Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.

Don’t be surprised if … San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy is a top-10 fantasy QB this month

Matchups matter, and Purdy and his buddies play the Tennessee Titans this week, then the reeling Indianapolis Colts. That should be enough to persuade fantasy managers to slide Purdy into their lineups. The Titans are bad, and they have been lit up recently by Shedeur Sanders, Davis Mills and others. There’s more. The 49ers didn’t play in Week 14. While we/many mocked the NFL for having teams serve bye weeks in December, during our fantasy playoffs! (how dare they!), the aftermath of this is important. RB Christian McCaffrey and TE George Kittle rested. Of course, they are the lone 49ers typically in a fantasy lineup.

Purdy rested, too. He lacks the flashy statistics this season as he battled a sprained left shoulder and then a toe injury, missing more than half the games. Purdy threw three touchdown passes in Week 11 against Arizona, then threw three interceptions the following Monday night against the tougher-than-people-realize Carolina Panthers. He scored 17.12 points in Week 13 against a strong Cleveland Browns defense. Purdy averaged 17.8 points last season. He was fantasy’s No. 6 QB in 2023. We have seen and enjoyed his upside, and with this schedule, I say he rewards those who trust him. Play Purdy over Patrick Mahomes (vs. Chargers), Lamar Jackson (no, I don’t think he is fine), Dak Prescott and myriad others this week.

Other QB thoughts:

• Sticking to the matchups theme, do not talk yourself out of relying on Philadelphia Eagles starter Jalen Hurts. C’mon, people. The Las Vegas Raiders are coming to Philly, and Hurts, fresh off a five-turnover nightmare Monday in Los Angeles, is not going to score only 0.4 more points than you and I again. The Raiders are awful. Calls for backup Tanner McKee are ridiculous. The Eagles have lost three in a row, but they should score at will against the Raiders, and then they get the indifferent Washington Commanders in Weeks 16 and 18. Hurts scored 30.86 fantasy points in Week 12. Nobody — Eagles or you — is benching him.

• The situation with Hurts highlights that there is a big difference between evaluating quarterbacks for real-life and fantasy purposes. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell discussed the league’s top MVP candidates, with QBs Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love leading the way. Fantasy managers should view Love quite differently. Although he could still finish among the top 10 QB scorers this season, he isn’t there yet, and last season he finished 17th. Give Love credit for strides in the turnover department, but he has scored single-digit fantasy points in three of the past six games, and I like his odds for another statistically disappointing effort in Denver on Sunday. Perhaps the Green Bay Packers keep winning, but one must separate fantasy and reality.

• The Indianapolis Colts, having lost three games in a row and their starting QB Daniel Jones, hit the road Sunday to face the Seattle Seahawks. No, I don’t think they are winning that one, either. Choose your statistical evidence however you please, but the Seahawks and Broncos are right up there for toughest defense to do just about anything against. We would not have recommended a healthy Jones for this matchup, so don’t even ask about Riley Leonard (knee), Philip Rivers (grandpa), Anthony Richardson Sr. (knee), Peyton Manning (on my TV a lot more than the other fellows), Bert Jones (Google him) or whomever else the Colts could find for this one.

Don’t be surprised if … Cincinnati Bengals veteran Chase Brown finishes among the top 10 RB scorers

Brown has been on a fantasy tear the past two months, reaching 18 fantasy points in five of six games. Perhaps he was among the bigger disappointments for the first six weeks, but he has been among the top five RBs since then. Brown isn’t doing this solely with touchdowns, either, even though he scored a pair in Week 14. He produced 113 scrimmage yards against the team he faces this week, the Baltimore Ravens, in Week 13, and he is fifth at his position in receptions. Yeah, Samaje Perine took some touches away last week, but that might not matter much. Brown still enjoyed 15 touches. The Bengals are the easiest team for RBs to accrue fantasy points against, but the Ravens are fourth.

McCaffrey should finish as the top running back fantasy scorer this season, with Jahmyr Gibbs finishing second. Gibbs should pass Jonathan Taylor, whom I wouldn’t sit in a fantasy playoff game, but hey, because of the QB situation he may find things more challenging than normal this and every Sunday. Because of his rough start to the season, Brown may not match his 255 fantasy points (15.9 per game) from last season, but he has been above that range for the past six weeks, and he should be in all lineups.

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Is Jaylen Wright worth adding in fantasy?

Eric Karabell explains why fantasy managers should consider adding Jaylen Wright afer his nice game vs. the Jets.

Other RB thoughts:

• I think Miami Dolphins star De’Von Achane (ribs) plays in Pittsburgh on Monday night, but alas, we may not have a finite answer by Sunday morning. So I am a bit surprised Jaylen Wright wasn’t added in more leagues, especially by Achane investors. As of Thursday afternoon, Wright’s roster figure is up only 3.7% from last week to 14.6%, before he ripped the admittedly embarrassing New York Jets for 107 rushing yards and a score in a relief role. These are our playoffs. Have a plan. Really, the Dolphins should throw all over the Pittsburgh Steelers, since they permit the most fantasy points to WRs and third most to TEs. Make sure Jaylen Waddle is in lineups, and if you don’t have one of the top-tier tight ends, we are making the case for Darren Waller, too.

• Next year will be the first big one for New England Patriots rookie TreVeyon Henderson. I may even rank him among the top 10 running backs, depending on what happens with veteran Rhamondre Stevenson. This season, however, we should be wary of both, because they cancel each other out when each is active. Stevenson, averaging 3.2 yards per rush, is not having a good season, but he continues to see relatively equal volume to Henderson, who averages 4.8 yards per tote. Fantasy managers may not like it, but Henderson is hardly guaranteed to shine this month, even against a Bills defense that struggles against the run. Henderson ran for 24 yards in the Week 6 game at Buffalo. Though Henderson has made strides in pass blocking, Stevenson is the proven veteran and the Patriots seem to trust him more in that capacity, still.

Don’t be surprised if … Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Wilson remains a top-five option the rest of the season

The Cardinals face the mighty Houston Texans defense this week, so this prediction may seem odd, but give any receiver a million targets and good things tend to happen. First, I don’t think Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) is playing again this season. The 3-10 Cardinals have locked up last place in the NFC West, and Harrison playing can’t change anything. They struggle to run the football effectively, so journeyman QB Jacoby Brissett slings it 40-something times per game. No, seriously, he averages more than 300 passing yards per game this season. Nobody else is.

Wilson is fantasy’s top WR over the past four weeks, averaging 24.7 fantasy points on 14 targets per game, and there’s little reason to expect things to alter — assuming Harrison sits — even against the top defense. This should be like the Rams game last week, with the Cardinals getting blown out and the winning team caring little about Wilson piling on numbers. Old-timers may recall Billy Volek and Drew Bennett going gangbusters for about a month later in the 2004 season for the Tennessee Titans. This Cardinals deal feels similar.

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Should you start Michael Wilson in Week 15?

Liz Loza discusses why fantasy managers should look forward to starting Michael Wilson in Week 15 if Marvin Harrison Jr. is still sidelined.

Other WR thoughts:

• I find myself discussing this each week, but I view Jacksonville Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers as a WR2 these days. Do you really want to judge him on his numbers with the Raiders? Meyers is thriving with Trevor Lawrence, and this week, the Jaguars get to feast on the lowly Jets. Predicting touchdowns for wide receivers is dangerous, but Meyers certainly has quite the opportunity to make it four games in a row Sunday.

• Ravens WR Zay Flowers looked better against a bad Steelers pass defense in Week 14, catching eight of 11 targets for 124 yards, but he still hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. I don’t really trust him against the Bengals and likely shadow DJ Turner II, since these fellows matched up two weeks ago and Flowers caught two passes for six yards. Also, Lamar Jackson still isn’t right. I like TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to have big games against the Bengals, but not the Baltimore WRs.

Mikel Arteta has ruled out the prospect of Gabriel Jesus leaving Arsenal in January.

The 28-year-old made his long-awaited return to first-team actions as a 62nd-minute substitute in Wednesday’s 3-0 Champions League win at Club Brugge.

Jesus had been sidelined since January after undergoing knee surgery and afterwards claimed “God saved my life” as he battled “11 months of helping myself and then feeling scared to come back different, maybe with some limitations.”

The striker faces tough competition to win back a regular starting spot, however, with €73 million ($85.6m) summer signing Viktor Gyökeres fit again and Kai Havertz nearing a return to full fitness following his own knee problem.

Without that trio, midfielder Mikel Merino has thrived as a makeshift centre-forward and the combination has led to speculation Jesus could seek a move in January in a bid to force his way into the Brazil squad for next summer’s World Cup finals.

However, speaking on Friday, Arteta was asked whether he would consider allowing Jesus, whose contract expires in the summer of 2027, to leave next month.

“No, I don’t consider that and especially with the situation we have right now,” replied Arteta. “I think Gabby has a lot to offer to the team and he is proving that straight away in the first minutes that he was available to play. He has put so much [in] to be in this position again and now the focus is to be with us.

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“A player of his quality, a player who has given us so much and when he comes with the energy he did the other day, he is certainly a player who has to be pushing and aiming [to start], that’s for sure.”

Arteta was typically guarded on his squad’s injuries, claiming Declan Rice, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba and Leandro Trossard will all be assessed before determining if they can face Wolves on Saturday.

Wolves are rock-bottom in the Premier League having picked up just two points all season and when asked how to guard against complacency, Arteta said: “By understanding that a team in that position has to react and show their teeth. |That’s a dangerous thing in this league and when every team has the quality they have. So [being complacent] is not going to happen.”

KOLKATA: Lionel Messi will unveil a 21-metre (70-foot) statue of himself in India on Saturday as he embarks on a three-day tour of the country that has sparked a fan frenzy.

The iron sculpture in Kolkata, which shows Messi holding aloft the World Cup, is part of a so-called GOAT Tour that will take in four Indian cities and a possible meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The 38-year-old Argentina and Inter Miami superstar will unveil the monument virtually rather than in person for security reasons.

A “Hola Messi” fan zone has also been set up in Kolkata where on display is a life-sized replica of Messi sat on a throne.

The hall also recreates his Miami home, complete with mannequins of his family members.

Football fan Samir Nandy said it would be “a dream come true” to catch a glimpse of his idol.

“Legends are not made by success alone. It is his resilience that made me believe in him,” Nandy, 64, said in Kolkata.

“The statue is a fitting tribute to him.”

Monty Paul, the statue’s main sculptor, told AFP the structure was built inside 40 days.

“It’s a matter of pride to build the sculpture of Messi. It’s the tallest statue I have made,” he said.

The eight-time Ballon d’Or winner will also meet Bollywood superstar Shah Rukh Khan and former India cricket captain Saurav Ganguly during his whirlwind trip to Kolkata.

Ahead of his arrival, Messi said it was an honour to visit India and interact with the fans.

“India is a very special country and I have good memories from my time there 14 years ago — the fans were fantastic,” Messi said in an official statement.

“India is a passionate football nation and I look forward to meeting a new generation of fans while sharing the love I have for this beautiful game.”

After Kolkata, where Messi will play a short friendly match, he will head to Hyderabad, Mumbai and New Delhi.

In Hyderabad he will attend a concert in his honour and play another friendly.

He is reportedly scheduled to meet Modi in the capital.

Messi won his second consecutive Major League Soccer Most Valuable Player award this week after propelling Inter Miami to the MLS title and leading the league in goals.

The former Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain attacker will spearhead Argentina’s defence of the World Cup in June-July in North America.