Sports
The NFC playoff bracket is set: Reasons for optimism for the Seahawks, 49ers, Bears and Rams
The wild-card round of the 2025 NFL playoffs is heading toward completion, and the divisional-round matchups are taking shape. The NFC pairings are set, with the San Francisco 49ers set to play the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams heading to play the Chicago Bears.
To look ahead at these games, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Seahawks, who didn’t play this week, Brady Henderson provided some info from what they did during the bye week.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championship games, and we also provided projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and opening lines.
Let’s start with the 49ers against the Seahawks.
Jump to a matchup:
SF-SEA | LAR-CHI
NFC
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When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI projection: SEA, 61.3%
What we learned about the 49ers in the wild-card round: Common sense would suggest that a team playing without so many of its biggest stars — edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and, as of Sunday, tight end George Kittle — would eventually run out of the magic that’s defined their unlikely postseason run. Sunday was not that day. Despite another devastating injury to a team leader, these Niners continue to defy conventional wisdom and carve a path few could have foreseen before the season. Sunday’s lesson was a familiar one — as long as these Niners get to keep playing, it’s unwise to count them out. — Nick Wagoner
What the Seahawks did during their bye week: It was hardly an off week for the Seahawks. They practiced outside in the elements on Wednesday and Thursday — in a light rain Wednesday and with temperatures in the low 40s and the wind blowing both days — as Mike Macdonald tried to get his team accustomed to playing in the kind of weather the Seahawks might get in the playoffs. “We’re not treating it like a regular-season bye week where guys are flying to Mexico and Hawaii and enjoying their time,” Pro Bowl defensive lineman Leonard Williams said. “I think we really celebrated that win against the Niners, but immediately that next day you could tell guys were like, ‘Hey, the job is not done. We’ve got a lot of work to do.'” — Brady Henderson
Why the 49ers will win: Because Sam Darnold is not the same player he was at the beginning of the season. Ten weeks into the season, the Seahawks’ quarterback led the NFL in QBR (77.8). But in Week 11, the Seahawks lost to the Rams and from that moment forward, Darnold ranked 27th (36.9) in the same metric! The 49ers will not fall into the trap other teams have against Seattle: matching the Seahawks’ big personnel with base defensive personnel. San Francisco is a nickel-heavy team, which will either invite Seattle to run or force Darnold into less favorable passing situations. And for all that went wrong in the 49ers’ season-finale loss in Week 18, they still held the Seahawks to just 13 points.
Giving Kyle Shanahan two weeks to study film after that loss might be enough for him to find some new ways to beat that seemingly-impenetrable Mike Macdonald defense. And the 49ers have a good passing game; they’ve averaged 0.17 EPA per dropback, which ranked sixth best among all teams and fifth best among those that made the playoffs. With All-Pro offensive tackle Trent Williams expected to play (he missed the Week 18 matchup), the 49ers definitely have a chance here.
Why the Seahawks will win: They proved it Week 18 in the battle for the No. 1 seed. Seattle shut down the 49ers offense with their ferocious defense, holding San Francisco to only three points. It was hardly an aberration: Seattle has the best defense in football and the stats are undeniable. No. 1 in EPA allowed per play. No. 1 in opponent’s success rate. And one of my favorites: Minus-30 first downs over expectation allowed on opponent runs according to NFL Next Gen Stats, doubling up the next-best team in the regular season (the Houston Texans at minus-15).
But there’s another reason for Seahawks optimism. While their passing game has not been the same in the second half of the season, they can offset that with a more reliable rushing attack against a 49ers’ defense that is hurting at linebacker. Both Fred Warner and Tatum Bethune are out, and Dee Winters missed San Francisco’s wild card game, too. — Walder
Matchup background: These teams met two weeks ago in the regular-season finale at Levi’s Stadium, with the Seahawks beating the 49ers 13-3 to clinch the NFC West and homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The 49ers defeated Seattle 17-13 in the season opener at Lumen Field, with San Francisco forcing a late turnover to hold on. These franchises have split two previous playoff matchups, with Seattle winning the 2013 NFC Championship Game and the 49ers knocking out the Seahawks in the 2022 wild-card round. — ESPN
Stat to know: Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers this season (14 interceptions, six fumbles lost). This is the first time dating to 1978 that a player on a No. 1-seeded team has led the league in turnovers. — ESPN Research
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Purdy finds McCaffrey for TD to put 49ers ahead late
Brock Purdy throws a touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey to give the 49ers the lead late in the fourth quarter vs. the Eagles.
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When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI projection: LAR, 61.2%
What we learned about the Rams in the wild-card round: The world once again saw why the Rams feel so confident in those got-to-have-it situations due to having Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Stafford led the Rams on two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against the Panthers, including one with 38 seconds left. “That’s why we’re advancing, because of his leadership,” Rams head coach Sean McVay said. Stafford now has four career game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game. According to ESPN Research, the only quarterback with more since Stafford joined the Rams in 2021 is Patrick Mahomes (6). — Sarah Barshop
What we learned about the Bears in the wild-card round: The Bears continue to be one of the best second-half teams in the NFL. After trailing Green Bay 21-3 at halftime, Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to come from behind and beat the Packers. But as they’ve been saying all season, the Bears need to start faster on both sides of the ball. Chicago’s defense pressured Packers QB Jordan Love on only 18% of his dropbacks in the first half (versus 32% in the second half, including four times on the Packers’ last drive). Caleb Williams and the offense struggled until the Bears quarterback turned his deep-ball passing around in the second half, when he was 7-of-13 for 166 yards and a touchdown on passes of 15 or more air yards. In the first half, Williams was 2-for-5 for 40 yards and interception on such throws. — Courtney Cronin
Why the Rams will win: The Rams are arguably the best team in football — and the Bears are not. Don’t get me wrong, Chicago deserves plenty of credit for its remarkable season, but the numbers clearly favor Los Angeles. This is the team ranked second in EPA per play on offense, has the MVP favorite at quarterback, the best wide receiver in football and a solid offensive line that will give Stafford all day to throw against the Bears’ lacking pass rush.
The Bears have a strong running game, and we’ve certainly seen Williams have incredible moments. But in terms of EPA per play, the Rams have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Plus, we could argue that we didn’t see the true version of the Rams in the wild-card round after Stafford suffered an early finger injury (but still managed to orchestrate a comeback, anyway). And if wide receiver Puka Nacua had not had an incredibly uncharacteristic drop on what surely would have been a touchdown at the end of the first half, the Rams might have beaten the Panthers more comfortably.
And while the Rams’ defense is not perfect, each of the major players on defensive line — Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske and Poona Ford — can create mayhem for their opponents.
1:04
Recapping the Bears’ comeback win over Packers
Kimberely A. Martin recaps the performance of Caleb Williams and the Bears against the Packers.
Why the Bears will win: They can never be ruled out. Chicago added to its season of improbable victories with an incredible come-from-behind win over the Packers in which the Bears entered the fourth quarter down 15 points and exited it up four. In between, we witnessed the Bears at their absolute best. Williams made the throw of a lifetime on fourth-and-8 to keep their hopes alive and coach Ben Johnson used an imbalanced line to sell the screen of a screen-and-go, fooling the Packers’ secondary and freeing DJ Moore for a touchdown.
But what makes Chicago so threatening is that it won despite not even being the best version of itself. In the regular season, the Bears averaged a 48% success rate on designed runs (third best), but that number dropped to 28% against Green Bay. And even in victory, Williams had a 28% off-target rate and a minus-14% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) — both solidly worse than his regular-season marks. They’ll be home underdogs against the Rams and Los Angeles’ offense should have a serious advantage over the Bears’ defense. But the Bears can generate turnovers, forcing a league-high 33 in the regular season. They’ll need more of that turnover variance to go their way against the Rams, but it’s doable. — Walder
Matchup background: The Rams and Bears did not play this season, with their most recent matchup coming in Week 4 of the 2024 season. Chicago prevailed 24-18 at Soldier Field, breaking a three-game losing streak to Los Angeles. This is only the third postseason matchup between these franchises and the first in 40 years. The Bears defeated the Rams 24-0 in the 1985 NFC Championship Game en route to the Super Bowl XX title, which is Chicago’s most recent NFL championship. — ESPN
Stat to know: After being sacked two or more times in 15 games last season, Williams has been sacked one or zero times in 11 games in 2025 (including Saturday’s playoff victory). The Rams had 47 sacks in the regular season and added two more in their wild-card win over Carolina. — ESPN Research
Sports
Bayern could effectively end Dortmund’s season with Klassiker win
The German word of the week in the Bundesliga ahead of Saturday’s showdown (live at 12:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN+) is not the marketing invention der Klassiker but rather die Aufholjagd (literally, “the hunt to pursue”).
There are in all honesty, very few, even here in the bustling Ruhrpott this week, who believe Borussia Dortmund are likely to make up nine points on leaders Bayern Munich. With the goal difference equation stacked in favor of the Rekordmeister, that is the challenge facing BVB with only 11 games left. But a head-to-head Gipfeltreffen (summit meeting) offers a chance for a new perspective.
Dortmund have spent much of this season under Niko Kovac defying stereotypes: showing a more stable face, grinding out wins, pressing better, reemerging as clearly the second-best team in the Bundesrepublik.
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But on Wednesday night in Bergamo, the old problems came back to haunt die Schwarz-Gelben, and the team collectively had to Lehrgeld zahlen (literally pay up as a result of being taught a painful lesson) after being eliminated by Atalanta in their knockout round playoff tie in the UEFA Champions League.
Whether Dortmund can translate those lessons — among them, don’t start a big match so passively and Gregor Kobel, don’t give the ball to the opposition with extra time looming — into something successful against a team of Bayern’s sheer quality, is another matter.
Bayern are almost certain to break the Bundesliga’s single-season goal-scoring record (they have 85 goals and need 17 more, a mere bagatelle surely?) Harry Kane requires 14 between now and mid-May to surpass Robert Lewandowski‘s 2020-21 benchmark of 41 league goals. The Englishman has registered a Doppelpack (double) in each of his past three league matches and if he stays fit, you would not bet against him becoming the most goal-rich winner of the Torjägerkanone award ever.
With Michael Olise scoring freely and more importantly, assisting others, and Luis Díaz posing significant problems for opposing sides, Bayern win most games by overwhelming and obliterating. Nobody does it better.
There is, however, a slight glass-jaw quality defensively, which has been evident since January, with only one Bundesliga clean sheet so far this calendar year.
Augsburg for example, have gone to the Allianz Arena and beaten them, Hoffenheim caused them bother even while down to 10 men, and last week Eintracht Frankfurt scored a couple of late goals that Bayern fans, anticipating an easy win, will have seen as nervig (irritating).
At the time of writing, it is unclear who will stand between the posts for the Rekordmeister. Manuel Neuer has been working all week in a bid to get back into the side after sustaining a calf muscle injury at the Weserstadion nearly two weeks ago.
However, Bayern have faith in 22-year-old understudy Jonas Urbig, who looks ever more like the future custodian. Urbig stumbled in the Augsburg game, but his performances have ranged mostly from good to excellent.
If there are any doubts about Neuer’s fitness, it would seem foolish — given the eight-point difference at the top and crunch Champions League matches ahead — to take a chance. Alphonso Davies is out for the foreseeable future with a muscle fiber injury, but with Konrad Laimer available again, Vincent Kompany has plenty of squad depth in the fullback positions with Josip Stanisic and Hiroki Ito.
It almost seems unfair to Dortmund, given the colossal task that they face on Saturday, that right wing back Julian Ryerson is suspended. The Norwegian, once viewed as an honest journeyman, has transformed himself into one of the most valuable players in Kovac’s squad.
Diligent in normal play, Ryerson’s deliveries from open or set play situations can be devilish and he recently crafted all four goals in the same game against Mainz. Yan Couto, more adventurous going forward but less secure defensively, must fulfill that role against Bayern.
At least Nico Schlotterbeck will return to anchor the Dreierkette (back three) in front of Kobel, whose 11 clean sheets top the Bundesliga goalkeeping charts. BVB will require energy and guile in abundance from Marcel Sabitzer and Felix Nmecha in midfield against the formidable duo of Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic.
Saturday is due to be another day of Verkehrschaos in Dortmund and there have been a few recently. This one is due to industrial action by the trade union, Verdi, knocking out the Stadtbahn (city train/tram service) and bus lines. Fans have been urged to walk the 40 minutes from the Stadtzentrum (city center) to the Signal Iduna Park.
Thereafter, there’s a very real danger that in 90 minutes, Dortmund’s season could effectively disappear in a puff of smoke. Already out of the Champions League and the DFB-Pokal, defeat in the Klassiker would make an Aufholjagd unthinkable.
Sports
Real face City, PSG draw Chelsea | The Express Tribune
PARIS:
Real Madrid and Manchester City will face off in a Champions League knockout tie for the fifth season running after being drawn Friday to play each other in the last 16, while reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain will take on Chelsea.
The Spanish giants, record 15-time European champions, will host City in the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu next month before travelling to England for the return the following week.
The clubs have already played each other this season, with Pep Guardiola’s City winning 2-1 in Madrid in December during the league phase, in which the Premier League club finished eighth and Real ninth.
That allowed City, Champions League winners in 2023, to advance straight to the last 16 while Madrid had to come through the knockout phase play-offs, in which they beat Benfica 3-1 on aggregate.
This is the eighth season in which the teams have played each other since 2012. Real beat City in the knockout phase play-offs last season, and in the quarter-finals on the way to winning the trophy in 2024. They also emerged victorious in the semi-finals in 2022 with City winning at the same stage the following year.
PSG will be at home to Chelsea in the first leg after qualifying for this stage with a 5-4 aggregate win over Ligue 1 rivals Monaco in the play-offs. Chelsea progressed straight to the last 16 after finishing sixth in the league phase.
The sides played each other in the knockout stages in three consecutive years from 2014 to 2016, with Chelsea winning the first of those confrontations in the quarter-finals and PSG triumphing in the last 16 in the following two.
Their last encounter came in July’s Club World Cup final in the United States, when Chelsea won 3-0 against last season’s European champions.
Chelsea have been coached since January by Liam Rosenior, who had previously come up against PSG in Ligue 1 as coach of Strasbourg.
Meanwhile, Newcastle United will take on Barcelona with the first leg at St James’ Park — the Spanish side won 2-1 there during the league phase in September.
There is a record total of six English clubs in the last 16. Liverpool will have a rematch against Galatasaray, the Turkish giants having defeated the Anfield club 1-0 in September in the league phase.
Arsenal will come up against Bayer Leverkusen and Tottenham Hotspur were drawn to play Atletico Madrid.
German champions Bayern Munich will play Atalanta, the sole Italian club left in the competition, while Norwegian upstarts Bodo/Glimt’s reward for knocking out Inter Milan is a last-16 tie against Sporting of Portugal.
The first legs will take place on March 10 and 11, with the second legs a week later. The teams who qualified directly for this stage after finishing in the top eight in the league phase will all be at home in the return matches.
This season’s Champions League final will take place at the Puskas Arena in Budapest on May 30.
Sports
The 2026 men’s college basketball coaching carousel guide
“Is this going to be a busy cycle?”
It’s the question most asked of industry insiders around this time every year, as athletic directors, coaches, search firms and agents gear up for the college basketball coaching carousel. Normally, it’s easy to tell which direction the cycle is heading. Last year, there were five high-major programs already open when this story appeared, and 15 power-conference jobs changed hands when the carousel finally stopped spinning.
Could we match that number this season? Kansas State is the only high-major job open as things stand, with Jerome Tang’s ousting failing to jump-start an early string of firings thus far.
There are more than a dozen high-major jobs on the hot seat, but administrations are facing a similar quandary to last season: give their embattled head coach more money to build a roster or pay out the rest of that coach’s contract and start anew? Several of the coaches mentioned below have a substantial amount of money remaining on their deals, and schools will be hesitant to pay those buyouts. Word is already starting to trickle out from some schools that are instead opting to raise their men’s basketball NIL budget and giving their coach one more season to turn things around. But some schools are also hoping to raise their NIL budget — to give to a new coach.
There’s also the question of what type of hiring cycle this will be. Last year, the power-conference carousel featured a mix of lateral moves, mid-major names taking a jump, NBA assistants dropping into college and the occasional high-major assistant getting an opportunity. If more than 10 power-conference programs open up again, it will be interesting to see which bucket is the most prevalent.
To prepare you for the next two months of coaching machinations and the accompanying rumors — of which there will be many — let’s take a look at the biggest jobs and names to watch on the 2026 men’s college basketball carousel.
Jump to a section:
Jobs already open | Jobs that could open | Least a year away
Potential retirements | High-profile candidates | Who’s ready to jump up?

Jobs already open
Jerome Tang was let go earlier this month after less than four seasons in Manhattan and less than three seasons removed from an Elite Eight run. But the Wildcats were 1-11 in Big 12 play and hadn’t returned to the NCAA tournament since 2023. Whether Kansas State had enough to fire him for cause will be figured out in the future.
Meanwhile, athletic director Gene Taylor will look for Tang’s replacement. It’s still early in the search, but names such as Utah State‘s Jerrod Calhoun, Belmont‘s Casey Alexander, Northern Iowa‘s Ben Jacobson and Creighton associate head coach — and Bluejays coach-in-waiting — Alan Huss are already sprouting up. Could Taylor also look to get a sitting high-major head coach, someone like Mississippi State‘s Chris Jans?
Other jobs currently open or with an interim head coach: Air Force, Cal State Bakersfield, North Florida, San Diego, Tarleton State

Jobs that could open
Bobby Hurley’s contract is up after this season and all signs point to the Sun Devils moving on from him. They’ve been playing better basketball of late, but they’re headed for their third straight season without an NCAA tournament appearance. Overall, in Hurley’s 11 seasons at the helm, Arizona State has gone to only three NCAA tournaments (it would have been a fourth had the tournament been held in 2020) and has yet to win a game. But when the dust settles on this cycle, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hurley land on his feet closer to the Northeast.
The optimism that followed a 20-win 2023-24 season seems a long time ago. BC finished next-to-last in the ACC in 2024-25, and is trending toward a similar ending this season. In fact, coach Earl Grant has yet to lead the Eagles to a .500 finish in conference play, and they entered the week just 6-28 in ACC games over the past two seasons. He’s under contract through the 2028-29 season, and it’s one of the worst Power 4 jobs in the country, but an opening appears likely.
Thad Matta is in the fourth year of his second stint at Butler, but he has yet to lead the Bulldogs to an NCAA tournament appearance since returning. In fact, the program hasn’t gone dancing since 2018 (although it would’ve gone in 2020). There is speculation Matta, 58, could step down, and Atlanta Hawks assistant Ronald Nored, who played at Butler under Brad Stevens, has long been linked as a potential candidate.
Wes Miller might be coaching himself off of the hot seat with the Bearcats’ recent play. They entered the week on a four-game winning streak, including Saturday’s 16-point win over Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. Another couple of wins, and Cincinnati could even find itself in the midst of the bubble conversation. The Bearcats haven’t gone to the NCAA tournament since Miller was hired in 2021, and they’ve spent real money on talented rosters the past few seasons. The former UNC Greensboro coach is owed nearly $10 million if he’s fired before April 1, but that guarantee drops to less than $5 million on April 1.
Industry sources are beginning to believe Tech is trending toward opening. The athletic director who hired Stoudamire is no longer at the school, the Yellow Jackets are currently in last place in the ACC — despite having a roster with a respectable level of talent — and Damon Stoudamire is just 42-52 in three seasons. He would reportedly be owed less than $3 million if the program moved on at the end of the season.
Athletic director Verge Ausberry raised the temperature on Matt McMahon last month, telling the Baton Rouge Advocate he’d made it clear to McMahon that the Tigers needed to make the NCAA tournament, or he would be forced to “reevaluate.” After a 12-1 start to the season, the Tigers are just 2-12 in SEC play, struggling mightily with star point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. sitting out most of conference play because of a foot injury. McMahon hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament in four years since arriving at LSU, and he’s just 16-52 in the SEC during that time. He would be owed about $8 million if fired — which, along with the injury issues, could ultimately play a role in McMahon trending toward returning for another season.
Penny Hardaway appeared to have Memphis on the right track after last season’s 29-win season and 5-seed in the NCAA tournament — the Tigers’ third tourney trip in four years. But things have fallen apart this season. Hardaway had won at least 20 games in each of his previous seven seasons in charge, but the Tigers dropped to 12-15 overall after their third straight double-digit loss Sunday. He was very emotional in his postgame news conference after an earlier loss, at times fighting back tears. Whether athletic director Ed Scott wants to fire a program legend 12 months after earning a 5-seed remains to be seen — as does whether Hardaway wants to step away on his own. He signed a six-year contract extension in 2022 that runs through the 2027-28 season.
It’s only two years into Jake Diebler’s tenure in Columbus, but the Buckeyes are squarely on the cutline for the NCAA tournament. If they don’t hear their name on Selection Sunday, that will be two years without a tournament appearance for Diebler, four years for the program as a whole. The latest word out of Columbus is that he’s probably safe for another season, but that could depend on what happens over the next three weeks. The school would be on the hook for just over $3 million.
Porter Moser led the Sooners on a late-season surge last season that staved off hot seat pressure, but the program entered this week with losses in 11 of its past 13 games. A roster built via the transfer portal last offseason hasn’t clicked, and OU is now going to miss the NCAA tournament for a fourth time in five seasons. New athletic director Roger Denny, who was hired in late January, will face a critical decision within weeks of his arrival. Moser has more than $5 million left on his deal.
It has been an inconsistent eight seasons in Pittsburgh for Jeff Capel. The Panthers struggled in his first four seasons, then turned things around with 46 wins and one NCAA tournament appearance over the next two (2022-23 and 2023-24). But they took a step back last season, and are now hovering near last place in the ACC, sitting at 10-17 overall and 3-11 in league play. In 2024, Capel signed a contract extension through the 2029-30 season, and would be owed eight figures if fired.
Kim English showed considerable promise in Year 1 (2023-24), leading the Friars to 21 wins and within reach of the NCAA tournament. But he has failed to build off that first year, entering this week with a 24-35 (11-25 Big East) record over the past two seasons despite spending substantial money to build those rosters. Providence gave English a contract extension after that first season, signing him through 2029-30. He would be owed a significant amount of money if fired.
It simply hasn’t quite clicked for Red Autry since he took over for Hall of Famer Jim Boeheim in 2023. He won 20 games in Year 1, then struggled last season. After compiling an impressive on-paper roster with enough talent to compete in the ACC, Syracuse is now just 6-9 in conference play. The Orange made an attempt at bubble consideration after beating Cal and SMU earlier this month, but a pair of blowout losses to Duke and North Carolina probably ended those hopes. One variable to consider: athletic director John Wildhack recently announced he would be retiring this summer.

Probably at least a year away
In reality, Ed Cooley is arguably the safest name on this list. He’s only three years into a long-term contract that reportedly pays him nearly $6 million a season, and the Hoyas have poured plenty of resources into helping him be the coach to return them to their glory days. It hasn’t gone well thus far, with Cooley entering the week with a 15-41 record in Big East play since taking over in the District. But he’ll get at least another season to turn it around.
Hubert Davis entered the season on one of the hotter seats in college basketball, but the Tar Heels are now ranked in the top 20 and are a second-weekend threat with Caleb Wilson expected to return from a hand injury. Barring a catastrophic finish to the season, Davis isn’t at risk of losing his job. He signed a contract extension in December 2024 that keeps him in Chapel Hill through the 2029-30 season, and he would be owed around $5 million if Carolina moved on. A couple of NCAA tournament wins might also ease some of the perceived pressure from the fan base, though this season’s performance, combined with a top-10 recruiting class coming in next season, cools off his seat moving forward.
Three seasons into his tenure in South Bend, Micah Shrewsberry has yet to finish above .500 overall, or in the ACC. The 2025-26 season has been his worst showing, with the Fighting Irish entering the week just 3-11 in conference play. There’s no appetite to make an immediate move, sources told ESPN, though, and Shrewsberry is still signed through the 2029-30 season.
Mike Rhoades arrived in State College in 2023 with three NCAA tournament trips in his previous five seasons at VCU. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions haven’t come close to the tournament during his three seasons in the Big Ten. They’re last in the conference this season, with a 2-15 record. When Rhoades was hired, he signed a seven-year contract with nearly $26 million guaranteed. There’s still $15.4 million remaining on it.
Since going to back-to-back NCAA tournaments in 2021 and 2022, it has been a steady downhill turn for Steve Pikiell and the Scarlet Knights. Despite having two top-five NBA draft picks last season, Rutgers finished 15-17 overall. It entered this week 11-16 overall and 4-12 in the Big Ten. Pikiell is owed an enormous amount of money, though, with a fully guaranteed deal through the 2030-31 season and more than $20 million left on his contract.
After struggling in Year 1 in Columbia, Lamont Paris guided the Gamecocks to a 26-win season in 2023-24, earning a 6-seed in the NCAA tournament and winning SEC Coach of the Year. But the Gamecocks haven’t come close to sustaining that momentum, entering the week with a 24-35 (5-27 SEC) record over the past two seasons. But it sounds as if the school plans to increase Paris’ NIL budget, in the hope that he will turn things around next season. Paris signed a six-year, $26 million extension through 2029-30, and there’s just over $12 million remaining.
The Hokies entered the week with bubble hopes still alive, sitting at 18-10 overall (7-8 ACC) with games at North Carolina and Virginia remaining that could boost their tournament résumé. Regardless of those results, it appears Mike Young is safe for another season — after which his last contract extension ends. Tech has missed the past three NCAA tournaments after making back-to-back appearances in 2021 and 2022.
The latest intel out of Winston-Salem points to Steve Forbes returning to the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is poised to miss the NCAA tournament for a sixth straight season, entering the week with a 14-13 overall record (5-9 ACC) — despite the fact that Forbes has won at least 19 games in four of his six seasons. Forbes, who signed a long-term extension in 2022 on a contract that had already run through 2026, also has a strong relationship with athletic director John Currie.
It’s only Year 2 for Danny Sprinkle with the Huskies, but things are already starting to heat up in Seattle. The program has spent significant money on Sprinkle’s rosters, but is just 26-32 overall in those two seasons, including 9-27 in Big Ten play. When Sprinkle was hired in March 2024, he’d signed a six-year, $22.1 million contract.
Others to watch: UAlbany, Ball State, The Citadel, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Fullerton, Gardner-Webb, Georgia State, Holy Cross, Little Rock, Niagara, Northern Illinois, Rider, Sacred Heart, Southern Indiana, Tennessee Tech, UNC Greensboro, UTEP, Weber State, Western Michigan

Potential retirements to monitor
The obvious place to start is Creighton’s Greg McDermott, who hired Alan Huss last season from High Point to be his associate head coach and coach-in-waiting. There has been no definitive timeline given by McDermott, although the change could happen as soon as after this season.
While speculation has surrounded Colorado’s Tad Boyle and Oregon’s Dana Altman seemingly every season, both are likely to be back in their positions for the 2026-27 campaign, sources told ESPN. The Buffaloes have struggled since moving to the Big 12, sitting at 29-33 (8-26 Big 12) in two seasons, but there have been no significant retirement discussions at Colorado, as the conversations have been focused on retaining the Buffaloes’ young core for next season. Altman is in the midst of his worst season since going 7-19 at Creighton in 1994-95, with the Ducks currently 10-17 (3-13 Big Ten). Before this season, he had won at least 20 games in 15 straight seasons and went to the past two NCAA tournaments. But after a season beset by injuries, there’s no expectation for any change or a retirement. Oregon also remains fully committed to the longtime head coach.
In the elite coaches tier, there’s annual speculation about Tennessee’s Rick Barnes, Gonzaga‘s Mark Few, Houston’s Kelvin Sampson, Kansas’ Bill Self and Michigan State‘s Tom Izzo — but all five programs are ranked in the top 20 and none of the coaches seem overly eager to step away. It wouldn’t be a shock if one of them did, but it’s impossible to predict at this point.
Dayton’s Anthony Grant is also rumored to be mulling a potential retirement. The Flyers entered the week tied for third in the Atlantic 10, but they have gone to only one NCAA tournament since he took over in 2017. It should be noted that the Flyers were tracking for a 1-seed in 2020 before the NCAA tournament was canceled. Grant was also recently named the head coach of the USA Basketball men’s U18 national team for this summer; does that make him more likely to stay?

High-profile candidates to keep an eye on
T.J. Otzelberger, Iowa State
Otzelberger has established himself as one of the elite coaches in college basketball, and he signed a new contract in December 2024 with a restructured buyout that makes him potentially attainable. If Ohio State were to open, there’s reason to believe the Buckeyes would look to gauge Otzelberger’s interest. That said, he’s happy in Ames, with no signs of him itching to leave, and he has a great relationship with Cyclones athletic director Jamie Pollard.
Chris Jans, Mississippi State
After going to the NCAA tournament in each of his first three seasons in Starkville, Jans and the Bulldogs are limping toward a sub-.500 finish this season. Mississippi State is considered one of the worst jobs in the SEC, so it’s conceivable he could look to jump to another high-major program with the right fit.
Will Wade, NC State
Wade has quickly turned around NC State in Year 1, as promised, with the Wolfpack trending toward wearing home jerseys in the first round of the NCAA tournament. But there is growing speculation that LSU would be potentially interested in a reunion, should the Tigers move on from Matt McMahon. Whether Wade would leave NC State after one season is a different story. He previously led LSU to three NCAA tournaments and an SEC title before being fired in 2022 following an NCAA investigation.
Porter Moser, Oklahoma
It’s true, we had Moser on the hot seat earlier, but he also has a big enough name and résumé to land on his feet at a reasonably strong job — whether it’s by leaving on his own or being let go. He has a Final Four and Sweet 16 on his ledger from his time at Loyola Chicago.
Chris Beard, Ole Miss
Beard is in the same category as Jans: a coach who could look to bounce to a job with a bigger budget if something becomes available. The Rebels are struggling mightily this season, sitting only one game out of last place in the SEC at 3-11 (11-16 overall). But Beard did lead Ole Miss to the Sweet 16 last season.
Randy Bennett, Saint Mary’s
Bennett has never shown interest in leaving Saint Mary’s, despite taking the Gaels to 11 NCAA tournament appearances since arriving in Moraga in 2001. But with Arizona State potentially opening, could Bennett — an Arizona native — find that it’s time to make the jump, especially with Gonzaga leaving the WCC?
Shaheen Holloway, Seton Hall
Holloway has guided the Pirates to one of the biggest single-season improvements in the country in 2025-26, going from 7-25 last season to 19-9 entering the week. They’re still trending toward missing the NCAA tournament, but they were picked last in the Big East and their NIL pales in comparison to that of the rest of the conference. Seton Hall hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament under Holloway but did win the NIT in 2024.
Mark Byington, Vanderbilt
There’s no sign Byington has interest in leaving Vanderbilt, but of the coaches at the top 20 schools, he is one of the few who could still potentially make a jump up. He has done one of the best jobs in the country this season, guiding the Commodores to a 16-0 start and a second straight NCAA tournament appearance. But Vanderbilt also checks a lot of boxes for Byington, and there doesn’t appear to be anything in line to open that would be a clear step up. There’s also a sizable buyout to get him out of Nashville.
Richard Pitino, Xavier
Rumors connecting Pitino to Providence have been circulating for several weeks, although it’s difficult to see the partnership coming to fruition. His buyout at Xavier is well into eight figures, and Providence would already have to pay close to $10 million to fire Kim English. With a much lower buyout figure? Perhaps it’s possible. But paying the largest buyout on record to lure a coach in the same league — who entered the week with the same 5-11 Big East record as the potential outgoing coach — doesn’t seem viable.
Kevin Keatts
Keatts was fired by NC State last season, just one year after leading the Wolfpack to the Final Four. He could get back into the sport after only one season out, as his résumé is better than those of other potential candidates this cycle. In addition to the Final Four, Keatts has made five NCAA tournament appearances and won two CAA titles at UNC Wilmington.

Who’s ready to make the jump?
Josh Schertz, Saint Louis
After being one of the hottest names on the coaching carousel only two years ago at Indiana State, Schertz is again the crown jewel of the coaching cycle. He has Saint Louis at 25-2 entering the week, ranked inside the top 25 nationally and on track for a single-digit seed on Selection Sunday. The only thing missing from his résumé is an NCAA tournament appearance — something that will change this season. It’s worth noting Schertz isn’t eager to jump at just any high-major job; he can afford to be selective, or even wait until next year.
Jerrod Calhoun, Utah State
The latest to come off the Utah State high-major coach assembly line, Calhoun has the Aggies atop the Mountain West one year after leading them to the NCAA tournament in his first season in Logan. He’s likely to be high on the list of candidates for any Midwest job, given his Ohio roots. He also has high-major experience from his time as an assistant coach at West Virginia. Calhoun’s new contract, which he signed last March, does include a buyout of more than $3 million.
Casey Alexander, Belmont
Alexander has done a tremendous job this season, taking a Belmont team picked fifth in the Missouri Valley to an outright regular-season title. The Bruins have yet to go to an NCAA tournament since hiring Alexander from Lipscomb in 2019 (though they did win the Ohio Valley tournament in 2020), but will be the favorites to cut down the nets at Arch Madness this season. Alexander has won at least 20 games in each of his past 10 seasons as head coach.
Travis Steele, Miami (Ohio)
Steele is at the helm of the last unbeaten team in men’s college basketball. The topic of a new contract has also already been publicly discussed, with Steele acknowledging over the weekend that the school has offered him a contract extension — and that he has yet to sign it. He has the RedHawks on track for the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007, and also won 25 games last season. He failed to make the NCAA tournament during his four seasons at Xavier in 2019-22 but could soon get a second chance at the high-major level.
Eric Olen, New Mexico
Olen is in his first season at New Mexico, with the Lobos right on the cutline for the NCAA tournament despite being picked fifth in the preseason Mountain West poll. Last season, he led UC San Diego to 30 wins and an NCAA tournament appearance, and was a consistent winner with the Toreros when they were still in Division II.
Bryan Hodgson, South Florida
Hodgson, a former Alabama assistant coach under Nate Oats, has now shown the ability to quickly turn around programs at two different schools. He won 45 games in two seasons at Arkansas State, including a share of the Sun Belt regular-season title last year, and now has South Florida atop the American in Year 1.
Takayo Siddle, UNC Wilmington
Since a 7-10 record in Wilmington during the COVID-19 2020-21 campaign, Siddle has become one of the most consistently successful mid-major coaches in the country. He has won at least 21 games in each of the past five seasons, leading the Seahawks to the 2022 CAA regular-season title and a 2025 NCAA tournament appearance. This season, UNCW sits in first place in the CAA, and it could be the right time for Siddle to make a jump.
Joe Gallo, Merrimack
Gallo and the Warriors won the outright MAAC regular-season championship, with room to spare, this season, holding a four-game lead with two games to go. It’s Gallo’s fourth regular-season title in seven years at the Division I level, and he has done it in two different conferences. Over the past four seasons — two in the NEC and two in the MAAC — Gallo is 55-15 in conference play. Merrimack also won the NEC tournament in 2023, but was then ineligible for the NCAA tournament. Expect Gallo to be involved in the conversation for bigger jobs in the Northeast.
Tony Skinn, George Mason
A couple of weeks ago, Skinn might have been higher up on this list, alongside Schertz and Calhoun. But the Patriots have fallen apart down the stretch and currently sit third in the Atlantic 10. He did lead Mason to a share of the conference regular-season title last season and has won 68 games in three seasons as a head coach, but he has yet to get to the NCAA tournament. He also has high-major experience from his time as an assistant at Maryland, Ohio State and Seton Hall.
John Groce, Akron
Groce has been one of the most consistent mid-major coaches in the country over the last handful of years, going to three NCAA tournaments in four years and winning the MAC regular-season title last year. The Zips are currently 13-1 in league play, their lone loss coming by three points at unbeaten Miami (Ohio). Groce spent five seasons as Illinois’ head coach from 2012 to 2017, winning 20 games three times but taking the Illini to only one NCAA tournament. With the Midwest seeming like the epicenter of this year’s carousel, he could find himself in the mix for a spot.
Others to watch: Dustin Kerns, App State; Chris Mack, Charleston; Matt Langel, Colgate; Brooks Savage, East Tennessee State; Bob Richey, Furman; Bryce Drew, Grand Canyon; Rob Senderoff, Kent State; Ritchie McKay, Liberty; Rod Strickland, Long Island University; Robert Jones, Norfolk State; Bob Richman, North Dakota State; Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa; Andy Toole, Robert Morris; Bashir Mason, Saint Peter’s; Chris Mudge, Sam Houston; Herb Sendek, Santa Clara; Richie Riley, South Alabama; Brad Korn, Southeast Missouri State; Matt Braeuer, Stephen F. Austin; Scott Cross, Troy; Eric Konkol, Tulsa; Andy Kennedy, UAB; Russell Turner, UC Irvine; James Jones, Yale
ESPN’s Pete Thamel contributed to this report.
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