India’s cotton arrivals are expected to increase next week, reaching their peak by mid-November. Farmers are likely to bring seed cotton in bulk once the government’s trading company, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), begins procurement at the minimum support price (MSP) in full swing. This year’s cotton crop has been delayed due to late monsoon rains and late sowing. Maharashtra, a major cotton-producing state, is still experiencing rainfall.

Cotton acreage in the country stands at 110.03 lakh hectares in the current season, down from 112.97 lakh hectares a year ago, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The area was 123.71 lakh hectares in 2023–24 and averaged 129.50 lakh hectares over the past five years.

India’s cotton arrivals are expected to rise sharply next week, peaking by mid-November as CCI begins MSP procurement.
Late monsoon rains delayed sowing and harvest, particularly in Maharashtra.
While prices remain below MSP due to high moisture, arrivals are set to strengthen, with CCI’s large-scale purchases likely to support market stability.

According to market traders, daily cotton arrivals were between 50,000 and 60,000 bales of 170 kg before Diwali. Cotton arrivals typically begin in north India in mid-September, but this year they started in the last week of September. Farmers in north India—including Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan—delayed sowing to avoid damage from late rains in previous years.

Satish Sharma, a trader from Bathinda (Punjab), told Fibre2Fashion, “Farmers faced severe damage from late rains in previous years. Therefore, they preferred sowing in the later phase this year, which caused a slight delay in arrivals. Despite precautions, late rain has damaged some crops in Haryana.” He added that the region is currently receiving around 10,000–12,000 bales of cotton daily, which may rise to 20,000–22,000 bales in the next two weeks. “However, this is insignificant nationally, as north India contributes a relatively small portion to the country’s total cotton production,” he added.

Gujarat and Maharashtra, which together account for over 50 per cent of India’s total cotton output, are yet to see arrivals pick up. Maharashtra continues to experience sporadic rains, delaying cotton picking. Chetal Bhojani, a trader from Morbi (Gujarat), told F2F, “Farmers will bring seed cotton in bulk when CCI starts procurement across all centres. Currently, they are selling only to meet financial needs. Seed cotton prices remain lower than the MSP.”

On Friday, seed cotton was priced between ₹1,450 and ₹1,615 per maund of 20 kg, while CCI’s MSP stands at ₹1,615 per maund. Higher moisture levels and slow demand have depressed open-market prices. Bhojani noted that seed cotton had moisture levels of 30–40 per cent before Diwali, while cotton seed was sold with about 25 per cent moisture. Ginned cotton traded at 10–11 per cent moisture before the festival. Although traders were buying cotton with certain moisture content, it further reduced both seed and ginned cotton prices. After Diwali, new seed cotton is expected to attract better demand due to lower moisture content.

Traders said cotton arrivals are set to increase in the coming week and could surpass 1 lakh bales within the next two weeks. However, peak arrivals of around 2 lakh bales per day are expected only once CCI begins full-scale procurement. The government agency has started symbolic purchases, which could send a positive signal to the market and keep prices steady. Still, market prices are likely to find real support only when large-scale procurement begins.

Last season, the government agency purchased about one-third of the total crop as market prices remained below the MSP. A similar scenario is expected this year. Cotton prices may improve slightly but are likely to stay under the MSP. Consequently, CCI’s procurement could again reach around 100 lakh bales, similar to last year.

Trade sources said CCI has yet to start large-scale procurement despite sufficient arrivals, as it aims to limit purchases. Extensive buying would place a heavy financial burden on the government. The corporation may begin procurement state by state once arrivals intensify across major producing regions.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)