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India Overtakes Japan To Become World’s Fourth-Largest Economy, Eyes Third Spot By 2030

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India Overtakes Japan To Become World’s Fourth-Largest Economy, Eyes Third Spot By 2030


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According to the government, India’s GDP is projected to reach USD 7.3 trillion by the end of the decade.

India also continues to be the fastest-growing major economy globally.

India also continues to be the fastest-growing major economy globally.

India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of USD 4.18 trillion and is on track to surpass Germany to claim the third position by 2030, the government said in a release on economic reforms.

According to the government, India’s GDP is projected to reach USD 7.3 trillion by the end of the decade, which would place it behind only the United States and China among the world’s largest economies.

India also continues to be the fastest-growing major economy globally. Real GDP expanded by 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of the 2025–26 fiscal year, accelerating from 7.8 per cent in the first quarter and 7.4 per cent in the final quarter of the previous fiscal. The government said this marked a six-quarter high, reflecting the economy’s resilience amid ongoing global trade uncertainties.

The release said domestic factors, particularly strong private consumption, were the main drivers of growth. It added that international agencies had echoed optimism about India’s outlook. The World Bank projected growth of 6.5 per cent in 2026, while Moody’s expects India to remain the fastest-growing G20 economy, with growth of 6.4 per cent in 2026 and 6.5 per cent in 2027.

The International Monetary Fund raised its projections to 6.6 per cent for 2025 and 6.2 per cent for 2026, while the OECD forecasts growth of 6.7 per cent in 2025 and 6.2 per cent in 2026. S&P projected growth of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and 6.7 per cent in the next, and the Asian Development Bank lifted its 2025 forecast to 7.2 per cent. Fitch has raised its FY26 projection to 7.4 per cent, citing stronger consumer demand.

The government said inflation remains below the lower tolerance threshold, unemployment is declining and export performance is improving. Financial conditions have stayed supportive, with strong credit flows to the commercial sector and firm demand, aided by strengthening urban consumption.

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FTSE 100 up amid calmer bonds but oil rises again

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FTSE 100 up amid calmer bonds but oil rises again



The FTSE 100 closed higher on Monday, recouping most of Friday’s hefty falls amid a calmer bond market and as Iran responded to the latest US peace proposal.

The FTSE 100 closed up 128.38 points, 1.3%, at 10,323.75. The FTSE 250 ended up 15.56 points, 0.1%, at 22,611.70, but the AIM All-Share fell 8.72 points, 1.1%, at 800.17.

Iran said it had responded to a new US proposal aimed at ending the war, adding that diplomatic exchanges continue despite Iranian media reports describing Washington’s demands as excessive, AFP reported.

Washington and Tehran have been swapping proposals in an effort to end the conflict, which the US and Israel launched on February 28, but they have held only a single round of talks despite a fragile ceasefire.

“As we announced yesterday, our concerns were conveyed to the American side,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told a news briefing, adding that exchanges were “continuing through the Pakistani mediator”.

Mr Baqaei defended Iran’s demands, including the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad and the lifting of long-standing sanctions.

“The points raised are Iranian demands that have been firmly defended by the Iranian negotiating team in every round of negotiations,” he said.

But with no signs of clear progress, the oil price remained inflated and volatile.

Brent crude for July delivery was trading at 110.80 dollars a barrel on Monday, up compared to 108.83 at the time of the equities close in London on Friday.

After a frantic Friday, the bond markets calmed, while sterling also rebounded as investors weighed the latest political developments.

The yield on UK 10-year gilts traded at 5.14% compared to 5.17% at the same time on Friday.

The pound traded at 1.3397 dollars on Monday afternoon, up from 1.3319 on Friday. Against the euro, sterling firmed to 1.1506 euros from 1.1462 on Friday.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer insisted he would not set out a timetable to leave No 10 as potential leadership challenger Andy Burnham vowed to “change Labour” if he is successful in his effort to return to Parliament.

The Prime Minister said he still wants to lead Labour into the next general election amid calls from within the party to set out a timetable for his exit.

Greater Manchester Mayor Mr Burnham hopes to be Labour’s candidate in the Makerfield by-election, which could provide him with a route back to the Commons to challenge for the party leadership and the keys to Downing Street.

Speaking to broadcasters in London, Sir Keir said he was not going to set out a timetable to stand down if Mr Burnham returns to Westminster.

He added: “I do want to fight the next election. Obviously, I recognise that after the local election results, the elections in Wales and Scotland as well, that the first task is obviously turning things around and making sure that my focus is in the right place.”

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said growth in the UK economy will be stronger this year than previously thought.

The IMF updated its growth projections a month after warning of a sharp slowdown caused by the global energy shock from the US-Iran war.

The influential financial body said it was now predicting UK gross domestic product to rise by 1% in 2026, higher than the 0.8% growth it was forecasting last month.

Responding to the latest report, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “The IMF upgrading its growth forecasts and backing our fiscal strategy is yet more proof that this Government has the right economic plan.”

In Europe, equity markets on Monday, the Cac 40 in Paris ended up 0.4%, and the Dax 40 in Frankfurt advanced 1.5%.

In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.7% lower.

On the FTSE 100, Whitbread closed up 2.3% after Corvex Management urged the Premier Inn owner to put itself up for sale, slamming its recently announced new five-year strategic plan.

In a damning letter to Whitbread management, the New York-based activist hedge fund called the status quo “untenable” and said that the need to pursue “meaningful strategic and structural reform had become unignorable”.

As a result, Corvex, which holds a stake of around 7% in Whitbread, said the only “credible” path to unlocking value at Whitbread is a sale of the company.

Anglo America fell 1.4% as it struck a deal to sell its portfolio of steelmaking coal mines in Australia to Dhilmar for up to 3.88 billion dollars in cash.

The London-based mining house said Dhilmar will pay the FTSE 100-listing 2.3 billion dollars upfront, and the deal has a price-linked earnout of up to 1.58 billion dollars.

Anglo American chief executive officer Duncan Wanblad said: “This agreement represents another major step in the simplification of our portfolio ahead of completing our merger with Teck. Through this transaction, we will complete our exit from steelmaking coal.”

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said: “This not only strengthens the balance sheet, ahead of its planned merger with Canada’s Teck Resources, but also keeps it exposed to future strength in coal prices.”

Capita shares rose 8.9% as the London-based outsourcing and business services company said adjusted revenue rose 2.9% on-year in the first four months of 2026, which it said was in line with expectations.

Looking ahead, Capita said it continues to expect a low to mid-single digit revenue climb in Capita Public Service and expects mid-teen revenue growth in its Pension Solutions business.

The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Centrica, up 7.70p at 196.95p, National Grid, up 43.50p at 1,231.50p, Pearson, up 37.00p at 1,136.50p, Relx, up 81.00p at 2,504.00p, and SSE, up 74.00p at 2,345.00p.

The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were 3i Group, down 128.00p at 2,082.00p, Airtel Africa, down 15.60p at 312.80p, Mondi, down 16.40p at 734.60p, Polar Capital Technology Trust, down 12.50p at 659.00p and Diploma, down 95.00p at 6,625.00p.

Tuesday’s global economic calendar has UK consumer and wholesale inflation figures, eurozone inflation data and the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Tuesday’s local corporate calendar has full-year results from business services group DCC, half-year numbers from supplier of specialised technical products and services, Doploma, and electricals retailer Currys.



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RBI sees no signs of excess credit risk, keeps countercyclical capital buffer inactive

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RBI sees no signs of excess credit risk, keeps countercyclical capital buffer inactive


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday decided against activating the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB), indicating that current financial and credit conditions do not warrant an additional capital requirement for banks, PTI reported.The central bank said the decision followed a review and empirical assessment of indicators used under the CCyB framework.“Based on review and empirical analysis of CCyB indicators, it has been decided that it is not necessary to activate CCyB at this point in time,” RBI said in a statement.Under the RBI (Commercial Banks – Prudential Norms on Capital Adequacy) Directions, 2025, the CCyB framework is activated when financial conditions indicate rising systemic risks linked to excessive credit growth.The framework primarily relies on the credit-to-GDP gap as a key indicator, along with supplementary metrics.According to the RBI, the CCyB mechanism is intended to serve two broad objectives.Firstly, it requires a bank to build up a buffer of capital in good times, which may be used to maintain the flow of credit to the real sector in difficult times.Secondly, it achieves the broader macro-prudential goal of restricting the banking sector from indiscriminate lending in the periods of excess credit growth that have often been associated with the building up of system-wide risk.The framework was introduced globally after the 2008 financial crisis as part of measures proposed by the Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS) under the Basel framework to strengthen financial system resilience.



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Ford boss hints at return of Fiesta as an electric model

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Ford boss hints at return of Fiesta as an electric model



The company has announced plans to build seven new models in Europe including a small electric hatchback.



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