The 2025 MLB division series matchups are starting to take shape after the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team to advance out of the wild-card round.

L.A.’s sweep sets up a division series showdown with the Philadelphia Phillies starting Saturday in Philadelphia.

What have we learned about each team so far? What does each remaining team need to do to move on to the league championship series? Which players could be October difference-makers? And which favorites should be on upset watch in the round ahead?

ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield are here to break it all down as every division series matchup is set.

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LAD-PHI

NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Upset forecast: (Dodgers win more simulations) Why no number in that parenthetical information? We’d have to use too many decimals! The Dodgers did win more sims, but their edge was four — out of 10,000 runs of the forecasting machinery. In that sense, there can’t possibly be an upset in this matchup between, quite possibly, the two strongest teams left in the bracket.

This feels like a matchup that the bullpens will decide, and even that is a toss-up. The Dodgers led the majors in blown saves during the second half, but their bullpen numbers are better than Philadelphia’s since the start of September. Maybe it’s as simple as this: When in doubt, pick the team that has Shohei Ohtani.

Phillies concern level: Nonexistent. Look, the Phillies know who they are playing. But with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sanchez and Jhoan Duran on their side, this is not a team that is going to fret about anything. They will just wait for the adrenaline to flow. — Doolittle

Los Angeles Dodgers

What impressed you most about them in the wild-card round?

The Dodgers haven’t really run out their “A” team for most of the season as they babied their starters for much of the season, but now we can see how good this team can be with a healthy rotation. Blake Snell was dominant in the first game until finally tiring in the seventh. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the seasonlong ace for the Dodgers, was solid in Game 2, escaping a bases-loaded no-outs jam in the sixth. The Dodgers were confident enough in those two that they saved Ohtani for what would have been Game 3 — and now is Game 1 of the NLDS. Oh, Ohtani can hit a little, too. Remember, the Dodgers won it all last season with Ohtani having a good-but-not-great postseason at the plate. After his two-homer game in Game 1, watch out.

Why will/won’t it continue against the Phillies?

The Dodgers certainly have to love where they are. Ohtani slowly worked his way up to a normal workload and pitched six innings in his final start, throwing 91 pitches. He allowed just one run over his final four appearances and surrendered just three home runs in 47 innings. Thanks to having three potential off days to play five games in this series, Ohtani could start Game 5 on six days of rest.

After his initial one-inning appearances in June, Ohtani was given at least six days off between starts, and his three starts in September came with eight, 10 and six days of rest, and he will have 10 days before his Game 1 NLDS appearance. The Dodgers will worry about the NLCS if they get there.

Which one player must deliver for L.A. to move on?

This is clearly about players, plural — as in relief pitchers. The sketchy Dodgers bullpen didn’t ease the confidence of Dodgers fans — or Dave Roberts — with a poor showing in Game 1 against Cincinnati, when the Dodgers had a 10-2 lead only to see the bullpen start walking everybody and the Reds load the bases and have the tying run on deck. Who Roberts trusts in the highest-leverage situations — and can deliver — remains a question. — Schoenfield

Philadelphia Phillies

What carried the Phillies to an October bye?

The starting rotation and a monster season from Kyle Schwarber. The rotation led the NL in ERA and led the majors — by 51 innings — in innings pitched. Cristopher Sanchez led the way with an absolute monster season of his own — in fact, it was Sanchez, and not Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal, who led the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR. Meanwhile, Schwarber led the NL with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs, including setting a major league record with 23 home runs as a left-handed batter against left-handed pitchers.

Will it continue against the Dodgers?

Of course, a large part of that rotation success was Zack Wheeler, but he’s out for the postseason. Ranger Suarez had a terrific season but wasn’t great his final three starts, allowing 12 runs and four home runs in 14⅓ innings. And the fourth starter after Jesus Luzardo is either Aaron Nola, who doesn’t exactly inspire confidence given his 6.01 ERA and mediocre postseason results in his career, or Walker Buehler, who was signed at the end of August after the Red Sox released him. In other words: There are at least some slight concerns here for a rotation that was so good.

As for Schwarber: He has proved before he’s a tough out in October, and coming off his best season, he’s primed for a big postseason.

Which one player must deliver to put Philadelphia in the NLCS?

Trea Turner feels like the key guy here. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been clutch playoff performers throughout their careers, but the Phillies will need offense from more than just those two — and that’s been a problem the past two postseasons. Turner had his best season with the Phillies but missed most of September with a hamstring injury, returning only for two at-bats in the final game of the regular season. He sets the table for Schwarber and Harper. If he’s getting on base, that’s a very good thing. — Schoenfield

San Diego Padres star reliever Mason Miller made MLB postseason history on Wednesday night in an effort to keep his team’s season alive. 

The Padres needed a win in Game 2 of their Wild Card series against the Chicago Cubs after losing Game 1 on Tuesday afternoon in the Windy City, and they leaned on the star-studded bullpen to get the job done. 

Miller was among those as he pitched nearly two innings, but it was his ninth pitch of the night that rewrote the MLB record books. The flame-throwing righty threw a 104.5 mph fastball to strike out Cubs catcher Carson Kelly. 

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That pitch wasn’t just the fastest Miller has thrown in his career, but it’s also the fastest pitch in the postseason since pitching track in 2008, according to MLB.com’s Sarah Langs. 

It was an incredible outing by Miller, who struck out all five of the batters he faced over 1.2 innings of work. In all, he’s seen seven batters in this Wild Card series, and he’s set all of them down by strikeout. 

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The Padres went with Robert Suarez, another stud right-hander, for the final four outs in the 3-0 victory that brings this postseason bout to a decisive Game 3 on Thursday in Chicago. 

Freddy Fermin and Mason Miller of the San Diego Padres interact during Game Two of the National League Wild Card Series between the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

San Diego’s offense saw a jolt thanks to veteran third baseman Manny Machado, who belted a two-run homer in the top of the fifth inning to pull ahead after one run scored by the Padres in the first inning. 

The Padres’ pitching staff held the Cubs to just four scattered hits in this game, as Dylan Cease went 3.2 innings, allowing three hits and striking out five over his 69-pitch outing. 

It may have been short, but that’s what happens when you have the arms San Diego does in the bullpen. Adrian Morejon went 2.1 innings without allowing a hit before Miller came in. 

Mason Miller of the San Diego Padres pitches during Game Two of the National League Wild Card Series between the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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More of the same should be expected in a do-or-die game, though the ball will first go to the veteran Yu Darvish. The Cubs will turn to Jameson Taillon to start Game 3. 

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INDIANAPOLIS — Veteran cornerback Xavien Howard signed with the Indianapolis Colts in August hoping to revive his career after a year away from the NFL.

Now, after four games, the four-time Pro Bowl selection has decided to abruptly reverse course.

Howard, 32, informed the Colts on Wednesday of his decision to retire on the heels of a much-criticized performance against the Los Angeles Rams and star receiver Puka Nacua on Sunday. Howard was not at practice Wednesday, but the team’s injury report indicated he was absent because of a personal matter.

In a statement posted to social media, Howard wrote that “my dream has now changed” and he is “no longer willing” to put football before his family.

“My purpose has been fulfilled in this sport, but my kids are more important to me than football,” he wrote. “I’ve had a hell of a career, and even though it’s ending in a unique way, I’m cool with that because for once I’m putting my family first and I’m proud and excited about that decision.”

Coach Shane Steichen and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo had fielded repeated questions since the game about their intentions moving forward with Howard, who had been starting as an outside cornerback for Indianapolis since Week 1. Neither coach indicated any plan to make a lineup change.

Asked Wednesday whether he might discuss a personnel change, Steichen left the door open for Howard to remain in the lineup. There was no indication the Colts were considering releasing Howard prior to his retirement decision.

“As the head coach, obviously, I have final decision on all those things and we have those conversations throughout the week,” Steichen said. “Looking back, too, with Xavien, those were two elite receivers [Nacua and Davante Adams] that we were going up against last week. So, again, we’ll go through the process this week and evaluate everything like we do every week.”

Howard’s struggles Sunday were inexplicable. According to Next-Gen Stats, he was the nearest defender on seven receptions that produced 112 yards and a touchdown. The Colts elected to use No. 1 cornerback Charvarius Ward mostly against Adams, but Adams also made a play during one of his rare snaps lined up against Howard. Nacua finished with 13 catches for 170 yards — both season highs.

Asked after the Rams game whether he felt quarterback Matthew Stafford was targeting him, Howard said, “I don’t. It’s football at the end of the day.” Asked to evaluate his performance, he said, “Not to my ability.”

The struggles in Los Angeles followed a tough outing in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos, when Howard was flagged twice for pass interference and once for defensive holding.

In spite of his ending, Howard walks away from the NFL with an impressive track record. He twice led the NFL in interceptions during his time with the Miami Dolphins, who drafted him in the second round in 2016. In 2020, when he had a career year with league highs in interceptions (10) and passes defensed (20), he was a first-team All-Pro and a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year.

Howard has 29 career interceptions, third among active players behind Harrison Smith and Kevin Byard III. He started 103 career games.