The wild-card round of the 2025 NFL playoffs is heading toward completion, and the divisional-round matchups are taking shape. The NFC pairings are set, with the San Francisco 49ers set to play the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams heading to play the Chicago Bears.

To look ahead at these games, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Seahawks, who didn’t play this week, Brady Henderson provided some info from what they did during the bye week.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championship games, and we also provided projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and opening lines.

Let’s start with the 49ers against the Seahawks.

Jump to a matchup:
SF-SEA | LAR-CHI

NFC

When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI projection: SEA, 61.3%

What we learned about the 49ers in the wild-card round: Common sense would suggest that a team playing without so many of its biggest stars — edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and, as of Sunday, tight end George Kittle — would eventually run out of the magic that’s defined their unlikely postseason run. Sunday was not that day. Despite another devastating injury to a team leader, these Niners continue to defy conventional wisdom and carve a path few could have foreseen before the season. Sunday’s lesson was a familiar one — as long as these Niners get to keep playing, it’s unwise to count them out. — Nick Wagoner

What the Seahawks did during their bye week: It was hardly an off week for the Seahawks. They practiced outside in the elements on Wednesday and Thursday — in a light rain Wednesday and with temperatures in the low 40s and the wind blowing both days — as Mike Macdonald tried to get his team accustomed to playing in the kind of weather the Seahawks might get in the playoffs. “We’re not treating it like a regular-season bye week where guys are flying to Mexico and Hawaii and enjoying their time,” Pro Bowl defensive lineman Leonard Williams said. “I think we really celebrated that win against the Niners, but immediately that next day you could tell guys were like, ‘Hey, the job is not done. We’ve got a lot of work to do.'” — Brady Henderson

Why the 49ers will win: Because Sam Darnold is not the same player he was at the beginning of the season. Ten weeks into the season, the Seahawks’ quarterback led the NFL in QBR (77.8). But in Week 11, the Seahawks lost to the Rams and from that moment forward, Darnold ranked 27th (36.9) in the same metric! The 49ers will not fall into the trap other teams have against Seattle: matching the Seahawks’ big personnel with base defensive personnel. San Francisco is a nickel-heavy team, which will either invite Seattle to run or force Darnold into less favorable passing situations. And for all that went wrong in the 49ers’ season-finale loss in Week 18, they still held the Seahawks to just 13 points.

Giving Kyle Shanahan two weeks to study film after that loss might be enough for him to find some new ways to beat that seemingly-impenetrable Mike Macdonald defense. And the 49ers have a good passing game; they’ve averaged 0.17 EPA per dropback, which ranked sixth best among all teams and fifth best among those that made the playoffs. With All-Pro offensive tackle Trent Williams expected to play (he missed the Week 18 matchup), the 49ers definitely have a chance here.

Why the Seahawks will win: They proved it Week 18 in the battle for the No. 1 seed. Seattle shut down the 49ers offense with their ferocious defense, holding San Francisco to only three points. It was hardly an aberration: Seattle has the best defense in football and the stats are undeniable. No. 1 in EPA allowed per play. No. 1 in opponent’s success rate. And one of my favorites: Minus-30 first downs over expectation allowed on opponent runs according to NFL Next Gen Stats, doubling up the next-best team in the regular season (the Houston Texans at minus-15).

But there’s another reason for Seahawks optimism. While their passing game has not been the same in the second half of the season, they can offset that with a more reliable rushing attack against a 49ers’ defense that is hurting at linebacker. Both Fred Warner and Tatum Bethune are out, and Dee Winters missed San Francisco’s wild card game, too. — Walder

Matchup background: These teams met two weeks ago in the regular-season finale at Levi’s Stadium, with the Seahawks beating the 49ers 13-3 to clinch the NFC West and homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The 49ers defeated Seattle 17-13 in the season opener at Lumen Field, with San Francisco forcing a late turnover to hold on. These franchises have split two previous playoff matchups, with Seattle winning the 2013 NFC Championship Game and the 49ers knocking out the Seahawks in the 2022 wild-card round. — ESPN

Stat to know: Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers this season (14 interceptions, six fumbles lost). This is the first time dating to 1978 that a player on a No. 1-seeded team has led the league in turnovers. — ESPN Research

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Purdy finds McCaffrey for TD to put 49ers ahead late

Brock Purdy throws a touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey to give the 49ers the lead late in the fourth quarter vs. the Eagles.

When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI projection: LAR, 61.2%

What we learned about the Rams in the wild-card round: The world once again saw why the Rams feel so confident in those got-to-have-it situations due to having Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Stafford led the Rams on two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against the Panthers, including one with 38 seconds left. “That’s why we’re advancing, because of his leadership,” Rams head coach Sean McVay said. Stafford now has four career game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game. According to ESPN Research, the only quarterback with more since Stafford joined the Rams in 2021 is Patrick Mahomes (6). — Sarah Barshop

What we learned about the Bears in the wild-card round: The Bears continue to be one of the best second-half teams in the NFL. After trailing Green Bay 21-3 at halftime, Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to come from behind and beat the Packers. But as they’ve been saying all season, the Bears need to start faster on both sides of the ball. Chicago’s defense pressured Packers QB Jordan Love on only 18% of his dropbacks in the first half (versus 32% in the second half, including four times on the Packers’ last drive). Caleb Williams and the offense struggled until the Bears quarterback turned his deep-ball passing around in the second half, when he was 7-of-13 for 166 yards and a touchdown on passes of 15 or more air yards. In the first half, Williams was 2-for-5 for 40 yards and interception on such throws. — Courtney Cronin

Why the Rams will win: The Rams are arguably the best team in football — and the Bears are not. Don’t get me wrong, Chicago deserves plenty of credit for its remarkable season, but the numbers clearly favor Los Angeles. This is the team ranked second in EPA per play on offense, has the MVP favorite at quarterback, the best wide receiver in football and a solid offensive line that will give Stafford all day to throw against the Bears’ lacking pass rush.

The Bears have a strong running game, and we’ve certainly seen Williams have incredible moments. But in terms of EPA per play, the Rams have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Plus, we could argue that we didn’t see the true version of the Rams in the wild-card round after Stafford suffered an early finger injury (but still managed to orchestrate a comeback, anyway). And if wide receiver Puka Nacua had not had an incredibly uncharacteristic drop on what surely would have been a touchdown at the end of the first half, the Rams might have beaten the Panthers more comfortably.

And while the Rams’ defense is not perfect, each of the major players on defensive line — Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske and Poona Ford — can create mayhem for their opponents.

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Recapping the Bears’ comeback win over Packers

Kimberely A. Martin recaps the performance of Caleb Williams and the Bears against the Packers.

Why the Bears will win: They can never be ruled out. Chicago added to its season of improbable victories with an incredible come-from-behind win over the Packers in which the Bears entered the fourth quarter down 15 points and exited it up four. In between, we witnessed the Bears at their absolute best. Williams made the throw of a lifetime on fourth-and-8 to keep their hopes alive and coach Ben Johnson used an imbalanced line to sell the screen of a screen-and-go, fooling the Packers’ secondary and freeing DJ Moore for a touchdown.

But what makes Chicago so threatening is that it won despite not even being the best version of itself. In the regular season, the Bears averaged a 48% success rate on designed runs (third best), but that number dropped to 28% against Green Bay. And even in victory, Williams had a 28% off-target rate and a minus-14% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) — both solidly worse than his regular-season marks. They’ll be home underdogs against the Rams and Los Angeles’ offense should have a serious advantage over the Bears’ defense. But the Bears can generate turnovers, forcing a league-high 33 in the regular season. They’ll need more of that turnover variance to go their way against the Rams, but it’s doable. — Walder

Matchup background: The Rams and Bears did not play this season, with their most recent matchup coming in Week 4 of the 2024 season. Chicago prevailed 24-18 at Soldier Field, breaking a three-game losing streak to Los Angeles. This is only the third postseason matchup between these franchises and the first in 40 years. The Bears defeated the Rams 24-0 in the 1985 NFC Championship Game en route to the Super Bowl XX title, which is Chicago’s most recent NFL championship. — ESPN

Stat to know: After being sacked two or more times in 15 games last season, Williams has been sacked one or zero times in 11 games in 2025 (including Saturday’s playoff victory). The Rams had 47 sacks in the regular season and added two more in their wild-card win over Carolina. — ESPN Research