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Financial investment and capital gains | The Express Tribune

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Financial investment and capital gains | The Express Tribune


Short-term capital gains do not bode well for developing economy where millions are underemployed or unemployed


LAHORE:

The current macroeconomic framework promotes a private debt financed consumption boom through fresh borrowing at a low policy rate. People have increased consumption by borrowing through commercial banks. They have been buying consumer durable goods for the last couple of years.

This consumption is also supported by a boom in the stock market as the PSX index is hovering around 176,000. The index has jumped around 52% in calendar year 2025.

The increase in stock prices creates a feeling among investors and they perceive themselves as if they are rich. On this basis, they increase consumption. This is an indirect way to increase consumption demand in the economy where rising asset prices play a pivotal role. In the economic jargon, this is known as the wealth effect.

Financial capitalists invest in real estate, stock market and gold. All these fall in the category of financial investments. These investments involve a change of ownership in the secondary market. Considering the current stagnancy of the real estate market, wealthy individuals have also parked their capital in gold in the last couple of years to get quick returns.

Gold prices are at an all-time high of Rs460,000 per tola. The high international prices of gold have made these returns possible for the wealthy investors. In the jargon, these returns are known as capital gains.

Capital gains attract financial investments to a great extent. If capital gains are high, they reduce the acquisition cost of financial assets. The reduction in acquisition cost makes these investments quite attractive for financial investors/capitalists. Furthermore, entry and exit from the financial markets are relatively easy as they are quite organised and orderly.

On the other hand, capital gains increase the replacement cost of real investment. In simple words, it means that new real investment becomes costly. Here, the real investment means investment in equipment, machinery, tools and fixtures, which increases the productive capacity of the economy.

In addition, real investments cannot be recouped easily. For instance, a garment manufacturer cannot exit his business with ease as he has to sell his machines, tools and fixtures and this process takes a considerable period of time. If he sells them, it will depreciate their value. Therefore, capital gains have a depressing effect on real investments.

Financial assets also attract portfolio investments from abroad. Foreign institutional investors chase low-yielding stocks in order to book high capital gains. If shares are valued low at the stock market, these financial investors buy stocks which would re-rate their valuations. This would perpetuate the boom at the stock market.

Capital gains have a positive impact on the financial account of balance of payments (BOP). However, they have a negative impact on the current account balance owing to higher imports, which contribute to current account deficit.

On the one hand, capital gains would increase consumption, which will increase the aggregate demand. On the other hand, capital gains would decrease real investment and turn the current account balance into a deficit by attracting capital inflows from abroad in the form of portfolio investment. This would reduce the aggregate demand.

However, the economy follows a consumption-led regime, where the positive effect of consumption outweighs the negative effects of real investment and capital inflows.

In short, financial investors/capitalists have been calling the shots in this globalised world. High capital gains divert investment away from the real investment. These short-term gains are obtained at the cost of long-term loss, ie, productive capacity. This situation does not bode well for a developing economy where teeming millions are either underemployed or unemployed.

The writer is an independent economist and authored a book: Pakistan’s Structural Economic Problems in the era of Financial Globalisation



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Will This Years Budget Be Presented On Sunday? CCPA Proposes February 1 Date For Union Budget 2026

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Will This Years Budget Be Presented On Sunday? CCPA Proposes February 1 Date For Union Budget 2026


New Delhi: The Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs (CCPA) on Wednesday proposed presenting the Union Budget for 2026–27 on February 1, even though the date falls on a Sunday. 

If approved, this would mark a rare instance in recent years of the Budget being tabled on a weekend, as the government sticks to its February 1 timeline to ensure timely implementation of budget proposals from the start of the financial year, as per media reports.

The Budget Session will begin on January 28 with the President’s address to a joint sitting of both Houses of Parliament. The Economic Survey, which reviews the state of the economy, will be tabled in Parliament on January 29, according to reports.

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be presenting her ninth consecutive Union Budget, making it the 88th Budget since India’s Independence. Since 2017, the Union Budget has been presented at 11 am on February 1, after the government advanced the date from the earlier tradition of February 28.

This change was introduced during the tenure of former finance minister late Arun Jaitley to allow faster implementation of budget proposals from the start of the financial year.

Presenting the Budget on a weekend is not entirely new. Sitharaman had presented the Union Budget 2025 on a Saturday.

Before that, late Arun Jaitley presented the Union Budgets of 2015 and 2016 on February 28, which also fell on Saturdays.

With this Budget, Sitharaman will also make history by becoming the first finance minister to present nine consecutive Union Budgets. This achievement places her close to the record held by former Prime Minister Morarji Desai, who presented a total of 10 Budgets across two separate tenures.

Among other recent finance ministers, P Chidambaram presented nine Budgets, while Pranab Mukherjee presented eight during their time in office.

FM Sitharaman was appointed India’s first full-time woman finance minister in 2019 after Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to power for a second term.

Finance Minister Sitharaman continued to hold the finance portfolio after the Modi-led government secured a third consecutive term in 2024.



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Trump calls for US military spending to rise more than 50% to $1.5tn

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Trump calls for US military spending to rise more than 50% to .5tn


President Donald Trump has called for US defence spending to be increased to $1.5tn (£1.1tn) in 2027 for what he called “these very troubled and dangerous times”.

That would be more than 50% higher than this year’s $901bn budget, which was approved by Congress in December.

“This will allow us to build the “Dream Military” that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe,” Trump said on social media on Wednesday.

In separate posts, the president said he would crack down on payouts to bosses and shareholders of major US defence contractors unless the firms speed up deliveries of armaments and build new manufacturing plants.

Shares in major US defence equipment makers Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon rose by more than 5% in extended trading in New York trade after Trump made the announcements.

Economists have previously warned that the gap between US spending and its income has reached unsustainable levels.

But Trump said Washington can “easily hit” his proposed $1.5tn defence budget thanks to money being brought in by tariffs.

Trump has been pushing for higher defence spending by the US and its allies since his first term in the White House.

He said in another post on Wednesday that military equipment is not being made quickly enough and urged companies to build new and modern plants.

Defence companies are issuing “massive” payouts to shareholders and stock buybacks at the expense of investing into production, Trump said. He also criticised the “exorbitant” pay packages of executives at arms manufacturers.

“No Executive should be allowed to make in excess of $5 Million Dollars which, as high as it sounds, is a mere fraction of what they are making now.”

In a separate post, Trump singled out Raytheon, saying it was the “least responsive” to America’s defence needs and the slowest to increase production.

“Either Raytheon steps up and starts investing in more upfront Investment like Plants and Equipment, or they will no longer be doing business with the Department of War,” Trump wrote in a separate post.

The BBC has contacted Raytheon for comment.

Trump’s call for much higher defence spending comes as geo-political tensions have increased around the world.

On Wednesday, the US military captured a Russian-flagged oil tanker suspected to have violated US sanctions.

It came after US forces seized Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro at the weekend and took him to America to face drug trafficking charges.

In December, China held military drills around Taiwan simulating the seizure and blockade of the island’s key areas, as a warning against “separatist forces”.

Taiwan’s push to ramp up its defence this year has also angered Beijing, which claims the self-ruled island as its territory.



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Don’t Underestimate India: How The World’s Fastest-Rising Economy Left UK & Japan Behind

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Don’t Underestimate India: How The World’s Fastest-Rising Economy Left UK & Japan Behind


New Delhi: India’s economy is continuing its rapid ascent on the global stage. According to Goldman Sachs, the country’s economic expansion is expected to remain stable in the fiscal year 2027. The investment bank projects India’s real GDP growth at 6.8 percent in FY27, slightly down from 7.3 percent in FY26.

The global brokerage firm highlighted that policy measures supporting domestic demand have strengthened the economy. In 2025, India offered income tax relief, simplified the Goods and Services Tax (GST), focussed on increasing liquidity and the Reserve Bank of India cut the repo rate by a total of 125 basis points to encourage consumption.

India Surpasses The UK In 2021

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In 2021, India surpassed the United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth-largest economy, a milestone that reflected decades of steady growth. In the last 25 years, the country grew on average 6.4 percent a year, a bit less than China’s 8 percent.

However, in recent years, India has been catching up fast. Last year, it moved past Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Other Forecasts And Projections

In a report released last Friday, SBI Mutual Fund projected that India’s nominal GDP growth for FY26-27 could reach around 11 percent, while real GDP growth may rise to approximately 7.2 percent.

The report said continued policy reforms and the growing demand for higher-quality and premium products among Indian consumers are expected to support economic expansion.

Global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions could pose challenges, the report added. Separately, Indian Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) estimated on Tuesday that India’s economy may grow by 6.9 percent in FY27, slightly lower than the projected 7.4 percent growth for FY26.



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