Business
Interest rates cut to 3.75% but further reductions to be ‘closer call’
Michael RaceBusiness reporter
Getty ImagesInterest rates have been cut to 3.75%, the lowest level in almost three years, but further reductions are set to be a “closer call”, the Bank of England has said.
In a knife-edge vote, policymakers voted 5-4 in favour to lower rates from 4% reflecting concerns over rising unemployment and weak economic growth.
The Bank said rates were “likely to continue on a gradual downward path”, but warned judgements on further cuts next year would more contested.
Inflation is now expected to fall “closer to 2%” – the Bank’s target – next year, which is sooner than previous forecasts. However, the economy is predicted to see zero growth in the final few months of this year.
The decision to lower borrowing costs from 4% was widely expected, after figures this week showed inflation, the rate prices rise at, slowed further to 3.2% in the year to November.
“We still think rates are on a gradual path downward but with every cut we make, how much further we go becomes a closer call,” said the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey.
While the cut is likely to be good news for people looking to borrow cash or secure a mortgage, savers could see a reduction on their returns.
About 500,000 homeowners have a mortgage that “tracks” the Bank of England’s rate, and Thursday’s cut is likely to mean a typical reduction of £29 in monthly repayments.
Homeowners on standard variable rates are also likely to see lower payments, although the vast majority of mortgage customers have fixed-rate deals so are not affected by the latest decision.
The Bank said that, following the tax and spending policies announced in last month’s Budget and easing oil and gas prices, inflation was likely to fall close to 2% in the spring/summer of next year. Previously it did not expect this to happen until 2027.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the government would cut £150 off household energy bills in the Budget, as well as freeze fuel duty and rail fares.
However, the Bank said weaker economic growth in November had led it to expect zero growth for the final few months of this year.
It said information gathered from businesses around the country suggested a “lacklustre economy”, with firms concerned by the speculation ahead of the Budget.
The Bank said consumers remained “cautious and keenly focused on value for money”, adding that food shops were “smaller than usual”.
“Some supermarkets have been concerned that the Budget will dampen spending on Christmas food and drink, but discounters say that early sales of lowered priced seasonal food are solid so far,” it added.
Latest figures showed the price of food was the main driver behind November’s drop in inflation.
The inflation rate has fallen in recent months, but this drop does not mean that prices are falling, rather they are rising at a slower rate.
Mr Bailey reiterated that the Bank believed inflation had passed its peak.
Reacting to the Bank’s decision, the chancellor said it was the “sixth interest rate cut since the election – that’s the fastest pace of cuts in 17 years, good news for families with mortgages and businesses with loans”.
But shadow chancellor Mel Stride said while lower interest rates would be “welcome news for many families”, the cut reflected “growing concerns about the weakness of our economy”.
“The economic mismanagement of Rachel Reeves has left the Bank of England with an impossible dilemma, balancing high inflation against a fragile economy.”
EPAThe Bank, which is independent of the government, sets interest rates in an attempt to try to keep consumer price rises under control.
The theory behind increasing interest rates to tackle inflation is that by making borrowing more expensive, more people will cut back on spending and that leads to demand for goods falling and price rises easing.
But it is a balancing act, as high interest rates can harm the economy as businesses hold off from investing in production and jobs.
The government has made growing the economy its main priority as part of its efforts to boost living standards.
In its most recent Monetary Policy Report, the Bank predicted UK economic growth would be 1.5% this year, but forecast it would fall to 1.2% next year before rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028.
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India’s fuel demand growth may slow sharply in H2 2026 amid price hikes, austerity push: Report
India’s transportation fuel demand growth is expected to slow sharply in the second half of 2026 as higher fuel prices, government-led conservation measures and a weakening rupee weigh on mobility and consumption trends, according to a report.The report by Kpler’s lead analyst (modelling), Elif Binici, revised down India’s 2026 refined products demand growth forecast by around 77,000 barrels per day (kbd), or 39 per cent, to nearly 78 kbd from an earlier estimate of 128 kbd.As per news agency PTI, the downgrade reflects weaker expected growth in petrol and diesel demand due to elevated fuel costs, softer mobility trends and official efforts to conserve fuel amid the ongoing West Asia crisis.Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by around Rs 5 per litre in three instalments since May 15, after oil marketing companies passed on part of the burden of soaring global crude oil prices to consumers.
Petrol demand faces steepest downside risk
The report said petrol demand is likely to see the sharpest slowdown, with projected growth revised down by 25 kbd, from 63 kbd to 38 kbd.Petrol consumption is now estimated at 1,010 kbd, compared to the earlier estimate of 1,035 kbd.According to the report, weaker commuting activity, slower discretionary travel and government fuel-saving campaigns are expected to curb fuel consumption.Annual diesel demand growth was also cut by around 20 kbd, while jet fuel demand growth was nearly halved to about 6 kbd from 11 kbd earlier due to expectations of reduced air travel and tighter spending patterns.“The revisions primarily reflect weaker expected growth in gasoline and diesel demand as higher costs, weaker mobility trends, and recent government-led fuel conservation efforts increasingly feed into domestic transportation activity,” the report said, as quoted by PTI.
Rupee weakness, crude surge add pressure
The report noted that India’s macroeconomic environment has deteriorated since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with rising crude import costs, refinery expenses and rupee depreciation increasing inflationary pressure.The rupee has weakened by around 6 per cent since the conflict began and nearly 10 per cent over the past year. Foreign exchange reserves have also reportedly declined by about 4.3 per cent since late February as authorities attempted to stabilise the currency and contain imported inflation.The report said the current average petrol price of around Rs 103 per litre remains well below the estimated breakeven level of nearly Rs 125 per litre.Diesel prices near Rs 94 per litre are also below the estimated breakeven range of Rs 115-120 per litre.Before the recent price revisions, state-run fuel retailers were reportedly losing nearly Rs 1,000 crore daily because rising crude procurement costs and currency weakness outpaced retail fuel prices.“The key issue is the inability of state-run retailers to pass through rising import costs quickly enough to restore profitability,” the report said.
Russian crude continues to support supply security
The report added that India’s dependence on discounted Russian crude imports, estimated at around 1.9-2 million barrels per day, continues to provide stability to the domestic fuel market amid geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia.Policymakers now appear to be prioritising macroeconomic stability, inflation management, foreign exchange preservation and fuel supply security over near-term fuel demand growth.The report warned that unless crude prices ease significantly, the rupee stabilises or additional fiscal support measures are introduced, further fuel price hikes and stricter fuel-conservation measures may become difficult to avoid.
The combined market valuation of six of India’s top-10 most valued companies rose by Rs 74,111.57 crore last week, with Reliance Industries emerging as the biggest gainer. The rally came during a volatile trading week in which the BSE Sensex advanced 177.36 points, or 0.23%.According to news agency ANI, Reliance Industries added Rs 24,696.89 crore to its valuation, taking its total market capitalisation to Rs 18,33,117.70 crore.Tata Consultancy Services saw its valuation jump by Rs 19,338.68 crore to Rs 8,38,401.33 crore, while ICICI Bank added Rs 14,515.93 crore to reach a market capitalisation of Rs 9,06,901.32 crore.The valuation of Life Insurance Corporation of India climbed Rs 9,076.37 crore to Rs 5,14,443.69 crore.Meanwhile, Bajaj Finance gained Rs 3,797.83 crore, taking its valuation to Rs 5,70,515.57 crore, while Larsen & Toubro added Rs 2,685.87 crore to Rs 5,40,228.21 crore.
Airtel, HUL among laggards
On the losing side, Bharti Airtel witnessed the sharpest erosion in market value, losing Rs 20,229.67 crore to settle at Rs 11,40,295.49 crore.The market valuation of Hindustan Unilever declined by Rs 16,212.18 crore to Rs 5,17,380 crore, while State Bank of India lost Rs 12,784.4 crore in valuation to Rs 8,76,077.92 crore.HDFC Bank also saw its market capitalisation dip by Rs 2,094.35 crore to Rs 11,79,974.90 crore.Reliance Industries retained its position as India’s most valued company, followed by HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, TCS, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and LIC.
Markets end volatile week with modest gains
Ajit Mishra, SVP, research at Religare Broking Ltd, said markets ended the week with marginal gains amid a “highly volatile and range-bound trading environment”.“Benchmark indices witnessed sharp intraday swings throughout the week, driven by persistent rupee weakness, mixed global cues, sectoral rotation, and continued uncertainty around inflation and interest rates,” he said, as quoted by ANI.Benchmark indices recovered on Friday, with the Sensex closing 231.99 points higher at 75,415.35 and the NSE Nifty rising 64.60 points to settle at 23,719.30.Analysts cited optimism surrounding possible progress in US-Iran peace negotiations and easing Middle East tensions as factors supporting market sentiment.Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, was quoted by news agency PTI as saying that domestic markets traded with a “mild positive bias” due to buying at lower levels and constructive global cues.“Globally, the AI investment theme remained the primary driver, while domestically, financial stocks led the gains,” he said.Brent crude prices climbed 2.3% to $104.7 per barrel, while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,891.21 crore in the previous session.
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