Business
Most U.S. consumers expect higher holiday prices and a weaker economy, survey finds

As the peak holiday shopping season approaches, most U.S. consumers have a downbeat outlook on the economy, according to an annual Deloitte survey published Wednesday.
Most consumers surveyed — 57% — said they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead, the consulting firm found in a poll of roughly 4,000 respondents. That compares with 30% who expected a weaker economy ahead of the year-ago holiday season and 54% in 2008, one of the years of the Great Recession.
It marks the most negative economic outlook since Deloitte began tracking that in 1997.
Seventy-seven percent of people surveyed said they expect higher prices on holiday items, up from 69% last year, according to Deloitte. It’s the first holiday season since President Donald Trump‘s latest wave of tariff hikes on many imports.
“We’ve been talking about the resilient consumer for a while now, that despite all these pressures, the U.S. consumer continues to spend and we keep seeing growth and spending for retail,” said Brian McCarthy, retail strategy leader for Deloitte. “This outlook is starting to suggest that we’re getting towards the end of that resilience.”
Consumers’ pessimistic mindset has factored into their spending plans during the holiday season. They plan to spend an average of $1,595, 10% less than the $1,778 they planned to spend in the year-ago period, as they brace for higher prices, according to the Deloitte survey.
The lower anticipated spending cuts across all household income groups and nearly all generations, Deloitte found. Yet it was especially significant among younger shoppers.
Gen Z consumers, which in the survey were between ages 18 and 28, said they plan to spend an average of 34% less this holiday season than a year ago. Millennials, respondents between age 29 and 44 in the poll, said they expect to spend an average of 13% less this holiday season.
That compares with Gen X, which plans to spend an average of 3% more, and baby boomers, who expect to spend an average of 6% less.
For Gen Z shoppers, the tighter holiday budget likely comes from feeling more uncertain and unstable early in their careers, McCarthy said.
“They’re thinking about income and the job market and the concerns about the economy is going to throw a lot more pressure on them because they haven’t yet had time to sort of build up their savings or plan for less rosy economic environments,” he said.
Mike Daher, U.S. consumer industry leader for Deloitte, said the age group is also “exposed to a lot of inflationary pressures around housing costs,” along with higher prices for everyday items like groceries.
For retailers and brands, the findings add a note of caution to the most crucial sales period of the year. Other holiday forecasts have also found households expect to spend less, while still reflecting consumers’ appetite for decorating and giving gifts during the festive season.
Holiday spending across stores and online is expected to rise 4% year over year, according to consulting firm Bain & Co., a drop from the 10-year average of 5.2% growth. A separate Adobe Analytics report found online holiday spending in the U.S. is expected to grow 5.3% year over year, but that would be slower than the year-ago increase of 8.7% year over year.
Like Deloitte’s poll, consulting firm PwC’s survey indicated a holiday pullback among Gen Z consumers, who said they planned to spend 23% less than during the year-ago period. Overall, consumers said they expect to spend about 5% less – or an average total of $1,552 – on holiday gifts, travel and entertainment compared with the year-ago season, according to the PwC survey.
The National Retail Federation, the major industry trade group, plans to share its holiday forecast in early November.
Though holiday outlooks have varied, one of the dominant themes of this holiday season will be value-seeking, Deloitte’s McCarthy said. Even in the past several months, the firm has found a notable uptick in the number of U.S. consumers who have reported seeking deals. Across income groups, Deloitte’s survey indicated that 7 in 10 respondents are engaging in three or more deal-seeking behaviors, such as purchasing store brands or alternative ingredients, cooking more meals at home and buying used cars.
As consumers watch their budgets, they told Deloitte they will cut back on holiday-related extras. On average, consumers said they plan to spend $397 on nongift holiday expenses, such as hosting, clothing and decor, a 22% drop from $507 a year ago.
For gifts, however, the cut wasn’t as deep. On average, survey respondents said they plan to buy eight gifts compared with nine in the year-ago period and spend 6% less on average, a drop to $505 compared with $536 in the prior-year holiday season.
Business
Commodity market boost: Sebi plans to boost institutional participation; derivatives and bonds in focus – The Times of India

Markets regulator Sebi is taking steps to enhance institutional participation in both agricultural and non-agricultural commodity markets, aiming to make them more appealing for hedging activities, its chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said on Thursday, PTI reported.Speaking at the Bloomberg Forum for Investment Management, Pandey said, “We are looking to enhance institutional participation to make this market more attractive for hedging.” He added that deepening India’s cash equities market and improving the derivatives segment remain high priorities.The Sebi chief emphasised that any further measures to strengthen commodity markets would be consultative and carefully designed. Last month, he had indicated plans to engage with the government to allow banks, insurance companies, and pension funds to invest in non-agricultural commodity derivative markets.Pandey also highlighted that Sebi is examining proposals to permit foreign portfolio investors to trade in non-cash-settled, non-agricultural commodity derivative contracts.Beyond commodities, the regulator has taken steps to deepen the corporate bond market, making it more accessible for issuers and investors. Sebi is also considering bond derivatives and encouraging the growth of municipal bonds through regulatory reforms and targeted outreach programmes.
Business
Digital gold vs jewellery: Experts weigh in on costs, safety & returns; what you need to know – The Times of India

As Diwali and Dhanteras approach, gold continues to remain a preferred investment and a symbol of tradition in India. While most consumers buy gold in the form of jewellery, coins, and bars during the festive season, digital gold has been attracting attention from investors seeking convenience and systematic wealth accumulation.Digital gold allows investors to benefit from rising gold prices without holding the metal physically. Unlike jewellery, it does not carry making charges and can be purchased online with investments starting as low as Rs 10. The metal is stored in secured vaults, protecting buyers from theft, damage, or the hassles of safe storage, according to an ET report.“Digital gold feels cheaper because you can start small, even with Rs 10. But add platform spreads and GST, and the total cost often comes close to buying physical coins. The real value is convenience. For serious investors, however, Gold ETFs are a smarter alternative as they are regulated by SEBI,” said Trivesh D, COO, Tradejini.Physical gold, on the other hand, retains its charm with lustre and wearability, and its price appreciates over time. Experts, however, point out that it quietly eats into returns due to GST, making charges, and annual locker fees. “Digital gold also has costs: 3% GST and usually a fee as small as 0.3–0.4% annual fee after five years, which varies, but it is transparent and predictable. Over time, digital gold and gold ETFs often cost less unless you are buying large, high-purity coins or bars directly from trusted mints,” Trivesh added, ET quoted.When physical gold makes senseFor large investments exceeding Rs 2–3 lakh, physical gold, especially coins or bars, may be more cost-effective, factoring in per-gram platform costs of digital gold over time, said Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd. and President of India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd. “Investors get to have the physical gold while avoiding prolonged storage fees imposed by digital options after five years. For smaller ticket sizes or systematic accumulation (Rs 100–Rs 10,000), digital gold is a great option because of fractional buying and instant liquidity,” he added.Digital gold also offers unmatched liquidity, allowing investors to buy or sell 24×7 at market-linked rates via trusted apps. “Physical gold, though tangible, involves valuation deductions, purity checks, and buyback delays. The ability to instantly redeem digital gold into cash or physical coins, often linked via UPI, has made it a preferred choice among younger and tech-savvy investors seeking flexibility,” said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures.Security is another advantage. Digital gold is stored in insured, bank-grade vaults audited by independent trustees. “You do not have to worry about theft, damage, or locker keys. Physical gold, even in a locker, carries some risk and an annual rent without full-value insurance. However, platform credibility is crucial,” said Trivesh. Reputable platforms use a custodian model to safeguard ownership even if the provider goes out of business, noted Vijay Kuppa, CEO, InCred Money.Investors can also gradually accumulate wealth through digital gold SIPs. “With the option to start from as little as Rs 10, investors can accumulate gold consistently through automated purchase plans offered by fintech platforms. Given gold’s steady appreciation in 2025, digital gold SIPs are emerging as a convenient and smart long-term savings tool,” said Aksha. Vijay added, “Digital gold perfectly supports the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) model. Investors can set up recurring, small purchases at daily or monthly intervals. Even such a small SIP can eventually lead to an important step in generating wealth.”Over a five- to ten-year horizon, both physical and digital gold track similar price trajectories, but digital gold may deliver slightly better post-tax returns due to negligible storage costs, absence of making charges, and ease of portfolio rebalancing. “With gold prices rising rapidly in 2025 amid global uncertainty, systematic accumulation through digital platforms ensures efficiency and tax parity while avoiding the expenses associated with holding physical gold,” Aksha said.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Business
Nifty Earnings Expected To Grow 16% In FY27: Report

New Delhi: The average earnings from Nifty 50 companies are expected to grow 8 per cent in FY26 and 16 per cent in FY27, driven by policy measures, macro resilience, and a maturing domestic investor base, a report said on Thursday. As India’s markets enter Samvat 2082, the Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) report said that it is positive on BFSI, capital markets, consumption, manufacturing, and digital sectors.
The broking firm noted policy measures that increased liquidity and demand, such as a 100-basis-point repo cut, a 150-basis-point CRR reduction, Rs 1 lakh crore in income tax relief, GST 2.0 reforms, and reduced inflation, have improved consumer sentiment.
“We believe this marks the beginning of a turnaround in India’s domestic growth momentum, with a significant pickup in consumption paving the way for a robust revival in the private capex cycle. This, along with the improving earnings trajectory, should lend support to Indian equities,” the report said.
Motilal Oswal said that these tailwinds support a forecast for a shift from single-digit earnings growth to sustainable double-digit growth in the second half of FY26. “The underlying fundamentals have strengthened – supported by a 7.8 per cent GDP growth in Q1FY26, easing inflation at 1.5 per cent in September 2025 compared to 5.5 per cent in September 2024, and a supportive policy environment that continues to boost investor confidence,” it said.
Valuations are reasonable and close to long-term averages at approximately 20 times FY26 earnings. Mid and small caps are trading at a slight premium, indicating a need for selective stock picking, the brokerage said. Financials are set for earnings recovery in H2FY26, aided by lower borrowing costs, improving NIMs, and steady deposits, the brokerage firm said. Capex revival and policy reforms should drive multiyear growth for the manufacturing sector, positioning India as a key global manufacturing hub, the report noted.
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