Business
Experts reveal which tax increase will have ‘least damaging’ impact
The government is under pressure to raise revenues and balance the books ahead of November’s autumn Budget statement.
And new economic analysis has revealed which tax rise will be the better option for Chancellor Rachel Reeves to implement for the economy.
Income tax and VAT were compared.
Raising VAT could push down harder on people’s real incomes, while hiking income tax will be the “least damaging” option.
Analysis carried out by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) suggests that it would be harmful for the Chancellor to find other ways to raise tax revenue beyond the “main” UK taxes.
The economic think tank analysed the economic impact of raising income tax, corporation tax and value added tax (VAT).
Of the three, NIESR said raising VAT would have the biggest negative impact on the UK economy by lowering real personal disposable income (RPDI) by nearly 3 per cent and real gross domestic product (GDP) by nearly 1 per cent in the first year of the tax being applied.
A higher rate of VAT would also push up inflation more than the other levers because of the impact it would have on prices in shops.
Raising corporation tax – which is charged on the profits made by businesses – would have a smaller short-term impact but drag on the economy in the long run by reducing investment, according to the analysis.
On the other hand, hiking income tax would have the lowest impact, bringing down GDP by about 0.05 per cent in the first year after the tax is applied.
The scenarios in NIESR’s analysis are based on the assumption that the government aims to raise total net annual revenue by £30 billion by 2029-30.
This is how much Ms Reeves needs to raise to fill an estimated black hole in the public finances.
NIESR said the “least bad” option therefore was for the Chancellor to increase income tax at her next Budget.
The think tank acknowledged that doing so would mean the Labour government breaks its manifesto pledge not to raise taxes on “working people” – which it said was now widely interpreted to mean income tax, VAT, employee national insurance contributions, and corporation tax.
“We would argue that they could find other ways to raise tax revenue but doing so would be much more distortive, harming the economy in the longer run,” the report’s authors wrote.
Ed Cornforth, NIESR economist and main author of the analysis, said: “Our analysis clearly shows that a rise in income tax is the Chancellor’s least damaging, most reliable option for putting the economy on a sustainable, secure footing.
“VAT would put pressure on prices, an undesirable option given current inflation expectations, and additional business taxes would harm investment incentives, at a time when employer NICs have already dampened business confidence.
“Although it is politically unsavoury, avoiding raising income tax will force the Chancellor’s hand into worse options – tinkering around the edges simply won’t shift the dial.”
Natalie ShermanBusiness reporter
Getty ImagesPresident Donald Trump has threatened to pull out of an expected meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, signalling a flare-up in trade tensions between the two economic giants that sent shares in the US tumbling.
In a post on social media, Trump hit back at Beijing’s move earlier this week to tighten its rules for exports of rare earths, accusing China of “becoming very hostile” and trying to hold the world “captive”.
He said he saw “no reason” to meet with President Xi later this month, and later on Friday threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods as well as export controls on “critical software”.
The new measures against China will take effect on 1 November, Trump said.
Financial markets dropped in the wake of Trump’s remarks, with the S&P 500 closing down 2.7%, its steepest fall since April.
China dominates production of rare earths and certain other key materials, which are key components in cars, smartphones and many other items.
The last time Beijing tightened export controls – after Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods early this year – there was an outcry from many US firms reliant on the materials. Carmaker Ford even had to temporarily pause production.
In addition to tightening rules for rare earth exports, China has opened a monopoly investigation into the US tech firm Qualcomm that could stall its acquisition of another chipmaker.
Although Qualcomm is based in the US, a significant portion of its business is concentrated in China.
Beijing has also said it will charge new port fees to ships with ties to the US, including those owned or operated by US firms.
“Some very strange things are happening in China!” Trump wrote in a post on social media on Friday. “They are becoming very hostile.”
The US and China have been in a fragile trade détente since May, when the two sides agreed to drop triple-digit tariffs on each others’ goods that had nearly stopped trade between the two countries.
The move left US tariffs on Chinese goods facing an added 30% levy compared with the start of the year, while US goods entering China face a new 10% tariff.
Officials have held a series of talks since then on matters including TikTok, agricultural purchases, and the trade of rare earths and advanced technology like semiconductors.
The two sides were expected to meet again this month at a summit in South Korea.
China expert Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Xi’s recent actions were a bid to shape the upcoming talks, noting that the recent rare earths directive does not go into effect immediately.
“He’s looking for ways to seize the initiative,” he said. “The Trump administration is having to play a game of whack-a-mole and deal with these issues as they come up.”
He added that he did not think China was worried about US retaliation in response.
“What China took away from the Liberation Day tariffs and the cycle of escalation followed by de-escalation is that the Chinese side had a higher pain threshold,” he said. “From their perspective, the Trump administration blinked.”
In prior rounds of trade talks, China has pushed for looser US restrictions on semiconductors. It is also interested in securing more stable tariff policies that would make it easier for its businesses to sell into the US.
Xi had previously used as leverage his country’s dominance of rare earths production.
But the export rules unveiled this week target overseas defence manufacturers, making them particularly serious, said Gracelin Baskaran, director of the critical minerals security program at Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Nothing makes America move like targeting our defence industry,” she said. “The US is going to have to negotiate because we have limited options, and in an era of rising geopolitical tension and potential conflict, we need to build our industrial defence base.”
While a Trump-Xi meeting now looks unlikely, she said it was not necessarily completely off the table. Ms Baskaran said there’s still time and room for talks. China’s new rules don’t take effect until December.
“Negotiations are likely imminent,” she said. “Who does them and where they happen will be determined with time.”
LAHORE:
Punjab is consolidating its position as Pakistan’s leading investment destination as the provincial government moves ahead with several new industrial initiatives, including a state-of-the-art complex for Chinese executives and investors near the Faisalabad Industrial Estate Development and Management Company (FIEDMC).
In an interview with The Express Tribune, Provincial Minister for Industries, Commerce and Investment Chaudhry Shafay Hussain said the facility is designed to provide a secure and comfortable environment for Chinese professionals, who face travel restrictions in Pakistan due to security concerns.
“The complex will have all the necessary facilities,” he said, adding “it reflects our commitment to ensuring that foreign investors operating in Punjab have a safe and supportive environment.”
Punjab, which contributes nearly 54% to Pakistan’s GDP, continues to attract most of the country’s industrial and foreign investment. According to Shafay, improved infrastructure, skilled manpower and investor-friendly policies have made the province a preferred destination for both local and international investors. Foreign direct investment is increasing, led by Chinese, Turkish and Middle Eastern investors.
Shafay said the government’s focus is on promoting value-added industries to maximise export potential and boost provincial revenues. “It is now a strict policy; every investor must add value to the product. Whether it is pink salt or minerals, only value-added exports will be encouraged,” he said. “This approach will help provinces generate more funds and support sustainable economic growth.”
As part of efforts to diversify its industrial portfolio, Punjab is also engaging with Turkey to strengthen its gems and jewellery sector. “Turkey has great expertise in gemstone processing and jewellery design, and we want to collaborate to bring similar capabilities here,” Shafay said.
Turkey is among the world’s top 10 jewellery exporters, with Istanbul serving as a regional hub for gemstone polishing and gold craftsmanship, a model Punjab aims to learn from.
The minister revealed that new gold placer deposits have been identified in Attock and Jhelum districts. “We are formulating a policy that will go to the cabinet for approval. Once cleared, leases will be offered to regulated investors for exploration and development,” he said, adding that responsible extraction could open a new frontier for Punjab’s mineral sector.
Industrial activity across Punjab is already gaining momentum. “Eight cement companies are currently in the process of obtaining expansion approvals,” Shafay said. “A couple of them are looking to establish new plants of up to 10,000 tons per day, mainly for export purposes.”
He added that similar growth is being seen in emerging sectors such as synthetic leather, electric vehicles (EVs) and EV charging stations, which he believes will lead Punjab’s industrial future.
To further expand industrial capacity, the government has secured 1,400 acres of non-agricultural land in Sialkot for a new industrial estate.
“Sialkot already has an export processing zone, but we are developing another state-of-the-art industrial area that includes a 240-acre dedicated Surgical City,” he said. “It will further enhance Punjab’s exports of medical and surgical instruments, which are already globally recognised.”
Parallel efforts are underway to upgrade industrial estates in southern Punjab. “We are improving facilities in Multan and Bahawalpur and have reduced commercial plot prices to encourage genuine industrialists,” Shafay said, adding “plots will only be allotted to those who plan to build industries, not to those using them for real estate trading.”
Foreign investors continue to show strong confidence in Punjab’s industrial landscape. “Vivo Mobile is setting up a manufacturing unit here and several Chinese firms are investing in EV plants and textile projects,” Shafay said. “Their trust in Punjab’s resources, manpower and infrastructure is growing every year.”
Reflecting on his tenure, the minister admitted that delivering results in a complex administrative setup requires persistence. “The job is not easy if you really want to deliver. Each day brings new challenges and follow-ups consume most of my time. But that’s what is needed to make the system work,” he said.
The minister hoped that the province will continue to lead Pakistan’s industrial transformation as consistent policies, improved infrastructure and renewed investor confidence are steadily positioning Punjab as the country’s most reliable destination for foreign investment and sustainable economic growth for the years to come.
“We have already set the stage for take-off and we hope that the province will establish itself as a growth engine of this region in coming years,” Shafay added.
Business
Currency watch: Rupee rises 7 paise to 88.72 against dollar; domestic markets and crude oil support gains – The Times of India
The rupee strengthened by 7 paise to close at 88.72 against the US dollar on Friday, buoyed by positive domestic market trends and a broad decline in crude oil prices, PTI reported. Forex traders said the central bank’s intervention also provided support, although a firm US dollar capped sharper gains.The rupee opened at 88.80 and traded in a range of 88.50-88.80 before settling at 88.72, compared with Thursday’s close of 88.79. “We expect the rupee to trade with a positive bias on strength in the domestic markets and broad weakness in crude oil prices. The US government shutdown and rising chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut may further bolster the rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Currency and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan. He added that importer demand and a strong US dollar could limit upside, with the USD-INR expected to trade between 88.40 and 88.85.Brent crude was trading lower by 0.61 per cent at $64.85 per barrel in futures trading, while the dollar index fell 0.21 per cent to 99.32. Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said the rupee gained due to foreign inflows into domestic equities and retreat in crude oil prices, noting technical support at 88.50 and resistance at 88.85 for the USD-INR spot pair.Domestic equities mirrored the positive sentiment, with the Sensex rising 328.72 points, or 0.40 per cent, to 82,500.82, and the Nifty climbing 103.55 points, or 0.41 per cent, to 25,285.35. Foreign Institutional Investors were net buyers, acquiring equities worth Rs 459.20 crore on Friday.According to RBI data, India’s forex reserves fell by $276 million to $699.96 billion for the week ended October 3, following a drop of $2.334 billion in the previous week.
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