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Australia’s consumer sentiment hits six-month low amid inflation fears

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Australia’s consumer sentiment hits six-month low amid inflation fears



Australia’s consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in six months, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index declining 3.5 per cent to 92.1 in October from 95.4 in September. Confidence has dropped 6.5 per cent over the past two months.

The October index read is now at firmly pessimistic levels, albeit still well above the very weak reads seen during the extended ‘cost-of-living’ crisis, according to Westpac.

Australia’s consumer sentiment fell to a six-month low, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Index dropping 3.5 per cent to 92.1 in October.
Inflation concerns and uncertainty over interest rates have dampened optimism, particularly regarding family finances, which fell nearly 10 per cent.
Despite weaker confidence, job security fears remain limited.

“Consumers appear to have been rattled by recent updates on inflation. ‘Partial’ measures released over the last month suggest annual inflation has lifted back towards the top of the RBA’s 2–3 per cent target range,” said Matthew Hassan, head of Australian macro-forecasting at Westpac in an article titled, ‘Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Bulletin’.

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to hold rates steady in September provided some relief, sentiment remained firmly pessimistic.

The weakening was most pronounced in expectations for family finances, with the ‘family finances, next 12 months’ sub-index plunging nearly 10 per cent to 97.1—its lowest in over a year. Current assessments also fell 4.8 per cent to 82.1, suggesting that the boost from previous rate and tax cuts may be fading.

Short-term economic outlook expectations slipped 2.5 per cent to 89.9, while longer-term views edged up 1.4 per cent to 94. Meanwhile, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index dipped 1.1 per cent to 97.2, reflecting continued caution in consumer spending ahead of the holiday season.

Despite weaker confidence, consumers remain largely unconcerned about job security. The Unemployment Expectations Index dropped 2.9 per cent to 127.6. That takes the index slightly below its long-run average but still broadly consistent with a stable labour market.

“The Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Board (MPB) next meets on November 3–4. With inflation within the target range and monetary policy still a little on the restrictive side, the next rate move can reasonably be expected to be down. However, the MPB remains cautious, especially after the stronger than expected result for the August CPI indicator, and it will be sensitive to the flow of data from here. A cash rate cut in November is far from assured, though neither is it off the table,” added Hassan. “And the longer the MPB delays further cuts, the more likely it is that it will end up cutting by more than it currently envisages.”

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Global energy growth slows to 1.3% in 2025: Report

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Global energy growth slows to 1.3% in 2025: Report



Global energy demand growth moderated to 1.3 per cent in 2025 amid a complex economic and geopolitical backdrop, while electricity consumption continued to expand strongly, according to the latest Global Energy Review by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The report highlighted that although overall energy demand growth slowed compared with 2024 and remained slightly below the previous decade’s average, electricity demand rose by around 3 per cent, driven by increased usage across buildings, industry, electric vehicles, and data centres.

Global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3 per cent in 2025, while electricity demand rose around 3 per cent, driven by EVs, industry, and data centres, according to IEA.
Solar PV led supply growth for the first time.
Oil demand grew modestly, and coal growth slowed.
CO2 emissions rose slightly.
Renewables and nuclear expansion highlighted an accelerating shift towards cleaner energy systems.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) emerged as the largest contributor to global energy supply growth for the first time, accounting for over 25 per cent of the increase. Natural gas followed with a 17 per cent share, while renewables and nuclear together met nearly 60 per cent of additional demand.

Global oil demand rose modestly by 0.7 per cent, reflecting the continued expansion of electric vehicles, with sales surpassing 20 million units in 2025. Coal demand growth slowed overall, with declines in China offset by increases in the United States due to high natural gas prices.

“Global energy demand continued to increase in 2025 against a complex economic and geopolitical backdrop, with one trend unmistakeable: the expanding electrification of economies,” said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director.

He added that electricity consumption was growing much faster than overall energy demand, with one energy source outpacing all others. He noted that solar PV accounted for over a quarter of global energy demand growth for the first time, followed by natural gas, and added that countries prioritising resilience and diversification would be better placed to manage volatility and ensure secure, affordable energy.

Regional trends varied significantly. Energy demand growth in the United States rose sharply, supported by industrial activity, data centre expansion, and colder weather, while China’s growth slowed to 1.7 per cent due to rising renewable adoption and improved efficiency.

Global energy-related CO2 emissions increased marginally by around 0.4 per cent. Emissions declined in China and remained flat in India, aided by renewable deployment and favourable weather conditions, while advanced economies recorded higher emissions growth due to colder winter conditions.

In the power sector, solar PV generation surged by a record 600 terawatt-hours, marking the largest annual increase for any electricity generation technology. Battery storage emerged as the fastest-growing segment, with around 110 gigawatts of new capacity added, while nuclear energy also saw renewed momentum with over 12 gigawatts of new reactors under construction.

The IEA noted that cumulative deployment of low-emissions technologies since 2019 now offsets fossil fuel consumption equivalent to the entire energy demand of Latin America, underscoring the accelerating transition towards cleaner energy systems.

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War-linked energy shock pushing inflation higher in Europe: IMF expert

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War-linked energy shock pushing inflation higher in Europe: IMF expert



The energy shock that has hit Europe due to the Middle East conflict, though smaller than in 2022, is weighing on growth and pushing inflation higher, an expert at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently cautioned.

In a blog post, Alfred Kammer, director of the IMF’s European department, said his organisation sees growth slowing down in the continent. Initial data point already to weaker private investment and consumption.

The energy shock that has hit Europe due to the Middle East conflict, though smaller than in 2022, is weighing on growth and pushing inflation higher, an IMF expert recently cautioned.
IMF sees growth slowing down in the continent.
Initial data point already to weaker private investment and consumption.
Central banks must remain laser focused on keeping inflation expectations anchored, he wrote.

The outlook for euro area growth is projected at just 1.1 per cent in 2026, for the European Union it is 1.3 per cent; and this forecast comes with a high degree of uncertainty.

In a more severe scenario as described in the World Economic Outlook—a persistent supply shock compounded by tightening financial conditions—the EU could come close to recession with inflation approaching 5 per cent. No European country is spared, Kammer observed.

Policymakers face intense pressure—to act fast, visibly and for all, which results in policies that have more long-term downsides than short-term benefits, he wrote.

Targeted support is much more effective. Europe’s response to this shock should be shaped by two imperatives, he suggested. First, robust macroeconomic policy that is fit for a world with unpredictable and frequent shocks, and second, resilience built without wasting fiscal resources or getting in the way of markets.

The first imperative involves getting monetary and fiscal policy right. Central banks must remain laser focused on keeping inflation expectations anchored, the IMF expert wrote.

In the euro area, where inflation is close to target and medium-term expectations are broadly anchored, the European Central Bank has some scope to wait and observe the shock evolve before acting. IMF now expects a cumulative 50 basis point increase in the policy rate by the end of this year, maintaining a broadly neutral monetary stance in light of higher near-term inflation expectations, Kammer noted.

A rise in core inflation or increasing medium-term expectations would warrant a more restrictive stance, he wrote.

“Europe must reform under pressure. The current shock is not an argument for delay. It is all the more reason to push forward the reform agenda,” Kammer added.

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India, US to resume BTA talks today

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India, US to resume BTA talks today



India and the United States will today resume talks on the first phase of their bilateral trade agreement (BTA) in Washington, DC.

The text of the agreement was released on February 7.

India and the US will today resume talks on the first phase of their bilateral trade agreement in Washington, DC.
The three-day talks will discuss the situation that has evolved under the changed US tariff regime.
The two unilateral probes launched by the USTR against India may also be discussed at the meeting.
Darpan Jain, additional secretary in the department of commerce, is leading the Indian team.

Darpan Jain, additional secretary in the department of commerce, is leading the Indian team.

The three-day talks will discuss the situation that has evolved under the changed US tariff regime, according to Indian media reports.

Following the US Supreme Court decision against the sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on several countries, the US administration imposed a 10-per cent tariff on all countries beginning February 24 for 150 days.

This led to a meeting between chief negotiators of both sides scheduled in February getting postponed to this month.

The two unilateral investigations launched by the US Trade Representative (USTR) against India may also be discussed at the meeting. India has rejected allegations made by the USTR in these two probes under its Section 301 of Trade Law and has called for termination of the probes as the initiation notice has failed to provide cogent rationale to substantiate the claims.

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