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The NFC playoff bracket is set: Reasons for optimism for the Seahawks, 49ers, Bears and Rams

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The NFC playoff bracket is set: Reasons for optimism for the Seahawks, 49ers, Bears and Rams


The wild-card round of the 2025 NFL playoffs is heading toward completion, and the divisional-round matchups are taking shape. The NFC pairings are set, with the San Francisco 49ers set to play the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams heading to play the Chicago Bears.

To look ahead at these games, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Seahawks, who didn’t play this week, Brady Henderson provided some info from what they did during the bye week.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championship games, and we also provided projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and opening lines.

Let’s start with the 49ers against the Seahawks.

Jump to a matchup:
SF-SEA | LAR-CHI

NFC

When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI projection: SEA, 61.3%

What we learned about the 49ers in the wild-card round: Common sense would suggest that a team playing without so many of its biggest stars — edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and, as of Sunday, tight end George Kittle — would eventually run out of the magic that’s defined their unlikely postseason run. Sunday was not that day. Despite another devastating injury to a team leader, these Niners continue to defy conventional wisdom and carve a path few could have foreseen before the season. Sunday’s lesson was a familiar one — as long as these Niners get to keep playing, it’s unwise to count them out. — Nick Wagoner

What the Seahawks did during their bye week: It was hardly an off week for the Seahawks. They practiced outside in the elements on Wednesday and Thursday — in a light rain Wednesday and with temperatures in the low 40s and the wind blowing both days — as Mike Macdonald tried to get his team accustomed to playing in the kind of weather the Seahawks might get in the playoffs. “We’re not treating it like a regular-season bye week where guys are flying to Mexico and Hawaii and enjoying their time,” Pro Bowl defensive lineman Leonard Williams said. “I think we really celebrated that win against the Niners, but immediately that next day you could tell guys were like, ‘Hey, the job is not done. We’ve got a lot of work to do.'” — Brady Henderson

Why the 49ers will win: Because Sam Darnold is not the same player he was at the beginning of the season. Ten weeks into the season, the Seahawks’ quarterback led the NFL in QBR (77.8). But in Week 11, the Seahawks lost to the Rams and from that moment forward, Darnold ranked 27th (36.9) in the same metric! The 49ers will not fall into the trap other teams have against Seattle: matching the Seahawks’ big personnel with base defensive personnel. San Francisco is a nickel-heavy team, which will either invite Seattle to run or force Darnold into less favorable passing situations. And for all that went wrong in the 49ers’ season-finale loss in Week 18, they still held the Seahawks to just 13 points.

Giving Kyle Shanahan two weeks to study film after that loss might be enough for him to find some new ways to beat that seemingly-impenetrable Mike Macdonald defense. And the 49ers have a good passing game; they’ve averaged 0.17 EPA per dropback, which ranked sixth best among all teams and fifth best among those that made the playoffs. With All-Pro offensive tackle Trent Williams expected to play (he missed the Week 18 matchup), the 49ers definitely have a chance here.

Why the Seahawks will win: They proved it Week 18 in the battle for the No. 1 seed. Seattle shut down the 49ers offense with their ferocious defense, holding San Francisco to only three points. It was hardly an aberration: Seattle has the best defense in football and the stats are undeniable. No. 1 in EPA allowed per play. No. 1 in opponent’s success rate. And one of my favorites: Minus-30 first downs over expectation allowed on opponent runs according to NFL Next Gen Stats, doubling up the next-best team in the regular season (the Houston Texans at minus-15).

But there’s another reason for Seahawks optimism. While their passing game has not been the same in the second half of the season, they can offset that with a more reliable rushing attack against a 49ers’ defense that is hurting at linebacker. Both Fred Warner and Tatum Bethune are out, and Dee Winters missed San Francisco’s wild card game, too. — Walder

Matchup background: These teams met two weeks ago in the regular-season finale at Levi’s Stadium, with the Seahawks beating the 49ers 13-3 to clinch the NFC West and homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The 49ers defeated Seattle 17-13 in the season opener at Lumen Field, with San Francisco forcing a late turnover to hold on. These franchises have split two previous playoff matchups, with Seattle winning the 2013 NFC Championship Game and the 49ers knocking out the Seahawks in the 2022 wild-card round. — ESPN

Stat to know: Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers this season (14 interceptions, six fumbles lost). This is the first time dating to 1978 that a player on a No. 1-seeded team has led the league in turnovers. — ESPN Research

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Purdy finds McCaffrey for TD to put 49ers ahead late

Brock Purdy throws a touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey to give the 49ers the lead late in the fourth quarter vs. the Eagles.


When: TBD Saturday or Sunday
FPI projection: LAR, 61.2%

What we learned about the Rams in the wild-card round: The world once again saw why the Rams feel so confident in those got-to-have-it situations due to having Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Stafford led the Rams on two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against the Panthers, including one with 38 seconds left. “That’s why we’re advancing, because of his leadership,” Rams head coach Sean McVay said. Stafford now has four career game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game. According to ESPN Research, the only quarterback with more since Stafford joined the Rams in 2021 is Patrick Mahomes (6). — Sarah Barshop

What we learned about the Bears in the wild-card round: The Bears continue to be one of the best second-half teams in the NFL. After trailing Green Bay 21-3 at halftime, Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to come from behind and beat the Packers. But as they’ve been saying all season, the Bears need to start faster on both sides of the ball. Chicago’s defense pressured Packers QB Jordan Love on only 18% of his dropbacks in the first half (versus 32% in the second half, including four times on the Packers’ last drive). Caleb Williams and the offense struggled until the Bears quarterback turned his deep-ball passing around in the second half, when he was 7-of-13 for 166 yards and a touchdown on passes of 15 or more air yards. In the first half, Williams was 2-for-5 for 40 yards and interception on such throws. — Courtney Cronin

Why the Rams will win: The Rams are arguably the best team in football — and the Bears are not. Don’t get me wrong, Chicago deserves plenty of credit for its remarkable season, but the numbers clearly favor Los Angeles. This is the team ranked second in EPA per play on offense, has the MVP favorite at quarterback, the best wide receiver in football and a solid offensive line that will give Stafford all day to throw against the Bears’ lacking pass rush.

The Bears have a strong running game, and we’ve certainly seen Williams have incredible moments. But in terms of EPA per play, the Rams have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Plus, we could argue that we didn’t see the true version of the Rams in the wild-card round after Stafford suffered an early finger injury (but still managed to orchestrate a comeback, anyway). And if wide receiver Puka Nacua had not had an incredibly uncharacteristic drop on what surely would have been a touchdown at the end of the first half, the Rams might have beaten the Panthers more comfortably.

And while the Rams’ defense is not perfect, each of the major players on defensive line — Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske and Poona Ford — can create mayhem for their opponents.

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Recapping the Bears’ comeback win over Packers

Kimberely A. Martin recaps the performance of Caleb Williams and the Bears against the Packers.

Why the Bears will win: They can never be ruled out. Chicago added to its season of improbable victories with an incredible come-from-behind win over the Packers in which the Bears entered the fourth quarter down 15 points and exited it up four. In between, we witnessed the Bears at their absolute best. Williams made the throw of a lifetime on fourth-and-8 to keep their hopes alive and coach Ben Johnson used an imbalanced line to sell the screen of a screen-and-go, fooling the Packers’ secondary and freeing DJ Moore for a touchdown.

But what makes Chicago so threatening is that it won despite not even being the best version of itself. In the regular season, the Bears averaged a 48% success rate on designed runs (third best), but that number dropped to 28% against Green Bay. And even in victory, Williams had a 28% off-target rate and a minus-14% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) — both solidly worse than his regular-season marks. They’ll be home underdogs against the Rams and Los Angeles’ offense should have a serious advantage over the Bears’ defense. But the Bears can generate turnovers, forcing a league-high 33 in the regular season. They’ll need more of that turnover variance to go their way against the Rams, but it’s doable. — Walder

Matchup background: The Rams and Bears did not play this season, with their most recent matchup coming in Week 4 of the 2024 season. Chicago prevailed 24-18 at Soldier Field, breaking a three-game losing streak to Los Angeles. This is only the third postseason matchup between these franchises and the first in 40 years. The Bears defeated the Rams 24-0 in the 1985 NFC Championship Game en route to the Super Bowl XX title, which is Chicago’s most recent NFL championship. — ESPN

Stat to know: After being sacked two or more times in 15 games last season, Williams has been sacked one or zero times in 11 games in 2025 (including Saturday’s playoff victory). The Rams had 47 sacks in the regular season and added two more in their wild-card win over Carolina. — ESPN Research



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Marcus Smart’s breakout game helps Lakers go up 2-0 on Rockets

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Marcus Smart’s breakout game helps Lakers go up 2-0 on Rockets


LOS ANGELES — The Houston Rockets had Kevin Durant back for Game 2 of their first-round matchup Tuesday. So the Lakers had Marcus Smart guard him in their 101-94 win to take a 2-0 series lead.

“It was good for them to have KD out there for them,” Smart said, “and it was good for us to be able to do what we did tonight against him.”

Durant returned from a right knee injury that kept him out of Game 1 to score 23 points on 7-for-12 shooting — but shot just 1-for-3 and committed three of his playoff career-worst nine turnovers in the 18 possessions he was defended by Smart, according to ESPN Research.

“He’s not afraid of the moment,” said LeBron James, who led L.A. with 28 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. “He’s always been assigned some of the best players that [have] ever played this game in his career. So, to have someone like that it just brings a lot of composure to our team.

“Especially when we’re missing — I hate to beat a dead horse, but it’s two big horses — with AR [Austin Reaves] and Luka [Doncic] out. So, to have that, it means a lot to our ballclub.”

As effective as Smart was defensively, grabbing five steals, he was equally important on offense, scoring 25 points on 8-for-13 shooting (5-for-7 from 3) with seven assists.

“Smart, he just had a killer game today,” Lakers coach JJ Redick said.

The veteran guard, signed to a two-year, $11 million contract in the offseason after being recruited to L.A. by Doncic, was great from the start of Game 2, scoring 14 of his points in the first quarter.

“He set the tone for us, got us going,” said Luke Kennard, who followed up 27 points in Game 1 with 23 in Game 2. “And we know with those guys out, it could be anybody on any given night right now.”

Houston, which was held below 100 points for the second straight game and shot just 40.4%, cut what was once a 15-point lead by the Lakers to just five with under three minutes remaining.

Which was when Smart, fittingly, hit his fifth 3 of the night to put the Lakers back up by eight with 2:23 to go and give them some breathing room.

“He hit a big one,” Redick said.

While Redick said before the game that Reaves had started his return to play progression, confirming ESPN’s Shams Charania’s report that he began on-court one-on-one workouts as he continues to rehabilitate from a Grade 2 oblique strain that’s kept him out since April 2, the coach did not provide an updated timeline on when Reaves could be back in the lineup.

Redick added that Doncic had yet to begin his return to play progression from the Grade 2 left hamstring strain that’s also sidelined him since April 2 and provided no timetable update on the Slovenian star, either.

In other words, as the series shifts to Houston for Game 3 on Friday, Smart will still be as important as ever.

“I can look at him, and he knows what the hell I’m talking about,” said James, who revealed that his viral meme moment from Game 1 was him making eye contact with none other than Smart to get his attention from across the court. “He can relate to me.”

And Redick said that the team can relate to Smart’s will to win.

“Because he has the voice he has, he can help create the belief and the confidence in our group,” Redick said. “And I think he’s done that.”

For Smart, who was named the Defensive Player of the Year for the 2021-22 season before helping the Boston Celtics make it to the 2022 NBA Finals before two injury-riddled seasons in Memphis and Washington, Game 2 served as a reminder of his capabilities.

“I’m very grateful to be doing this,” Smart said. “I thank God every day, because I could have been out the league, right? Injuries and things like that. So, to be able to be back on this stage again, making the plays that I’m making with these guys, with this team, this organization, I’m just grateful.”



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Why Guardiola’s legacy could exceed Ferguson’s, Wenger’s, Klopp’s

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Why Guardiola’s legacy could exceed Ferguson’s, Wenger’s, Klopp’s


When Sir Alex Ferguson left Manchester United in 2013, he did so with a Premier League winners’ medal around his neck. The downside was that he squeezed every last bit out of an aging team and the handover to his successor David Moyes was a traumatic one from which United have never really recovered.

Jurgen Klopp didn’t leave Liverpool as a champion when he departed Anfield two years ago, but he did pass Arne Slot a squad in decent shape — evidenced by their title win 12 months after his exit.

And when Arsène Wenger called it quits at Arsenal in 2018, he left behind neither the Premier League trophy nor the players to achieve it. Major surgery has been required from Mikel Arteta to restore them as genuine contenders.

It’s clear that moving on from a manager who has been in position for a long time can be complicated.


– Ogden: Arsenal are still Premier League title favorites, and here’s why
– Marcotti: Premier League now City’s to lose, Bayern clinch Bundesliga, more
– Man City 2-1 Arsenal: Haaland’s winner blows title race wide open


Manchester City might be about to go through the same thing as United, Liverpool and Arsenal, with doubts about whether Pep Guardiola will still be in charge in August. But if he does go, he’s in something of a unique position in the Premier League era when it comes to possibly signing off with a title and leaving behind a squad which — in theory — is only going to get better.

While still unconfirmed, there’s a growing feeling around City that Guardiola, 55, will leave at the end of the season. He is under contract until June 2027, but there was surprise at the time that the extension he signed in November 2024 was for two years rather than just one.

There will be very little shock if he doesn’t see out the final year.

There’s unlikely to be any kind of formal announcement while City are still in contention to win trophies; Guardiola has always looked to minimize distractions as much as possible.

Victory over Arsenal on Sunday has narrowed the gap in the title race to three points with five games to go — plus City have a game in hand — and with an FA Cup semifinal against Championship side Southampton to come on Saturday, there’s still the possibility of sealing a domestic treble after their success over the Gunners in the Carabao Cup in March.

Not even Ferguson went out like that.

Ferguson also left United with the club on the brink of a difficult transition. His title success in 2012-13 was achieved with a squad overly reliant on an older core of Patrice Evra, Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic, Michael Carrick, Ryan Giggs, Paul Scholes and Robin van Persie. Only Carrick stayed on the playing staff beyond 2015.

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1:36

Moreno: I’d rather be in Man City’s dressing room right now

Alejandro Moreno believes Man City’s win over Arsenal puts them in a stronger position to win the Premier League.

Giggs said recently on a podcast appearance with Ferdinand that: “Another sign of a good manager is the team he leaves behind.”

Ferguson’s successor, Moyes, made plenty of mistakes of his own, but his task was made more difficult because of the squad he inherited.

Guardiola has done it differently. He has overseen the departure of a number of experienced campaigners over the last 18 months including Éderson, Kyle Walker, Ilkay Gündogan and Kevin De Bruyne.

In their place, Guardiola has bedded in younger players like Marc Guéhi, Josko Gvardiol, Abdukodir Khusanov, Nico O’Reilly, Antoine Semenyo and Rayan Cherki.

The average age of the City squad this season is 26.1; the average age of the starting XI against Arsenal on Sunday was even lower, at 25.3.

Whether Guardiola stays or goes, there will be further investment in the squad this summer. But any money spent will be used to fill specific needs — a midfielder to replace the departing Bernardo Silva and possibly a right back — rather than making wholesale changes. The foundations of City’s next team are already in place.

Guardiola has said that City will be better next season. That has prompted some hope among fans that he might decide he wants to benefit from the improvement himself rather than hand the golden ticket to a successor — whether that’s his former assistant Enzo Maresca (who is currently out of work after leaving Chelsea) or someone else.

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1:36

Guardiola hails ‘legend’ Bernardo Silva after Man City beat Arsenal

Pep Guardiola sings the praises of Bernardo Silva after the midfielder’s star performance in Manchester City’s win over Arsenal.

He has shelved plans to leave before, most notably when he signed a second extension in November 2022, and one more crack at winning the UEFA Champions League might be tempting.

City have always been relaxed about Guardiola’s future, believing that their relationship is so strong that he would always factor in what’s best for the club as well as what works for him. It’s one of the reasons there were no internal concerns that he could leave last summer — despite a relatively poor season — because he knew a handover in a summer which included the FIFA Club World Cup would be difficult for the club to manage.

Whenever Guardiola decides to go, it will be a big blow for City.

The club have been molded around his vision since he arrived in 2016, and it’s paid off in the form of a bucketload of silverware. He could yet walk away as a champion while also leaving behind a team capable of adding more in the future.

And that is something not even Premier League greats like Ferguson, Klopp and Wenger were able to achieve.



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Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal ramp up interest in Williams

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Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal ramp up interest in Williams


Arsenal could move for Athletic Club winger Nico Williams, while Real Madrid midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni is on the shortlist of Manchester United. Join us for the latest transfer news and rumors from around the globe.

Transfers home page | Men’s winter grades | Women’s grades

TRENDING RUMORS

Arsenal are ramping up their interest in Nico Williams, as the winger recently returned to action for Athletic Club following a lengthy absence due to a groin injury. TEAMtalk claims that the Spain international has admirers at the Emirates, including sporting director Andrea Berta. Barcelona continue to be linked with Williams, but their priorities lie elsewhere in the squad, potentially opening an opportunity for the Gunners to move first.

Manchester United have added Real Madrid midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni to their shortlist of potential options to replace Casemiro this summer, according to The Telegraph. Tchouameni, 26, could be allowed to leave the Bernabeu this summer alongside Eduardo Camavinga, with the club looking to seal a midfield signing of their own in the form of Manchester City‘s Rodri. But the France international has a contract until 2028 and could command a fee upwards of €60 million.

Liverpool chiefs have approved the signing of RB Leipzig winger Yan Diomande as the top option to replace Mohamed Salah when he departs on a free transfer this summer, reports Florian Plettenberg. Diomande, 19, has only been playing at the top level since November 2024 but has impressed in the German Bundesliga and continues to be linked with a switch to Anfield. PSG are also in the race to sign him, while Leipzig are looking for a fee of around €80 million.

Newcastle United are open to letting winger Anthony Gordon leave this summer, but only if a club is willing to match their £75 million transfer valuation, reports The Times. Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich have been heavily linked with the England international recently, with Gordon also attracting interest from Liverpool and Arsenal.

John Stones is set to become the next high-profile exit from Manchester City when his contract comes to an end this summer, according to Fabrizio Romano. The 31-year-old defender has spent 10 years with the club since joining from Everton in 2016, but he is set to join midfielder Bernardo Silva in becoming a free agent at the end of the season. Stones has made just 15 appearances across all competitions during this campaign, having struggled with injury issues.

EXPERT TAKE

ESPN Madrid correspondent Alex Kirkland on the future for Aurelien Tchouaméni.

The idea of Real Madrid letting Tchouaméni go, after a season in which he has become arguably the team’s most important and consistent player, strikes me as quite far-fetched.

Yes, Tchouaméni struggled to find consistency early in his Madrid career — ironically, finding it difficult to replace Casemiro when he left in 2022 — and was even whistled by fans at the Bernabéu just over a year ago. He has been singled out for criticism after some poor performances in high-profile games and a perceived inability to deliver on the ball. But in 2025-26 he has been sensational, both under Xabi Alonso and Álvaro Arbeloa.

Tchouaméni has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing campaign and has consolidated his place as a certain starter in the team. He has made 28 appearances in LaLiga and 13 in the Champions League.

Camavinga may well be available for transfer this summer, having failed to develop in his five years at the Bernabéu and frustrating in key moments, but Tchouaméni is a different story. If Rodri were to arrive — which is by no means certain — he would likely play alongside Tchouaméni, or alternate with him, rather than replace him.

It would be difficult to understand letting Tchouaméni go, just when it appears he’s becoming the player Madrid fans long hoped he would be.

OTHER RUMORS

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2:07

Ogden: Rosenior may be sacked before Sunday if Chelsea lose to Brighton

Mark Ogden says Chelsea boss Liam Rosenior is “teetering on the brink” of losing his job, after just one league win in five games.

– Striker Nicolas Jackson is warming to the idea of returning to Chelsea, as a permanent move to Bayern Munich after his loan spell ends appears unlikely. (Sun)

– Ajax and Schalke are in the race to sign Rangers midfielder Bailey Rice as a free agent this summer. (Fabrizio Romano)

– Barcelona want to extend Robert Lewandowski‘s contract until 2027, on reduced wages, while Chicago Fire and Saudi Pro League clubs await an opening to make a move. (Florian Plettenberg)

– Defender Ibrahima Konate is on the verge of extending his contract with Liverpool. (Florian Plettenberg)

– Liverpool midfielder Alexis Mac Allister could be allowed to leave this summer as part of a major squad overhaul. (Football Insider)

– Liverpool have had positive negotiations with midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai over a new contract, but work still needs to be done to secure a full agreement over a renewal. (Fabrizio Romano)

– Real Madrid are interested in AZ midfielder Kees Smit, 20, as an option, with his contract expiring in 2028. (AS)

– Barcelona are looking at Real Betis’ Abde Ezzalzouli and Benfica’s Andreas Schjelderup as alternatives to Manchester United loanee Marcus Rashford in the forward areas. (AS)



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