Sports
Men’s Preseason Top 25: Who is No. 1? Plus risers and fallers in final month to tip

It’s been six months since the Florida Gators won the national title and the runner-up Houston Cougars topped the first edition of these offseason top 25 rankings, with Purdue, Louisville, UConn and Michigan rounding out the top five. Now with just a couple of weeks left until the 2025-26 college basketball season tips off, only three of those teams retain a place among the top five.
Way-too-early rankings are considered something of a fool’s errand in the modern era of college basketball, given the rampant rebuilds and roster overhauls each offseason. But with big programs getting their business done earlier in the transfer portal cycle, and most non-first-rounders returning to college instead of leaving early for the NBA draft, many of the projected high-end rotations didn’t change much between April and October.
Still, it has been a long offseason, and we’re less than a month from the Nov. 3 tipoff — so it’s time for the final preseason top 25 rankings.
Is this the season Matt Painter and Purdue cut down the nets as first-time champs? There is a debate at No. 1, with Houston and Florida in the mix, but the Boilermakers get the nod. They bring back the Wooden Award favorite in Braden Smith, another All-American in Trey Kaufman-Renn, two more starters from a Sweet 16 team — and possess superior depth and experience from a season ago.
Previous ranking: 1
There are very few doubts about Purdue’s offensive potential — the Boilermakers were seventh nationally in offensive efficiency last season and bring back the bulk of that group. The key to their quest for a national championship, however, will come down to defense. They had the worst 2-point defense in the Big Ten last season, a stark drop-off from when Zach Edey was patrolling the paint. If Purdue can shore up its defense, Painter’s team is the title favorite.
Projected starting lineup
Braden Smith (15.8 PPG)
C.J. Cox (6.0 PPG)
Fletcher Loyer (13.8 PPG)
Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.1 PPG)
Oscar Cluff (17.6 PPG at South Dakota State)
Previous ranking: 2
Could Florida go back-to-back? After what Todd Golden did to revamp the backcourt in the offseason, it’s not out of the question. The Gators were already bringing back one of the nation’s elite frontcourts, with potential first-rounders Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh (an easy breakout candidate) leading the way — but then Golden went out and landed impact transfers Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee to start on the perimeter. There could be some growing pains early, but this starting five is as talented as it gets.
Projected starting lineup
Boogie Fland (13.5 PPG at Arkansas)
Xaivian Lee (16.9 PPG at Princeton)
Thomas Haugh (9.8 PPG)
Alex Condon (10.6 PPG)
Rueben Chinyelu (6.1 PPG)
Previous ranking: 3
The Cougars lost in heartbreaking fashion in last season’s title game, but three straight 1-seeds and four straight seasons of at least 32 wins point to yet another national championship-caliber team for Kelvin Sampson. Not only do three starters return from last season’s group, including projected first-rounders Milos Uzan and Joseph Tugler, but Houston also brings in one of the best recruiting classes in the country — complete with three top-25 recruits, two of whom could start from day one.
Projected starting lineup
Milos Uzan (11.4 PPG)
Emanuel Sharp (12.7 PPG)
Isiah Harwell (No. 14 in ESPN 100)
Joseph Tugler (5.5 PPG)
Chris Cenac Jr. (No. 6 in ESPN 100)
Previous ranking: 4
It was clear relatively early into last season that the Huskies weren’t quite at the level of the team that had just won back-to-back national championships, but Dan Hurley reloaded last spring to make sure they are back in the title conversation. Solo Ball and Alex Karaban are All-American candidates, and Tarris Reed Jr. showed flashes of being a dominant interior force last season. Transfers Silas Demary Jr. (Georgia) and Malachi Smith (Dayton) erase any point guard questions, and five-star recruit Braylon Mullins is an elite shotmaker.
Projected starting lineup
Silas Demary Jr. (13.5 PPG at Georgia)
Solo Ball (14.4 PPG)
Braylon Mullins (No. 17 in ESPN 100)
Alex Karaban (14.3 PPG)
Tarris Reed Jr. (9.6 PPG)
Previous ranking: 5
Rick Pitino guided St. John’s to its first outright Big East championship since 1985 last season and then went aggressively into the transfer portal to defend that title. Ian Jackson (North Carolina), Joson Sanon (Arizona State), Oziyah Sellers (Stanford), Bryce Hopkins (Providence), Dillon Mitchell (Cincinnati) and Dylan Darling (Idaho State) comprise one of the most elite transfer classes of all time. That’s all in addition to Zuby Ejiofor coming back, giving the Red Storm arguably the best returning big man in the country not named JT Toppin.
Projected starting lineup
Ian Jackson (11.9 PPG at North Carolina)
Joson Sanon (11.9 PPG at Arizona State)
Oziyah Sellers (13.7 PPG at Stanford)
Bryce Hopkins (15.5 PPG at Providence in 2023-24)
Zuby Ejiofor (14.7 PPG)
Previous ranking: 7
After guiding Louisville to a 19-win improvement in his first season at the helm, Pat Kelsey has loftier goals for Year 2. The Cardinals have one of the deepest and most explosive perimeter groups in America, with projected lottery pick Mikel Brown Jr. surrounded by transfers Ryan Conwell (Xavier), Isaac McKneely (Virginia) and Adrian Wooley (Kennesaw State). Kelsey also has a number of options up front, but international addition Sananda Fru is generating positive buzz.
Projected starting lineup
Mikel Brown Jr. (No. 8 in ESPN 100)
Isaac McKneely (14.4 PPG at Virginia)
Ryan Conwell (16.5 PPG at Xavier)
J’Vonne Hadley (12.2 PPG)
Sananda Fru (12.6 PPG for Loewen Braunschweig)
Previous ranking: 6
Few teams will possess the firepower that Kevin Young has at his disposal this season. At the top of the list is No. 1 recruit AJ Dybantsa, an incredibly gifted two-way wing who is in the conversation to be the No. 1 pick next June. He will be flanked by Richie Saunders, one of the best shooters in the country, and high-level Baylor transfer Robert Wright III. Do the Cougars have the defensive chops to win a title? Keep an eye on freshman Xavion Staton — his rim protection is drawing rave reviews early.
Projected starting lineup
Robert Wright III (11.5 PPG at Baylor)
Kennard Davis Jr. (16.3 PPG at Southern Illinois)
Richie Saunders (16.5 PPG)
AJ Dybantsa (No. 1 in ESPN 100)
Keba Keita (7.4 PPG)
Previous ranking: 8
Another coach who produced a remarkable turnaround in his first year at the helm, Dusty May took the Wolverines from eight to 27 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance between 2023-24 and 2024-25. Can he get back to the Final Four this season? The keys will be Elliot Cadeau at the point guard spot and how May utilizes his trio of frontcourt additions: Yaxel Lendeborg (UAB), Morez Johnson Jr. (Illinois) and Aday Mara (UCLA). Lendeborg was one of the best players in the portal and has a case to be a preseason All-American.
Projected starting lineup
Elliot Cadeau (9.4 PPG at North Carolina)
Roddy Gayle Jr. (9.8 PPG)
Nimari Burnett (9.4 PPG)
Yaxel Lendeborg (17.7 PPG at UAB)
Morez Johnson Jr. (7.0 PPG at Illinois)
Previous ranking: 9
Mark Pope won’t be short of depth this season, with a roster that looks capable of going 11 or 12 deep, minimum. All-SEC guard Otega Oweh leads the returnees, and Pitt transfer Jaland Lowe and projected lottery pick Jayden Quaintance (Arizona State) are the top newcomers. Quaintance’s availability is up in the air after he tore an ACL in February, but there are more than enough options to fill in the gaps until he returns, with positive offseason reports on big man Brandon Garrison. This team should also be much more effective defensively than it was last season.
Projected starting lineup
Jaland Lowe (16.8 PPG at Pitt)
Denzel Aberdeen (7.7 PPG at Florida)
Otega Oweh (16.2 PPG)
Mouhamed Dioubate (7.2 PPG at Alabama)
Brandon Garrison (5.9 PPG)
Previous ranking: 12
Falling short of a national championship last season will sting for Jon Scheyer, but he has replaced his five outgoing NBA draft picks — highlighted by No. 1 pick and Wooden Award winner Cooper Flagg — with another No. 1-ranked recruiting class and a few key returnees. Cameron Boozer isn’t Flagg, but Boozer is a lock to be one of the most productive freshmen in the country. Nikolas Khamenia and Dame Sarr will battle for a starting spot, and returnee Isaiah Evans is poised to break out. Point guard play from Caleb Foster could determine Duke’s ceiling.
Projected starting lineup
Caleb Foster (5.1 PPG)
Isaiah Evans (6.8 PPG)
Nikolas Khamenia (No. 15 in ESPN 100)
Cameron Boozer (No. 3 in ESPN 100)
Patrick Ngongba II (3.9 PPG)
Previous ranking: 10
Darrion Williams entering the transfer portal put a damper on Texas Tech’s offseason, but the Red Raiders should still have one of college basketball’s elite inside-outside duos in Christian Anderson and returning All-American JT Toppin. Over the second half of last season, Toppin was arguably the third-best player in the country behind Flagg and Walter Clayton Jr. Grant McCasland’s transfer haul — led by the versatile LeJuan Watts and shot-blocker Luke Bamgboye — will take on heavy minutes immediately.
Projected starting lineup
Christian Anderson (10.6 PPG)
Tyeree Bryan (10.4 PPG at Santa Clara)
LeJuan Watts (13.7 PPG at Washington State)
JT Toppin (18.2 PPG)
Luke Bamgboye (3.8 PPG at VCU)
Previous ranking: 11
The Razorbacks went through a few different phases in John Calipari’s first season, starting off 11-2 before losing their first five SEC games and then pulling it together late in the season with a Sweet 16 run. Four rotation players are back from that team, with Karter Knox ready to make the next step. Calipari also recruited two top-10 guards (Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas) and two big man transfers (Malique Ewin and Nick Pringle) with extensive high-major experience.
Projected starting lineup
Darius Acuff Jr. (No. 7 in ESPN 100)
D.J. Wagner (11.2 PPG)
Karter Knox (8.3 PPG)
Trevon Brazile (6.8 PPG)
Malique Ewin (14.2 PPG at Florida State)
Previous ranking: 13
Other than Duke, Arizona might be relying on freshmen more than any other team in the top 15. Tommy Lloyd could start two incoming recruits in Koa Peat and Brayden Burries, both of whom are physically ready for the college game and shouldn’t be unfamiliar with high-usage roles. Jaden Bradley will likely shoulder more offensive responsibility at the point guard spot. Things to monitor are shooting (freshman Dwayne Aristode will be key) and who starts at center (Tobe Awaka or Motiejus Krivas).
Projected starting lineup
Jaden Bradley (12.1 PPG)
Brayden Burries (No. 12 in ESPN 100)
Anthony Dell’Orso (7.2 PPG)
Koa Peat (No. 10 in ESPN 100)
Tobe Awaka (8.0 PPG)
Previous ranking: 15
Mick Cronin clearly needed more explosiveness in the backcourt last season, so he went into the portal and landed Donovan Dent, one of the best point guards in the country who should bring a completely different playmaking dimension to UCLA’s perimeter. Cronin should have plenty of offensive punch between Dent, Eric Dailey and Tyler Bilodeau. The key positional battle comes on the inside, where UCLA will have to hope for a resurgence from Michigan State transfer Xavier Booker, turn to the less-heralded Steven Jamerson II or go small with Bilodeau down low.
Projected starting lineup
Donovan Dent (20.4 PPG at New Mexico)
Skyy Clark (8.5 PPG)
Eric Dailey (11.4 PPG)
Tyler Bilodeau (13.5 PPG)
Steven Jamerson II (10.0 PPG at San Diego)
Previous ranking: 18
Arguably the biggest preseason injury news came out of Ames, with Tamin Lipsey — one of the elite two-way point guards in the country — suffering a sprained right MCL in practice. His timeline puts his return around the season opener. Lipsey is one of three returning starters, along with Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson. That continuity, combined with what should be one of the best defenses in the country for another season, keeps Iowa State in the top 20. Keep an eye on freshman Jamarion Batemon, too.
Projected starting lineup
Tamin Lipsey (10.6 PPG)
Jamarion Batemon (No. 77 in ESPN 100)
Milan Momcilovic (11.5 PPG)
Joshua Jefferson (13.0 PPG)
Blake Buchanan (5.7 PPG at Virginia)
Previous ranking: 16
There’s going to be a noticeable Balkan influence on the Illini this season, with Brad Underwood likely to start up to four players from the region, and a fifth coming off the bench. Kylan Boswell and Tomislav Ivisic return as starters, and the Illini’s biggest addition from the portal is former California wing Andrej Stojakovic. Mihailo Petrovic will likely line up alongside Boswell in the backcourt, but Underwood will have to decide between Zvonimir Ivisic, David Mirkovic and Ben Humrichous at the power forward spot.
Projected starting lineup
Mihailo Petrovic (14.3 PPG for Mega Superbet)
Kylan Boswell (12.3 PPG)
Andrej Stojakovic (17.9 PPG at California)
Zvonimir Ivisic (8.5 PPG at Arkansas)
Tomislav Ivisic (13.0 PPG)
Previous ranking: 14
Truthfully, we didn’t know how far to drop Auburn after Bruce Pearl’s sudden retirement last month. The team remained intact, and his son Steven Pearl is expected to lean on what should be a very talented top end of the roster. Moreover, he coached the defense while Mike Burgomaster was the offensive coordinator, so the system should remain fairly similar. Tahaad Pettiford is an elite playmaker who will be surrounded by three high-major transfers and a potential NBA talent on the wing in Elyjah Freeman.
Projected starting lineup
Tahaad Pettiford (11.7 PPG)
Kevin Overton (7.8 PPG at Texas Tech)
Elyjah Freeman (19.3 PPG at D-II Lincoln Memorial)
Keyshawn Hall (18.8 PPG at UCF)
KeShawn Murphy (11.7 PPG at Mississippi State)
Previous ranking: 23
Rick Barnes loses five of his top six scorers from last season, but he does bring in two of the country’s most impactful newcomers: Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie and top-five recruit Nate Ament. Gillespie is an incredibly efficient point guard, and Ament is an ubertalented lottery pick on the wing. Returnees Felix Okpara and Cade Phillips plus Vanderbilt transfer Jaylen Carey are solid up front. Now the question is whether Barnes and the Vols produce a top-five defense for the sixth straight season.
Projected starting lineup
Ja’Kobi Gillespie (14.7 PPG at Maryland)
Amaree Abram (12.3 PPG at Louisiana Tech)
Nate Ament (No. 4 in ESPN 100)
Cade Phillips (4.6 PPG)
Felix Okpara (7.1 PPG)
Previous ranking: 17
Alabama already suffered an injury issue in the preseason, with Miami transfer Jalil Bethea undergoing surgery on his left foot. Could Bethea be replaced in the lineup by Latrell Wrightsell, who missed most of last season with a ruptured Achilles? The bright spot for this team should be the backcourt duo of Labaron Philon Jr., a potential top-20 pick, and Aden Holloway. Nate Oats will hope for a massive step forward from Aiden Sherrell, and transfers Taylor Bol Bowen and Noah Williamson will need to play right away.
Projected starting lineup
Labaron Philon Jr. (10.6 PPG)
Aden Holloway (11.4 PPG)
Latrell Wrightsell (11.5 PPG)
Taylor Bol Bowen (8.0 PPG at Florida State)
Aiden Sherrell (3.4 PPG)
Previous ranking: 19
After receiving a top-five seed and advancing out of the first weekend of every NCAA tournament since 2014, Mark Few and the Zags are coming off a season in which they finished three games behind Saint Mary’s in the WCC standings and were bounced in the second round of the tournament. How will Gonzaga bounce back? It starts with Graham Ike and Braden Huff, one of the best interior duos in the country. The two things that determine this team’s ceiling could be how quickly Spanish guard Mario Saint-Supery makes an impact and whether Grand Canyon transfer Tyon Grant-Foster receives a waiver.
Projected starting lineup
Mario Saint-Supery (8.3 PPG for BAXI Manresa)
Adam Miller (9.8 PPG at Arizona State)
Tyon Grant-Foster (14.8 PPG at Grand Canyon)
Braden Huff (11.0 PPG)
Graham Ike (17.3 PPG)
Previous ranking: 20
It will be interesting to see whether Wisconsin’s changes last season — playing far more up-tempo and efficient offense with more 3s — carry over without All-American John Tonje in town. All-Big Ten guard John Blackwell will help pick up some of the slack, but Greg Gard will lean heavily on three transfers: Nick Boyd (San Diego State), Andrew Rohde (Virginia) and Austin Rapp (Portland). Nolan Winter is an intriguing breakout candidate in his junior season.
Projected starting lineup
Nick Boyd (13.4 PPG at San Diego State)
Andrew Rohde (9.3 PPG at Virginia)
John Blackwell (15.8 PPG)
Austin Rapp (13.8 PPG at Portland)
Nolan Winter (9.4 PPG)
Previous ranking: 21
After disappointing as the nation’s preseason No. 1 team in back-to-back seasons, Kansas won’t find itself anywhere near the top of the polls entering this campaign. The Jayhawks haven’t made it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2022, with Bill Self having his two worst Big 12 campaigns in each of the past two seasons. But potential No. 1 pick Darryn Peterson brings plenty of optimism — he’s a truly exceptional offensive player. Flory Bidunga anchors the interior, and Self has a slew of options on the wing. Keep an eye on reclassified recruit Kohl Rosario.
Projected starting lineup
Darryn Peterson (No. 2 in ESPN 100)
Melvin Council Jr. (14.6 PPG at St. Bonaventure)
Jayden Dawson (13.9 PPG at Loyola Chicago)
Tre White (10.5 PPG at Illinois)
Flory Bidunga (5.9 PPG)
Previous ranking: 22
The post-Ryan Kalkbrenner era begins in Omaha, after the Bluejays won 119 games — including nine NCAA tournament contests — over the dominant big man’s five years. Out the door also went Steven Ashworth and Jamiya Neal. Greg McDermott was busy in the offseason, announcing Alan Huss as his coach-in-waiting and adding six transfers, headlined by the Iowa duo of Josh Dix and Owen Freeman. We’re expecting major strides from 6-foot-10 shooter Jackson McAndrew, who finished the season with three straight games of double-figure scoring.
Projected starting lineup
Blake Harper (19.5 PPG at Howard)
Josh Dix (14.4 PPG at Iowa)
Jackson McAndrew (7.8 PPG)
Jasen Green (4.9 PPG)
Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG at Iowa)
Previous ranking: 24
If there is going to be a Pat Kelsey or Dusty May — a first-year head coach who finds immediate success — in this season’s crop of new head coaches, our money is on Will Wade and the Wolfpack. Wade is no stranger to stockpiling talent and has already shown he can win at the high-major level, leading LSU to an SEC title in 2019. He has brought in nine transfers, headlined by All-American candidate Darrion Williams from Texas Tech and Michigan State point guard Tre Holloman. Incoming freshman Matt Able is a potential one-and-done candidate.
Projected starting lineup
Tre Holloman (9.1 PPG at Michigan State)
Matt Able (No. 24 in ESPN 100)
Quadir Copeland (9.2 PPG at McNeese)
Darrion Williams (15.1 PPG at Texas Tech)
Ven-Allen Lubin (8.7 PPG at North Carolina)
Previous ranking: 25
It’s a potentially pivotal season for Hubert Davis in Chapel Hill — and there are certainly some personnel questions entering the campaign. But there is also a collection of intriguing talent, from top-five recruit Caleb Wilson and Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar up front to international pickup Luka Bogavac and returnee Seth Trimble on the wing. The point guard situation will have to be resolved. Colorado State transfer Kyan Evans has experience, but freshman Derek Dixon has sparked interest.
Projected starting lineup
Kyan Evans (10.6 PPG at Colorado State)
Seth Trimble (11.6 PPG)
Luka Bogavac (14.9 PPG for SC Derby)
Caleb Wilson (No. 5 in ESPN 100)
Henri Veesaar (9.4 PPG at Arizona)
Next in line
San Diego State Aztecs
Ohio State Buckeyes
Texas Longhorns
Oregon Ducks
Michigan State Spartans
Sports
Cowboys’ Jerry Jones on middle finger incident: ‘That was unfortunate’

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Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones lamented his obscene gesture toward fans as he watched his team dominate the New York Jets on the road Sunday afternoon.
Jones was seen in a video posted to social media flipping the middle finger to fans below him. The move sparked concerns over whether he could be fined for his action as other current and former owners around the league have been hit in the wallet for similar acts.
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Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones looks on before the game against the Green Bay Packers at AT&T Stadium on Sept. 28, 2025. (Jerome Miron/Imagn Images)
On Tuesday, Jones appeared in his usual spot on 105.3 The Fan and addressed the incident.
“That was unfortunate,” he said, via The Athletic. “There was a swarm of Cowboys fans out front. It was right after we made our last touchdown. I put up the wrong show of hand. The intention was thumbs up.”
He had plenty to celebrate on Sunday as the team won 37-22.
Dak Prescott had four touchdown passes in the win – two of which went to tight end Jake Ferguson. He also found George Pickens and Javonte Williams one time each.
2025 NFL DPOY ODDS: HUTCHINSON, PARSONS FAVORED; BONNITO LEAPS

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones observe the playing of the national anthem at training camp opening ceremonies at the River Ridge Fields on July 26, 2025. (Kirby Lee/Imagn Images)
“I think we’re spoiled,” Dallas head coach Brian Schottenheimer said of Prescott. “I think he’s one of the best players in the league. He’s certainly one of the best leaders and teammates I’ve ever been around. Guys believe in him and he’s playing with a ton of confidence right now.”
Prescott heard “MVP” chants from fans during the game.
“I saw this coming just on the simple fact this team knows how confident we are, what we’re capable of doing,” he said of the win. “We knew it was important to get the taste of last week out of our mouth and out of our mind.”

Jerry Jones arrives at the premiere of “America’s Team: The Gambler and His Cowboys” on Monday, Aug. 11, 2025, at The Egyptian Theatre in Los Angeles. (Richard Shotwell/Invision/A)
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Dallas moved to 2-2-1 with the win.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Sports
Breaking down Aaron Judge’s early playoff performance: A productive start or another October disappointment?

In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Judge entered the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered history of October results compared with his stellar regular-season résumé.
For his career, Judge’s OPS is 250 points lower in the postseason than in the regular season (the average regular-season-to-playoff OPS dropoff for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point nearly every October.
After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason run, Judge is hitting objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he isn’t hitting for much power, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 plate appearances, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Division Series on the brink of elimination.
As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we dug deep into each of Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.
How is Judge being pitched in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why isn’t he hitting for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his postseason go from here — if the Yankees can stick around long enough for him to find his home run stroke?
How left-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. lefties in playoff career: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR
Judge vs. lefties this postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR
Each pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that lefties are following when attacking Judge this month.
The game plan goes something like this: throw hard stuff (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix in softer stuff to keep him honest, locating those pitches down and on the corners — where he is least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside of the zone, not toward the middle. Don’t be afraid to nibble around the outside of the zone and live to fight another day.
That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 6-foot-7 slugger whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against good stuff.
It’s telling that the two softer-throwing lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Bruihl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed off the plate inside, one missing so far inside that it hit Judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, likely because of their better fastballs.
How right-handed pitchers are approaching Judge
Judge vs. righties in playoff career: 241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR
Judge vs. righties this postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR
Judge has faced eight different righties this postseason, and those pitchers vary vastly in their pitch mix and the quality of their stuff, but right-handed pitchers seem to be using a decision tree to craft their game plan against him.
If the righty’s top offspeed pitch is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) then he is throwing that as often as he can while locating it down and away — and mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning over the plate. Here’s a look at Judge vs. breaking balls only.
If the righty’s top secondary pitch is a splitter — such as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the first two games of the ALDS — then he is mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.
But no matter their style, one common goal for all of these pitchers is not to make a mistake over the plate!
How does Judge’s regular-season history factor into this plan?
Though Judge’s October struggles have become a narrative over his career, any team setting up its pitching strategy for a series will game plan for the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treating him like the player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.
And that starts with keeping the ball away from where Judge can do the most damage.
During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the middle-middle zone — or, in more general speak, right down the middle.
Against those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both figures were second best in baseball.
This is where Judge ranked, among all qualified hitters in MLB this season, measured by xwOBA:
-
Second best vs. middle-middle pitches
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Best vs. pitches in the heart of the zone (a larger part of the strike zone than middle-middle)
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Best per pitch vs. fastballs, second in overall value
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Best per pitch and overall vs. sinkers
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Best per pitch and overall vs. cutters
Imagine getting this scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw him anything down the middle, either.
How Judge is handling pitches he should crush
Now for the twist: Judge has faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the middle-middle zone (one pitch every three plate appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).
So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled off four and whiffed at another — and took two middle-middle pitches for strikes.
This isn’t a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means one home run on a center-cut ball would poke a hole in it, but in watching all of his playoff at-bats, I made too many of this sort of note: “target was [zone direction] corner, missed target to the middle of the zone, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher].”
So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost on small samples. Judge is getting pitched roughly how he was in the regular season (actually even a bit more hitter-friendly), but he hasn’t replicated his regular-season damage, especially when it comes to punishing mistakes thrown down the middle. Judge has performed basically the same (chase rate, xwOBA, etc.) as the regular season against noncenter-cut pitches, so not taking advantage of these mistakes is accounting for his dip in power in the playoffs this year.
Over 162 games, anyone putting up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it’s all coming from singles and a few doubles — but the heat has been turned up with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense needs to deliver, with Judge at the heart of it. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or he is at risk of having another October disappointment added to his résumé.
Sports
Should Arsenal’s penalty have been overturned? Plus, Man United’s spot-kick escape

Video Assistant Referee causes controversy every week in the Premier League, but how are decisions made, and are they correct?
After each weekend we take a look at the major incidents to examine and explain the process both in terms of VAR protocol and the Laws of the Game.
In this week’s VAR Review: Should Arsenal‘s penalty against West Ham United have been canceled? What happened with Sunderland‘s overturned spot kick at Manchester United? And why didn’t Alexander Isak win a penalty for Liverpool at Chelsea?
Possible penalty overturn: Position of foul by Diouf on Timber
What happened: Arsenal were awarded a penalty in the 67th minute when Jurriën Timber raced onto a pass and was brought down on the edge of the area by El Hadji Malick Diouf. Referee John Brooks pointed to the spot, and it was checked by the VAR, Michael Oliver.
VAR decision: Penalty stands, scored by Bukayo Saka.
VAR review: There’s no doubt this was a foul by Diouf, who clambered over the back of the Arsenal player. The query was about where it took place, with both players falling to the ground inside the area.
The referee and the VAR are looking for the point of contact that causes the foul. So it is possible for contact to begin outside the area and the foul to happen inside. This isn’t a foul continuing into the area, it’s the foul itself happening within it. It’s different than holding, which is the only offense that can start outside the box, continue into it, and be a penalty.
In December 2020, Southampton were awarded a VAR penalty against Brighton & Hove Albion when there was initial contact between Solly March and Kyle Walker-Peters outside the area, but the foul was judged to have taken place inside (watch here).
So in Saturday’s case, the VAR agreed that the first contact between Diouf and Timber outside the box wasn’t a foul, and it came on the line or inside.
Verdict: This would be considered a factual overturn, so the VAR alone would make the call and the referee wouldn’t be sent to the monitor. Yet other than situations determined by semi-automated offside technology, there’s no decision which is truly factual. The VAR is still looking at TV evidence and making a subjective judgement: Where did the foul take place? Was it handball by the goal scorer? Did the ball go out of play? The fact that different VARs could reach opposing judgements makes it subjective.
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There’s a very strong argument that Diouf does foul Timber before the two players reach the box. The West Ham player is starting to climb over his opponent before they get to the line, and it really should have been a free kick … but it’s tight.
Subjective or objective? Oliver opted to leave the decision on the field, but would he have advised a penalty if a free kick had been given? It’s highly unlikely.
Possible goal: Offside check on Saka
What happened: Saka thought he had fired Arsenal into the lead in the 24th minute when he ran onto a pass over the top by Declan Rice. After the ball ended up in the net, the assistant referee raised the offside flag and the goal was disallowed.
VAR decision: No goal.
VAR review: As the ball was floated into the area, it bounced off the head of Diouf and dropped perfectly for Saka.
There was no question about Saka’s offside position — but did he commit an offside offence? Or should the offside phase have been canceled by the touch off Diouf?
Verdict: There are two considerations for the VAR. First, did Diouf make a “deliberate play” (meaning controlled) that would reset Saka’s offside position? As the ball simply landed on the West Ham player’s head, rather than him actually attempting to head it, this wasn’t a “deliberate play,” so Saka remains offside
Even if it was a “deliberate play,” Saka is so close to the defender that it would have been valid to consider whether the Arsenal forward had impacted or influenced him into playing the ball, so it’s highly unlikely the VAR would have stepped in.
Correct on-field decision.
Possible penalty: Handball by Mavropanos
What happened: Saka helped the ball into the area at the start of the second half, and it touched the arm of West Ham defender Konstantinos Mavropanos. Play continued, but was there a case for a penalty?
VAR decision: No penalty.
VAR review: The VAR determined that this was just part of Mavropanos’ running action, and the ball inadvertently touched his arm rather than the defender making his body unnaturally bigger, or making any deliberate action.
Verdict: The Premier League’s more-lenient application of the handball law gives far more consideration for how a player is naturally moving. There’s a chance this would be given as a spot kick in one of the other major European leagues, but it won’t be sent to review in England.
Possible penalty overturn: Challenge by Sesko on Hume
What happened: Sunderland delivered a long throw into the area in first-half stoppage time. As Trai Hume looked to win the ball, he went to ground under a high-foot challenge from Man United’s Benjamin Sesko. Referee Stuart Attwell allowed play to continue, and when the ball went out of play for a corner, the assistant advised that a penalty should be awarded. It was checked by the VAR, Neil Davies.
VAR decision: Penalty canceled.
VAR review: Last week we discussed how contact was required for a penalty kick to be awarded for a high boot. Chelsea‘s Malo Gusto escaped after the VAR determined he couldn’t be certain that he touched Yankuba Minteh. This was that situation in reverse.
Sesko tried to get to the ball ahead of Hume, and raised a boot — with the video evidence clear that there was no contact.
Verdict: It was a confusing situation at first, because of the delay between the incident and the penalty being awarded, and it may incorrectly have appeared that the VAR was advising a spot kick. But this was undoubtedly a correct intervention to cancel the penalty.
Usually, an overturned spot kick results in a restart with a dropped ball to the goalkeeper, because it has stayed in play. But when the ball has very clearly gone out of play before a penalty is given, the game restarts normally — in this case with a corner to Sunderland.
There’s an argument that the restart should have been an indirect free kick to Sunderland inside the area, as that’s how playing in a dangerous manner (no contact) should be dealt with. But this is never given in favor of the attacking team in the box.
Possible penalty: Challenge by Lammens and Fernandes on Traoré
What happened: Bertrand Traoré was booked for simulation in the 57th minute when he went to ground when trying to get past goalkeeper Senne Lammens and midfielder Bruno Fernandes on the edge of the box.
VAR decision: No penalty.
VAR review: There was glancing contact between Fernandes and Traoré, which took place just outside the area so the VAR wouldn’t be able to get involved.
The VAR could have considered a red card against Fernandes for denying an obvious goal-scoring opportunity, as Traore could have got to the ball inside the area with Lammens out of the game. However, there was enough doubt that there was enough in the contact to be a foul, and with Diogo Dalot mopping up the loose ball, it couldn’t be certain the Sunderland player would take control.
Verdict: While Traoré went down a little theatrically, he was probably unfortunate to pick up a yellow card, as he was nudged by the United captain as he tried to get past him.
Possible penalty: Challenge by Szoboszlai on Garnacho
What happened: Alejandro Garnacho moved into the penalty area in the 39th minute and went to ground under pressure from Dominik Szoboszlai. The Chelsea winger looked at Anthony Taylor asking for a penalty, but the referee waved away the claims. It was looked at by the VAR, Craig Pawson.
VAR decision: No penalty.
VAR review: There was a hand on the back of Garnacho, but the Argentina international went to ground too easily when he felt that contact.
Verdict: Definitely not enough in this for the VAR to get involved.
Possible penalty: Challenge by James on Isak
What happened: Alexander Isak ran onto a ball through the center in the 73rd minute and went down after being hit in the head by a flailing arm from Reece James. No penalty was awarded, so the VAR had a look.
VAR decision: No penalty.
VAR review: While Isak was caught in the face, this only came after the striker had pulled James back by his shirt.
Verdict: Arne Slot was annoyed by this decision, because Liverpool had conceded a penalty at Galatasaray in the Champions League on Tuesday when Szoboszlai caught Baris Alper Yilmaz in the face inside the area.
But there are two important differences: as ever, the crucial one being that the Galatasaray penalty was given by the on-field referee, and not through VAR. Also, there wasn’t any contact by Yilmaz on Szoboszlai that could be judged to have led to the touch on the head.
That’s not to say the Galatasaray penalty wasn’t exceptionally soft, but it doesn’t mean James should also be penalized, and definitely not through a VAR intervention.
Possible penalty: Challenge by Diop on Evanilson
What happened: James Hill lofted a ball into the area in the 54th minute, with Evanilson going to ground under a challenge from Issa Diop. Referee Simon Hooper wasn’t interested in the penalty appeals, so it was checked by the VAR, John Brooks.
VAR decision: No penalty.
VAR review: The VAR decided that while there was contact by Diop on the heel of Evanilson, it was accidental, so it didn’t reach the threshold for an intervention.
Verdict: Cast your mind back to the start of last season and the VAR penalty awarded to Fulham against Nottingham Forest, when Murillo stood on the heal of Andreas Pereira with the ball in the vicinity. The VAR? John Brooks.
There’s no doubt that the contact from Diop prevented Evanilson from being able to play the ball, and using Pereira as precedent, there’s a clear case for a VAR penalty. Consistency would say the same VAR might reach the same conclusion in both incidents.
The Premier League’s Key Match Incidents Panel supported the Pereira VAR intervention 5-0, though it did also note there was some contact on the attacker’s back. This perhaps isn’t quite as clear, but Diop was fortunate.
Possible red card: Violent conduct by Flemming on Buendía
What happened: Zian Flemming took control of the ball in the third minute of stoppage time, holding off Emiliano Buendía before then having his progress blocked. Buendía went down holding his face but referee Andrew Kitchen, in his third Premier League game, allowed play to continue. It was checked by the VAR, Michael Oliver, for a possible red card.
VAR decision: No red card.
VAR review: Flemming had his arm raised when Buendía came in from his blind side, with the Burnley player positioned to protect the space rather than throwing an elbow.
Verdict: This should at least have been a free kick to Aston Villa, and there’s an argument it should have been a yellow card. But there was no force or brutality in the way Flemming tried to hold off the Aston Villa player, and no deliberate act.
Two seasons ago, Fulham‘s João Palhinha escaped a red card after he caught Brighton’s Pascal Groß on the head with an arm when trying to keep possession. In that case, there was a clear movement into the opponent, with the KMI Panel voting 3-2 that it was a missed VAR intervention for a red card.
The Flemming incident doesn’t fall into the same category, so this won’t be seen as an error.
Possible penalty: Morato challenge on Burn
What happened: Newcastle United won a corner in the 54th minute; as it was delivered into the box, Dan Burn went down under pressure from Morato. Referee Peter Bankes allowed play to continue, and VAR Chris Kavanagh checked it out.
VAR decision: No penalty.
VAR review: Initially the two players were involved in mutual holding before Burn broke free. Morato didn’t seem to be interested in challenging for the ball, only stopping Burn from doing so. But the referee decided there wasn’t enough in it to give a penalty.
Verdict: Judging when holding goes from normal football contact to an offense is always a case of weighing up a variety of factors. Clear non-footballing actions, like dragging an opponent down by his shirt, are the only obvious examples.
There was a strong case for a penalty for a holding offense after Burn tried to get away from Morato, who can consider himself very fortunate.
The closest example is probably West Ham’s Mateus Fernandes holding back Tottenham Hotspur‘s Micky van de Ven last month. That wasn’t given as a spot kick, which the KMI Panel supported on a split 3-2 vote for both on-field and VAR judgements. But due to the non-footballing nature of the challenge, this could go down as a missed intervention.
Possible red card: Violent conduct by Uche on Tarkowski
What happened: The game was deep into added time when there was a VAR check for a possible punch by Christantus Uche on James Tarkowski. Should there have been a red card?
VAR decision: No red card.
VAR review: Quite a strange situation, because while Uche did appear to take a jab at Tarkowski, it seemed very light, and it was unclear whether there was contact. There doesn’t have to be contact for violent conduct, as “strikes or attempts to strike” is covered within the laws, but there does still need to be a level of brutality involved.
Verdict: Would there have been a different outcome had Tarkowski fallen to the ground? Possibly, but the fact that the Everton player barely had any reaction should be a decent indicator that there was very little in this.
A bizarre move by Uche, but there was not enough in it for violent conduct.
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