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IBM and NASA Develop a Digital Twin of the Sun to Predict Future Solar Storms

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IBM and NASA Develop a Digital Twin of the Sun to Predict Future Solar Storms


The Sun’s most complex mysteries could soon be solved thanks to artificial intelligence. On August 20, IBM and NASA announced the launch of Surya, a foundation model for the sun. Having been trained on large datasets of solar activity, this AI tool aims to deepen humanity’s understanding of solar weather and accurately predict solar flares—bursts of electromagnetic radiation emitted by our star that threaten both astronauts in orbit and communications infrastructure on Earth.

Surya was trained with nine years of data collected by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), an instrument that has orbited the sun since 2010, taking high-resolution images every 12 seconds. The SDO captures observations of the sun at various different electromagnetic wavelengths to estimate the temperature of the star’s layers. It also takes precise measurements of the sun’s magnetic field—essential data for understanding how energy moves through the star, and for predicting solar storms.

Historically, interpreting this vast amount of diverse and complex data has been a challenge for heliophysicists. To address this challenge, IBM says that Surya’s developers used the SDO data to create a digital twin of the sun—a dynamic virtual replica of the star that is updated when new data is captured, and which can be manipulated and more easily studied.

The process began with unifying the various data formats fed into the model, allowing it to process them consistently. Next, a long-range vision transformer was employed—AI architecture that enables detailed analysis of very high-resolution images and the identification of relationships between their components, regardless of their distance.

The model’s performance was optimized using a mechanism called spectral gating, which reduces memory usage by up to 5 percent by filtering out noise in the data, thereby increasing the quality of the processed information.

More Accurate Predictions in Less Time

Its developers say that this design gives Surya a significant advantage: Unlike other algorithms that require extensive labeling of the data that’s fed to them, Surya can learn directly from raw data. This allows it to quickly adapt to different tasks and deliver reliable results in less time.

During testing, Surya demonstrated its versatility in integrating data from other instruments, such as the Parker Solar Probe and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), two other spacecraft that observe the sun. Surya also proved to be effective in various predictive functions, including predicting flare activity and solar wind speed.

According to IBM, traditional prediction models can only predict a flare one hour in advance based on signals detected in specific regions of the sun. In contrast, “Surya provided a two-hour lead by using visual information. The model is thought to be the first to provide a warning of this kind. In early testing of the model, the team said they achieved a 16 percent improvement in solar flare classification accuracy, a marked improvement over existing methods,” the company said in a statement.

NASA stresses that, although the model was designed to study heliophysics, its architecture is adaptable to different fields, from planetary science to Earth observation. “By developing a foundation model trained on NASA’s heliophysics data, we’re making it easier to analyze the complexities of the sun’s behavior with unprecedented speed and precision,” said Kevin Murphy, NASA’s director of data science, in a statement. “This model empowers broader understanding of how solar activity impacts critical systems and technologies that we all rely on here on Earth.”

The risk posed by abnormal solar activity is not minor. A major solar storm could directly affect global telecommunications, collapse electrical grids, and disturb GPS navigation, satellite operations, internet connections, and radio transmissions.

Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo, a solar physicist at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas, and lead scientist on the project, emphasized that Surya’s goal is to maximize the lead time for these possible scenarios. “We want to give Earth the longest lead time possible. Our hope is that the model has learned all the critical processes behind our star’s evolution through time so that we can extract actionable insights.”

This story originally appeared on WIRED en Español and has been translated from Spanish.



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‘The Last Airbender’ Leaked Online. Some Fans Say Paramount Deserves the Fallout

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‘The Last Airbender’ Leaked Online. Some Fans Say Paramount Deserves the Fallout


The online leak of a full version of Avatar: Aang, The Last Airbender—a highly anticipated animated film in a multimedia fantasy franchise—has divided passionate fans while upsetting those who spent years working on the film.

The leaks began on X late on Saturday night, about six months before Aang was scheduled to premiere on Paramount+. User @ImStillDissin posted two short clips from the film. “Nickelodeon accidentally emailed me the entire Avatar aang movie,” he claimed. He also threatened to stream the entire movie if Paramount didn’t release an official trailer, and he posted a still from the movie’s end credits, revealing previously undisclosed voice-over cast and roles. The media from @ImStillDissin’s posts were later hit with copyright strikes and removed.

But within 48 hours, links to download the full movie appeared on 4chan and X, where some users also directly streamed the film. Across the web, fans said they had successfully pirated and watched what appeared to be a nearly finished and “beautiful” animated film.

While some argued that Paramount deserved to be punished because of certain creative and marketing decisions around the movie, others noted what a blow the leak was to the animators and production crew. A number of those team members took to social media to convey their sadness and frustration.

“We worked on the aang movie for years with the expectation that’d [sic] we’d get to celebrate all of our hard work in theaters. Just to see people unceremoniously leak the film and pass our shots around on twitter like candy,” animator Julia Schoel wrote Tuesday on X.

The user behind @ImStillDissin, who would not reveal his real name due to fear of legal repercussions, tells WIRED that he obtained the movie almost by chance and did not expect his posts to set off such a crisis in the entertainment world. “When I posted those clips I was purely trolling,” he says. “I was expecting a day of clout farming at best, not for the whole thing to blow up like this.”

(While WIRED has done its due diligence in verifying that the person speaking to us was behind the @ImStillDissin X account, we acknowledge that the hacking community is known to troll.)

According to @ImStillDissin, a screen-grabbed version of Avatar: Aang, The Last Airbender was circulating among people he knew from his days in the hacking community, one of whom shared it with him. “Broadly speaking, the supply chain for movies and TV is rife with insecure companies and vendors and lax checks,” he claims. He notes that two different SpongeBob SquarePants movies leaked months before their release dates in 2024. “Someone on 4chan who wasn’t happy at me drip-feeding stuff posted a copy of a draft script [of the new Avatar film] from like two years back,” says @ImStillDissin.

Neither Nickelodeon nor its parent company Paramount have confirmed a hack had taken place, nor have they issued a statement on the matter. They also did not respond to requests for comment.

Originally announced in 2021, Avatar: Aang, The Last Airbender marked the first production for Avatar Studios, a division of Nickelodeon’s animation department.

Some people felt justified in pirating and sharing the movie due to the recasting of voice actors. Last year, during a Reddit AMA, casting director Jenny Jue wrote that the voice cast from the Avatar TV show that aired on Nickelodeon in the 2000s was not returning due to efforts to “match actors’ ethnic/racial background to the characters they’re portraying.”



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NASA Wants to Put Nuclear Reactors on the Moon

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NASA Wants to Put Nuclear Reactors on the Moon


Having demonstrated that it has the operational capability to transport humans safely to the moon and back, the United States is moving on to its next major aim: It wants nuclear reactors in orbit and on the lunar surface by 2030. For such a feat, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration will have to work in conjunction with the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy.

In a post on X, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) unveiled a document with new guidelines for federal agencies to establish the space nuclear technology road map for the coming years. This, they say, will ensure “US space superiority.”

At present, space instruments use solar power to operate. However, this is considered impractical for more complex purposes. Although technically there is always sunlight, the power is intermittent and almost always requires bulky batteries to store it.

Reactors produce fairly continuous energy for years through nuclear fission. They can also be used for so-called nuclear electric propulsion. Continuous output makes them the most viable option for lunar base subsistence, but they can also allow spacecraft to undertake long or complex missions without worrying about depleting a limited supply of chemical fuel.

Nuclear technology, in short, makes it possible to go farther, with more payload, for longer, and with fewer constraints.

According to the memorandum, the US goal is to put a medium-power reactor in orbit by 2028, with a variant designed for nuclear electric propulsion, and a first functional large reactor on the surface of the moon by 2030. To achieve this, both NASA and the Pentagon will develop energy technologies in parallel, using the current strategy of competition among contractors.

The reactors will have to be modular and scalable, and will have to include applications for both future life on the moon and space propulsion. For its part, the DOE will have to ensure that these projects have the fuel, infrastructure, and safety features necessary to achieve their objectives. In addition, the agency will evaluate whether the industry has the capacity to produce up to four reactors in five years.

The plan contemplates technologies that produce at least 20 kilowatts of electricity (kWe) for three years in orbit and at least five years on the lunar surface. In the meantime, they should have a design capable of raising power to 100 kWe. The first designs should arrive within a year.

Finally, the order tasks the OSTP with creating a road map for the initiative, noting obstacles and recommendations for addressing them.

“Nuclear power in space will give us the sustained electricity, heating, and propulsion essential to a permanent presence on the moon, Mars, and beyond,” OSTP posted. For his part, NASA administrator Jared Isaacman posted, “The time has come for America to get underway on nuclear power in space.” The message was followed by an emoji of a US flag.

The plan provides a common framework for each agency to work within. In the background, the race for space infrastructure is evidence of technological competition with China, which is also seeking advanced energy capabilities for the moon.

This story originally appeared in WIRED en Español and has been translated from Spanish.



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AI Could Democratize One of Tech’s Most Valuable Resources

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AI Could Democratize One of Tech’s Most Valuable Resources


Nvidia is the undisputed king of AI chips. But thanks to the AI it helped build, the champ could soon face growing competition.

Modern AI runs on Nvidia designs, a dynamic that has propelled the company to a market cap of well over $4 trillion. Each new generation of Nvidia chip allows companies to train more powerful AI models using hundreds or thousands of processors networked together inside vast data centers. One reason for Nvidia’s success is that it provides software to help program each new generation of chip. That may soon not be such a differentiated skill.

A startup called Wafer is training AI models to do one of the most difficult and important jobs in AI—optimizing code so that it runs as efficiently as possible on a particular silicon chip.

Emilio Andere, cofounder and CEO of Wafer, says the company performs reinforcement learning on open source models to teach them to write kernel code, or software that interacts directly with hardware in an operating system. Andere says Wafer also adds “agentic harnesses” to existing coding models like Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s GPT to soup up their ability to write code that runs directly on chips.

Many prominent tech companies now have their own chips. Apple and others have for years used custom silicon to improve the performance and the efficiency of software running on laptops, tablets, and smartphones. At the other end of the scale, companies like Google and Amazon mint their own silicon to improve the performance of their cloud-computing platforms. Meta recently said it would deploy 1 gigawatt of compute capacity with a new chip developed with Broadcom. Deploying custom silicon also involves writing a lot of code so that it runs smoothly and efficiently on the new processor.

Wafer is working with companies including AMD and Amazon to help optimize software to run efficiently on their hardware. The startup has so far raised $4 million in seed funding from Google’s Jeff Dean, Wojciech Zaremba of OpenAI, and others.

Andere believes that his company’s AI-led approach has the potential to challenge Nvidia’s dominance. A number of high-end chips now offer similar raw floating point performance—a key industry benchmark of a chip’s ability to perform simple calculations—to Nvidia’s best silicon.

“The best AMD hardware, the best [Amazon] Trainium hardware, the best [Google] TPUs, give you the same theoretical flops to Nvidia GPUs,” Andere told me recently. “We want to maximize intelligence per watt.”

Performance engineers with the skill needed to optimize code to run reliably and efficiently on these chips are expensive and in high demand, Andere says, while Nvidia’s software ecosystem makes it easier to write and maintain code for its chips. That makes it hard for even the biggest tech companies to go it alone.

When Anthropic partnered with Amazon to build its AI models on Trainium, for instance, it had to rewrite its model’s code from scratch to make it run as efficiently as possible on the hardware, Andere says.

Of course, Anthropic’s Claude is now one of many AI models that are now superhuman at writing code. So Andere reckons it may not be long before AI starts consuming Nvidia software advantage.

“The moat lives in the programmability of the chip,” Andere says in reference to the libraries and software tools that make it easier to optimize code for Nvidia hardware. “I think it’s time to start rethinking whether that’s actually a strong moat.”

Besides making it easier to optimize code for different silicon, AI may soon make it easier to design chips themselves. Ricursive Intelligence, a startup founded by two ex-Google engineers, Azalia Mirhoseini and Anna Goldie, is developing new ways to design computer chips with artificial intelligence. If its technology takes off, a lot more companies could branch into chip design, creating custom silicon that runs their software more efficiently.



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