Business
China has found Trump’s pain point – rare earths
Osmond ChiaBusiness reporter
ReutersLast week, China’s Ministry of Commerce published a document that went by the name of “announcement No. 62 of 2025”.
But this wasn’t just any bureaucratic missive. It has rocked the fragile tariffs truce with the US.
The announcement detailed sweeping new curbs on its rare earth exports, in a move that tightens Beijing’s grip on the global supply of the critical minerals – and reminded Donald Trump just how much leverage China holds in the trade war.
China has a near-monopoly in the processing of rare earths – crucial for the production of everything from smartphones to fighter jets.
Under the new rules, foreign companies now need the Chinese government’s approval to export products that contain even a tiny amount of rare earths and must declare their intended use.
In response, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and put export controls on key software.
“This is China versus the world. They have pointed a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world, and we’re not going to have it,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
On Thursday, China said the US had “deliberately provoked unnecessary misunderstanding and panic” over the rare earths restrictions.
“Provided the export licence applications are compliant and intended for civilian use, they will be approved,” a commerce ministry spokesperson added.
This week, the world’s two biggest economies also imposed new port fees on each other’s ships.
The flare-up in the trade war brings to an end months of relative calm after top US and Chinese officials brokered a truce in May.
Later this month, Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are expected to meet and experts have told the BBC the rare earths restrictions will give China the upper hand.
China’s new controls are bound to “shock the system” as they target vulnerabilities in American supply chains, said international business lecturer Naoise McDonagh from Australia’s Edith Cowan University.
“The timing has really upset the kind of timeline for negotiations that the Americans wanted,” he added.
Getty ImagesRare earth minerals are essential for the production of a whole range of technology such as solar panels, electric cars and military equipment.
For example, a single F-35 fighter jet is estimated to need more than 400kg (881.8lb) of rare earths for its stealth coatings, motors, radars and other components.
China’s rare earth exports also account for around 70% of the world’s supply of metals used for magnets in electric vehicle motors, said Natasha Jha Bhaskar from advisory firm the Newland Global Group.
Beijing has worked hard to gain its dominance of the global rare earth processing capacity, said critical minerals researcher Marina Zhang from the University of Technology Sydney.
The country has nurtured a vast talent pool in the field, while its research and development network is years ahead of its competitors, she added.
While the US and other countries are investing heavily to develop alternatives to China for supplies of rare earths, they are still some way from achieving that goal.
With its own large deposits of rare earths, Australia has been tipped as a potential challenger to China. But its production infrastructure is still underdeveloped, making processing relatively expensive, Ms Zhang said.
“Even if the US and all its allies make processing rare earths a national project, I would say that it will take at least five years to catch up with China.”
The new restrictions expand measures Beijing announced in April that caused a global supply crunch, before a series of deals with Europe and the US eased the shortages.
The latest official figures from China show that exports of the critical minerals were down in September by more than 30% compared to a year ago.
But analysts say China’s economy is unlikely to be hurt by the drop in exports.
Rare earths make up a very small part of China’s $18.7tn a year economy, said Prof Sophia Kalantzakos from New York University.
Some estimates put the value of the exports at less than 0.1% of China’s annual gross domestic product (GDP).
While rare earths’ economic value to China may be tiny their strategic value “is huge”, she said, as they give Beijing more leverage in talks with the US.
Despite accusing China of “betrayal”, Bessent has left the door open to negotiations.
“I believe China is open to discussion and I am optimistic this can be de-escalated,” he said.
During a meeting with the US private equity group Blackstone’s chief executive Stephen Schwarzman on Thursday, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi also highlighted the need for talks.
“The two sides should engage in effective communication, properly resolve differences and promote stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations,” Wang said, according to the ministry’s website.
What China has done recently is “getting its ducks in a row” ahead of those trade talks with the US, said Prof Kalantzakos.
In curbing rare earth exports, Beijing has found its “best immediate lever” to pressure Washington for a favourable deal, Ms Bhaskar said.
Getty ImagesJiao Yang from Singapore Management University believes that although Beijing holds the cards in the short-run, Washington does have some strategic options at its disposal.
The US could offer to lower tariffs, which is likely to be attractive to Beijing as the trade war has hit its manufacturers hard, said Prof Jiao said.
China’s economy is reliant on the income from the goods it makes and exports. The latest official figures show its exports to the US were down by 27% compared to a year ago.
Washington can also threaten to hit China with more trade restrictions to hamper efforts to develop its technology sector, said Prof McDonagh.
For example, the White House has already targeted China’s need for high-end semiconductors by blocking its purchases of Nvidia’s most advanced chips.
But experts say that is likely to have only limited effects.
Measures targeting Beijing’s tech industry may slow China but won’t “stop it dead in the water,” said Prof McDonagh.
China has shown with its recent economic strategy that it is willing to take some pain to achieve its long-term goals, he added.
“China can carry on even if it costs a lot more under US export controls.
“But if China cuts off these rare earth supplies, that can actually stop everyone’s industry. That’s the big difference.”
Business
Asian stocks today: Kospi drops 1.6% as Middle East tensions weigh on markets – The Times of India
Asian stocks mostly fell on Friday as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to unsettle global markets, while oil prices remained elevated despite some efforts to ease supply concerns.After a difficult week on trading floors, investors are heading into the weekend uncertain about when the US-Israel war on Iran and Tehran’s attacks across the Gulf region might end.Global equities have been battered by the crisis, which has pushed crude prices sharply higher and raised fears of renewed inflation that could weigh on the global economy. Oil prices have surged by about a fifth since last Friday, the day before the attacks began.Although markets saw a rebound in the middle of the week, analysts warned that the longer the conflict continues, the more pressure it will put on financial markets.“It is too soon to suggest that stocks have bottomed,” wrote IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp, as quoted by AFP.“Unless the war ends soon- and if anything a more intense conflict seems more likely- markets will struggle. Volatility remains elevated, which means we should expect plenty of two-way price action, but a continued decline for the moment seems likely, even with short-term bounces along the way.”The conflict also appears unlikely to ease soon. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday that Iran was neither seeking a ceasefire nor negotiations with the United States.Asian markets largely followed losses on Wall Street, where all three main indexes ended lower despite staging late rallies.Seoul again saw sharp movement. The Kospi index, which plunged nearly 19 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday before rebounding more than nine percent on Thursday, fell another 1.5 per cent.Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta were also down, while Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Taipei managed gains.Concerns about rising crude prices have also intensified fears that inflation could climb again, potentially forcing central banks to reconsider plans to cut interest rates, with some analysts warning that rate hikes could even return.While Iran has not officially shut off the Strait of Hormuz, shipping through the key waterway has all but dried up. Around a fifth of the world’s crude supply and large volumes of gas normally pass through the strait.There was some relief in oil markets after US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said officials were considering measures to ease the surge in prices.The White House also temporarily eased sanctions against Russia on Thursday, allowing Russian oil currently stranded at sea to be sold to India until April 3.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the waiver was issued “to enable oil to keep flowing into the global market.”Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump pledged to protect ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.Other countries have also taken steps to secure supplies. According to Bloomberg News, China has asked its largest oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline amid fears of shortages.Despite the small pullback, oil prices remain high. By the end of trading Thursday, Brent crude had risen about 19 percent since last Friday, while West Texas Intermediate had climbed more than 22 percent, briefly crossing $80 a barrel for the first time since January last year.Investors are also watching the release of US jobs data later on Friday for clues about the strength of the world’s largest economy.At around 0230 GMT, oil prices were higher, with West Texas Intermediate rising 2.0 percent to $79.38 per barrel and Brent North Sea Crude up 1.5 percent at $84.10 per barrel. In equity markets, Seoul’s Kospi fell 1.6 percent to 5,497.51, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.4 percent to 55,490.04. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.9 percent to 25,557.59 and Shanghai’s Composite edged up 0.1 percent to 4,111.86. In currency trading, the euro strengthened to $1.1617 from $1.1604 on Thursday, while the pound rose slightly to $1.3367 from $1.3357. The dollar slipped to 157.51 yen from 157.55 yen, and the euro rose to 86.91 pence from 86.87 pence.
Last Updated:
Every $10 rise in global crude oil prices could shave around 0.5 percentage points off India’s GDP growth, say experts
India imports nearly 50 percent of crude oil from the Middle East
Every $10 rise in global crude oil prices could shave around 0.5 percentage points off India’s GDP growth, underscoring the country’s heavy reliance on imported oil and vulnerability to global energy volatility, Vandana Bharti, Research Head–Commodity at SMC Global Securities, told ANI.
In an interview with ANI, Bharti said escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia pose a significant economic risk for India as crude prices climb and supply chains face potential disruptions.
“Every $10 increase in crude oil prices impacts India’s GDP by roughly 0.5%. We have already seen prices rise by about $10–$15 recently, and the economic impact will eventually reflect in growth numbers,” she said.
West Asia tensions driving oil prices higher
The surge in oil prices follows intensifying tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical maritime corridor through which roughly 20–25% of global oil shipments pass.
Bharti said the conflict has injected additional uncertainty into global energy markets and added what she described as a “war premium” to crude prices.
“It’s not just about the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz closing. Insurance costs and freight charges are rising, and shipments are being rerouted. All these factors add a war premium to crude oil prices and increase market uncertainty,” she said.
Risks extend beyond shipping
According to Bharti, the risks go beyond maritime routes and extend to energy infrastructure itself.
“Energy sites such as crude oil facilities and LNG plants are potential targets. There are also concerns about seabed cables and other critical infrastructure. So the threat is not only to energy supply but also to broader global trade and connectivity,” she noted.
Crude prices rise sharply
Oil prices have already surged as tensions intensified in the region.
Bharti said crude climbed from around $69 per barrel to nearly $78 per barrel within a week.
“In just one week we have seen prices move from about $69 to $78 per barrel. If tensions persist, crude could rise further to around $85–$87 per barrel in the coming days,” she said.
India’s reliance on Middle Eastern crude
India remains particularly vulnerable to such price shocks due to its heavy dependence on imported oil.
Bharti noted that roughly half of India’s crude imports come from the Middle East, and many domestic refineries are specifically configured to process Middle Eastern crude grades.
“India imports nearly 50% of its crude from the Middle East, so any disruption in the region directly impacts supply availability and pricing,” she said.
India maintains strategic petroleum reserves that can help cushion short-term disruptions, but Bharti emphasised that these are primarily meant for emergencies.
“We have reserves that can last about 25–30 days in emergency situations, but the structural dependence on Middle Eastern supply remains,” she said.
She added that even brief supply disruptions could trigger volatility across Asian financial markets.
“Even a two-week disruption could create significant volatility in Asia. We are already seeing pressure on currencies, equity outflows and rising economic uncertainty,” Bharti said.
Diversification may cushion the impact
Bharti said India could mitigate some risks by diversifying crude supply sources.
“Russia has been offering crude at discounted prices, so India may increase purchases from Russia or other suppliers if required. Adjusting supply chains and renegotiating trade arrangements can provide some relief,” she said.
She also pointed out that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may attempt to stabilise prices, although security concerns could limit immediate production increases.
Impact on fertilisers and agriculture
Higher crude prices could also ripple into other sectors of the economy.
Bharti warned that rising energy costs may push up fertiliser prices and agricultural input costs, potentially affecting the upcoming kharif crop season.
“Higher energy costs could make fertilisers and farm inputs more expensive, which may increase the cost of cultivation for farmers,” she said.
Renewables gain strategic importance
Bharti added that the ongoing geopolitical tensions highlight the need for countries to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
“Events like this are a wake-up call. Governments may increasingly prioritise renewable energy such as solar to reduce dependence on volatile fossil-fuel supply routes,” she said.
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March 06, 2026, 08:16 IST
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