Business
Crude oil: Opec+ to raise production by 137,000 bpd from November; group stays cautious amid supply glut fears – The Times of India
Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other members of Opec+ on Sunday decided to raise their oil production quotas by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for November, continuing efforts to reclaim market share amid cautious demand projections, AFP reported.“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137 thousand barrels per day from October’s levels,” Opec+ said in a statement after an online meeting.The increase was lower than many analysts had anticipated, with the group seeking to avoid exerting downward pressure on prices amid weak global demand. “Opec+8 stepped carefully after witnessing how nervous the market had become in light of rumours that production could be hiked by 500,000 barrels a day,” said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy. “The group is walking a tightrope between maintaining stability and clawing back market share in a surplus environment.”Since April, the eight members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Algeria — have already raised their quotas by more than 2.5 million bpd. The initial focus of Opec+ this year was to support high prices by limiting supply, but the strategy shifted in April to prioritise regaining market share from competitors including the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina.Global oil demand projections are modest. The International Energy Agency expects consumption to rise by only 700,000 bpd between 2025 and 2026, while Opec forecasts higher growth of 1.3 million bpd in 2025 and 1.4 million bpd in 2026.Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded below $65 per barrel on Friday, down about 8% in a week amid concerns over a potential surge in Opec+ production.Russia, the cartel’s second-largest producer after Saudi Arabia, relies on high oil prices to fund its war effort in Ukraine but has limited capacity to increase output due to US and European sanctions. “The increase decided Sunday is manageable for Russia,” said Leon. The country currently produces around 9.25 million bpd, close to its maximum capacity of 9.45 million bpd, down from roughly 10 million before the conflict, analysts said.Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries since August have intensified exports, as domestic utilisation of crude has declined, making Russia even more dependent on foreign markets, said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyst at Global Risk Management
Business
India outlook: Reforms put wind in its sails amid global headwinds; PMO’s Shaktikanta Das maps the road ahead – The Times of India
India is at the cusp of a historic economic journey, with government policies and reforms giving the country “wind in its sails” even as global trade uncertainties intensify, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister Shaktikanta Das said on Friday.Delivering the inaugural Bibek Debroy Memorial Lecture, Das said India has emerged stronger from successive global shocks and is now positioned to pursue sustained growth despite a fragmented global economic order, PTI reported.
Atmanirbharta as resilience, not isolation“At a time when the consensus that powered globalisation in past decades has frayed and multilateral cooperation has become harder to achieve, India has embraced Atmanirbharta as the overarching principle of our policies,” Das said.Clarifying the approach, he added: “Atmanirbharta is not being isolationist, but a strategy to build core competence and resilience. Economic Atmanirbharta means developing the capacity to produce critical goods and technologies at home and reducing over-reliance on foreign sources.”A self-reliant economy, backed by strong domestic capabilities and an autonomous foreign policy, provides India greater strength to sustain growth and navigate external challenges, he said. “Together, they ensure that India’s rise is resilient, sustainable and beneficial to us and to the world.”From global shocks to ‘wind in our sails’Das said India has successfully emerged from what appeared to be “perfect storms” triggered by multiple global shocks since the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020.“And now with the policies that the country has adopted, the wind is in our sails. We are indeed on our path to Viksit Bharat,” he said.India, he noted, stands at an inflection point where shifting geopolitical alignments and trade policies are reshaping the global economic landscape.“India stands today at the cusp of a historic journey — from being an incredible India to a credible India. There will be headwinds and challenges emanating from known and unknown sources,” Das said.Fragmenting world, India’s strategic responseDas flagged the strain on global institutions and multilateral frameworks, saying traditional multilateralism is increasingly being sidelined by geopolitical rivalries, protectionism and fragmentation.“Key international institutions are struggling to deliver on their mandates… Trade and supply chains, once seen as neutral conduits of globalisation, are increasingly being utilised as instrumentalities of disruption and dominance,” he said.Reshoring, friend-shoring and restricted technology flows are fragmenting global networks, reflecting broader geo-economic fragmentation, Das added.Against this backdrop, India’s approach is pragmatic. “India stands for a cooperative and rules-based global system; but at the same time, we are proactively forging partnerships and strategies to secure our national interest in a world where power is more diffused,” he said.“We, of course, acknowledge that the multilateral system must be revitalised, even as we adapt to new alignments,” Das added.
Business
Bessent says Argentina peso bet was ‘homerun deal’
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his risky US gamble on Argentina’s currency has paid off.
Bessent said American financial support had been repaid and the US no longer held any Argentine pesos in its exchange stabilisation fund.
The US had purchased the then-plunging currency last year in an effort to stave off further turmoil and boost the party of President Javier Milei, a key ally of President Donald Trump, in the run-up to national midterm elections.
The move sparked criticism from Democrats, who accused Bessent of risking taxpayer money on a country with a long history of financial turmoil.
In the end, Bessent said the manoeuvre had been a success.
“Stabilising a strong American ally – and making tens of millions in profit for Americans – is an America First homerun deal,” he wrote in an announcement on social media.
When the US moved to intervene in September, people were dumping the peso, mindful of the shocks they had experienced after previous elections and rattled by signs that Milei’s party might experience an upset in the mid-terms.
Bessent promised to do “what was needed” to stave off further drops in September. He announced a month later that the US had purchased pesos and agreed to extend a swap line to Argentina, allowing the country to exchange pesos for dollars.
The move helped to halt the falls in the currency, which saw further gains after Milei’s party clinched a landslide victory in the mid-term elections, though it has drifted lower more recently.
Argentina’s central bank said it settled the swap line in December. It ultimately traded just $2.5bn in pesos for dollars of a possible $20bn, according to a government report on deal.
The report said the US had also separately provided $872m in support involving reserves held at the IMF.
The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on that transaction.
“Getting your money back is a straight forward definition of a success,” said Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, even if he said tens of millions in profit was “small change” given the sums involved.
But he said big challenges continue to face the Argentine economy, given how much it spent last year from its reserves to prop up the currency.
“It’s been a short term success – Bessent got his money back,” he said. “I do remain worried that the Argentines are relying too heavily on the expectation that Secretary Bessent will ride to the rescue … and therefore aren’t showing enough urgency in their plans to rebuild their own reserves.”
Business
Housebuilders in focus as firms set to reveal figures amid sluggish market
Housebuilding giants will be centre stage next week as Persimmon, Vistry and Taylor Wimpey publish trading updates that are expected to offer a fresh snapshot of the UK housing market.
The updates will be closely watched by Government ministers, who have pledged to accelerate housebuilding, and by investors looking for signs of recovery and the Budget’s impact on the housing market as the UK heads into 2026.
Persimmon is due to publish a full-year trading statement on Tuesday, while Vistry will announce its fourth quarter trading statement on Wednesday and Taylor Wimpey a trading statement on Thursday.
UK housebuilding activity has remained in its deepest slump since the start of the pandemic, while the wider construction sector has been in contraction for a year, according to the latest S&P Global UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published on Wednesday.
The index rose slightly to 40.1 in December from 39.4 in November, remaining well below the 50-point level that signals growth, marking the 12th consecutive month of declining activity.
Survey respondents cited fragile confidence, weak demand and clients delaying decisions ahead of the autumn budget.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, said Persimmon “has been hamstrung by the wider factors over which it has little influence, including but not limited to a faltering domestic economy”.
However, Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighted that Persimmon’s homes are typically valued around 15% below the new-build national average, which “offers some resilience to ride current market challenges” and should provide some relief on building cost pressures.
Meanwhile Vistry, formerly Bovis Homes, has benefited from supportive government policy towards affordable housing, with average weekly sales rates rising by 11% between July and early November compared to the previous year, according to Hargreaves Lansdown.
On Friday, figures release by HMRC revealed UK house sales were 8% higher in November than a year earlier, with around 100,350 homes changing hands, an indication of some optimism in the market.
Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said: “With the budget done and dusted, uncertainty at least has been removed and those who put their moves on pause are returning to the market, encouraged by lower mortgage rates from some of the big lenders, with others expected to follow.
“As January progresses, well-priced homes continue to attract interest.”
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