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How inflation rebound is set to affect UK interest rates

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How inflation rebound is set to affect UK interest rates


Interest rates are widely expected to remain at 3.75% as Bank of England policymakers prioritise curbing above-target inflation while also monitoring economic growth, according to expert analysis.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is anticipated to leave borrowing costs unchanged when it announces its latest decision on Thursday, marking its first interest rate setting meeting of the year.

This follows a rate cut delivered before Christmas, which was the fourth such reduction.

At the time, Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the UK had “passed the recent peak in inflation and it has continued to fall”, enabling the MPC to ease borrowing costs. However, he cautioned that any further cuts would be a “closer call”.

Since that decision, official data has revealed that inflation unexpectedly rebounded in December, rising for the first time in five months.

How the UK interest rate has changed in recent years

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate reached 3.4% for the month, an increase from 3.2% in November, with factors such as tobacco duties and airfares contributing to the upward pressure on prices.

Economists suggest this inflation uptick is likely to reinforce the MPC’s inclination to keep rates steady this month.

Philip Shaw, an analyst for Investec, stated: “The principal reason to hold off from easing again is that at 3.4% in December, inflation remains well above the 2% target.”

He added: “But with the stance of policy less restrictive than previously, there are greater risks that further easing is unwarranted.”

Shaw also highlighted other data points the MPC would consider, including gross domestic product (GDP), which saw a return to growth of 0.3% in November – a potentially encouraging sign for policymakers.

Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, affirmed: “Keeping bank rate unchanged at 3.75% at next week’s meeting looks a near-certainty.”

The rate of inflation in recent years

The rate of inflation in recent years

He noted that while some MPC members who favoured a cut in December still have concerns about persistent wage growth and inflation, recent data has not been compelling enough to prompt back-to-back reductions.

Edward Allenby, senior economic advisor at Oxford Economics, forecasts the next rate cut to occur in April.

He explained: “The MPC will continue to face a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and preventing inflation from becoming entrenched, with forthcoming data on pay settlements likely to play a decisive role in shaping the next policy move.”

The Bank’s policymakers have consistently voiced concerns regarding the pace of wage increases in the UK, which can fuel overall inflation.



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Ads for British beef and milk banned following Chris Packham complaint

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Ads for British beef and milk banned following Chris Packham complaint



Two ads promoting British beef and milk have been banned after television presenter and environmental campaigner Chris Packham complained that they misled consumers about the products’ carbon footprints.

Both ads for the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s (AHDB) Let’s Eat Balanced campaign used the carbon footprint of British beef and milk to promote the products, firstly stating: “British beef not only tastes great, but has a carbon footprint that’s half the global average*.”

The asterisk linked to text that stated: “Full lifecycle emissions of CO2 eq (carbon dioxide equivalent) per kg of beef.”

The ad for milk stated: “British milk not only tastes good, but is also produced to world-class standards, and has a carbon footprint a third lower than the global average.”

Packham complained to the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) that the ads, and specifically the carbon footprint claims, were misleading as they did not reflect the full environmental impact of British meat and dairy.

The AHDB said the ads’ mention of carbon emissions would be understood in relation to the environmental impact of beef and milk that occurred between the “cradle-to-retail” stages.

But the ASA said the average consumer “being reasonably well-informed, observant and circumspect” would understand the claims to apply beyond the retail stage and include actions such as cooking and wastage.

The ASA said: “While we acknowledged the potential difficulties in producing post-retail emissions data, the claims in the ads suggested those emissions were included and we therefore expected the evidence provided to also include them.

“We therefore concluded that the evidence presented was insufficient to support the full life-cycle claims in the ads, which was how the average consumer was likely to interpret them.

“We reminded AHDB that environmental claims should be based on the full life cycle unless the ad stated otherwise.”

AHDB’s director of communications and market development, Will Jackson, said: “Let’s Eat Balanced is doing what it was designed to do, providing clear, factual, evidence-led information about British food, nutrition and farming standards.

“Since the investigation began, we have conducted independent consumer research which found that the majority of respondents interpreted these adverts as relating to the production phase only, from farm to retail.

“This research provides important insight into consumer understanding and supports our belief that consumers were not misled by the information we shared in these two specific adverts.”



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Gen Z pros embrace ‘portfolio careers’ as side hustles surge – The Times of India

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Gen Z pros embrace ‘portfolio careers’ as side hustles surge – The Times of India


BENGALURU: India’s Gen Z workforce is embracing what experts describe as “portfolio careers” – balancing multiple professional identities and income streams simultaneously. New research from LinkedIn shows that 75% of Gen Z entrepreneurs in India now manage multiple income streams, significantly higher than the 62% among Gen X entrepreneurs. The findings point to a growing preference among younger professionals for flexibility, autonomy and diversified sources of income. “We’re also seeing the rise of the ‘portfolio era’, with more professionals creating multiple income streams and redefining what a career can look like. This shift is making entrepreneurship more accessible than ever before,” said LinkedIn India country manager Kumaresh Pattabiraman.Rather than depending on a single full-time role, many professionals are simultaneously building businesses, freelancing, consulting, creating online content and monetising specialised skills through digital platforms. The trend comes amid a broader rise in entrepreneurial activity in India. LinkedIn recorded a 104% year-on-year increase in members adding “Founder” to their profiles – the highest growth among all global markets.AI is also emerging as a major enabler of this shift. The report found that 85% of Gen Z entrepreneurs consider AI and digital tools important to their business operations.



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Elon Musk said control of OpenAI should go to his children, Sam Altman tells jury

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Elon Musk said control of OpenAI should go to his children, Sam Altman tells jury



Sam Altman said Elon Musk tried many times for total control of OpenAI, which he’s now suing.



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