of Strait of Hormuz led to an increase in oil prices. However the market quickly revered losses to move in green territory. While Nifty50 went above 24,400, BSE Sensex was up over 300 points. At 11:00 AM, Nifty50 was trading at 24,430.50, up 77 points or 0.32%. BSE Sensex was at 78,805.37, up 312 points or 0.40%.A key factor to watch will be the next round of diplomatic talks between the US and Iran, particularly as the April 22 ceasefire deadline draws closer.Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says, “With the deescalation- escalation drama in the West Asian conflict continuing, the market will remain volatile in the near-term. With Iran hardening its position again, closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to retaliate to US’ seizure of an Iranian ship ‘violating the US blockade’, there is potential for a flare up of the conflict when the ceasefire ends on 22nd April. However, the market signals do not reflect renewed concern and flare up of the conflict. Even though Brent crude has spiked back to $95 levels from below $90 on Friday, there is no panic in the crude market.” “A significant trend in the market now is the outperformance of the broader market. Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap indices are back to pre-war levels. This is in contrast to the Nifty which is still 4% below pre-war levels. The market is responding positively to good results from the broader market space. Even with the uncertainty of the West Asia tensions weighing on the market, particular stocks will respond to good results, particularly when the results beat expectations.“At the start of the new week, oil prices climbed, the US dollar rebounded from recent lows, and global equities showed mixed movement as tensions in the Middle East disrupted shipping flows in and out of the Gulf. Even so, market participants continued to anticipate a possible resolution.Early Monday trends indicated declines in US equity futures, with S&P 500 futures down 0.6% by mid-morning in Tokyo. In Asia, Hang Seng futures rose 1.2%, Nikkei 225 futures edged up 0.3%, Japan’s Topix gained 0.5%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained largely unchanged. In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 futures slipped 1.2%.Crude oil prices rebounded by more than 6% on Monday after plunging over 9% on Friday, as reports emerged that the Strait of Hormuz had been shut again following mutual accusations by the US and Iran of ceasefire violations involving attacks on vessels over the weekend.Gold prices declined by over 1% on Monday as the strengthening dollar weighed on the metal, while uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations pushed oil prices higher and reignited concerns about inflation.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

Britain is to “flirt” with recession and unemployment will be sent soaring amid the fallout of the Iran war, according to economic forecasters.

The latest Item Club report predicts the economy will flatline in the second and third quarters, which will leave gross domestic product (GDP) rising by 0.7% over the year as a whole, down from 1.4% expansion in 2025.

While the economy will “flirt with recession” – defined as two quarters or more in a row of falling GDP – it will also see higher oil and energy prices weigh on activity and the jobs market suffer its “biggest hit since the pandemic”, the Item Club warned.

But it predicted that interest rates will remain on hold throughout 2026 despite soaring inflation caused by the war.

Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the Item Club, said: “Spiralling energy costs and disruption to supply chains will push the UK to the brink of a technical recession in the middle of this year.

“Consumers’ spending power will be squeezed, while more expensive financing arrangements and a less certain global economic backdrop will pour cold water on companies’ investment plans.”

The independent forecasting group said the UK’s jobless rate will peak at 5.8% by the middle of 2027, with almost 250,000 more people without a job.

It follows a gloomy economic outlook report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week showing the UK facing the biggest downgrade to growth among the G7 group of countries, with 0.8% forecast for 2026, down sharply from the 1.3% predicted in January.

But recent figures showed the UK economy had stronger-than-first thought momentum before the Iran war impact, with data showing GDP grew by 0.5% month-on-month in February – the fastest expansion since January 2024.

The Item Club said inflation is set to soar to almost 4% in the second half of 2026 – nearly double the Bank’s 2% target – but that Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policymakers will hold off from knee-jerk hikes to interest rates.

Mr Swannell said: “We don’t expect the Bank of England to repeat the 2022 playbook and hike interest rates as energy prices rise.

“This time policy is already restrictive, and a more fragile economy means that businesses will find it harder to pass on higher costs to the consumer.

“Instead, the MPC can stand pat as it waits for inflation to fall back before it cuts interest rates a couple more times in the middle of next year.”

Pakistan has expressed hopes to repay the remaining $1.5 billion of the total $3.5 billion loan to UAE by April 23. This comes ahead of an expected $1.2 billion disbursement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), following recent discussions in Washington.Spokesperson for the State Bank of Pakistan, country’s central bank told PTI, “Pakistan has repaid $2 billion of a $3.5 billion fund, which was placed by the United Arab Emirates with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) deposit with the central bank.”“The amount of $2 billion was transferred to the UAE following the maturity of deposits held by the State Bank. The remaining amount has to be paid by April 23,” he said.Earlier this week, the Saudi Fund for Development deposited $2 billion of its $3 billion support with the State Bank of Pakistan.The central bank spokesperson added that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves had remained steady due to ongoing inflows into the financial system.Meanwhile, in a separate update, Pakistan’s finance minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in Washington that the country is anticipating a $1.2 billion release under the Staff Level Agreement (SLA) reached with the IMF after recent negotiations in the US capital. He said the IMF Executive Board is expected to meet in mid-May in Washington to review the agreement, which would clear the next tranche under the programme.The UAE had earlier extended $3.5 billion to support Pakistan’s balance of payments position, with the arrangement rolled over until recently. However, reports earlier this month suggested the UAE sought immediate repayment of funds following regional developments in the Middle East after the US-Israel launched joint strikes on Iran.In parallel, Saudi Arabia has also moved to support Pakistan’s external financing needs. The Saudi Fund for Development has signed an agreement with the SBP allowing an extension in the maturity of a $3 billion deposit. On Thursday, it deposited $2 billion of that total with the central bank, providing additional support to Pakistan’s reserves.“The agreement, signed between the SaudiA Fund for Development (SFD) and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), provides for the extension in the maturity of a $3 billion deposit placed by SFD with the State Bank of Pakistan,” said a post on X by the ministry of finance.Officials said Pakistan has been paying around 6 per cent interest on the UAE-linked funds. The deposit arrangements were previously rolled over on a yearly basis, but in December 2025, the term was first extended for one month and then for two months until April 17.Pakistan’s pending billsFor the current fiscal year, Pakistan requires approximately $12 billion in external deposit rollovers, including $5 billion from Saudi Arabia, $4 billion from China, and $3 billion from the UAE.According to official figures, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $16.4 billion as of March 27, a level authorities said was sufficient to cover nearly three months of imports. The latest repayment to the UAE comes as the country continues to manage pressure on its external financial position.