Business
Will we see signs of economic growth in 2026?
Andrew SinclairEast of England political editor, Colchester
Andrew Sinclair/BBCOpinion polls suggest just over half of voters see the economy and the cost of living as the most important issues facing the country, while local chambers of commerce say business confidence is at its lowest level for some time.
How the government addresses these two key issues will dominate politics in 2026 and have a major bearing on whether Sir Keir Starmer is still Prime Minister by the end of the year.
Will we see clear signs of economic growth in 2026 after a year of flatlining, to give businesses confidence to invest and employ more people? Will the measures announced in November’s budget, such as raising the minimum wage, scrapping the two-child benefit cap and removing some of the so-called “green taxes” from energy bills, make voters feel better off?
Staff at food banks are on the frontline of the cost of living crisis, while the hospitality sector is one of the East’s main employers. How do they see the year ahead?
‘The new normal’
Andrew Sinclair/BBCThere are people arriving at Colchester’s Foodbank every few minutes. The charity’s 11 centres, which are dotted around the town, help as many as 3,000 people every month.
“The stories all come back to not having enough money to buy food and the choice between putting food on the table or heating the house” says co-director Nikki Ranson.
“We have schoolteachers coming in, we have police officers and nurses. We had a nurse not so long ago who always grabs all the overtime [she can get] but hadn’t been able to for a few weeks and was in dire straits.
“We’re supposed to be an emergency food service that is supposed to be a three-day food parcel a couple of times a year. We’ve become a normal. We’re now a go-to and that’s not right.”
According to the Trussell Trust anti-poverty charity, 332,500 food parcels were handed out across the East of England in the last year. This was a 5% decline on the previous year.
Ms Ranson says the changes announced in the budget will take a while to work through to people’s pockets and she says there’s still more to be done to help with benefits and wages. She expects the numbers using her food bank to stay the same this year.
A Treasury spokesman said: “We know there’s more to do to help families with the cost of living.
“That’s why the Chancellor took action at the Budget to freeze rail fares and prescription charges and will cut £150 off the average energy bill this year.”
The number of people using food banks by next Christmas will be an important indicator about whether cost of living pressures are easing.
‘Betrayed’
Andrew Sinclair/BBC“This year is going to be a fight for survival. If I make it to Christmas I’ll be impressed” says Matthew Alum who runs two pubs in the Colchester area.
He has recently had to hand back a third pub to the brewery because he could no longer afford to it.
“I feel betrayed by the budget. We were promised loads of support, and all we had was another rise in the minimum wage and another rise in business rates.”
He says every time the minimum wage goes up it adds £100,000 to his wage bill. He has already had to increase prices and is now thinking about reducing staff hours to help.
The increase in employers’ national insurance contributions, the phasing out of business rate relief and a rates revaluation has also added to his costs.
“When Labour came to power I was paying £445 a month, now it could be as much as £3,200 a month” he says.
The industry body Hospitality UK estimates that the average business will see its rates rise by 94% over the next three years.
Chief Executive Allen Simpson says: “Every high street is going to feel a massive hit and so will our communities when much-loved venues are forced to close”
Back at the Cricketers pub in Fordham Heath, near Colchester, Mr Allum says the Government must rethink the rates revaluation and cut VAT for hospitality.
“If a Labour MP comes to talk to me about what’s going on, I’ll talk to them – howeve,r until they’re prepared to have a proper conversation with me about what needs to be done i’ll be asking them to leave.
“This isn’t party politics… for me this is betrayal.”
A Treasury spokesman said the budget contained a £4.3bn support package for hospitality.
“This comes on top of our efforts to help more venues offer pavement drinks and put on one-off events, maintaining our cut to alcohol duty on draught pints, and capping Corporation Tax,” he said.
The High Street has been struggling for years but there are many in the hospitality industry who wonder if this year will be make or break.
Business
Bessent says Argentina peso bet was ‘homerun deal’
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said his risky US gamble on Argentina’s currency has paid off.
Bessent said American financial support had been repaid and the US no longer held any Argentine pesos in its exchange stabilisation fund.
The US had purchased the then-plunging currency last year in an effort to stave off further turmoil and boost the party of President Javier Milei, a key ally of President Donald Trump, in the run-up to national midterm elections.
The move sparked criticism from Democrats, who accused Bessent of risking taxpayer money on a country with a long history of financial turmoil.
In the end, Bessent said the manoeuvre had been a success.
“Stabilising a strong American ally – and making tens of millions in profit for Americans – is an America First homerun deal,” he wrote in an announcement on social media.
When the US moved to intervene in September, people were dumping the peso, mindful of the shocks they had experienced after previous elections and rattled by signs that Milei’s party might experience an upset in the mid-terms.
Bessent promised to do “what was needed” to stave off further drops in September. He announced a month later that the US had purchased pesos and agreed to extend a swap line to Argentina, allowing the country to exchange pesos for dollars.
The move helped to halt the falls in the currency, which saw further gains after Milei’s party clinched a landslide victory in the mid-term elections, though it has drifted lower more recently.
Argentina’s central bank said it settled the swap line in December. It ultimately traded just $2.5bn in pesos for dollars of a possible $20bn, according to a government report on deal.
The report said the US had also separately provided $872m in support involving reserves held at the IMF.
The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on that transaction.
“Getting your money back is a straight forward definition of a success,” said Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, even if he said tens of millions in profit was “small change” given the sums involved.
But he said big challenges continue to face the Argentine economy, given how much it spent last year from its reserves to prop up the currency.
“It’s been a short term success – Bessent got his money back,” he said. “I do remain worried that the Argentines are relying too heavily on the expectation that Secretary Bessent will ride to the rescue … and therefore aren’t showing enough urgency in their plans to rebuild their own reserves.”
Business
Housebuilders in focus as firms set to reveal figures amid sluggish market
Housebuilding giants will be centre stage next week as Persimmon, Vistry and Taylor Wimpey publish trading updates that are expected to offer a fresh snapshot of the UK housing market.
The updates will be closely watched by Government ministers, who have pledged to accelerate housebuilding, and by investors looking for signs of recovery and the Budget’s impact on the housing market as the UK heads into 2026.
Persimmon is due to publish a full-year trading statement on Tuesday, while Vistry will announce its fourth quarter trading statement on Wednesday and Taylor Wimpey a trading statement on Thursday.
UK housebuilding activity has remained in its deepest slump since the start of the pandemic, while the wider construction sector has been in contraction for a year, according to the latest S&P Global UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) published on Wednesday.
The index rose slightly to 40.1 in December from 39.4 in November, remaining well below the 50-point level that signals growth, marking the 12th consecutive month of declining activity.
Survey respondents cited fragile confidence, weak demand and clients delaying decisions ahead of the autumn budget.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, said Persimmon “has been hamstrung by the wider factors over which it has little influence, including but not limited to a faltering domestic economy”.
However, Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighted that Persimmon’s homes are typically valued around 15% below the new-build national average, which “offers some resilience to ride current market challenges” and should provide some relief on building cost pressures.
Meanwhile Vistry, formerly Bovis Homes, has benefited from supportive government policy towards affordable housing, with average weekly sales rates rising by 11% between July and early November compared to the previous year, according to Hargreaves Lansdown.
On Friday, figures release by HMRC revealed UK house sales were 8% higher in November than a year earlier, with around 100,350 homes changing hands, an indication of some optimism in the market.
Jason Tebb, president of OnTheMarket, said: “With the budget done and dusted, uncertainty at least has been removed and those who put their moves on pause are returning to the market, encouraged by lower mortgage rates from some of the big lenders, with others expected to follow.
“As January progresses, well-priced homes continue to attract interest.”
Business
US job creation in 2025 slows to weakest since Covid
The number of jobs created in the US grew only modestly in December, as a weak year for the employment market in the world’s largest economy drew to a close.
Employers added 50,000 jobs in the final month of 2025, according to Labor Department data, which was fewer than expected. But the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4%.
Job gains last year were the smallest since 2020, when the Covid pandemic led to widespread cuts.
Businesses have been operating in an environment marked by US President Donald Trump’s dramatic policy changes, including tariffs, an immigration crackdown and cuts to government spending.
The US economy has held up in the face of these shifts, growing at an annual rate of 4.3% over the three months to September.
But the expansion – driven by steady consumer spending and a growth in exports – has not been accompanied by significant job creation.
On average, the US added just 49,000 roles per month in 2025, down from an estimated gain of two million a month the year before.
The Labor Department said the US also added 76,000 fewer new positions in October and November than previously estimated.
Retailers and manufacturers were among the sectors reporting losses last month, which were offset by hiring at health care employers, bars and restaurants.
The data underscores the mixed dynamics facing job-seekers in the US, where hiring has cooled markedly over the last year but fears of mass layoffs have not materialised.
The US Federal Reserve central bank has responded to the slowdown by cutting its key lending rate in hopes of giving the economy a boost, despite concerns that inflation is still bubbling.
But the central bank is divided about how much lower borrowing costs should go.
Analysts said the latest figures – which showed the jobless rate recovering to the 4.4% level where it stood in September – would do little to resolve those debates.
“Today’s report confirms what we think has been evident for some time—the labor market is no longer working in favour of job seekers,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
But she added: “Until the data provide a clearer direction, a divided Fed is likely to stay that way. Lower rates are likely coming this year, but the markets may have to be patient.”
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